Discussion 2022: Rookie Discussion
- Thread starter Shannon
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Thought there were comments from NM offical saying Comben and Larlkey will be the big forwards and CCJ competing against Xerri as third tall/R2 role. Zurhaar a bit shorter, so maybe North plan to go taller. Dont expect great scoring being a NM forward (which is contradictory to starting with JHF, yet he is new and shiny).
Nice, I wasn't aware of the comments tbh.
Just think that on gameday running all of Comben, Larkey and CCJ as forward targets as well as Goldy will make us too big. I would think CCJ gets the nod ahead of Comben but possibly the coaches see it otherwise 🤔.
Oh and don't worry about JHF, he's a completely different type of player. Think he'll have a role as a HF where he pushes up into contests but stays as an attacking option forward side as link/burst player.
Just think that on gameday running all of Comben, Larkey and CCJ as forward targets as well as Goldy will make us too big. I would think CCJ gets the nod ahead of Comben but possibly the coaches see it otherwise 🤔.
Oh and don't worry about JHF, he's a completely different type of player. Think he'll have a role as a HF where he pushes up into contests but stays as an attacking option forward side as link/burst player.
Noble was talking out of his arse IMHO, I watched their match sim and JHF will play 20 games this year, super player and a weapon forward of centre and on the ball, can tell hes been playing footy against men just looks more physically ready than some of the other fancied options, isn't afraid of body contact and puts himself in dangerous positions, has the speed and strength to break clear of congested situations which is huge aswell.
Slightly off topic, but with Greenwood, CCJ, JHF and maybe a fit Polec to add some pace and penetration on the wings, we've almost picked up 4 players that slot straight into the 22.
Going to be a different looking North side this year
Going to be a different looking North side this year
Whilst I agree in principle he's played plenty of VFL and SANFL games to know what you are getting, the guys almost 23 hes not exactly a kid anymore, needs to bulk up for mine if he wants to make it in the AFL and regularly impact games.
If I was the Pies I'd be pumping games into Kelly and Henry just think they are players with higher ceilings with youth on their side.
If I was the Pies I'd be pumping games into Kelly and Henry just think they are players with higher ceilings with youth on their side.
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Probably should have done a summary, but this is how I'm lining up for now. Usually theres a few that pop up out of nowhere post AAMI games so still early (McNeil, Scott, Kosi last year)
Def:
Hinge - Great preseason and role on a wing/hb is there for him. 23 y.o.
Dean - OK preseason so far, good interceptor. Confident he fills the void left by roughead for at least a month.
O'driscoll - Worked really hard over the o***eason, hired a PT when 2021 season ended. Injury free unlike last year and playing a mix of inside/outside, did well in the last intra. Freo website said chance for R1.
Skinner - Port need his height back there, just they already have established KPDs there. I'd imagine hes a chance but don't know.
Confident we get Hinge and Dean, and reasonable chance for Skinner/O'Driscoll.
Mids
JHF/Daicos - Locked. Don't think you have to pick them but there JS should be sound and make at least 150k. Both can have big spike games.
F. Macrae - Like him, problem is where do you draw the line for expensive rookies. Body has changed a lot and having a good preseason, monitoring in trial games closely.
D. Stephens - Locked, just needs to play well in the AAMI games. VFL numbers are good and role vacated by Dawson.
Erasmus - Taking him over Ward and Hobbs, better junior numbers and played more footy the past two years. Less competition for mid mins.
G.Clark - Not sure we get him, seems to be tracking okay though
C. Stephens -Unproven but high pick 2 years ago and good size/contested ball winner. Having good preseason, been injured for 2 years
All 3 of JHF/Daicos/Stephens on field, Erasmus/Macrae if spare money, unsure on a few 123k guys, will pick G.Clark/C.Stephens/Carrol if named.
Fwd
SDK - About the only guy who can play 2nd KPD on the list I think, Jenkins said he's a lock to play. Slow burn.
F.Evans - HF who has been in the system a few years. good preseason but probably low scoring. Training with firsts, Miers injured. Bench only.
Hollands - Playing in 2nd team in match sim, not good. Locked if named of course.
Rachele - I'm not paying 180k for a vic draftee who needs to work on his fitness playing forward for a rebuilding team
Should get SDK, probably Evans. This is looking pretty grim if we don't get Hollands. Might need a bolter like C.Parker or something.
Def:
Hinge - Great preseason and role on a wing/hb is there for him. 23 y.o.
Dean - OK preseason so far, good interceptor. Confident he fills the void left by roughead for at least a month.
O'driscoll - Worked really hard over the o***eason, hired a PT when 2021 season ended. Injury free unlike last year and playing a mix of inside/outside, did well in the last intra. Freo website said chance for R1.
Skinner - Port need his height back there, just they already have established KPDs there. I'd imagine hes a chance but don't know.
Confident we get Hinge and Dean, and reasonable chance for Skinner/O'Driscoll.
Mids
JHF/Daicos - Locked. Don't think you have to pick them but there JS should be sound and make at least 150k. Both can have big spike games.
F. Macrae - Like him, problem is where do you draw the line for expensive rookies. Body has changed a lot and having a good preseason, monitoring in trial games closely.
