Strategy 2023: Round 6 Trades
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Yeah personally I don't see much difference between Tom Green and the Serong, Libba, De Goey, Pendles, Merrett, Macrae & Steele (coming back from a nasty shoulder) types right now. Certainly not enough of a difference to justify a trade.
Green is definitely below the Big 5 you listed, but the fact there is still a lack of a standout M6-M8 tells me he is still well and truly in the mix for top 8.
Green is definitely below the Big 5 you listed, but the fact there is still a lack of a standout M6-M8 tells me he is still well and truly in the mix for top 8.
If you started or traded the below in early, then you're obviously going great. However, the list is only a snapshot of the 'wish list' up to Round 5, what happens from hereon is yet to take place. The top averaging players will interchange from round to round due to low & spike score, injury affected score, tag, missed games, etc. History has shown us that there are always a group of players who'll have a 'hot streak' through a season, sometime early/middle/later, the trick (leap of faith) is to jump on & off at the appropriate time. Generally, it's only the Uber Premiums with a solid history who are able to maintain any 'hot' start, even then they will tend to regress from anything above 130.
As an example: Will Daicos maintain his current 133 average...? History would say that he's less likely to do so, particularly as a 2nd year player. A 120 season is not out of the question from hereon but probably a 110-115 is more within the range. He's currently priced at approximately 122 which will likely be more 126 after Round 6.
If he plays all 23 games and end with a season average of 120, then he's going at 116 from hereon. He will only be scoring at an average of 110 from hereon if he was to end the season with a 115 average!
Another way of looking at it is that in order to get what you pay for this round, that is, you're paying for a 122 player, then he needs to go at 119 for the remainder of the season.
Let's apply the same logic to Dawson who seems to be on every coaches wish list. His currently priced to average approximately 131, that's what you're paying for him!
In order to get return for what you paid for (a 131 average), he needs to go at 132 from hereon; 118 for a season average of 120; 105 for a season average of 110.
At the end of the day, the FOMO phenomenon is siginificantly elevated, especially around this phase of a season. Those that buy on impulse will generally hit a wall later down the line or find themselves forced into lower end players to complete their team. Others who practice prudence, diligence & patience when buying will more than likely end up with a completed team that will be competitive during the latter stages of the season.
Know what you're buying & paying, set realistic expectations on your targetted players (yes you may move them up after 5 rounds but within reason), assess how each and every upgrade affects your team from a scoring and team balance POV. It's not all about ticking off this week's upgrade, but you have to plan on the next series of upgrades towards completing your team. Focus on removing those area of weak on-field Rookie scoring, be it D6, M8 or F6 and work up from there.
By applying some common sense and logic, you'll hopefully prevent your team from hitting that wall and enjoy the process of bringing your team to completion. More importantly, be happy that you've ended up with a competitive team for the run home.
As an example: Will Daicos maintain his current 133 average...? History would say that he's less likely to do so, particularly as a 2nd year player. A 120 season is not out of the question from hereon but probably a 110-115 is more within the range. He's currently priced at approximately 122 which will likely be more 126 after Round 6.
If he plays all 23 games and end with a season average of 120, then he's going at 116 from hereon. He will only be scoring at an average of 110 from hereon if he was to end the season with a 115 average!
Another way of looking at it is that in order to get what you pay for this round, that is, you're paying for a 122 player, then he needs to go at 119 for the remainder of the season.
Let's apply the same logic to Dawson who seems to be on every coaches wish list. His currently priced to average approximately 131, that's what you're paying for him!
In order to get return for what you paid for (a 131 average), he needs to go at 132 from hereon; 118 for a season average of 120; 105 for a season average of 110.
At the end of the day, the FOMO phenomenon is siginificantly elevated, especially around this phase of a season. Those that buy on impulse will generally hit a wall later down the line or find themselves forced into lower end players to complete their team. Others who practice prudence, diligence & patience when buying will more than likely end up with a completed team that will be competitive during the latter stages of the season.
Know what you're buying & paying, set realistic expectations on your targetted players (yes you may move them up after 5 rounds but within reason), assess how each and every upgrade affects your team from a scoring and team balance POV. It's not all about ticking off this week's upgrade, but you have to plan on the next series of upgrades towards completing your team. Focus on removing those area of weak on-field Rookie scoring, be it D6, M8 or F6 and work up from there.
By applying some common sense and logic, you'll hopefully prevent your team from hitting that wall and enjoy the process of bringing your team to completion. More importantly, be happy that you've ended up with a competitive team for the run home.
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I really like the pick personally. You are getting him at hugely discounted price, despite the two recent tons and he should comfortably average in the mid 90's from here if not over the 100 mark. Arguably the bargain player of the round IMO.
That said currently Bont is my 1 upgrade this round, as I am quite well off for forwards, but I can see him being a top 8 forward from here.
That said currently Bont is my 1 upgrade this round, as I am quite well off for forwards, but I can see him being a top 8 forward from here.
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I'm hovering around Hawkins. I can get Cogs and Touk in 3 trades or Cogs and Hawk in 2. He's super cheap but I'm really trying to rid my team of these types and not trade them in. I'm so far back now and used so many trades I really need to just get as many of the true premiums in whilst I can and Touk is one. I know it uses an extra trade but over the last few weeks I'm much happier bringing in guys like Dawson/Stewart where they're really next level guys from those D4-6 types IMO.
I can see I'll have a Setterfield/Hopper type stay in my team though as a M8 type this year.
Here I was complaining about too many trades before the season started and not knowing what to do with them
I can see I'll have a Setterfield/Hopper type stay in my team though as a M8 type this year.
Here I was complaining about too many trades before the season started and not knowing what to do with them
Hawkins is nearly 35 and has had two (2) seasons averaging at forward keeper levels. He is priced near enough to his historical average. If you want to gamble on a short-term purple patch for quick $ and points he's not a bad option, but there is so much (surprisingly consistent) history to go on that you surely don't need to spend too much time trying to work out if he's a good option as a sesaon-long keeper.
Dont really understand the logic on punting on a 35 year old key forward coming off no pre season when theres two quality mid options for 50K more but wish people well that take the risk.
Geelong dont have to grind Hawkins into the ground anymore, be very surprised if he plays every game from here as a supporter.
Geelong dont have to grind Hawkins into the ground anymore, be very surprised if he plays every game from here as a supporter.
Truth be told, I was on this trip for the best part of the week. Probably comes with a bit of personal bias as I've own him for a couple of those 'hot' streaks. Upon further reflection, even though my intention at the time was exactly what you've quoted, 'catch his purple patch and cash out', it never panned out like I had planned and he ended up staying the course in my team, and not by choice.
The theory and plan is okay but I've learnt through 'hard' experience over the years that this type of decision is better left for the start of a season. I'm known to be quite stubborn at the best of times and I still fall for these traps every now and then, however, I can see them more clearly now which hopefully will prevent me from going back to that well.
I've convinced myself that boosting for Miller is a much better outcome in this scenario!
The theory and plan is okay but I've learnt through 'hard' experience over the years that this type of decision is better left for the start of a season. I'm known to be quite stubborn at the best of times and I still fall for these traps every now and then, however, I can see them more clearly now which hopefully will prevent me from going back to that well.
I've convinced myself that boosting for Miller is a much better outcome in this scenario!
