Strategy 2022: Round 3 Trades

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Richmond
So in 2018 @Rowsus put up a brilliant post called Anatomy of an SC Average. The table below is from that post. It is a post I keep in my SC Bible. He can ave 97 and produce 8 games over 107 (and he has two of them already). He is also going to post 11 games of 97 or under.

View attachment 41916
I don't see his scoring as sustainable and I'm betting he'll revert back to the mean, he's not going to score 5 goals a game and with a goal or 2 a game he'll drop back to around that 95 average which is not what I want from now on, happy though to pay up if I'm wrong. I'd rather pull in a MP player that will earn more cash and possibly score similarly but that's just the way I'm rolling.
I don't normally quote myself, but this is exactly what I was alluding to, and why I'm not bringing him in.
 

THCLT

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I don't see his scoring as sustainable and I'm betting he'll revert back to the mean, he's not going to score 5 goals a game and with a goal or 2 a game he'll drop back to around that 95 average which is not what I want from now on, happy though to pay up if I'm wrong.
But Buddy is playing and he scores well when Buddy is in the team...;)

On a more serious note, he's one of many (probably too many) puzzle pieces which I want to complete for R3. The pull towards such players is particularly strong if they were part of the conversation for your starting team, even more so after a hot start as that's the ideal scenario had we started them. On the flipside, those that didn't start them are now torn as on the one hand we feel a sense of regret in not doing so and secondly, that voice on our shoulder is telling us that those big scores are gone so we find ourselves back to square one. For me it's Hall, Short, Hewett, Petracca, Brayshaw, Cripps & Heeney who for one reason or another all missed my starting team. Most of the players I have in their place are doing OK and no reason for me to be concern, however, I can't help but go through the motion of 'it would've been nice had I started some of them'.

What am I going to do now...? Well, I'm trying my best to fit at least 2 of them into my team without destroying the fabric of my starting team. This was a decision I made last round by executing on the Gawn to Witts trade allowing me to use a couple of my $200K+ players to get to them hence keeping my structure and starting keepers.

My suggestion to those experiencing the same dilemma is not to look at the player in isolation but how they fit into your team and structure as a whole. Also, assess whether you're comfortable with the number of core group of cash cows from the R1 crop as experience tells us that they are generally the best batch. Your primary objective right now should always be to sure up your group of cash cows as this pivotal for you to progress your team when we hit upgrade season. That may come at the expense of forgoing some of these players who you would love to be playing in your team for R3. If you feel that you've got enough of that core group of cash cows then by all means try and target a Heeney type. Every team and their coaches will have different plans and different view on players. Read what is posted here to provide an insight into the thought process behind the decision of other coaches but ultimately you need to trust your instinct and execute on what you feel is best for your team going forward.

There's really no such thing as the 'right' or 'wrong' thing to do as we're all making a judgement call at this early point of a season. We're all provided with the same set of data, however, we all view them differently as the 'needs' and 'wants' for our own team are different.

Use the vast amount of information and insights available and make an inform decision for your team. Own it and enjoy the ride. If it works out then post so we can celebrate with you, and if it fails, post so we can all mourn with you. That's the life of a real SC coach!
 
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Owens to Tom Green (short by 1k to get Owens to Cripps unfortunately)

OR

Berry to Brayshaw

OR

Berry to Cripps

My thoughts in order.
1. Feel like Owens needs to move on from my team as non-playing rookies are a hassle for cash gen. Owens to Green means I don't have to flick another trade out the door just to correct Owens (so feels like the safe, smart move)

2. I think Berry gets to the 300-320k mark but not much more than that, fine with him being interchangeable on the bench with JHF, Stephens, Ward etc for a few more weeks and average 70ish.

3. Green and Cripps I expect to even out at the 105-110 ave.

4. But Brayshaw I see pushing 120 average.

5. Leon Cameron is the king of killing midfielders with SC potential
 
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Interesting insights , don't watch too many of the football shows these days , are they still using players to "babysit someone at the stoppages" , remember Pendles used to do that often then once the clearance occured go back to his normal game.

