Strategy 2023: Round 6 Trades

[The Experiment]

These comments are predicated on Ginbey not missing more than one game with whatever he picked up yesterday/being rested.


while on face value the decision to trade out ginbey and potentially Mackenzie too this week, appears an easy one given their high break evens and stalled cash making, every year there are a couple of rookies who have a down game and come back strong to restart their cash generation. I just think given the quality of these two kids in particular and their importance in a developing team, they may be two such players to do this.

I think maybe just worthwhile considering this before making a call on them and taking a longer term view with them as I don’t think they are your average rookie, Ginbey especially looks like he’s got some big consistent scoring in him.

 

[Santoz]

Round 6.
OUT: Ginbey & Chandler
IN: Sinclair & Williams

Round 7.
OUT: Ashcroft & Baker/Mackenzie
IN: Day & S.Mitchell/rookie

 

[couchPOTATO]

It's weird, some have, but some haven't. For example, I can see Dawson & Wilmot now D/M, but Sheezel & Ziebell still FWD only.

(EDIT, just refreshed, and now Ziebell & Sheezel are F/D)

It looks like they some have been done, Wilmont was not DEF/MID before, but if you view his profile he is now showing DEF/MID, however no change for Ziebell and Sheezel yet 😉.

Edit: Ziebell and Sheezel have now also been charged 🙂

Thanks

 

[7/11]

These comments are predicated on Ginbey not missing more than one game with whatever he picked up yesterday/being rested.


while on face value the decision to trade out ginbey and potentially Mackenzie too this week, appears an easy one given their high break evens and stalled cash making, every year there are a couple of rookies who have a down game and come back strong to restart their cash generation. I just think given the quality of these two kids in particular and their importance in a developing team, they may be two such players to do this.

I think maybe just worthwhile considering this before making a call on them and taking a longer term view with them as I don’t think they are your average rookie, Ginbey especially looks like he’s got some big consistent scoring in him.

My problem with this is that he’s struggled (I understand he was subbed yesterday) against the stronger teams (Melbourne and Geelong). He did well against 3 of the bottom 5-6 teams at the moment in GWS, North and Fremantle.

He does have a favourable draw from rounds 9-11, but he has Port this week, Carlton and then Richmond who could touch West Coast up well and truly. Does he leak cash over those 3 weeks with 40-65 point scores before he kickstarts it again?

If you’re playing for leagues, sure you can probably afford to hold onto him, but those trying to scale the ranks need those upgrades thick and fast and will be looking for the opportunities to do so. I could upgrade Ashcroft over Ginbey, but feel the former’s floor is better than Ginbey at this point (despite the role not being quite as strong).

 

[Spifflicator]

Obviously Bruce needs to go, and Mackenzie isn't making money for a few weeks, so Bruce down to SMitch, and Mackenzie up to Heeney or Hawkins after their massive price drops. Following the buy low principal when theres stuff all cash around seems sensible.

So Bruce/Mackenzie>Smitch/Heeney

 

[Locky27]

Out: McKenzie, Ginbey, Ashcroft
In: Roberts, Williams, Neale

However, I'm wondering is it better to pay top dollar for a Neale, or go for someone whose price has bottomed out?

 

[quite ironic]

Baker -> Johnson/Williams/Roberts
Ginbey -> Neale/Laird/Touk

Probably leaning Roberts & Touk.

Alterantively considering just:

Ginbey -> Cogs/Ziebell.

If i do option 1 team looks like this:

 

[AngryAnt]

Thinking of Cowan/Ginbey/Chandler to Roberts/Johnson/Laird. Chandler still has more money to make but would prefer Roberts at F6 plus Laird comes in for a rookie. Ginbey is another one that might be traded out prematurely but still have enough money makers in Greene/Phillips/Hollands/Ashcroft/McKenna and mid pricers Hopper/Setterfield (who I would prefer to keep this week if Merrett is out).

 

[XabiFernando]

Think if caminiti cops a couple of weeks which seems likely he'd be the first trade out for those that have him despite the achievable breakeven

 

[Ormos]

Currently -
Ginbey/Baker/Callaghan - Roberts/Williams/Cogs

Baker to roberts is just banking cash for next week (Likely Cowan to Day) but but hugely excited by the pick

 

[Wheedus]

SMitch with DEF/FWD status is an excellent option to create the link with Sheezel and Ziebel

 

[NDD]

Around $7.50 for 500g at Coles, but depends on what brand you get.

quick lol

 

[xanderdom]

I've processed and will sit on Mackenzie/Sicily > Touk/Roberts via Ziebell DPP until teams are announced. I'm left with $78k ITB after this.

