Opinion 2020: Super Early Player Discussions

[pizza safety]

Thanks mate. I think @pizza safety had a good indicator on this, and Danger made the cut from memory ... personally I wouldn’t have been/wont be surprised to see him mid only, but he’s obviously appealing if he’s forward eligible.

The forward line looks the most interesting to me. There aren’t many premium locks (especially if we lose more M-F types than we gain) but there are a large number of potentially viable cheaper options, even ones you could argue are proper premiums. The forward rookies are usually shallow/not great as well.

If I end up going cheaper/deeper on a particular line, I reckon it’s up forward, with guys like Smith, Menegola, Ablett, Buddy and Wingard all looking worthy of consideration.

Cheers Darkie, this is the CD classifications at the end of round 23, but finals are included so they can change. They don't create categories for def-mid or ruck-forward so we don't know if Ryder is a dpp.

Starting 2 of danger, whitfield and dusty along with 2 very cheap mid pricers looks like the way to go.

https://twitter.com/AFLPlayerRating?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[randomcliche]

Cheers Darkie, this is the CD classifications at the end of round 23, but finals are included so they can change. They don't create categories for def-mid or ruck-forward so we don't if Ryder is a dpp.

Starting 2 of danger, whitfield and dusty along with 2 very cheap mid pricers looks like the way to go.

https://twitter.com/AFLPlayerRating?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

View attachment 11374

Mind blown. Danger, Martin, Whitfield. Problem solved. Easy see you in the new year! (Martin I know I said never again, but that was just midfeild bud) (Wingard, yes I've promised you a spot...just hang tight, there might be some spare change somewhere).

 

[Herbie66]

Thanks mate. I think @pizza safety had a good indicator on this, and Danger made the cut from memory ... personally I wouldn’t have been/wont be surprised to see him mid only, but he’s obviously appealing if he’s forward eligible.

The forward line looks the most interesting to me. There aren’t many premium locks (especially if we lose more M-F types than we gain) but there are a large number of potentially viable cheaper options, even ones you could argue are proper premiums. The forward rookies are usually shallow/not great as well.

If I end up going cheaper/deeper on a particular line, I reckon it’s up forward, with guys like Smith, Menegola, Ablett, Buddy and Wingard all looking worthy of consideration.

approx prices

Menegola $ 442 k
Wingard $ 413 k
Franklin $ 395 k
Lynch $ 390 k
Tom Tom $ 388 k
Smith $ 337 k
Hogan $ 328 k
Daniher $ 271 k

 

[Herbie66]

@Darkie

the little bald headed man will be around $ 521 k

 

[pizza safety]

Mind blown. Danger, Martin, Whitfield. Problem solved. Easy see you in the new year! (Martin I know I said never again, but that was just midfeild bud) (Wingard, yes I've promised you a spot...just hang tight, there might be some spare change somewhere).

Yeah it looks very good but I reckon Danger and Whitfield are very close to mid only. They stop updating positions on their player ratings page as of now, I know that because they kept classifying De Goey as a mid forward in last years finals even though he was later classified as a forward only in the prospectus after he played 22% 0% and 0% forward in last seasons finals (prospectus). Keep a close eye if you can.

Wingard/Gunston/Dev Smith/TMac/Menegola all look like amazing value.

 

[Connoisseur]

Yeah it looks very good but I reckon Danger and Whitfield are very close to mid only. They stop updating positions on their player ratings page as of now, I know that because they kept classifying De Goey as a mid forward in last years finals even though he was later classified as a forward only in the prospectus after he played 22% 0% and 0% forward in last seasons finals (prospectus). Keep a close eye if you can.

Wingard/Gunston/Dev Smith/TMac/Menegola all look like amazing value.

Hear, Hear. Select 3 and add in I Rankine and 2 fwd rookies only for a cost of $1,500,000 to $1,600,000.

 

[pizza safety]

Hear, Hear. Select 3 and add in I Rankine and 2 fwd rookies only for a cost of $1,500,000 to $1,600,000.

Haha that’s so cheap, I might try to get 3 of them along with Danger and Whitfield if possible and have only two non-rookie defenders at the back (Byrne-Jones and Docherty). Add Ward at M6 and you can spend like crazy in the midfield and rucks.

Edit: Might only be able to get two of them but we shall see

 

[Connoisseur]

Haha that’s so cheap, I might try to get 3 of them along with Danger and Whitfield if possible and have only two non-rookie defenders at the back (Byrne-Jones and Docherty). Add Ward at M6 and you can spend like crazy in the midfield and rucks.

Edit: Might only be able to get two of them but we shall see

Allows Gawn, Grundy, Ward, Laird, Docherty, Fyfe, Macrae, Kelly, Cripps, Mitchell, Lloyd, Sicily and enough cash to decrease fwd rookies from 3 to 2 by grabbing a Menegola,etc.

 

[Darkie]

approx prices

Menegola $ 442 k
Wingard $ 413 k
Franklin $ 395 k
Lynch $ 390 k
Tom Tom $ 388 k
Smith $ 337 k
Hogan $ 328 k
Daniher $ 271 k

Thanks mate - surely Smith is a lock if fit? He was something like F5 coming into the season, 4 points off being F2.

Menegola had basically the same average. Could be a cheap but not compromised pairing subject to fitness and role.

