Opinion 100+ Season Players Sorted By Age
- Thread starter Rowsus
- Start date
Love your work Rowsus. I think they shall call this your magnum opus!
I am intrigued by the pink zone scoring (130+). Excluding Danger, I counted 7 players in your list who made 130 at least once. Almost all of them fell back to earth the next season. Only God (who else!) could back up in the pink zone.
Maybe we should rename it the Icarus range. One season in that range and your follow up scores will plunge? Good luck Danger!
I am intrigued by the pink zone scoring (130+). Excluding Danger, I counted 7 players in your list who made 130 at least once. Almost all of them fell back to earth the next season. Only God (who else!) could back up in the pink zone.
Maybe we should rename it the Icarus range. One season in that range and your follow up scores will plunge? Good luck Danger!
Thanks Savvy 
Just like Icarus, the higher they fly, the harder they fall.
Interestingly, 130 isn't the main tipping point of "no return", 120 is that point.
Firstly let's look at the 130's, as you mentioned there are 8.
Player - age/ave/ave next season:
Ablett - 23/132/140, 24/140/130, 27/138/129, 29/137/116
Brown J - 24/141/111
Dangerfield - 25/132/???
Goddard - 24/130/108
Hall B - 28/132/118
Hodge - 20/135/104
Judd - 22/132/106
Rockliff - 24/132/102
Some observations:
The ages between, and including, 22 to 25 seem to be the age a player will break into this zone. 7 out of 8 were in this age range, and the 8th player (B Hall) never had the opportunity to do it earlier.
Looking at the the drops in the season after (Ablett in red): +8, -10, -9, -21, -30, -??, -22, -14, -31, -26, -30
That's an average drop off of 18.5 after they've recorded a 130+ season. That rises to an average drop off of 25.5 excluding Ablett, who is nearly the exception to all things SuperCoach, statistically.
As to the 120 tipping point. There are 26 players that have gone above the 120 season average at some stage of their career. None of them have ever returned to the 120+ area again, once dipping below it! I believe it is only a matter of time until someone achieves this feat, but when 25 out of 26 have failed to do it (Dangerfield hasn't had the chance to do it yet), then it is something of which, we should take note.
Just like Icarus, the higher they fly, the harder they fall.
Interestingly, 130 isn't the main tipping point of "no return", 120 is that point.
Firstly let's look at the 130's, as you mentioned there are 8.
Player - age/ave/ave next season:
Ablett - 23/132/140, 24/140/130, 27/138/129, 29/137/116
Brown J - 24/141/111
Dangerfield - 25/132/???
Goddard - 24/130/108
Hall B - 28/132/118
Hodge - 20/135/104
Judd - 22/132/106
Rockliff - 24/132/102
Some observations:
The ages between, and including, 22 to 25 seem to be the age a player will break into this zone. 7 out of 8 were in this age range, and the 8th player (B Hall) never had the opportunity to do it earlier.
Looking at the the drops in the season after (Ablett in red): +8, -10, -9, -21, -30, -??, -22, -14, -31, -26, -30
That's an average drop off of 18.5 after they've recorded a 130+ season. That rises to an average drop off of 25.5 excluding Ablett, who is nearly the exception to all things SuperCoach, statistically.
As to the 120 tipping point. There are 26 players that have gone above the 120 season average at some stage of their career. None of them have ever returned to the 120+ area again, once dipping below it! I believe it is only a matter of time until someone achieves this feat, but when 25 out of 26 have failed to do it (Dangerfield hasn't had the chance to do it yet), then it is something of which, we should take note.
Thanks Savvy
Just like Icarus, the higher they fly, the harder they fall.
Interestingly, 130 isn't the main tipping point of "no return", 120 is that point.
Firstly let's look at the 130's, as you mentioned there are 8.
Player - age/ave/ave next season:
Ablett - 23/132/140, 24/140/130, 27/138/129, 29/137/116
Brown J - 24/141/111
Dangerfield - 25/132/???
