Discussion 2022: Rookie Discussion
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I think we get way too caught up on average for rookies, it's just not that important.
Dow averaged 55 last year but still made 130k from a 200k starting point, for example. Rowe another, averaged 58 for the season but made almost 200k.
It's much more important that they show the ability to score 80+ and do it for a few weeks. JHF is a very capable forward, if he kicks a couple of goals and has a few touches he's going to get 80s. Daicos off half back and mid is a very strong 75+ average prospect with genuine 100+ scoring potential.
Obviously the cheaper they are the easier it is but all else being equal everyone knows cheaper is better
Dow averaged 55 last year but still made 130k from a 200k starting point, for example. Rowe another, averaged 58 for the season but made almost 200k.
It's much more important that they show the ability to score 80+ and do it for a few weeks. JHF is a very capable forward, if he kicks a couple of goals and has a few touches he's going to get 80s. Daicos off half back and mid is a very strong 75+ average prospect with genuine 100+ scoring potential.
Obviously the cheaper they are the easier it is but all else being equal everyone knows cheaper is better
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I think we get way too caught up on average for rookies, it's just not that important.
Dow averaged 55 last year but still made 130k from a 200k starting point, for example. Rowe another, averaged 58 for the season but made almost 200k.
It's much more important that they show the ability to score 80+ and do it for a few weeks. JHF is a very capable forward, if he kicks a couple of goals and has a few touches he's going to get 80s. Daicos off half back and mid is a very strong 75+ average prospect with genuine 100+ scoring potential.
Obviously the cheaper they are the easier it is but all else being equal everyone knows cheaper is better
Dow averaged 55 last year but still made 130k from a 200k starting point, for example. Rowe another, averaged 58 for the season but made almost 200k.
It's much more important that they show the ability to score 80+ and do it for a few weeks. JHF is a very capable forward, if he kicks a couple of goals and has a few touches he's going to get 80s. Daicos off half back and mid is a very strong 75+ average prospect with genuine 100+ scoring potential.
Obviously the cheaper they are the easier it is but all else being equal everyone knows cheaper is better
@wogitalia - any news on the great mystery man Will Gould?
Of the 123 rookie defenders it looks like Will Kelly, De Koning & Skinner possibly are the best chances at this stage - can't see any rebounding half back types with Nathan O'Driscoll facing an uphill battle to break into Freo's 22.
Of the 123 rookie defenders it looks like Will Kelly, De Koning & Skinner possibly are the best chances at this stage - can't see any rebounding half back types with Nathan O'Driscoll facing an uphill battle to break into Freo's 22.
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Yeah they're ok to weak atm, but every year we see through opportunity or pre-season form a number of others that could get a run like Parker, Hollands, Mead, Smith, McInnes, O'Driscoll, Stephens, Goater and I'm sure others will stick their hand up. I know at the moment it's hard to see but could be a very different landscape in a months time. The point was that there's a lot of hype around JHF and even Daicos but these guys aren't walk up starters.
I think Clark is a better than ok prospect - Shuey & Yeo still have lingering issues, Clark being mature aged/ strong body/performing well at training & playing in a position of real need for WCE makes him a good chance in my opinion. WCE's midfield lacks real grunt, need some old fashioned blue collar workers at the coalface - that's what Clark can provide.
I think we get way too caught up on average for rookies, it's just not that important.
Dow averaged 55 last year but still made 130k from a 200k starting point, for example. Rowe another, averaged 58 for the season but made almost 200k.
It's much more important that they show the ability to score 80+ and do it for a few weeks. JHF is a very capable forward, if he kicks a couple of goals and has a few touches he's going to get 80s. Daicos off half back and mid is a very strong 75+ average prospect with genuine 100+ scoring potential.
Obviously the cheaper they are the easier it is but all else being equal everyone knows cheaper is better
Dow averaged 55 last year but still made 130k from a 200k starting point, for example. Rowe another, averaged 58 for the season but made almost 200k.
It's much more important that they show the ability to score 80+ and do it for a few weeks. JHF is a very capable forward, if he kicks a couple of goals and has a few touches he's going to get 80s. Daicos off half back and mid is a very strong 75+ average prospect with genuine 100+ scoring potential.
Obviously the cheaper they are the easier it is but all else being equal everyone knows cheaper is better
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Appreciate the comments from NM, however, if he is picked round 1 and depending how deep you will run with mid rookies, JHF is one of the top picks I think. Doesn't easily make $150k though. JS has to be pretty good, No.1 pick, ready made body and its NM.
I have Clark and Cooper Stephens on my bench and goater or one more could be picked round 1. Do I drop a JHF or an Eramus, given I am running only 3 premiums in the mids. Thing is people will be picking $275k defenders which may have better JS, yet have durability issues and may just make $150k.
The intra game reports have run very positive for JHF vs a $200k Daicos.
I have Clark and Cooper Stephens on my bench and goater or one more could be picked round 1. Do I drop a JHF or an Eramus, given I am running only 3 premiums in the mids. Thing is people will be picking $275k defenders which may have better JS, yet have durability issues and may just make $150k.
