2015: Premium Rucks
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Had a look at some ruck stats and Hampson makes for interesting reading.
For an average of 95 minutes on ground he was averaging 9.2 hit outs to advantage in 2014
That is up there with the best ruckmen in the league.
Lobbe for an extra average of 11 minutes on ground per game averages 8.9 hit outs to advantage in a match.
Minson for an average 110 minutes a game, averaged 9.3 hit outs to advantage.
Witts for 96 minutes on ground averages 4.9 hit outs to advantage.
Interesting reading Jon Giles mars stats also. I am horrified as a Carlton supporter how little impact Warnock has had around ground not even averaging 1 mark a game. Well Warnock averaged 100 minutes a game when he played for 0.9 average marks. Giles averaged 12 more minutes on ground in 2014 games he played and averaged the same, of not even a mark a game. Gee, he is as crap as Warnock in the air for marking presence.
Fascinating so many considering Giles because he is FWD/RUC in Supercoach. Would not touch him in my craziest moments.
Overall looking at stats it is hard to go past concluding that Sam Jacobs is the number 1 ruck in the league now and probably should hold that mantle for a few seasons.
For an average of 107 minutes on ground he averages 4.1 marks and 11.7 hit outs to advantage.
Goldstein averages 109 minutes on ground for 2.2 marks a game and 10.4 hit out to advantage.
We all know Sandilands gets the most hit outs in general.
We also know he will not get any better and always a chance of breaking down any moment but avoided that in 2014 season.
He averages 96 minutes of play a game in 2014 season for an average of 3.7 marks and 12.1 hit outs to advantage.
We will pay a rather large surcharge in 2014 season to get the current best rucks in the league.
It will be interesting how many SC coaches decide to pay it knowing they will have the current best rucks in league but also knowing their prices are going to drop quite a bit early in season.
Bellchambers is another interesting one. His RUC/FWD status in SC and without Ryder on the scene has some appeal given the overall ruck situation for Supercoach and his price being about $300K cheaper than the best rucks. I cannot see Giles being number 1 ruck there but at the same time we still have this dark ASADA cloud hanging over him and that is still a concern. Even if that is not an issue to deal with in 2015 season I still wonder if Bellchambers with new scoring system can he average enough given he had fitness issues last season and has never really been up to 100 average at any stage. I think you got to project not much more than 80 average for him all things being considered. I'm not confident the upside is rewarding enough for him this season despite his cheap price. I usually would look for a FWD/RUC link but starting to think despite ruck line only having 1 on bench this season I might not put much importance on getting one.
Going to be a lot to consider when I pick my round one team on April 2nd. The ruck line I sense will be the line I will take the most in deciding what it will be on that day.
For an average of 95 minutes on ground he was averaging 9.2 hit outs to advantage in 2014
That is up there with the best ruckmen in the league.
Lobbe for an extra average of 11 minutes on ground per game averages 8.9 hit outs to advantage in a match.
Minson for an average 110 minutes a game, averaged 9.3 hit outs to advantage.
Witts for 96 minutes on ground averages 4.9 hit outs to advantage.
Interesting reading Jon Giles mars stats also. I am horrified as a Carlton supporter how little impact Warnock has had around ground not even averaging 1 mark a game. Well Warnock averaged 100 minutes a game when he played for 0.9 average marks. Giles averaged 12 more minutes on ground in 2014 games he played and averaged the same, of not even a mark a game. Gee, he is as crap as Warnock in the air for marking presence.
Fascinating so many considering Giles because he is FWD/RUC in Supercoach. Would not touch him in my craziest moments.
Overall looking at stats it is hard to go past concluding that Sam Jacobs is the number 1 ruck in the league now and probably should hold that mantle for a few seasons.
For an average of 107 minutes on ground he averages 4.1 marks and 11.7 hit outs to advantage.
Goldstein averages 109 minutes on ground for 2.2 marks a game and 10.4 hit out to advantage.
We all know Sandilands gets the most hit outs in general.
We also know he will not get any better and always a chance of breaking down any moment but avoided that in 2014 season.
He averages 96 minutes of play a game in 2014 season for an average of 3.7 marks and 12.1 hit outs to advantage.
We will pay a rather large surcharge in 2014 season to get the current best rucks in the league.