Goddard - 24/130/108
Hall B - 28/132/118
Hodge - 20/135/104
Judd - 22/132/106
Rockliff - 24/132/102
Some observations:
The ages between, and including, 22 to 25 seem to be the age a player will break into this zone. 7 out of 8 were in this age range, and the 8th player (B Hall) never had the opportunity to do it earlier.
Looking at the the drops in the season after (Ablett in red): +8, -10, -9, -21, -30, -??, -22, -14, -31, -26, -30
That's an average drop off of 18.5 after they've recorded a 130+ season. That rises to an average drop off of 25.5 excluding Ablett, who is nearly the exception to all things SuperCoach, statistically.
As to the 120 tipping point. There are 26 players that have gone above the 120 season average at some stage of their career. None of them have ever returned to the 120+ area again, once dipping below it! I believe it is only a matter of time until someone achieves this feat, but when 25 out of 26 have failed to do it (Dangerfield hasn't had the chance to do it yet), then it is something of which, we should take note.
Just like Icarus, the higher they fly, the harder they fall.
Interestingly, 130 isn't the main tipping point of "no return", 120 is that point.
Firstly let's look at the 130's, as you mentioned there are 8.
Player - age/ave/ave next season:
Ablett - 23/132/140, 24/140/130, 27/138/129, 29/137/116
Brown J - 24/141/111
Dangerfield - 25/132/???
Goddard - 24/130/108
Hall B - 28/132/118
Hodge - 20/135/104
Judd - 22/132/106
Rockliff - 24/132/102
Some observations:
The ages between, and including, 22 to 25 seem to be the age a player will break into this zone. 7 out of 8 were in this age range, and the 8th player (B Hall) never had the opportunity to do it earlier.
Looking at the the drops in the season after (Ablett in red): +8, -10, -9, -21, -30, -??, -22, -14, -31, -26, -30
That's an average drop off of 18.5 after they've recorded a 130+ season. That rises to an average drop off of 25.5 excluding Ablett, who is nearly the exception to all things SuperCoach, statistically.
As to the 120 tipping point. There are 26 players that have gone above the 120 season average at some stage of their career. None of them have ever returned to the 120+ area again, once dipping below it! I believe it is only a matter of time until someone achieves this feat, but when 25 out of 26 have failed to do it (Dangerfield hasn't had the chance to do it yet), then it is something of which, we should take note.
Excellent work again too Rowsus, thanks!
"As to the 120 tipping point. There are 26 players that have gone above the 120 season average at some stage of their career. None of them have ever returned to the 120+ area again, once dipping below it! I believe it is only a matter of time until someone achieves this feat, but when 25 out of 26 have failed to do it (Dangerfield hasn't had the chance to do it yet), then it is something of which, we should take note."
If I am reading this correctly Rowsus, does this suggest the data suggest Fyfe is unlikely to regain the 120 level OR should we make an exception for his injury ruined five game 2016 season?
If I am reading this correctly Rowsus, does this suggest the data suggest Fyfe is unlikely to regain the 120 level OR should we make an exception for his injury ruined five game 2016 season?
I think Fyfe has a bit of a double whammy on him.
WhileI'm not precluding him from reaching 120+ again, I'm sure there will be coaches out there that have him pegged as a certainty to get to 20+ games and 120+. He might do it, but the odds would appear to be against him achieving that.
He can still be a good buy, at his expected price, but I think the old rule of having reasonable expectations applies here.
WhileI'm not precluding him from reaching 120+ again, I'm sure there will be coaches out there that have him pegged as a certainty to get to 20+ games and 120+. He might do it, but the odds would appear to be against him achieving that.
He can still be a good buy, at his expected price, but I think the old rule of having reasonable expectations applies here.
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Shouldn't we apply this to all players we pick???
