I guess I just feel that is a huge "if".. if you were to look at the two scenarios it feels like Gawn maintaining an average that makes it worthwhile to start him is far more likely that some of the mid price players becoming keepers. But that said, there is nothing that says we can't both be right/successful so maybe let's just hope for that!
Position 2021: Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
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One thing I noticed with Gawn last year, was he actually took alot more I50 ruck contests which he didn't do in the year previous. Hopefully Goodwin has learnt his lesson by not having the best tap ruckman a kick off the ball when those stoppages happen I50. He can create better chance at goal I feel with those taps rather than his ability to intercept mark for repeat congested I50's.
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Amazing 
His indicators are really all significantly better than the guys who’ve done 90-95+ in that No.1 ruck role before like ROB (nothing), Marshall (nothing), Nank (limited history), Witts (limited history of 70s)
His indicators are really all significantly better than the guys who’ve done 90-95+ in that No.1 ruck role before like ROB (nothing), Marshall (nothing), Nank (limited history), Witts (limited history of 70s)
Possibly more important for his early success will be how well he covers the ground, as I am sure other members have previously alluded to concerns about his tank. Ideally we would be looking for him to record around the 10D, 3M and 3T range more often than not.
I’m not even entertaining the thought of preuss in 2021 but I do remember witts first year at Gold Coast. Teams that started with him in supercoach started really really well as their teams were deeper and the outlay of witts going 94 wasn’t hurt by any real premo rucks. Kreuzer was the top ruck that year and only averaged 15 more then witts with Ryder second on 101 and stef Martin 98. (Gawn was injured and Grundy at 97 still hadn’t broken out). That year the difference of 15 points at a 290k starting price compared to a premo ruck worked well as it was so even.
But this year gawn and Grundy will both be going 120+ Minimum with rob 110+ imo too. If preuss matched what witts did in his 18 games in 2017 and averaged 94 it would be a good result but I think it’s worth eliminating the headache and starting the two big guns.
But this year gawn and Grundy will both be going 120+ Minimum with rob 110+ imo too. If preuss matched what witts did in his 18 games in 2017 and averaged 94 it would be a good result but I think it’s worth eliminating the headache and starting the two big guns.
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Witts was $217k. I have also leaned towards this over the years, having used Witts, Naismith and Lycett (at West Coast). Preuss I think will go well, it is the price tag and confidence we have in Gawn being circa 130 without an injury that drives me to start Gawn. Witts was good because he banged out 90's, Lycett was mixed early and it did hurt my side.
We can easily underestimate the impact on our teams when we invest in too many +150k players (particularly +250k) and how it drains the balance of the side. Preuss at least is attractive as he is priced 80points below Gawn, as long as he doesn't hit the lows that Pittonett did.
We can easily underestimate the impact on our teams when we invest in too many +150k players (particularly +250k) and how it drains the balance of the side. Preuss at least is attractive as he is priced 80points below Gawn, as long as he doesn't hit the lows that Pittonett did.
This is a pretty key note too. If Preuss was that kind of price I don't think I'd be bypassing him, even if I end up stashing him on my bench and watching. That's just a high end rookie. That extra $100k makes it a lot harder to make rookie-equivalent cash out of him but also means you're hoping he becomes a keeper.
Yeah completely my bad on the witts starting price of 217k.
I remember buying him at 290k as I missed him from the initial get go. Had Oliver though which was a big break in his breakout year and made up for it. Funny game
Preuss at 305k is as close to what witts was as I think we’ll get. But still that year the premo rucks weren’t as clear cut as 2021. Still staying away. If only he was a dpp, I wouldn’t even think twice about starting him
I remember buying him at 290k as I missed him from the initial get go. Had Oliver though which was a big break in his breakout year and made up for it. Funny game
Preuss at 305k is as close to what witts was as I think we’ll get. But still that year the premo rucks weren’t as clear cut as 2021. Still staying away. If only he was a dpp, I wouldn’t even think twice about starting him
Thinking the same thing. Most of my plan teams had Grundy with Preuss as the money saving strategy but the lack of Gawn as the Capt option feels like too much of a risk. I’m also a little concerned about Grundy. Not sure if he was injured or just “over it” at the end of last season but he just wasn’t the dominant quasi-midfielder he was the season before. The lack of any meaningful pre-season this year is going to make it difficult to dispel my concerns. Scratch match / match sim reports are going to be so important.
Preuss has about 7 weeks to make his money from a high base of $300k against some of the AFL's hardest opponents for rucks. The mid pricers on other lines can sit there until the byes if they stall. If you still have Preuss after round 7 or 8 you're probably in trouble. It's not that Preuss over Gawn can't work and it's not that I don't like risk but it appears to be a very low chance of happening.