The intra game reports have run very positive for JHF vs a $200k Daicos.
It's easier for a cheaper rookie to spike their profit if that's all you want. Maybe we need another term like Rowsus's PIT average to help us compare rookies. Spike Opportunity! SO. Forward in a poor team is a negative 10. Defender in a poor team is plus 10. Average matters if they're on the ground. I wouldn't want Clark on the ground if it means JHF on the bench when I could have put someone $80k cheaper on the bench waiting for a spike.
I'm not suggesting JHF and Daicos are bad picks but not locked in for me at the moment. We also have some options just above their price that people seem keen on. Berry, Coniglio, Curnow, Coleman, Constable etc and then a bit more to Rowell. I would prefer not to have a $200k player on the bench so they might not fit? Bit to play out yet.
I'm not suggesting JHF and Daicos are bad picks but not locked in for me at the moment. We also have some options just above their price that people seem keen on. Berry, Coniglio, Curnow, Coleman, Constable etc and then a bit more to Rowell. I would prefer not to have a $200k player on the bench so they might not fit? Bit to play out yet.
Lots of good chatter folks.
If I take a look at Daicos and JHF I read it like this: Daicos will probably be rested/managed at some point (1 in 6 or maybe 2 in 9). He's hardly played footy. However, as an accumulator with good skills that looks like being eased in at half-back he's every chance to punch out a 70 average.
JHF played a full season in the SANFL as an 18yo. And smashed out some huuuge SC scores backed by disposals and bags of goals. Also averaged over 4 tackles a game. He won't have the tank to run as a mid anyway so I think he actually scores better by being closer to the goals. So will have some 50s but could land some spike scores as well.
And don't worry about him not making the 22... when some vision comes in from the praccy games we'll all want him in our sides
If I take a look at Daicos and JHF I read it like this: Daicos will probably be rested/managed at some point (1 in 6 or maybe 2 in 9). He's hardly played footy. However, as an accumulator with good skills that looks like being eased in at half-back he's every chance to punch out a 70 average.
JHF played a full season in the SANFL as an 18yo. And smashed out some huuuge SC scores backed by disposals and bags of goals. Also averaged over 4 tackles a game. He won't have the tank to run as a mid anyway so I think he actually scores better by being closer to the goals. So will have some 50s but could land some spike scores as well.
And don't worry about him not making the 22... when some vision comes in from the praccy games we'll all want him in our sides
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Terrible pick, sure, but it was more to illustrate how the cash generation actually works.
The point was more that if I told you Dow at 205k was going to average 55, you'd say hell no. If I told you he makes 130k, you'd be doing very well if you're not taking him. Point is that you can score very poorly in most of your games, just takes a good few weeks and you make the cash needed. Obviously if I told you it would be after getting dropped a few rounds in, you'd be back on hell no but more that the average is a very secondary thing to actually go with.
Those top picks that cost more are far more likely to get extra games, sunk cost fallacy at full play but AFL clubs are definitely going to give them exposure to try and fast track development and also to sell seats.
I've never really understood the hype on him, seems to be an SCS special or something that I don't get. It's got to be close to make or break time and, to his credit, it's a good sign he's still on the list given he hasn't played but the reality is that he's neither a KP or small defender and from what I've seen not really great in the air either for his size, so you end up with a kind of tweener defender playing for a team that has probably the most versatile defender of the last decade in Rampe already filling that hole and then has had the likes of Dawson, Mills and now Blakey to fill the secondary need for that. Cunningham is an excellent small defender. Just not a lot of spots for him.
Personally I liked him more when he was an inside midfield prospect but that has never seemed to take for him.
Be delighted to see him get games and make the most of it but I've never understood why he's been talked up as a fantasy pick to be honest.
The point was more that if I told you Dow at 205k was going to average 55, you'd say hell no. If I told you he makes 130k, you'd be doing very well if you're not taking him. Point is that you can score very poorly in most of your games, just takes a good few weeks and you make the cash needed. Obviously if I told you it would be after getting dropped a few rounds in, you'd be back on hell no but more that the average is a very secondary thing to actually go with.
Those top picks that cost more are far more likely to get extra games, sunk cost fallacy at full play but AFL clubs are definitely going to give them exposure to try and fast track development and also to sell seats.
I've never really understood the hype on him, seems to be an SCS special or something that I don't get. It's got to be close to make or break time and, to his credit, it's a good sign he's still on the list given he hasn't played but the reality is that he's neither a KP or small defender and from what I've seen not really great in the air either for his size, so you end up with a kind of tweener defender playing for a team that has probably the most versatile defender of the last decade in Rampe already filling that hole and then has had the likes of Dawson, Mills and now Blakey to fill the secondary need for that. Cunningham is an excellent small defender. Just not a lot of spots for him.
Personally I liked him more when he was an inside midfield prospect but that has never seemed to take for him.
Be delighted to see him get games and make the most of it but I've never understood why he's been talked up as a fantasy pick to be honest.
