Discussion 2022: Rookie Discussion

[pizza safety]

Some much caution on these guys. Another NM intra game, more positive news on JHF. 80 ave is higher than whats needed I think.

70 ave gets you to $350k, however, last 5% is hard so thats $330k. However, a well timed spike game around game 5-6 would see over $350k even with a 70 average.

Others have quite rightly raised the price you pay, the return on that price and where you spend the extra money saved. however, also need to take into account probability fo the player getting to that value.

Do I think probability of those two above $300k is high, yes, $350k of value, maybe 50/50. However, Goater could be picked and I may start him, however history suggest his probability at that price is 50/50 to still be getting games after 3-4 weeks.

Interesting on that link which is very good, that Libba was seen as needing to be a keeper. I started him at $357k and made $120k from memory. Probability was high to make money, had a free option on keeper status, I thought it was ok.

Big difference between that discussion on a $350k player (which is Rowell this year) vs a $202k player.

I have always found the quasi traps to be the $275k players. Last year I went with Butts at $175k whilst many went the more expensive defensive option and whilst he had the shaky start, was an ok pick in the end.

Also, they may receive DPP benefit this year which can significant value if we can move them to def/fwd. Too often I have upgraded to a premium def/fwd due to poor quality rookies on this lines, yet the premium (Bolton, maybe a Houston for some) was fools gold. Now we can move these guys to plug the gap until the last bye. Just some thoughts.

I'm honestly a bit worried about paying anything over $150k for any player from VIC who has missed significant football the past two years. Logically they should be less developed than some other players. I'm therefore not sure Daicos will be worth picking.

JHF playing mostly forward at North probably wont be as SC friendly as Daicos playing mostly in the backline at Collingwood. But even if he won't have as good a role as Daicos he is bigger bodied and has played the last two seasons, including last season against grown men. If you watch his highlights he looks like he'll hit the ground running at AFL level, looks like a big guy and a physical freak. Daicos looks incredibly skilful but I do worry that he could be a bit underdeveloped (along with a lot of VIC players)

Atm I prefer JHF but don't love him at the price either. We didn't get to see him at the u/18 carnival which is really the measuring stick for SC scoring ability heading into year one. You're going in a bit blind as a consequence.

I think both have their flaws, JHF role and Daicos development, so whilst I might pick one I doubt I will pick both.....unless the practice game changes my mind.

 

[Manikato1]

Some much caution on these guys. Another NM intra game, more positive news on JHF. 80 ave is higher than whats needed I think.

70 ave gets you to $350k, however, last 5% is hard so thats $330k. However, a well timed spike game around game 5-6 would see over $350k even with a 70 average.

Others have quite rightly raised the price you pay, the return on that price and where you spend the extra money saved. however, also need to take into account probability fo the player getting to that value.

Do I think probability of those two above $300k is high, yes, $350k of value, maybe 50/50. However, Goater could be picked and I may start him, however history suggest his probability at that price is 50/50 to still be getting games after 3-4 weeks.

Interesting on that link which is very good, that Libba was seen as needing to be a keeper. I started him at $357k and made $120k from memory. Probability was high to make money, had a free option on keeper status, I thought it was ok.

Big difference between that discussion on a $350k player (which is Rowell this year) vs a $202k player.

I have always found the quasi traps to be the $275k players. Last year I went with Butts at $175k whilst many went the more expensive defensive option and whilst he had the shaky start, was an ok pick in the end.

Also, they may receive DPP benefit this year which can significant value if we can move them to def/fwd. Too often I have upgraded to a premium def/fwd due to poor quality rookies on this lines, yet the premium (Bolton, maybe a Houston for some) was fools gold. Now we can move these guys to plug the gap until the last bye. Just some thoughts.

Here is an observation about The Hornbag in terms of value and cash production. Sam Walsh is probably a suitable benchmark in recent time for high priced rookies. Rookies often peak about seven games in and true to form Walsh did just that. Started at $207,300 and hit $452,600 in game seven for a fabulous increase of $245,300. Part of that increase included scores of 112,123 and 112 from rounds 3-5 and post round five his ave was 100. His rolling three round ave never fell below 88 for the entire season. So if you get your crystal spheroid out or look at the bottom of your cup of Liptons and it tells you The Hornbag is as good as Walsh just get on now. If you think he is only 75% as good as Walsh I would still be getting on.

