2022: AFL SC Player Discussions

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Someone tell me if I'm looking at this the right way...

Say I have Rowell and Berry under consideration: Rowell is $342.9k, Berry is $268.5k. Suppose I think they have roughly equal cash generation prospects and will make $130k in decent time.

That means Rowell averages something like 98 and Berry 83, or in dollars per point, pretty much 3500 $pp for Rowell and 3235 $pp for Berry.

Given they both still require a trade to turn them into a keeper, isn't this saying that Berry is ultimately a better pick? He costs less outlay to make a useful profit and also generates a better points return for the dollars invested.

There's the fact that Rowell would have scored maybe 105 more points over 7 rounds, so that tilts it the other way, and I guess the cash vs points equation weighs in somehow as well.
You're looking at this the right way.

What are you doing with the extra 100k saved too? Does it o***et the loss of 105 points on field over the 7 rounds or perhaps improve a mid price up to a keeper, thus saving you a trade?
 
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Someone tell me if I'm looking at this the right way...

Say I have Rowell and Berry under consideration: Rowell is $342.9k, Berry is $268.5k. Suppose I think they have roughly equal cash generation prospects and will make $130k in decent time.

That means Rowell averages something like 98 and Berry 83, or in dollars per point, pretty much 3500 $pp for Rowell and 3235 $pp for Berry.

Given they both still require a trade to turn them into a keeper, isn't this saying that Berry is ultimately a better pick? He costs less outlay to make a useful profit and also generates a better points return for the dollars invested.

There's the fact that Rowell would have scored maybe 105 more points over 7 rounds, so that tilts it the other way, and I guess the cash vs points equation weighs in somehow as well.
It depends how you spend the $75k difference between the two if you choose Berry. It is easier to get a player at $475K to a premium than it is a $400K player though, so you would probably have extra cash after trading if you choose Rowell. You can make arguments either way, depends how you look at it. If your team is making the same amount of cash either way, and not just looking at these individual players, go for whichever option which gets more points.
 

Darkie

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Someone tell me if I'm looking at this the right way...

Say I have Rowell and Berry under consideration: Rowell is $342.9k, Berry is $268.5k. Suppose I think they have roughly equal cash generation prospects and will make $130k in decent time.

That means Rowell averages something like 98 and Berry 83, or in dollars per point, pretty much 3500 $pp for Rowell and 3235 $pp for Berry.

Given they both still require a trade to turn them into a keeper, isn't this saying that Berry is ultimately a better pick? He costs less outlay to make a useful profit and also generates a better points return for the dollars invested.

There's the fact that Rowell would have scored maybe 105 more points over 7 rounds, so that tilts it the other way, and I guess the cash vs points equation weighs in somehow as well.
Personally I don’t think the ratio matters (3,500 vs 3,235), given that (1) both players are stepping stones only in your scenario, and (2) the loose change element has an impact on which option is more attractive overall (and in your example, you’re getting fair value on the cash difference between Rowell and Berry - and would presumably assume fair value on the difference invested elsewhere as well).

To illustrate, if you were choosing based on the ratio, a $120k rookie who averaged as little as 37 (120,000 / 3,235) would have the same ratio as Berry - but you very likely wouldn’t want them in your side.

You have to invest a significant amount of your cash “less efficiently” - ie at higher ratios - or you’ll have a team that generates heaps of cash, but very low points (eg a team full of rookies). It’s the balance of the two that matters, and the overall X vs Y (including the loose change element) is often useful to help decide clarify the best path.
 
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Essendon
Personally I don’t think the ratio matters (3,500 vs 3,235), given that (1) both players are stepping stones only in your scenario, and (2) the loose change element has an impact on which option is more attractive overall (and in your example, you’re getting fair value on the cash difference between Rowell and Berry - and would presumably assume fair value on the difference invested elsewhere as well).

To illustrate, if you were choosing based on the ratio, a $120k rookie who averaged as little as 37 (120,000 / 3,235) would have the same ratio as Berry - but you very likely wouldn’t want them in your side.

You have to invest a significant amount of your cash “less efficiently” - ie at higher ratios - or you’ll have a team that generates heaps of cash, but very low points (eg a team full of rookies). It’s the balance of the two that matters, and the overall X vs Y (including the loose change element) is often useful to help decide clarify the best path.
So what I'm hearing here is Caldwell over Berry.
 

Darkie

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So what I'm hearing here is Caldwell over Berry.
I actually haven’t given a lot of thought to Caldwell, but have seen him mentioned a few times recently are earmarked him as one to think further about.