The chance that Gawn drops below $650k in the first third of the year, looking at the draw, is low.
The chance that Preuss can get above $450k in the first third of the year, looking at the draw, is low.
The chance that you can do it in the first third of the year with 2 trades is low.
Gawn is probably overpriced by about $50k, but I think trading and scoring points outweigh the finances in this case.
The chance that Gawn drops below $650k in the first third of the year, looking at the draw, is low.
The chance that Preuss can get above $450k in the first third of the year, looking at the draw, is low.
The chance that you can do it in the first third of the year with 2 trades is low.
Gawn is probably overpriced by about $50k, but I think trading and scoring points outweigh the finances in this case.
hmmmmm why?
This debate is almost identical to last season. He was only $50k less than he is now. In the end everyone in the trade threads that did not start him where posting their plans on bending over backwards on how to get him. You had to wait until round 15 for his cheapest price. A massive $30k drop. By round 6 he was more expensive than he is now, peaking at $790k. It’s easier to tinker him in now, than trade him in later. So I think it’s all well and good to have Preuss at R2 but it doesn’t need to be at the expense of Gawn. I really shouldn’t post this, the more that avoid Gawn the better.
This debate is almost identical to last season. He was only $50k less than he is now. In the end everyone in the trade threads that did not start him where posting their plans on bending over backwards on how to get him. You had to wait until round 15 for his cheapest price. A massive $30k drop. By round 6 he was more expensive than he is now, peaking at $790k. It’s easier to tinker him in now, than trade him in later. So I think it’s all well and good to have Preuss at R2 but it doesn’t need to be at the expense of Gawn. I really shouldn’t post this, the more that avoid Gawn the better.
This is a good point. It's lot easier to build things when they're not moving. All the moving parts start the second that round 1 team is locked in.
Heck, one thing a lot of people are counting on is Marshall in this equation, what happens if, god forbid, Marshall gets an LTI in round 2 and you have to close that link and all of a sudden it has to be Preuss > Gawn directly? All of a sudden if Preuss is underwhelming that get's really difficult.
Heck, one thing a lot of people are counting on is Marshall in this equation, what happens if, god forbid, Marshall gets an LTI in round 2 and you have to close that link and all of a sudden it has to be Preuss > Gawn directly? All of a sudden if Preuss is underwhelming that get's really difficult.
I think perhaps the key this year centre’s around Preuss, Marshall, O’Brian and McEvoy.
With Ceglar out, McEvoy will play ruck full time again. He had some 130/140 scores when rotating or perm ruck last season. Based on the last few years he should average between 92-101 unless he goes back to defence (which from the club seems unlikely). Add the captaincy and his infield natural leadership and drive, that 101 is quite possible. He is a DPP, so I am considering starting him as R2 and ending with him in the backline.
If he doesn’t work and Preuss does, I could downgrade McEvoy or move him back.
Marshall is another option that i could start as R2. Or F3/4. Also if I start either Preuss or McEvoy R2, I could move him to the ruck temporarily if needed.
In terms of the big two. Champion data shows the slight decline of Grundy. I think O’Brian is the only real challenger for that 2nd best ruck spot. Gawn is an upgrade target. Just far to expensive to start.
I hope to end with Gawn:OBrian. With Marshall forward and McEvoy as D6. If all goes to plan.
Will prob start O’Brina/McEvoy with Marshall forwards for round 1.
Anyway, a different take that I am considering.
With Ceglar out, McEvoy will play ruck full time again. He had some 130/140 scores when rotating or perm ruck last season. Based on the last few years he should average between 92-101 unless he goes back to defence (which from the club seems unlikely). Add the captaincy and his infield natural leadership and drive, that 101 is quite possible. He is a DPP, so I am considering starting him as R2 and ending with him in the backline.
If he doesn’t work and Preuss does, I could downgrade McEvoy or move him back.
Marshall is another option that i could start as R2. Or F3/4. Also if I start either Preuss or McEvoy R2, I could move him to the ruck temporarily if needed.
In terms of the big two. Champion data shows the slight decline of Grundy. I think O’Brian is the only real challenger for that 2nd best ruck spot. Gawn is an upgrade target. Just far to expensive to start.
I hope to end with Gawn:OBrian. With Marshall forward and McEvoy as D6. If all goes to plan.
Will prob start O’Brina/McEvoy with Marshall forwards for round 1.
Anyway, a different take that I am considering.