 

[Juzzo]

I probably shouldn't have put Dow's name to the numbers

The point is more that we look at guys and go "he needs to average 75 to work" when Dow (ignoring the timing) averaged 55 and "worked" (again, ignoring timing).

The fact that he stunk it up and got dropped is what ruined him as a pick but when he did come back he actually was able to generate cash despite the overall average.

So a guy like JHF for example could easily play the first 10 games, average 55 and make 150k still. I have significantly higher hopes on him but the point remains.



I was and I did... Ultimately I hoped for more from him. I also talked down Cripps and took him anyway. I'd be good at this stuff if I listened to both sides of my brain and picked the correct one more often




Even more amazing is my ability to talk someone else out of him and myself into him.

It's funny that someone seeing one line sees all the fault they need to avoid a player and I'm spending the rest of it convincing myself to make the mistake!



West also a good sign, awkward price but with a really solid role I saw enough last year to think he can score sufficiently. Would be more on the "if the rookies aren't there" path for mine than a legit "want to pick" but great to have him there.

Yeo will forever tempt me. Can't do it but oh so tempted.

Love reading your posts mate, but please don't talk me into a Tom Phillips type pick this year.

 

[Juzzo]

Here is an observation about The Hornbag in terms of value and cash production. Sam Walsh is probably a suitable benchmark in recent time for high priced rookies. Rookies often peak about seven games in and true to form Walsh did just that. Started at $207,300 and hit $452,600 in game seven for a fabulous increase of $245,300. Part of that increase included scores of 112,123 and 112 from rounds 3-5 and post round five his ave was 100. His rolling three round ave never fell below 88 for the entire season. So if you get your crystal spheroid out or look at the bottom of your cup of Liptons and it tells you The Hornbag is as good as Walsh just get on now. If you think he is only 75% as good as Walsh I would still be getting on.

Haha, you should take part in the "creative writing thread" or whatever it was called during the off season, very funny stuff re Collingwood jumper. You have a knack for it I reckon.

 

[Bermi]

I'm honestly a bit worried about paying anything over $150k for any player from VIC who has missed significant football the past two years. Logically they should be less developed than some other players. I'm therefore not sure Daicos will be worth picking.

JHF playing mostly forward at North probably wont be as SC friendly as Daicos playing mostly in the backline at Collingwood. But even if he won't have as good a role as Daicos he is bigger bodied and has played the last two seasons, including last season against grown men. If you watch his highlights he looks like he'll hit the ground running at AFL level, looks like a big guy and a physical freak. Daicos looks incredibly skilful but I do worry that he could be a bit underdeveloped (along with a lot of VIC players)

Atm I prefer JHF but don't love him at the price either. We didn't get to see him at the u/18 carnival which is really the measuring stick for SC scoring ability heading into year one. You're going in a bit blind as a consequence.

I think both have their flaws, JHF role and Daicos development, so whilst I might pick one I doubt I will pick both.....unless the practice game changes my mind.

Hawthorn's $180k Victorian Ward can be included as well.

I don't think the practice games will tell us much about their stamina levels. They all are very skillful and they play for teams that are rebuilding, so they should get plenty of opportunity to get lots of games, even is they are rested for some rounds.

They are high on my list for selection and I see them as being good cash cows.

 

[Vicwood]

He laces up round 1. Who is Noble trying to fool. Last time i looked 63% ownership, lot of coin for a rookie who may only give you 65+ and
maybe rested a few times before the byes. Would be a brave call to fade the lad, but I am thinking about it.

You have the lad Goater now appearing in the discussions and lining up across HB. Any Roos Members with more intel.?

 

[Herbie66]

Any training Intel on Paul Curtis ?

 

[Herbie66]

People querying starting JHF & Daicos , would have thought they had the best JS of all of the rookies.

Isn't that what is all about especially for the first 6-8 rounds , JS over price ?

Not sure Ward , Stephens , Eramus , Hobbs etc etc have better JS than the two of them in any case.

Cheapies bring talked about , might not even play regularly themselves.

 

[Vicwood]

With Roughead now missing 5 rounds, Kreuger might be needed down back. Kreuger said that he is prepared to play in defence. There are a number of player that will be trialed up forward, it's not a guarantee that he is a lock for the forward position.

Could Kreuger play down back?
While Collingwood has already earmarked Kreuger for a role up forward, he said he’s not afraid to be swung down back if he needs to.