It will be interesting how many SC coaches decide to pay it knowing they will have the current best rucks in league but also knowing their prices are going to drop quite a bit early in season.
Bellchambers is another interesting one. His RUC/FWD status in SC and without Ryder on the scene has some appeal given the overall ruck situation for Supercoach and his price being about $300K cheaper than the best rucks. I cannot see Giles being number 1 ruck there but at the same time we still have this dark ASADA cloud hanging over him and that is still a concern. Even if that is not an issue to deal with in 2015 season I still wonder if Bellchambers with new scoring system can he average enough given he had fitness issues last season and has never really been up to 100 average at any stage. I think you got to project not much more than 80 average for him all things being considered. I'm not confident the upside is rewarding enough for him this season despite his cheap price. I usually would look for a FWD/RUC link but starting to think despite ruck line only having 1 on bench this season I might not put much importance on getting one.
Going to be a lot to consider when I pick my round one team on April 2nd. The ruck line I sense will be the line I will take the most in deciding what it will be on that day.
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Definitely important decisions as much depends on ruck expenditure for the other lines as well.
As each day of Rnd1 rolls on, those who are still undecided in the rucks will also have consequential and diminishing choices to make on other lines.
ROUND 1: RUCK FIXTURE
April 2
Carl v Rich: Maric, Kreuzer.
April 3
Mel v GCS
Syd v Ess: Bellchambers(R/F).
Bris v Coll: Martin, Leuenberger.
WB v WCE: Minson, Naitanui, Lycett(R/F), Sinclair(R/F).
April 5
StK v GWS: Mumford.
Adel v NM: Jacobs, Goldstein.
Fre v PtAd: Sandilands, Ryder(R/F), Lobbe, Clarke(R/F).
April 6
Haw v Geel: Hale(R/F), Blicavs(R/M).
As each day of Rnd1 rolls on, those who are still undecided in the rucks will also have consequential and diminishing choices to make on other lines.
ROUND 1: RUCK FIXTURE
April 2
Carl v Rich: Maric, Kreuzer.
April 3
Mel v GCS
Syd v Ess: Bellchambers(R/F).
Bris v Coll: Martin, Leuenberger.
WB v WCE: Minson, Naitanui, Lycett(R/F), Sinclair(R/F).
April 5
StK v GWS: Mumford.
Adel v NM: Jacobs, Goldstein.
Fre v PtAd: Sandilands, Ryder(R/F), Lobbe, Clarke(R/F).
April 6
Haw v Geel: Hale(R/F), Blicavs(R/M).
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If Hampson is in the mix in round one makes for interesting addition to mix given his hit out to advantage stats are better than most and he has showed if and when he has chances to ruck solo he has had times where getting 100 points is within his reach.
He provided good value early last season for the rare coach that got on him, although you also had to get off him at some stage.
But if Maric is 100% locked in it not relevant. If Maric is injured for any reason it makes it a little interesting.
He provided good value early last season for the rare coach that got on him, although you also had to get off him at some stage.
But if Maric is 100% locked in it not relevant. If Maric is injured for any reason it makes it a little interesting.
In the past with R3, R4 I've tried to have a bench ruck from the same side as either R1 or R2.
I was able to do this with Goldstein/Currie in 2013, with Currie not playing a game - but the consolation was that Goldstein didn't miss any.
Never the less the insurance was there as Currie was 24yo and had already spent five years on Sydney’s list and another season in the SANFL before being drafted by Nth Melbourne. He was definitely considered to be the senior ruck if Goldstein got injured.
This situation is rare where such a ready made ruckman is cheaply priced and can provide a realistic bench cover at R3 for a premo from the same side at R1 or R2. The stars really do have to align.
Usually the cheapie ruck isn't anywhere near being the replacement ruck, or the Premium ruck is not a viable choice.
What I'm considering for this year is something I have never dared to do before.
The circumstances are brought about because of;
(a) The ruck bench being reduced to one.
(b) The perceived lack of rookie rucks who will play and provide adequate cover.
(c) The uncertainty of modified ruck scoring and consequently the value of investing in elite ruck premiums for my starting side.
(d) The uncertainty of modified scoring leading me to only want the fewest possible rucks, three.