 

[Darkie]

@Darkie

the little bald headed man will be around $ 521 k

He could be gold if Geelong lose a mid or two.

There may be a nostalgia premium warranted as well.

 

[Herbie66]

Thanks mate - surely Smith is a lock if fit? He was something like F5 coming into the season, 4 points off being F2.

Menegola had basically the same average. Could be a cheap but not compromised pairing subject to fitness and role.

Smith will be the one I would be monitoring.

Not sure about Menegola , especially if Steven arrives and Sparkle & co getting more mid time as well.

Might all depend on Danger , Dusty , Whitfield , Heeney etc etc

 

[Herbie66]

He could be gold if Geelong lose a mid or two.

There may be a nostalgia premium warranted as well.

I do like a nostalgic pick , but Heater & Pendles did not quite work out though.

Certainly has to be considered though.

 

[Darkie]

Interesting re Ward - what do we think he will be priced at?

I’ve thought of him as a 22 @ 105 type player, which is lowish on average, but would put him just behind Parker (13th) for mids this year (based on total points).

Less than 100 points behind 8th, and you obviously save a trade.

 

[Darkie]

Allows Gawn, Grundy, Ward, Laird, Docherty, Fyfe, Macrae, Kelly, Cripps, Mitchell, Lloyd, Sicily and enough cash to decrease fwd rookies from 3 to 2 by grabbing a Menegola,etc.

Very nice set of names there. Is that your draft starting side, or just an example?

Key differences vs mine would be the injury prone mids, Kelly and Fyfe.

 

[Darkie]

Smith will be the one I would be monitoring.

Not sure about Menegola , especially if Steven arrives and Sparkle & co getting more mid time as well.

Might all depend on Danger , Dusty , Whitfield , Heeney etc etc

Agreed re Menegola’s role. Who is Sparkle?

I didn’t start Kelly because I thought Geelong already had too many mids. Was arguably correct in the thinking but not the conclusion. Menegola probably needs one to drop out (through trades, injury etc) to be a really strong starting candidate.

 

[Herbie66]

Agreed re Menegola’s role. Who is Sparkle?

I didn’t start Kelly because I thought Geelong already had too many mids. Was arguably correct in the thinking but not the conclusion. Menegola probably needs one to drop out (through trades, injury etc) to be a really strong starting candidate.

Sparkle Narkle

 

[Darkie]

I do like a nostalgic pick , but Heater & Pendles did not quite work out though.

Certainly has to be considered though.

Unfortunately they don’t tend to work that well from what I can tell, have to be willing to trade the points for the nostalgia.

Heater and Pendles had the Pies connection too. I think Darcy Moore was the only Pie I had all year.

 

[Herbie66]

Interesting re Ward - what do we think he will be priced at?

I’ve thought of him as a 22 @ 105 type player, which is lowish on average, but would put him just behind Parker (13th) for mids this year.

Less than 100 points behind 8th, and you obviously save a trade.

I have seen Ward priced at $ 397,600.00.

Has gone 105+ 4 times before , is that enough for a M8 though with Bont , Cripps , Fyfe , Gaff , Kelly , Macrae , Neale , Oliver , Treloar , Yeo etc etc + maybe Danger , Dunkley & Whitfield as mids.

Probably not a ideal price to be a stepping stone , but if he has a full pre-season will be tempting.

Hannebery 5 games @ 96.00 , approx $ 417,820.00 ?

 

[Darkie]

I have seen Ward priced at $ 397,600.00.

Has gone 105+ 4 times before , is that enough for a M8 though with Bont , Cripps , Fyfe , Gaff , Kelly , Macrae , Neale , Oliver , Treloar , Yeo etc etc + maybe Danger , Dunkley & Whitfield as mids.

Probably not a ideal price to be a stepping stone , but if he has a full pre-season will be tempting.

Hannebery 5 games @ 96.00 , approx $ 417,820.00 ?

Assuming he’s fit, he would be an absolute lock for me at that price. A bit like when Murphy and Beams were in the $400ks that year (I think Beams has been twice) but with lower risk of missed games.

If you assume Ward plays 22 @ 105 and one of those names plays 20, they would need to PIT70 average 108.5 to break even on points (with the cash saved obviously favoring Ward if the points are even).

Only 10 mids averaged >108.5, and two of them could be picked up forward ... so Ward would potentially PIT70 at top M8 level if he is back to normal.

It’s a pretty decent sized list you outlined, and Mitchell will be in there too ... although I think this was already a pretty good year for mids (7 averaged 115+, only Kelly of the top 12 missed >2), so the gap between Ward’s typical output and what a top M8 can generate might be pretty small even if a lot of those guys do back up.

Could even be a slingshot through the byes to someone you didn’t start due to injury risks/someone who drops in price due to an early knock or the like.

 

[Connoisseur]

Very nice set of names there. Is that your draft starting side, or just an example?

Key differences vs mine would be the injury prone mids, Kelly and Fyfe.

Draft starting side.

Def: J Lloyd, R Laird, J Sicily, S Docherty 2 to 2.1 million
Ruck: M Gawn, B Grundy 1.4 million
Mids: J Macrae, P Cripps, J Kelly, N Fyfe, T Mitchell, C Ward 3.4 to 3.6 million
Fwd: C Wingard, T McDonald, D Smith, I Rankine 1.25 million
14 Rookies at roughly 125,000= 1.75 million