I took Berry out a while back - probably at the same time as Rowell, as it happens - but he could potentially come back in as I’ve found a bit of extra cash again.

I’d like to avoid too many mid pricers given my recent experience with GnR, but will take a few if the rookies dictate, or of course if I have spare cash.
 
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I actually haven’t given a lot of thought to Caldwell, but have seen him mentioned a few times recently are earmarked him as one to think further about.

I took Berry out a while back - probably at the same time as Rowell, as it happens - but he could potentially come back in as I’ve found a bit of extra cash again.

I’d like to avoid too many mid pricers given my recent experience with GnR, but will take a few if the rookies dictate, or of course if I have spare cash.
I was only doing my best to give Caldwell a random plug, nothing more, as I've been big on him all preseason.
 
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Someone tell me if I'm looking at this the right way...

Say I have Rowell and Berry under consideration: Rowell is $342.9k, Berry is $268.5k. Suppose I think they have roughly equal cash generation prospects and will make $130k in decent time.

That means Rowell averages something like 98 and Berry 83, or in dollars per point, pretty much 3500 $pp for Rowell and 3235 $pp for Berry.

Given they both still require a trade to turn them into a keeper, isn't this saying that Berry is ultimately a better pick? He costs less outlay to make a useful profit and also generates a better points return for the dollars invested.

There's the fact that Rowell would have scored maybe 105 more points over 7 rounds, so that tilts it the other way, and I guess the cash vs points equation weighs in somehow as well.
Does the 75k difference earn 15 pts/game through an upgrade?
 
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I havent got a problem with mid pricers as such, I just dont think you pick them in the line thats likely stacked with rookie priced cash generation, rules out the Rowell/Berry/Caldwell/Polec picks for me.
What do you expect JHF or Daicos to generate may I ask?

I think Caldwell if he goes as I expect would likely generate something similar. Berry & Polec a chance too as they're 100k less than Rowell.

Matter of fact, JHF will throw in a few 40's & 50's in the role he's playing yet I'd be surprised if Caldwell does similar barring injury.

Everyone has JHF.
 
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Personally I don’t think the ratio matters (3,500 vs 3,235), given that (1) both players are stepping stones only in your scenario, and (2) the loose change element has an impact on which option is more attractive overall (and in your example, you’re getting fair value on the cash difference between Rowell and Berry - and would presumably assume fair value on the difference invested elsewhere as well).

To illustrate, if you were choosing based on the ratio, a $120k rookie who averaged as little as 37 (120,000 / 3,235) would have the same ratio as Berry - but you very likely wouldn’t want them in your side.

You have to invest a significant amount of your cash “less efficiently” - ie at higher ratios - or you’ll have a team that generates heaps of cash, but very low points (eg a team full of rookies). It’s the balance of the two that matters, and the overall X vs Y (including the loose change element) is often useful to help decide clarify the best path.
Maybe there's a recipe in there for building a winning team...:unsure:

1. Estimate the output of all the players.
2. Pick the 30 lowest $pp players to fill the side (ie. Best value for money). Likely reams of cash left over.
3. One by one, remove the worst value player in the team and replace them with the best value player that you would not expect to have to trade (ie. Keeper for their line).
4. Keep going until you run out of cash and then move the lowest scoring players to the bench.

Probably gets you a pretty standard looking 12 prem GnR really :p
 
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Maybe there's a recipe in there for building a winning team...:unsure:

1. Estimate the output of all the players.
2. Pick the 30 lowest $pp players to fill the side (ie. Best value for money). Likely reams of cash left over.
3. One by one, remove the worst value player in the team and replace them with the best value player that you would not expect to have to trade (ie. Keeper for their line).
4. Keep going until you run out of cash and then move the lowest scoring players to the bench.

Probably gets you a pretty standard looking 12 prem GnR really :p
Yeah, this is my usual system and it doesn't generate anything particularly outrageous. It just helps streamline decisions sometimes.
 
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Maybe there's a recipe in there for building a winning team...:unsure:

1. Estimate the output of all the players.
2. Pick the 30 lowest $pp players to fill the side (ie. Best value for money). Likely reams of cash left over.
3. One by one, remove the worst value player in the team and replace them with the best value player that you would not expect to have to trade (ie. Keeper for their line).
4. Keep going until you run out of cash and then move the lowest scoring players to the bench.

Probably gets you a pretty standard looking 12 prem GnR really :p
Definitely could be a team that is worth running in the shadows to see results!
 