One factor omnipresent in the mind of all supporters is that Jordan Roughead, who recently finished eighth in the Pies’ best and fairest, is closer to the end than the start of his career.

Roughead has been a rock at full-back ever since crossing over from the Bulldogs, but he’ll be 31 by the start of next season, and there’s no obvious replacement once he retires.

Kreuger trained as a key defender this year in a bid to make his debut, which paid dividends when he played his first two games towards the end of the season.

Getting to learn under a Hall of Fame defender like his backline coach Matthew Scarlett would only improve his knowledge and skill at playing the position as well.

Collingwood’s back six is currently in good shape, with the likes of Roughead, Brayden Maynard, and Isaac Quaynor looking to back up strong campaigns, while Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe will be hoping to get a clean run with injuries.

But if no player puts their hand up to take over for Roughead in a few years time, Kreuger could find his place in the team in defence.

AFL Trade Period: Can Nathan Kreuger fix Collingwood’s forward woes? (theinnersanctum.com.au)

Collingwood need to find more goals. Kruger Forward, Moore to FB.

 

[Backbone]

People querying starting JHF & Daicos , would have thought they had the best JS of all of the rookies.

Isn't that what is all about especially for the first 6-8 rounds , JS over price ?

Not sure Ward , Stephens , Eramus , Hobbs etc etc have better JS than the two of them in any case.

Cheapies bring talked about , might not even play regularly themselves.

I’d add Erasmus into that mix
He has been talked up basically since day 1 of Freo’s pre season
He’ll play all year imo
Has the ability to play forward which may limit his scoring potential but yeah another one too look at. Won’t be as good as jhf forward or in the middle but I like him over the others you mentioned
Hoping Ward is locked in after the pre season games as I think he has the potential to average the most of the crop

 

[Herbie66]

With Roughead now missing 5 rounds, Kreuger might be needed down back. Kreuger said that he is prepared to play in defence. There are a number of player that will be trialed up forward, it's not a guarantee that he is a lock for the forward position.

Could Kreuger play down back?
While Collingwood has already earmarked Kreuger for a role up forward, he said he’s not afraid to be swung down back if he needs to.

One factor omnipresent in the mind of all supporters is that Jordan Roughead, who recently finished eighth in the Pies’ best and fairest, is closer to the end than the start of his career.

Roughead has been a rock at full-back ever since crossing over from the Bulldogs, but he’ll be 31 by the start of next season, and there’s no obvious replacement once he retires.

Kreuger trained as a key defender this year in a bid to make his debut, which paid dividends when he played his first two games towards the end of the season.

Getting to learn under a Hall of Fame defender like his backline coach Matthew Scarlett would only improve his knowledge and skill at playing the position as well.

Collingwood’s back six is currently in good shape, with the likes of Roughead, Brayden Maynard, and Isaac Quaynor looking to back up strong campaigns, while Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe will be hoping to get a clean run with injuries.

But if no player puts their hand up to take over for Roughead in a few years time, Kreuger could find his place in the team in defence.

AFL Trade Period: Can Nathan Kreuger fix Collingwood’s forward woes? (theinnersanctum.com.au)

Kreuger back , might open up a spot for the American Pie 😀

Cameron , Checkers & Cox up forward.

Hopefully we just play Magden , Howe & Moore back with the rotating 4-5.

 

[Professor]

Any training Intel on Paul Curtis ?

Who?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1491932842309263369

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/NMFCOfficial/status/1491932842309263369

 

[Herbie66]

Who?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1491932842309263369

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/NMFCOfficial/status/1491932842309263369

Seen enough 😀 lock him in

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I'm honestly a bit worried about paying anything over $150k for any player from VIC who has missed significant football the past two years. Logically they should be less developed than some other players. I'm therefore not sure Daicos will be worth picking.

JHF playing mostly forward at North probably wont be as SC friendly as Daicos playing mostly in the backline at Collingwood. But even if he won't have as good a role as Daicos he is bigger bodied and has played the last two seasons, including last season against grown men. If you watch his highlights he looks like he'll hit the ground running at AFL level, looks like a big guy and a physical freak. Daicos looks incredibly skilful but I do worry that he could be a bit underdeveloped (along with a lot of VIC players)

Atm I prefer JHF but don't love him at the price either. We didn't get to see him at the u/18 carnival which is really the measuring stick for SC scoring ability heading into year one. You're going in a bit blind as a consequence.

