Discussion 2023 Round 4: Teams & In Game Discussion

[Under The Dome]

Just noticed Daicos had 16 CP's and De Goey (13) was the only other one above 8 for the Magpies.

Robertson also followed up his 0 last week with -1 this week.

 

[Tails]

Anyone see the McKenna on Hill incident? Was there much in it to warrant a suspension?

Must have missed it ... didn't see any replays ..

 

[Rowsus]

Just noticed Daicos had 16 CP's and De Goey (13) was the only other one above 8 for the Magpies.

Robertson also followed up his 0 last week with -1 this week.

Not that he's SC relevant, unless Bris are beset of WC like injuries ......
D Robertson - M - 259,900 BE 126
23, 0, DNP, -1
=> $204,000 BE 119

 

[toxic]

Best case he gets 1 tonight, 1 in R3 (0 more likely), 3 in R2 and 2 in R1, for a total of 7 votes in 4 games. A good start for sure, but certainly not outright favourite material. Cripps and Oliver would be on a similar total after only 3 games and that's without taking the best case scenario. I think the punters are getting a bit too caught up in the Daicos hype.

Who gets thev3,2,1 if Naicos doesn't poll

 

[mike89]

Who gets thev3,2,1 if Naicos doesn't poll

I think he gets 1 - Rayner, Cameron, Daicos for me. Could make a case for Mcinerney though, even if against no opposition.

 

[toxic]

I think he gets 1 - Rayner, Cameron, Daicos for me. Could make a case for Mcinerney though, even if against no opposition.

I think he gets 2

But I could make a case for
Rayner
McInerney
Daniher
Charlie

 

[baz_machine]

N Daicos - $547,300 - BE 56
=> $589,100 BE 82

I am starting to think, if he keeps going, do you sideways him to Oliver / Laird / Neale.

Surely coaches start to tag him. Surely.

 

[Uncle Drew]

Who gets thev3,2,1 if Naicos doesn't poll

Not sure which game you are referring to, but Rayner and Cameron have to poll 3 and 2 last night. De Goey gets 3 in R1, and in R3 there was about half a dozen better than Daicos, but could see him pinching 1, just because he's noticeable.

 

[toxic]

Not sure which game you are referring to, but Rayner and Cameron have to poll 3 and 2 last night. De Goey gets 3 in R1, and in R3 there was about half a dozen better than Daicos, but could see him pinching 1, just because he's noticeable.

Last night's game

 

[Uncle Drew]

My count, prior to tonight:

View attachment 55218

100% agree with the votes for your top few, but I think that's the absolute worst case for Oliver and Cripps. I have Cripps as most likely for 3 votes in R1. Also reckon he's a chance to sneak a vote in R2. Oliver is likely to feature in the votes in R1, and had 37 touches in R2, so I'm expecting him to snag a vote or 2 despite the loss. But everyone sees it differently so who knows.

I'm Interested to know who you have getting the votes over Oliver and Cripps in the first 2 rounds. Also is this something you do every year, and if so have you had much success guessing right?

 

[Uncle Drew]

Last night's game

Well if they dont give the 3 and 2 votes to Cameorn and Rayner for their goal hauls in a comfortable Brisbane win, then they shouldn't be handing out votes (there's probably a good argument for this regardless). Daicos gets 1 for mine.

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

100% agree with the votes for your top few, but I think that's the absolute worst case for Oliver and Cripps. I have Cripps as most likely for 3 votes in R1. Also reckon he's a chance to sneak a vote in R2. Oliver is likely to feature in the votes in R1, and had 37 touches in R2, so I'm expecting him to snag a vote or 2 despite the loss. But everyone sees it differently so who knows.

