Analysis 2023 Preseason Games

[wogitalia]

Yep, reason why I'm sceptical of Callaghan still. Would have scored at least 30 of his points directly from Gold Coast turnovers where their players kicked the ball to him in the first quarter. The best wingmen peak at what, 95 ppg? What's a second season player going to get playing that role? What's the pass mark at his price, 75?

I'd look more at the bad wingmen, guys like Bailey Scott, Kamdyn McIntosh, Wood, Hinge, JMc, Morrison and McKenzie all averaged in that 70-75 range, 3/4 of that group can't even kick and I don't think anyone would mistake them for stars. Wing is a bad high end role but it does have a very high floor, the bad players score 70, the great ones score 80-105 (Gaff, Clug). On talent Finn is more akin to the elite than the lower guys.

It's also worth noting that all that actually matters is the spike. Someone posted Bowey's numbers, he made 130k from a similar price on one good score which he tanked with an absolute stinker as well. Only takes a good couple of games and he's done the job. You also get a more reliable floor for the on-field aspect which is important early in the season.

Having said that, he's not a must have by any means, I'd suggest those who can get up to Hopper or down to Greene types will probably generate similar cash.

We do tend to just look at scores in preseason, but as you say, the context is very relevant.

Callaghan will be a good player, but he had a good half playing themselves in week 1, then another good game in an open affair against a bottom half team from last year.

Then you look at Hollands (who also played wing) who played 2 games against top 4 sides from last year. The Sydney game was also in the wet, making it less open and flowing.

How can you possibly line up the 2 supercoach performances against each other? Hollands didn't get the ball heaps, but to my eye he was in the TV frame a hell of a lot, which bodes well for good scores against weaker opposition.

I think we make a grave mistake by diminishing a good performance against a bottom 10 side, half the league are bottom half teams, ipso facto approximately half the games will be against them.

This is particularly relevant for GWS who face Adelaide, WCE, Carlton, Essendon and Hawthorn in their first 5, so if he has shown an ability to flat track bully then he's got the perfect start to execute the plan! They should go into 4 of those as firm favourites and the fifth is pretty even on paper, especially with Walsh out. GWS were terrible under an awful coach last year but their list is still very talented, especially at the pointy end.

 

[wogitalia]

Further to this, Sheezel was switched to defence in the last quarter, he had 10 touches and moved to all the right spots for handball receives and moved the ball forward. I think it was Leigh Tudor who said he and Clarko were impressed with how he played in the last quarter and were seriously considering playing him there in round 1.

Would say this has far more impact on Goater/Perez getting a game than anything Ziebell is worried about. Also makes Sheezel a much stronger rookie. He's not Daicos but even at 75% of him he's an elite rookie. The most positive thing is they want him to have the ball, when coaches feel that way, players end up in good spots.

 

[Mudflap]

So many lopsided results does nothing to assist in what might happen in the actual season. Looks like 7 or 8 games with margins greater than 5 goals. And WB have 10 guys that tonned up including Anthony Scott. Now you know you just cannot take much away from a game like that.

One game sample size makes it tough

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

I'd look more at the bad wingmen, guys like Bailey Scott, Kamdyn McIntosh, Wood, Hinge, JMc, Morrison and McKenzie all averaged in that 70-75 range, 3/4 of that group can't even kick and I don't think anyone would mistake them for stars. Wing is a bad high end role but it does have a very high floor, the bad players score 70, the great ones score 80-105 (Gaff, Clug). On talent Finn is more akin to the elite than the lower guys.

It's also worth noting that all that actually matters is the spike. Someone posted Bowey's numbers, he made 130k from a similar price on one good score which he tanked with an absolute stinker as well. Only takes a good couple of games and he's done the job. You also get a more reliable floor for the on-field aspect which is important early in the season.

Having said that, he's not a must have by any means, I'd suggest those who can get up to Hopper or down to Greene types will probably generate similar cash.




I think we make a grave mistake by diminishing a good performance against a bottom 10 side, half the league are bottom half teams, ipso facto approximately half the games will be against them.

This is particularly relevant for GWS who face Adelaide, WCE, Carlton, