2014: The Race for the Overall Prize - Top 10 Analysis (updated pg9)
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[TABLE="class: grid, width: 457, align: left"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Out[/TD]
[TD]In[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TORRENTIAL RAINES[/TD]
[TD]None[/TD]
[TD]None[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OH KILL EM[/TD]
[TD]None[/TD]
[TD]None[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-MONEY[/TD]
[TD]O'Brien, Shenton, Higgins[/TD]
[TD]Miles. Brown, Buddy[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BIGJENNYTALIA FFC[/TD]
[TD]Higgins[/TD]
[TD]Zorko[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]STEAKANDCHOPSTICKS[/TD]
[TD]Langford, Ambrose[/TD]
[TD]Honeychurch, NDS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]THE WALKING DEAD[/TD]
[TD]Derickx, Zorko[/TD]
[TD]Brown, Boomer[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LOB CITY[/TD]
[TD]Burgoyne[/TD]
[TD]Malceski[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SLOBS[/TD]
[TD]Langdon, Langford[/TD]
[TD]Jaensch, JPK[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RESIDENT EVILS[/TD]
[TD]??[/TD]
[TD]??[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BEST SINCE DAY ONE[/TD]
[TD]Derickx, Zmerrett[/TD]
[TD]Smith. Buddy[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Out of curiosity, how many trades are we expecting these guys to have at the moment? Bit of sideways trading going on which suggests they're comfortable with the amount they have.
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Out[/TD]
[TD]In[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TORRENTIAL RAINES[/TD]
[TD]None[/TD]
[TD]None[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OH KILL EM[/TD]
[TD]None[/TD]
[TD]None[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-MONEY[/TD]
[TD]O'Brien, Shenton, Higgins[/TD]
[TD]Miles. Brown, Buddy[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BIGJENNYTALIA FFC[/TD]
[TD]Higgins[/TD]
[TD]Zorko[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]STEAKANDCHOPSTICKS[/TD]
[TD]Langford, Ambrose[/TD]
[TD]Honeychurch, NDS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]THE WALKING DEAD[/TD]
[TD]Derickx, Zorko[/TD]
[TD]Brown, Boomer[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LOB CITY[/TD]
[TD]Burgoyne[/TD]
[TD]Malceski[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SLOBS[/TD]
[TD]Langdon, Langford[/TD]
[TD]Jaensch, JPK[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RESIDENT EVILS[/TD]
[TD]??[/TD]
[TD]??[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BEST SINCE DAY ONE[/TD]
[TD]Derickx, Zmerrett[/TD]
[TD]Smith. Buddy[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Out of curiosity, how many trades are we expecting these guys to have at the moment? Bit of sideways trading going on which suggests they're comfortable with the amount they have.
Last edited:
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Expecting about 4 to 6. Some less, maybe one more....he he he.. That would scare the others if one of them had 7 left. In all honesty doubt it but not impossible. Hard to know unless followed their trades all season. Those in the running would be most likely to have done a bit of research so will probably know what their opposing coaches have left within 1 trade of being correct guessing.
If you can get to 2nd place through sound measures, then it is not yet the time to execute non-essential sideways trades of elite players and risky calls as 1st place is only 50 points away (unless you have 5+ trades and a full team - in that instance, trade away).
All of the top 10 have more serious weaknesses than having Beams atm.
Eg. D6 vs S Mitchell upon return...that is a guaranteed 15-20ppg if Mitchell is healthy. 1st place Torrential Raines is running Grimes and Langdon through D6...that is currently earning 80-85ppg at the moment, loophole permitting.
Ensuring strong bench coverage, good donut schedules for loopholing and a few trades in hand for late omissions is a better policy for continuing good point scoring, instead of random hail mary sideways trades of elite players with 8 matches to go.
All of the top 10 have more serious weaknesses than having Beams atm.
Eg. D6 vs S Mitchell upon return...that is a guaranteed 15-20ppg if Mitchell is healthy. 1st place Torrential Raines is running Grimes and Langdon through D6...that is currently earning 80-85ppg at the moment, loophole permitting.
Ensuring strong bench coverage, good donut schedules for loopholing and a few trades in hand for late omissions is a better policy for continuing good point scoring, instead of random hail mary sideways trades of elite players with 8 matches to go.
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Here's another fun little table which shows each of the past winner's weekly rank along with overall at the same time.