D. Stephens - Locked, just needs to play well in the AAMI games. VFL numbers are good and role vacated by Dawson.
Erasmus - Taking him over Ward and Hobbs, better junior numbers and played more footy the past two years. Less competition for mid mins.
G.Clark - Not sure we get him, seems to be tracking okay though
C. Stephens -Unproven but high pick 2 years ago and good size/contested ball winner. Having good preseason, been injured for 2 years
All 3 of JHF/Daicos/Stephens on field, Erasmus/Macrae if spare money, unsure on a few 123k guys, will pick G.Clark/C.Stephens/Carrol if named.
Fwd
SDK - About the only guy who can play 2nd KPD on the list I think, Jenkins said he's a lock to play. Slow burn.
F.Evans - HF who has been in the system a few years. good preseason but probably low scoring. Training with firsts, Miers injured. Bench only.
Hollands - Playing in 2nd team in match sim, not good. Locked if named of course.
Rachele - I'm not paying 180k for a vic draftee who needs to work on his fitness playing forward for a rebuilding team
Should get SDK, probably Evans. This is looking pretty grim if we don't get Hollands. Might need a bolter like C.Parker or something.
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I mean if it makes you feel better, I talked myself into that failure as well and probably would do it again
The other huge factor this year with those two especially is the DPP changes. Daicos gets DEF and JHF gets forward and you've got much better D6/F6 through to the byes with the added kicker that they're both in the final bye round.
Normally it's those spots rather than the midfield spot that forces desperation moves. I'm not actually looking at either of them as r7 trade targets unless they have an absurd month and generate unsustainable cash gains as I see both as strong rookies worth fielding on a consistent basis who should play when fit and able.
Realistically if they're not getting the DPP they've either failed completely and aren't playing or are playing pure midfield roles and, well, that's even better!!!
To be fair, last year's top 10 included 6 KPP and a guy with an ACL. Phillips made 80k, way too late to matter though, Campbell made 60k before injury cut his run short and Perkins made over 100k. It was a poor group but this year's crop is a much more midfield based group.
2018 wasn't a bad group at all. Rayner made 140k, Brayshaw made 110k, Dow made 120k, Cerra made 170k, Stephenson made 150k and Clark made 130k. That's a pretty damn good group. Once again I think we see Rowell and Walsh types and set our standard on them.
Making 200k from a rookie is an outstanding outcome but it's not common. Having the above guys playing 15 odd games generally and making you 100-150k has a lot of value.
As always, I'd always prefer to pay 100k than 200k for an equivalent rookie but the premium guys do generally play more games and that gives them a strong chance to make cash. I also think this year more than ever the job security is going to be big because I still expect covid to create havoc.
Probably why all my drafts have still had a lot of the 220-280k types in them as well as a lot of premium rookies.
The other huge factor this year with those two especially is the DPP changes. Daicos gets DEF and JHF gets forward and you've got much better D6/F6 through to the byes with the added kicker that they're both in the final bye round.
Normally it's those spots rather than the midfield spot that forces desperation moves. I'm not actually looking at either of them as r7 trade targets unless they have an absurd month and generate unsustainable cash gains as I see both as strong rookies worth fielding on a consistent basis who should play when fit and able.
Realistically if they're not getting the DPP they've either failed completely and aren't playing or are playing pure midfield roles and, well, that's even better!!!
To be fair, last year's top 10 included 6 KPP and a guy with an ACL. Phillips made 80k, way too late to matter though, Campbell made 60k before injury cut his run short and Perkins made over 100k. It was a poor group but this year's crop is a much more midfield based group.
2018 wasn't a bad group at all. Rayner made 140k, Brayshaw made 110k, Dow made 120k, Cerra made 170k, Stephenson made 150k and Clark made 130k. That's a pretty damn good group. Once again I think we see Rowell and Walsh types and set our standard on them.
Making 200k from a rookie is an outstanding outcome but it's not common. Having the above guys playing 15 odd games generally and making you 100-150k has a lot of value.
As always, I'd always prefer to pay 100k than 200k for an equivalent rookie but the premium guys do generally play more games and that gives them a strong chance to make cash. I also think this year more than ever the job security is going to be big because I still expect covid to create havoc.
Probably why all my drafts have still had a lot of the 220-280k types in them as well as a lot of premium rookies.
I don't agree that any of the expensive rookies except Stephenson and maybe Cerra were worth picking in 2018. How much the players make for the season isn't really relevant imo, what matters is if they made money early on when we're going to trade them out. Rayner peaked making 93K by round 7 and then dropped off in price by round 10, Brayshaw had made 90K at round 10, Dow made 100k by round 10, Cerra made 120k by round 10 (unfortunately didn't debut) Clark made 88K by round 11, LDU was averaging 38 in his early run of games. Stepehnson made 154K by round 7, a very good pick if you started him. As they get more games their scoring improves but that doesn't help us, we need them to score well from the get go.
I agree in many seasons gone by there have been good expensive rookies who are worth starting but I like to exercise caution and have them show me why they're worth starting as it can certainly backfire.