I'm Interested to know who you have getting the votes over Oliver and Cripps in the first 2 rounds. Also is this something you do every year, and if so have you had much success guessing right?

yeah I’ve been doing it since 2007. I generally get most players tally right within 2-3 votes, it’s methodical based on data inputs, both raw stats but then also secondary data sources such as coaches votes, other voting/opinions etc. I update the formula each year and I generally see improved performance over time. I don’t put my own opinion on an individual game at all, i struggle to make value judgements generally and so build formulas to work out what I think is ‘good’ (this goes beyond footy, into music and all sorts of other). Plus side is I’ve become an excel guru on the back of it which has helped career wise…but I digress

To answer your question about Oliver / Cripps in rounds 1 and 2:

Carlton v Richmond
3 - Daniel Rioli
2 - Tim Taranto
1 - Lewis Young
Cripps? 8th best (very unlikely)

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
3 - Kozzy Pickett
2 - Max Gawn
1 - Jake Lever
Oliver? next best (reasonable chance for 1 vote)

Melbourne v Brisbane
3 - Dayne Zorko
2 - Will Ashcroft
1 - Josh Dunkley
Oliver? 5th best (chance to sneak 1)

Carlton v Geelong
3 - Jeremy Cameron
2 - Charlie Curnow
1 - Adam Saad
Cripps? 10th best (very unlikely)

 

[jarrad_]

Wonder how many points Daicos got for that dive it was a beauty 10/10 easily

 

[donnybuang]

Collingwood really missed having a ruckman, not sure how they are going to solve this in the coming weeks?

Maybe they send their mum around to Godwin's house to ask if they can have their Grundy back

 

[Ginty22]

Im so glad I bit the bullet and got daicos after round 2 after accepting that a 2nd year player can do what he’s doing.
Truly a marvel and glad not having him is a headache I don’t have to deal with

 

[kadog]

Naicos vc nailed.

Privileged to watch many goats in their respective sport in my era. Barry Sanders, Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, Lionel Messi (to name a few) and in our own yard I’m watching the son of my favorite all time player Peter Daicos unfold. Warms my heart.

If there is a better description above elite, then this kid is it. Legit. He’s not even near his peak. Scary. Good 😊

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

Naicos vc nailed.

Privileged to watch many goats in their respective sport in my era. Barry Sanders, Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, Lionel Messi (to name a few) and in our own yard I’m watching the son of my favorite all time player Peter Daicos unfold. Warms my heart.

If there is a better description above elite, then this kid is it. Legit. He’s not even near his peak. Scary. Good 😊

the current trajectory he’s on (and it’s only a year and 4 games), but he is shaping up to be the best player of the afl era

 

[Toothless Tigers]

the current trajectory he’s on (and it’s only a year and 4 games), but he is shaping up to be the best player of the afl era

https://www.afl.com.au/news/521179/norm-smith-medal

 

[Uncle Drew]

yeah I’ve been doing it since 2007. I generally get most players tally right within 2-3 votes, it’s methodical based on data inputs, both raw stats but then also secondary data sources such as coaches votes, other voting/opinions etc. I update the formula each year and I generally see improved performance over time. I don’t put my own opinion on an individual game at all, i struggle to make value judgements generally and so build formulas to work out what I think is ‘good’ (this goes beyond footy, into music and all sorts of other). Plus side is I’ve become an excel guru on the back of it which has helped career wise…but I digress

To answer your question about Oliver / Cripps in rounds 1 and 2:

Carlton v Richmond
3 - Daniel Rioli
2 - Tim Taranto
1 - Lewis Young
Cripps? 8th best (very unlikely)

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
3 - Kozzy Pickett
2 - Max Gawn
1 - Jake Lever
Oliver? next best (reasonable chance for 1 vote)

Melbourne v Brisbane
3 - Dayne Zorko
2 - Will Ashcroft
1 - Josh Dunkley
Oliver? 5th best (chance to sneak 1)

Carlton v Geelong
3 - Jeremy Cameron
2 - Charlie Curnow
1 - Adam Saad
Cripps? 10th best (very unlikely)

Thanks for sharing, that's seriously impressive. Puts my guesses based on personal opinion/basic stats to shame .

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/521179/norm-smith-medal

Long way to go to catch dusty and gaz and buddy…but the potential is there!