One thing that strikes me is they consistently put up good scores but rarely went massive. To me that says if you're within reach, the aim should be to gradually plug away rather than throw weekly hail marys. I would assume having good (premium) cover to avoid donuts and the ability to loophole to avoid premium 40s will play a big part in closing the gap.
You can see there were weeks where the previous winner's overall rank was maintained even though they were in the tens of thousands for the round which suggests those around them had similar/worse weeks when the late carnage came.
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 527, align: left"]
<colgroup><col><col><col><col span="3"><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]Dimma[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]Chewy[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]Jay[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Round[/TD]
[TD]Weekly[/TD]
[TD]Overall[/TD]
[TD]Round[/TD]
[TD]Overall[/TD]
[TD]Weekly[/TD]
[TD]Overall[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]355[/TD]
[TD]355[/TD]
[TD]67,429[/TD]
[TD]67,429[/TD]
[TD]228[/TD]
[TD]228[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]72,384[/TD]
[TD]5,897[/TD]
[TD]71,407[/TD]
[TD]64,318[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2,228[/TD]
[TD]1,681[/TD]
[TD]567[/TD]
[TD]10,792[/TD]
[TD]75,132[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]5,974[/TD]
[TD]300[/TD]
[TD]1,528[/TD]
[TD]2,437[/TD]
[TD]1,494[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]944[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]44,339[/TD]
[TD]3,310[/TD]
[TD]4,945[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]4,274[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]2,205[/TD]
[TD]979[/TD]
[TD]17,057[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]3,268[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]29,483[/TD]
[TD]1,185[/TD]
[TD]14,083[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]587[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]8,646[/TD]
[TD]1,057[/TD]
[TD]32,564[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]837[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]5,426[/TD]
[TD]715[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]28,250[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3,419[/TD]
[TD]331[/TD]
[TD]6,744[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]4,336[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]2,394[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[TD]57,166[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]2,340[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]13,473[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]491[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]26,638[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1,037[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]22,319[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]17,560[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]3,099[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]126[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]5,509[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]12,633[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]2,282[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]3,040[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]16,656[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]23,916[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]15,755[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]8,349[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]12,499[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3,448[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]8,942[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5,749[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]5,315[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]392[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1,195[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]270[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]3,687[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]21,395[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]24,173[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]1,496[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]19,966[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]11,350[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]12,786[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]12,634[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3,984[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
One thing that strikes me is they consistently put up good scores but rarely went massive. To me that says if you're within reach, the aim should be to gradually plug away rather than throw weekly hail marys. I would assume having good (premium) cover to avoid donuts and the ability to loophole to avoid premium 40s will play a big part in closing the gap.
You can see there were weeks where the previous winner's overall rank was maintained even though they were in the tens of thousands for the round which suggests those around them had similar/worse weeks when the late carnage came.
[TABLE="class: grid, width: 527, align: left"]
<colgroup><col><col><col><col span="3"><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]Dimma[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]Chewy[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: center"]Jay[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Round[/TD]
[TD]Weekly[/TD]
[TD]Overall[/TD]
[TD]Round[/TD]
[TD]Overall[/TD]
[TD]Weekly[/TD]
[TD]Overall[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]355[/TD]
[TD]355[/TD]
[TD]67,429[/TD]
[TD]67,429[/TD]
[TD]228[/TD]
[TD]228[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]72,384[/TD]
[TD]5,897[/TD]
[TD]71,407[/TD]
[TD]64,318[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2,228[/TD]
[TD]1,681[/TD]
[TD]567[/TD]
[TD]10,792[/TD]
[TD]75,132[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]5,974[/TD]
[TD]300[/TD]
[TD]1,528[/TD]
[TD]2,437[/TD]
[TD]1,494[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]944[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]44,339[/TD]
[TD]3,310[/TD]
[TD]4,945[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]4,274[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]2,205[/TD]
[TD]979[/TD]
[TD]17,057[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]3,268[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]29,483[/TD]
[TD]1,185[/TD]
[TD]14,083[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]587[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]8,646[/TD]
[TD]1,057[/TD]
[TD]32,564[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]837[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]5,426[/TD]
[TD]715[/TD]
[TD]66[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]28,250[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3,419[/TD]
[TD]331[/TD]
[TD]6,744[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]4,336[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]2,394[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[TD]57,166[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]2,340[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]13,473[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]491[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]26,638[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1,037[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]22,319[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]17,560[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]3,099[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]126[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]5,509[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]12,633[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]2,282[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]3,040[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]16,656[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]23,916[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]15,755[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]8,349[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]12,499[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3,448[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]8,942[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]5,749[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]5,315[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]392[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1,195[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]270[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]3,687[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]21,395[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]24,173[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]1,496[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]19,966[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]11,350[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]12,786[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]12,634[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3,984[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Most teams in the top 10 probably have enough PODs already that they don't need to pick another one at the moment - just looking at the midfield, teams in the top 10 only have 3 common midfielders (Ablett, Pendles and Beams), then comes Selwood (9), JPK and Fyfe (6), Goddard (5), Libba and Rockliff (4), then Murphy, SJ (3) NDS, Cotchin, Ward (2) as players common to some teams.