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I havent got a problem with mid pricers as such, I just dont think you pick them in the line thats likely stacked with rookie priced cash generation, rules out the Rowell/Berry/Caldwell/Polec picks for me.
What if it's the best cash we get all year? What if it's D Rioli vs Polec?
I'm an unashamed cash cow chaser and never understood the structure thread as my structure doesn't settle until the last teams are announced in rnd 1. If the preseason info is correct, and I don't just mean a coach pumping up a 60kg 19 year old out the WAFL colts, then I'm looking at Neale, rookie, rookie, etc. in my midfield!!!
Impromptu started driving this wagon years ago didn't he?
 

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Maybe there's a recipe in there for building a winning team...:unsure:

1. Estimate the output of all the players.
2. Pick the 30 lowest $pp players to fill the side (ie. Best value for money). Likely reams of cash left over.
3. One by one, remove the worst value player in the team and replace them with the best value player that you would not expect to have to trade (ie. Keeper for their line).
4. Keep going until you run out of cash and then move the lowest scoring players to the bench.

Probably gets you a pretty standard looking 12 prem GnR really :p
I think you could do a hell of a lot worse!

You’d probably want 2-3 captain options to be included, and perhaps to focus more on top scoring for #3, but otherwise I’d say this is pretty close to textbook.
 
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Maybe there's a recipe in there for building a winning team...:unsure:

1. Estimate the output of all the players.
2. Pick the 30 lowest $pp players to fill the side (ie. Best value for money). Likely reams of cash left over.
3. One by one, remove the worst value player in the team and replace them with the best value player that you would not expect to have to trade (ie. Keeper for their line).
4. Keep going until you run out of cash and then move the lowest scoring players to the bench.

Probably gets you a pretty standard looking 12 prem GnR really :p
You just need to add the "pick 2 captaincy options" at the top and you have pretty much recreated the @Rowsus recipe that he has advocated on this site for many years...
 
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What if it's the best cash we get all year? What if it's D Rioli vs Polec?
I'm an unashamed cash cow chaser and never understood the structure thread as my structure doesn't settle until the last teams are announced in rnd 1. If the preseason info is correct, and I don't just mean a coach pumping up a 60kg 19 year old out the WAFL colts, then I'm looking at Neale, rookie, rookie, etc. in my midfield!!!
Impromptu started driving this wagon years ago didn't he?
I just think people are way too reactive in the pre season in all honesty, Polec for example is a guy that got dropped and subsequently delisted from a side that won the spoon, they re rookie him and he plays one good game in match sim and suddenly hes the best thing since sliced bread.
 
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I just think people are way too reactive in the pre season in all honesty, Polec for example is a guy that got dropped and subsequently delisted from a side that won the spoon, they re rookie him and he plays one good game in match sim and suddenly hes the best thing since sliced bread.
Good point, he is cheap though, so could be an option if praccy matches are any good.
Not that I picked him, but a couple years ago Macpherson lit up the pre-season, then did absolutely SFA come season proper.
 
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Good point, he is cheap though, so could be an option if praccy matches are any good.
Not that I picked him, but a couple years ago Macpherson lit up the pre-season, then did absolutely SFA come season proper.
North couldnt buy a win and Polec was running around in stratch matches, need to see more than lighting up a match sim where half the opposition are 2nd and 3rd round picks.
 
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I just think people are way too reactive in the pre season in all honesty, Polec for example is a guy that got dropped and subsequently delisted from a side that won the spoon, they re rookie him and he plays one good game in match sim and suddenly hes the best thing since sliced bread.
In some ways it's a similar story to Hall last year, although unlike Hall Polec has actually played in a decent side for part of his career. Both are potentially damaging, contest averse receiver types who've only ever run one way. They're not the kind of senior player you really want running around doing as they please while younger players are left to take up the defensive slack.

That said, North's lack of options at half back gave Hall a chance last season so the same could happen on the wing for Polec. I can't see why it should though, surely the oversupply of midfield talent will mean they're always looking for somewhere to fit the 2nd and 3rd tier mids.
 
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In some ways it's a similar story to Hall last year, although unlike Hall Polec has actually played in a decent side for part of his career. Both are potentially damaging, contest averse receiver types who've only ever run one way. They're not the kind of senior player you really want running around doing as they please while younger players are left to take up the defensive slack.

That said, North's lack of options at half back gave Hall a chance last season so the same could happen on the wing for Polec. I can't see why it should though, surely the oversupply of midfield talent will mean they're always looking for somewhere to fit the 2nd and 3rd tier mids.
The thing I find awkward with Polec is that if he / his management didn't go chasing the contract $$$ ...

- Then he could very well have still been playing his role at PTA ... got no sympathy for the situation he is in ...
 
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