(e) The many possible rookies, value picks and Fwd/Mid premos available in the forward line, making the prospect of having a Ruck taking up a spot (at least in my starting side) undesirable.
My proposed Ruck set up is R1 Naitanui, R2 Lycett(R/F), R3 Sinclair(R/F).
This costs me the same as Goldstein, Naitanui, Read(R/F).
(In fact it's $1,500 less)
The obvious drawbacks are Lycett's scores v Goldstein's scores, and the $267,400 of Sinclair just sitting on the bench.
The main positive is that Sinclair at R3 would be a ready made emergency cover for both my R1 and R2.
As I said, it's something I'm considering, a proposed idea, nothing set in stone, just putting it out there.
I was able to do this with Goldstein/Currie in 2013, with Currie not playing a game - but the consolation was that Goldstein didn't miss any.
Never the less the insurance was there as Currie was 24yo and had already spent five years on Sydney’s list and another season in the SANFL before being drafted by Nth Melbourne. He was definitely considered to be the senior ruck if Goldstein got injured.
This situation is rare where such a ready made ruckman is cheaply priced and can provide a realistic bench cover at R3 for a premo from the same side at R1 or R2. The stars really do have to align.
Usually the cheapie ruck isn't anywhere near being the replacement ruck, or the Premium ruck is not a viable choice.
What I'm considering for this year is something I have never dared to do before.
The circumstances are brought about because of;
(a) The ruck bench being reduced to one.
(b) The perceived lack of rookie rucks who will play and provide adequate cover.
(c) The uncertainty of modified ruck scoring and consequently the value of investing in elite ruck premiums for my starting side.
(d) The uncertainty of modified scoring leading me to only want the fewest possible rucks, three.
(e) The many possible rookies, value picks and Fwd/Mid premos available in the forward line, making the prospect of having a Ruck taking up a spot (at least in my starting side) undesirable.
My proposed Ruck set up is R1 Naitanui, R2 Lycett(R/F), R3 Sinclair(R/F).
This costs me the same as Goldstein, Naitanui, Read(R/F).
(In fact it's $1,500 less)
The obvious drawbacks are Lycett's scores v Goldstein's scores, and the $267,400 of Sinclair just sitting on the bench.
The main positive is that Sinclair at R3 would be a ready made emergency cover for both my R1 and R2.
As I said, it's something I'm considering, a proposed idea, nothing set in stone, just putting it out there.
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Can see your logic in all that, however it does seem to lean towards protecting against things going wrong rather than trying to find an opportunity to break away from the pack. A lot of funds put towards having Sinclair on bench and actually unllikely to play. If Nick Nat and Lycett play all year you have paid an extra $267K for insurance and almost certainly won't have the scoring power of some coaches with two premiums rucks and a cheap rookie on bench.
I say this because only last night was thinking something slightly different to you and then thought of the cons of it and it was essentially same negative I just pointed out of essentially paying insurance money against something going wrong. The coaches that do not pay insurance and nothing goes wrong will be ahead of you as far as ruck line goes in such circumstances. Anyway, just food for thought.
I say this because only last night was thinking something slightly different to you and then thought of the cons of it and it was essentially same negative I just pointed out of essentially paying insurance money against something going wrong. The coaches that do not pay insurance and nothing goes wrong will be ahead of you as far as ruck line goes in such circumstances. Anyway, just food for thought.
I know, I know...haha, I'll probably end up going Goldy, NicNat, R3 someone.
Will be very interesting to see the preseason games SC scoring of the rucks, both premos and midpricers.
If Leuenberger or Kreuzer convince me I don't want to miss out, and Lycett will be a consideration too.
Definitely not going to have a ruck play in the forwards though (starting side), that bit I'm sure of.
Will be very interesting to see the preseason games SC scoring of the rucks, both premos and midpricers.
If Leuenberger or Kreuzer convince me I don't want to miss out, and Lycett will be a consideration too.
Definitely not going to have a ruck play in the forwards though (starting side), that bit I'm sure of.
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I remember first season on this site my ruck set up was Leunberger and Kruezer but I found many others had 3 rookie rucks to start that season. Giles, Redden of Port and Oren Stephenson. Was a disaster for me because last moment tinkering made me feel I needed at least one of these rookies in my 4 rucks and yes, I picked Stephenson that ended up the worst of those 3 rookies and my two main guys injured....