I hate the thought of dropping Sicily now and bringing him back in by round 10-12 when he gets to $480k. But that's just it really, sell high, cause i have zero confidence in him hitting his BE moving forward.

What's everyone's take on Roberts and why is he so popular? I've missed a lot of the discourse here around him, his cash gen doesn't look as enticing as say Dylan Williams or even Seamus Mitchell whom I'd wait a week on regardless. How confident is everyone in his role?

 

[madmunza]

Think if caminiti cops a couple of weeks which seems likely he'd be the first trade out for those that have him despite the achievable breakeven

Not for me will make a good F6 loop, more cash to be made when he comes back.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Honestly no idea for this week's trades.

Having all 3 of Davey / Bytel / Constable on my bench feels a problem so likely to move one to Roberts / Johnson but not certain on their JS either. Mackenzie and Baker will make more cash but I'm ok with selling one for a quick cash grab.

Only way I can pull a Touk upgrade is via Setterfield but I'm unsure if it's too early. Boosting Setters > Touk feels kinda meh?

 

[baz_machine]

it's always an interesting one about when to cash out a rookie and when to keep as you have to balance

1/ are they playing on field?
2/ what's their potential ceiling?
3/ which rookie is their potential replacement? do they have good JS / scoring potential?
4/ who are you upgrading to?

looking at last years winner, he nailed basically all the upgrades. meant that it didn't matter if you didn't time the rookie cutting just right, if you got a superstar on the down turn.

for example, cashing in mackenzie for say wines*; if wines goes back to a 105 ppg player, then any money that you have left on the table for mackenzie you get back from wines increasing plus all the points he scores.

* i'm just using wines as an example

 

[baz_machine]

for example, i'm debating if i use a boost to trade Cowan > Johnson (FRE). Neither will likely play on field.
Cowan, will probably get to $250 k - $275 k at some stage, eventually. But at the moment, he is ~$200k.
Johnson is now ~$140k, so the trade will net me $60 k (so not worth the trade) but i think Johnson has far more potential to hit $300 k - $350 k, which is likely $100 k more than Cowan, plus I get the $60k for a potential upgrade next week.

 

[frosty1]

I have a bit of a cash gen problem, so likely a triple "down" this week.

Cole/Goater/Baker (pending selection) out

Williams/Roberts in then the 3rd becomes the question.

I can borderline get to someone like Luke Jackson who would be a theoretical F keeper. Below that I'd be looking at Day, Wines, Hawkins. Not much that really appeals as "keeper". As such I look at trying to get more cash. Sorting by expected change (at prices <350k) gives me Chayce Jones, Luke Edwards, Johannisen, Hill, Phillips, Michelanney.

Edwards the only one of those <200k, Phillips the next cheapest but with F/M swing.

It seems going very late on Phillips, but he also feels like he could spike a tin at some point. I think Edwards is a 60-70 every week but unlikely to spike.

At the moment I'm leaning Phillips, but not convinced that 3rd Baker->Phillips gives me much, whereas at least Baker->Edwards nets me 60k immediately....

 

[frosty1]

I have a bit of a cash gen problem, so likely a triple "down" this week.

Cole/Goater/Baker (pending selection) out

Williams/Roberts in then the 3rd becomes the question.

I can borderline get to someone like Luke Jackson who would be a theoretical F keeper. Below that I'd be looking at Day, Wines, Hawkins. Not much that really appeals as "keeper". As such I look at trying to get more cash. Sorting by expected change (at prices <350k) gives me Chayce Jones, Luke Edwards, Johannisen, Hill, Phillips, Michelanney.

Edwards the only one of those <200k, Phillips the next cheapest but with F/M swing.

It seems going very late on Phillips, but he also feels like he could spike a tin at some point. I think Edwards is a 60-70 every week but unlikely to spike.

At the moment I'm leaning Phillips, but not convinced that 3rd Baker->Phillips gives me much, whereas at least Baker->Edwards nets me 60k immediately....

Note trying really hard to avoid going to faux keepers just because of FOMO about upgrade season...

 

[eekraN]

Even with Sheezel and Ziebell gaining DEF status, I am inclined to leave them forward (but open the link with Mitchell next week). The defender premiums appear to be averaging higher than the forwards (from a depth perspective) so targeting defender upgrades is a priority (for me).

This week it comes down to whether I want to upgrade Backs or Mids.

Ginbey is out and probably Baker for Roberts and Jonhson. Then upgrades I am thinking either Lloyd (defence) and Bont/Touk/Laird (mids). Brayshaw almost going to be a straught swap for Setters/Worpel/Hopper soon.