I think one needs to be careful when trying to extrapolate a trend from preseason games into season proper. For example, I doubt we have been able to see the true effect on player fatigue as a result of reduced rotations and return to full length quarters; teams have had squads of 26 to play the preseason games vs 22 come round 1. I'm also interested to see how wet weather impacts teams aggressiveness through the corridor. The safe play in wet weather games has usually been to force a stoppage down the line. I'm inclined to think this trend continues despite teams playing more through the middle in preseason. All in all, definitely something to monitor and will no doubt look back with interest.
Always difficult to extrapolate, for sure, but the hitouts have been a constant through all the rule changes and wildness, so there's that.
Not sure how the fatigue will impact but in general I'm not sure fatigue causes more stoppages, generally the talk around restricting interchange is one of the anti-congestion measures to tire players and restrict their ability to swarm and that the game opens up late in quarters when players tire.
Wet weather is a very overrated factor also for mine. It can't be more than about 10 games a season that get impacted by it nowadays with a game in Perth and QLD every week and half the Vic games in the dome. On top of that you'd need the relevant rucks to be in the rain every time for it to actually matter.
The really interesting thing with the observation if it were to hold up is that anyone who doesn't allow for it get's trapped by it, it could be a genuinely monumental advantage to be on the other side of it. Essentially you've had Gawn and Grundy significantly overpriced (and any mids it would drag with it) while those playing against it would be heavily invested against it.
I'd say it's all or nothing but realistically I don't think either of Gawn or Grundy are must start picks even if nothing changes which does make it a little bit more appealing to target it. It's a very hard case to make that Gawn is underpriced and while I think the case can be made for Grundy it's not an ironclad one or anything.
I had a quick look and hitout numbers last weekend seemed to be fairly similar to numbers from last season. Obviously last season was 20% shorter game time, but you need to balance that with the lack of pressure in a pre-season game.
I think that there will be a bit of a drop off, maybe 10% or so early on, but I expect this will lessen and games will go more towards the usual congestion over the course of the season as clubs adapt. Worth considering, but I wouldn't trash your whole team out of fear of a major drop.
Check the stats on the previous page. Over the previous two seasons there was no notable difference in hitout numbers between preseason (18 games each season) and the regular season. Might go back further in a bit to confirm if those are outliers or it's legitimate.
10% is significant though, that's 14 points for Gawn and 12 for Grundy, admittedly not their only scoring source, but that would be a massive shift in the game if it eventuated.