I think both have their flaws, JHF role and Daicos development, so whilst I might pick one I doubt I will pick both.....unless the practice game changes my mind.

Here is an observation about The Hornbag in terms of value and cash production. Sam Walsh is probably a suitable benchmark in recent time for high priced rookies. Rookies often peak about seven games in and true to form Walsh did just that. Started at $207,300 and hit $452,600 in game seven for a fabulous increase of $245,300. Part of that increase included scores of 112,123 and 112 from rounds 3-5 and post round five his ave was 100. His rolling three round ave never fell below 88 for the entire season. So if you get your crystal spheroid out or look at the bottom of your cup of Liptons and it tells you The Hornbag is as good as Walsh just get on now. If you think he is only 75% as good as Walsh I would still be getting on.

Plenty off good discussions each way. However, the Vic issue applies to a ton of rookies, Rachelle in our fwd lines or Goater who has aerobic issues question marks. If not having faith in them, then it will need to be a large drop in premiums and go with Berry, Rayner, Coleman, Answerth, Rowell type players or that backline key position type player who gives 45-60 type scores.

I am finding my team movements being the attractiveness of a Thomas, Heeney or Butter up from a $275k player and and Coleman down and hoping a Gould/Kelly get a game.

 

[pizza safety]

People querying starting JHF & Daicos , would have thought they had the best JS of all of the rookies.

Isn't that what is all about especially for the first 6-8 rounds , JS over price ?

Not sure Ward , Stephens , Eramus , Hobbs etc etc have better JS than the two of them in any case.

Cheapies bring talked about , might not even play regularly themselves.

JS is great but it’s not enough in isolation to pick players, there was no high price first year rookie last year who was worth picking and nor was there in 2018. Most years there’s only a couple because you need everything to go right to work out at 200K. The return on investment is poor as well. I have no doubt these guys could work I’m just not sure I want to start two of them given there’s a big cloud over how good they are compared to how much we knew about Walsh and Rowell

 

[pizza safety]

Hawthorn's $180k Victorian Ward can be included as well.

I don't think the practice games will tell us much about their stamina levels. They all are very skillful and they play for teams that are rebuilding, so they should get plenty of opportunity to get lots of games, even is they are rested for some rounds.

They are high on my list for selection and I see them as being good cash cows.

Plenty off good discussions each way. However, the Vic issue applies to a ton of rookies, Rachelle in our fwd lines or Goater who has aerobic issues question marks. If not having faith in them, then it will need to be a large drop in premiums and go with Berry, Rayner, Coleman, Answerth, Rowell type players or that backline key position type player who gives 45-60 type scores.

I am finding my team movements being the attractiveness of a Thomas, Heeney or Butter up from a $275k player and and Coleman down and hoping a Gould/Kelly get a game.

Sorry @GrainFedBeef I accidentally quoted you as opposed to the person asking about JHF and Daicos in particular but we’re on a similar topic.

When it comes to the VIC rookies I’m not saying don’t pick any but we should be cautious about paying top dollar for them regardless of job security. I’m okay picking 150K vic players around the Hobbs price (although still cautious) but less comfortable with the 180K+ ones. I still reckon we’ll need to pick one of the high priced rookies, at the moment my side has JHF. I think with some mature options up forward as well as down back and guys like Berry and Dylan Stephens in the middle I think picking 2 or 3 of these 150K+ Vic mids could easily be avoidable. Picking one is probably unavoidable.

You are getting job security from these players but that’s not enough on its own. The 2018 season was filled with rookies with good JS who were poor picks. Last year the only high priced rookie who appeared worth picking was Campbell and he was not worth picking.

Still a lot to play out but just like last year with no real data on these VIC players I see it as a bit of a roulette game.

 

[PC]

Sorry @GrainFedBeef I accidentally quoted you as opposed to the person asking about JHF and Daicos in particular but we’re on a similar topic.

When it comes to the VIC rookies I’m not saying don’t pick any but we should be cautious about paying top dollar for them regardless of job security. I’m okay picking 150K vic players around the Hobbs price (although still cautious) but less comfortable with the 180K+ ones. I still reckon we’ll need to pick one of the high priced rookies, at the moment my side has JHF. I think with some mature options up forward as well as down back and guys like Berry and Dylan Stephens in the middle I think picking 2 or 3 of these 150K+ Vic mids could easily be avoidable. Picking one is probably unavoidable.