Or they may have evolved the "negating" tactics at stoppages again , a few games I have seen they are using the winger in the "spare" space as cover defensively.

Be actually good if the commentators actually explained some of the tactics used at CBA & stoppages more , Tim Watson actually gives some great insights on how teams setup defensively.
Nailed it Herbie. Berry's job was to negate Merrett at stoppages not follow him around. re Whitfield, it was to stop the defensive handball backwards.

BTW re DPP changes, apparently they happen at end of round 5, start of round 6. Not end of round 6. I remember there was some discussion on this preseason.
 
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Can anyone who has been keeping an eye on Tom Mitchell offer any insights as to his form?
Is he not moving well / not getting as many CBAs / just disposing of it poorly?
Ended up starting him in the shuffle, obviously regret it on results to date, trying to decide whether to keep the faith or just cut bait.
 
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Carlton
So in 2018 @Rowsus put up a brilliant post called Anatomy of an SC Average. The table below is from that post. It is a post I keep in my SC Bible. He can ave 97 and produce 8 games over 107 (and he has two of them already). He is also going to post 11 games of 97 or under.

View attachment 41916
That doesn't factor in role change though.

Heeney is fitter than he has ever been, having had several compromised pre-seasons. Longmire said he would get more "mid" time, and he is. He is getting possessions deep in the backline. These gun players will get more ball if they get to more contests. It's the same as Cripps. The goals are cream, but they come because of the ability to go forward with a mis-match, created by being fitter and not just sitting forward all the time.

Heeney could win the brownlow if he doesn't get injured. That table above is relevant if a player is in the same role as previously, but not in this case.
 
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Thomas to Butters
Gov to Martin
Berry to Green

Team before

View attachment 41919

Team after

View attachment 41920
How much cash in the bank?

By my calculations, if you have about 17k then another option is :-

Thomas > Butters
Gov > Martin
Berry > Heeney (through Rachele, goes to mid bench)

You can then have Stephens on the field at M8 who I think will produce more consistent scores given his role than having to field 1 of Rachele/Martin/Hayes

Green has been awesome to start, would be a nice POD - just not sure if he can sustain it.

Obviously your call, just giving you anther possible option (y)
 
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How much cash in the bank?

By my calculations, if you have about 17k then another option is :-

Thomas > Butters
Gov > Martin
Berry > Heeney (through Rachele, goes to mid bench)

You can then have Stephens on the field at M8 who I think will produce more consistent scores given his role than having to field 1 of Rachele/Martin/Hayes

Green has been awesome to start, would be a nice POD - just not sure if he can sustain it.

Obviously your call, just giving you anther possible option (y)
Haha, they were my preferred trades, but fell 2k short. Thanks anyway, appreciate the feedback by good coaches. (y)
 
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@Vicwood

RE:.....been burned by both the last 2 years..........

It's hard to trust players that let you down in the past, but the difference this year with Heeney and Cripps, is that both had a good preseason and not carrying injuries.
Cripps is the one i am thinking i need. Gezz he looks devastating. Will see how much ownership has increased Thursday Night.

Heeney will not kick 4 goals every week so will target after the byes. Maybe

I have Dale at D3....thinking of doing the unthinkable Dale to Skinner / Owens to Cripps

Leaves

DEF Crisp Short Hewitt Hinge McCartin Skinner ODriscoll SDK.

Cripps Becomes M5 Lipinski- Rowell- Berry (#35 Stephens Ward)

Someone Talk some sense into me.
 
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Hawthorn
Thomas to Butters
Gov to Martin
Berry to Green

Team before

View attachment 41919

Team after

View attachment 41920
That mirrors close to my team after proposed trades this week… except
i have Oliver instead of Cripps
Macrae instead of Steele.
extra rookie instead of Green…pretty certain you have all the right rookies great looking team!
 
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Some big names on this list, Ward is interesting, I'm not sure he's that far of a big score

View attachment 41915
This goes to show how well most teams are going that people are trading out fit premiums. Steele scored 110 and he's 5th on the list. I guess we're all just used to using 2 trades in round 3 because thats what we've always done. Wouldn't be surprised if doing no trades turns out to be the best option for many teams.
 
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