I know i do, id expect Nat maybe to av 110-115 from 20 games at a max and if he got more than that id be stoked
People get carried away expecting him to av 125+ when in reality there was only 1 player go 125+ (danger) last year and 2 more 115+ (pendles+gawn)
OVER-EXPECTATION will derail your sc season pretty quickly, and i have been guilty of this also but this season will be going in with very little expectation hoping for overall greatness secretly.
I know i do, id expect Nat maybe to av 110-115 from 20 games at a max and if he got more than that id be stoked
People get carried away expecting him to av 125+ when in reality there was only 1 player go 125+ (danger) last year and 2 more 115+ (pendles+gawn)
OVER-EXPECTATION will derail your sc season pretty quickly, and i have been guilty of this also but this season will be going in with very little expectation hoping for overall greatness secretly.
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I am just trying to keep this brilliant thread on the first page as I find I am constantly referring to it as I slowly try and reduce my initial planning squad to 30!
I am finding it very handy for searching for similar scoring patterns for comparing players at a similar age. It also take comfort that age is not necessarily a barrier for putting in a career best performance in the backline!
I am finding it very handy for searching for similar scoring patterns for comparing players at a similar age. It also take comfort that age is not necessarily a barrier for putting in a career best performance in the backline!
Can't believe I have just come across this amazing thread - Thanks Rowsus! So easy to just scan through players and look for trends. I like threads like this to just think about my "gut" on players and look for patterns without getting caught up in what must happen due to statistics. Some thoughts for me here....
I want to start 8 mids LOL so many are SOOOO good!
Danger could be as good as Gary (without the premierships as he should have stayed at the crows for that)
Treloar, Martin, Hannebery, Heppell all look in the sweet spot.
Kennedy, Pendles just guns
Fyfe and Rocky = Risk/Reward
Bont is out on his own at his age....do we back him in to join that special few like Gary and Danger who do something special. Hard not to put him in if I'm honest.
Tom Mitchell stands out for me as the potential break out mid (new club, more mid time - 2x seasons of 104 and ready to go into the "yellow" category. But the way he butchers the ball is just putting me off a bit...Lockiest of locks in the DT forms of the game.
Answer for me...they are all awesome so go the ones best for your structure and don't pick players that don't have a good pre season! (eg me with pendles, ablett, rocky and fyfe last year!!!
I want to start 8 mids LOL so many are SOOOO good!
Danger could be as good as Gary (without the premierships as he should have stayed at the crows for that
)Treloar, Martin, Hannebery, Heppell all look in the sweet spot.
Kennedy, Pendles just guns
Fyfe and Rocky = Risk/Reward
Bont is out on his own at his age....do we back him in to join that special few like Gary and Danger who do something special. Hard not to put him in if I'm honest.
Tom Mitchell stands out for me as the potential break out mid (new club, more mid time - 2x seasons of 104 and ready to go into the "yellow" category. But the way he butchers the ball is just putting me off a bit...Lockiest of locks in the DT forms of the game.
Answer for me...they are all awesome so go the ones best for your structure and don't pick players that don't have a good pre season! (eg me with pendles, ablett, rocky and fyfe last year!!!
2005 - 26yo 21/124.3
2006 - 27yo 18/106.6
2007 - 28yo 6/104.7
2009 - 30yo 15/91.3
2010 - 31yo 17/81.6
No excuse for missing him. The reason might be, that the site I used to collect 98% of the information would have us think Ben Cousins was never born. That's no excuse though, fancy missing a Brownlow medalist! I guess we should never take these things tooserious!
2006 - 27yo 18/106.6
2007 - 28yo 6/104.7
2009 - 30yo 15/91.3
2010 - 31yo 17/81.6
No excuse for missing him. The reason might be, that the site I used to collect 98% of the information would have us think Ben Cousins was never born. That's no excuse though, fancy missing a Brownlow medalist! I guess we should never take these things tooserious!