If I was going to pick a POD, then would maybe do it in the rucks or in the forwards with a KPP. A POD may work, but the problem is who to pick. Chances are that at least one team ahead of you has that player, unless you go extremely left field.
Last year, I think it was round 18, I was 2nd by 1 pt behind Dimma, but ended up about 330 pts behind Dimma at the end. From memory teams were fairly similar, so just goes to show you can easily make-up/lose ground with just a few differences, vice/captain choices, loopholing of players, and bench coverage. Dimma selecting Selwood as VC and when Ablett got 60 odd against Melbourne was a great move and made him ~90 points over the field.
If I was going to pick a POD, then would maybe do it in the rucks or in the forwards with a KPP. A POD may work, but the problem is who to pick. Chances are that at least one team ahead of you has that player, unless you go extremely left field.
Last year, I think it was round 18, I was 2nd by 1 pt behind Dimma, but ended up about 330 pts behind Dimma at the end. From memory teams were fairly similar, so just goes to show you can easily make-up/lose ground with just a few differences, vice/captain choices, loopholing of players, and bench coverage. Dimma selecting Selwood as VC and when Ablett got 60 odd against Melbourne was a great move and made him ~90 points over the field.
Extremely good points.
The problem with going extremely left field is that you more than likely will fail. Very tough to pick that very rare POD as they suddenly breaks out to become a super elite! In many ways I think it will come down to a series of decisions that decides the winner this year.
Good luck to you Aps1 and Tracygrims, I am very much barracking for a regular on this site to take it out this year!
The problem with going extremely left field is that you more than likely will fail. Very tough to pick that very rare POD as they suddenly breaks out to become a super elite! In many ways I think it will come down to a series of decisions that decides the winner this year.
Good luck to you Aps1 and Tracygrims, I am very much barracking for a regular on this site to take it out this year!
Thanks Philzsay.
I'm not a great believer in choosing PODs, like you said very difficult to pick. They do have their place, and sometimes it is the right move to pick one, but if you are looking at a 1000-1 or even 100-1 chance, you may never pick the right one in your SC career. You are also hoping that the player you don't pick doesn't score to their expectations.
I'm not a great believer in choosing PODs, like you said very difficult to pick. They do have their place, and sometimes it is the right move to pick one, but if you are looking at a 1000-1 or even 100-1 chance, you may never pick the right one in your SC career. You are also hoping that the player you don't pick doesn't score to their expectations.
Quite a few teams hurt and dare I say a trade most wouldn't have planned to make this week so will be interesting what they all do. I'm assuming none of the coaches will be willing to cop a zero or trust Bews to score anything more than 30 so i reckon you're right, Mitchell might be popular this week.,..if he's within reach or we might see coaches using two trades 
^^
In seasons past I think there were fewer trades so most had burned through them all by R18-19 or so. Also, no rolling lockouts as well so less "safe" opportunities to make up ground.
The changing of the elite midfield guard is another likely big factor this season. In previous seasons, lock and load Ablett, Pendles, Swan, Selwood, Dal Santo and a couple of others - little difference in top sides. In 2014, Swan's decline and Selwood playing hurt introduces interesting X-factors, as well as unorthodox picks like a dominating 35yo fwd in Boomer.
With more trades and the rolling lockout now, 1st place is likely to go down to the wire.
In seasons past I think there were fewer trades so most had burned through them all by R18-19 or so. Also, no rolling lockouts as well so less "safe" opportunities to make up ground.
The changing of the elite midfield guard is another likely big factor this season. In previous seasons, lock and load Ablett, Pendles, Swan, Selwood, Dal Santo and a couple of others - little difference in top sides. In 2014, Swan's decline and Selwood playing hurt introduces interesting X-factors, as well as unorthodox picks like a dominating 35yo fwd in Boomer.
With more trades and the rolling lockout now, 1st place is likely to go down to the wire.
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