Nothing worked. Last year started with Sandilands and Jacobs. That part worked.
As you said, waiting for the preseason games SC scoring of rucks is going to be an interesting thing. As for Leunberger this season I probably not considering him closely due to Stefan Martin form late last year going to demand too much of their clubs SC ruck division pie. If Martin goes down though , my interest in L-Burger will sky rocket on eve of the season.
Nothing worked. Last year started with Sandilands and Jacobs. That part worked.
As you said, waiting for the preseason games SC scoring of rucks is going to be an interesting thing. As for Leunberger this season I probably not considering him closely due to Stefan Martin form late last year going to demand too much of their clubs SC ruck division pie. If Martin goes down though , my interest in L-Burger will sky rocket on eve of the season.
Giles definitely on my radar. Will be our number one ruck with Bellchambers playing predominately forward I reckon. Only two rucks on our list so both have good value in them.
Had same theory last year starting with Ryder but that sort of blew up in my face and caused a succession of costly trades. Was an unlucky injury I suppose.
Had same theory last year starting with Ryder but that sort of blew up in my face and caused a succession of costly trades. Was an unlucky injury I suppose.
Just came across some interesting stats that were in the prospectus about the effect of new ruck scoring rules on 5 Premiums of 2014
Sam Jacobs 118.5 drops to 111.4
Stef Martin 115.3 drops to 105
Sandi 110.8 drops to 99.9
Goldy 106.6 drops to 96.9
Mumford 112.7 drops to 100.9
The affect of the new rules definitely makes all the lower priced options much more attractive! I think any ruck that can average 100+ would be a premium (no longer 110+).
Also another consideration would be that there are more points for other players in the SC pie (5 to 10 points per game) [Probably a very minor consideration]
I was already considering Nic Nat/Berger/Kreuzer before but after hearing those drops in averages, I think that's the only viable combination now.
Edit: Some other stats
Warnock 81.0 to 69.2
Pyke 79.8 to 70.2
Jamar 84.3 to 72.9
Hickey 86.1 to 75.5
Minson 94.8 to 82.0
Edit: just looking at those stats again, not sure about the accuracy because the 2014 averages seem off :/
Apologies for misinformation
Sam Jacobs 118.5 drops to 111.4
Stef Martin 115.3 drops to 105
Sandi 110.8 drops to 99.9
Goldy 106.6 drops to 96.9
Mumford 112.7 drops to 100.9
The affect of the new rules definitely makes all the lower priced options much more attractive! I think any ruck that can average 100+ would be a premium (no longer 110+).
Also another consideration would be that there are more points for other players in the SC pie (5 to 10 points per game) [Probably a very minor consideration]
I was already considering Nic Nat/Berger/Kreuzer before but after hearing those drops in averages, I think that's the only viable combination now.
Edit: Some other stats
Warnock 81.0 to 69.2
Pyke 79.8 to 70.2
Jamar 84.3 to 72.9
Hickey 86.1 to 75.5
Minson 94.8 to 82.0
Edit: just looking at those stats again, not sure about the accuracy because the 2014 averages seem off :/
Apologies for misinformation
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I think the problem with Jacobs is he will likely be the number 1 ranked ruck but he's technically overpriced with the rule change.
I haven't had a chance to do any meaningful analysis but it's looking like starting with value picks in the ruck then upgrading when the change of scoring brings down their and price will be the way to go.
I haven't had a chance to do any meaningful analysis but it's looking like starting with value picks in the ruck then upgrading when the change of scoring brings down their and price will be the way to go.
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He was head and shoulders above the rest last year. He has always had a good hitout to adv % (2nd in 2012, 3rd in 2013) but he just had his first season above 103. After his last season above 100 he dropped over 15 points per game the following season.
If he does what so many have done before him and drop 10 points the following season, that will be amplified to 15 points per game based upon 2015 scoring. You'd be paying 620k for a guy to average 100!!! I can tell you now that I cannot justify that kind of spend for someone who should certainly drop in value and scoring output.
If he does what so many have done before him and drop 10 points the following season, that will be amplified to 15 points per game based upon 2015 scoring. You'd be paying 620k for a guy to average 100!!! I can tell you now that I cannot justify that kind of spend for someone who should certainly drop in value and scoring output.