You are getting job security from these players but that’s not enough on its own. The 2018 season was filled with rookies with good JS who were poor picks. Last year the only high priced rookie who appeared worth picking was Campbell and he was not worth picking.

Still a lot to play out but just like last year with no real data on these VIC players I see it as a bit of a roulette game.

The good thing about starting expensive rookies is you can swap them rd 3 if they are rubbish

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Sorry @GrainFedBeef I accidentally quoted you as opposed to the person asking about JHF and Daicos in particular but we’re on a similar topic.

When it comes to the VIC rookies I’m not saying don’t pick any but we should be cautious about paying top dollar for them regardless of job security. I’m okay picking 150K vic players around the Hobbs price (although still cautious) but less comfortable with the 180K+ ones. I still reckon we’ll need to pick one of the high priced rookies, at the moment my side has JHF. I think with some mature options up forward as well as down back and guys like Berry and Dylan Stephens in the middle I think picking 2 or 3 of these 150K+ Vic mids could easily be avoidable. Picking one is probably unavoidable.

You are getting job security from these players but that’s not enough on its own. The 2018 season was filled with rookies with good JS who were poor picks. Last year the only high priced rookie who appeared worth picking was Campbell and he was not worth picking.

Still a lot to play out but just like last year with no real data on these VIC players I see it as a bit of a roulette game.

All good at my end. Absolutely fair point, TOG in preseason game, Weight (min 80kg) and scoring relative to price to assess return on invested capital plus role all more an focus than ever. Plus eye test.

Jordan Clarke/Dow didn't work out as expected despite price invested and I traded out cheap ones like Brockman, Sharp (GC), Kozzi (agh, Fullarton early. Rowe survived, the small forward can be a killer (Bruhn also).

I think we do have solid options in Coleman, Berry, Rayner this year who should make $120k, maybe more, if we dont want to go rookies. Will need to be 11 premiums including any $450-510k if we go that route.

 

[wogitalia]

Love reading your posts mate, but please don't talk me into a Tom Phillips type pick this year.

I mean if it makes you feel better, I talked myself into that failure as well and probably would do it again

People querying starting JHF & Daicos , would have thought they had the best JS of all of the rookies.

Isn't that what is all about especially for the first 6-8 rounds , JS over price ?

Not sure Ward , Stephens , Eramus , Hobbs etc etc have better JS than the two of them in any case.

Cheapies bring talked about , might not even play regularly themselves.

The other huge factor this year with those two especially is the DPP changes. Daicos gets DEF and JHF gets forward and you've got much better D6/F6 through to the byes with the added kicker that they're both in the final bye round.

Normally it's those spots rather than the midfield spot that forces desperation moves. I'm not actually looking at either of them as r7 trade targets unless they have an absurd month and generate unsustainable cash gains as I see both as strong rookies worth fielding on a consistent basis who should play when fit and able.

Realistically if they're not getting the DPP they've either failed completely and aren't playing or are playing pure midfield roles and, well, that's even better!!!

JS is great but it’s not enough in isolation to pick players, there was no high price first year rookie last year who was worth picking and nor was there in 2018. Most years there’s only a couple because you need everything to go right to work out at 200K. The return on investment is poor as well. I have no doubt these guys could work I’m just not sure I want to start two of them given there’s a big cloud over how good they are compared to how much we knew about Walsh and Rowell

To be fair, last year's top 10 included 6 KPP and a guy with an ACL. Phillips made 80k, way too late to matter though, Campbell made 60k before injury cut his run short and Perkins made over 100k. It was a poor group but this year's crop is a much more midfield based group.

2018 wasn't a bad group at all. Rayner made 140k, Brayshaw made 110k, Dow made 120k, Cerra made 170k, Stephenson made 150k and Clark made 130k. That's a pretty damn good group. Once again I think we see Rowell and Walsh types and set our standard on them.

Making 200k from a rookie is an outstanding outcome but it's not common. Having the above guys playing 15 odd games generally and making you 100-150k has a lot of value.

As always, I'd always prefer to pay 100k than 200k for an equivalent rookie but the premium guys do generally play more games and that gives them a strong chance to make cash. I also think this year more than ever the job security is going to be big because I still expect covid to create havoc.

Probably why all my drafts have still had a lot of the 220-280k types in them as well as a lot of premium rookies.

 

[big fella]

Anyone got any forward rookies that are looking promising and might get an early game?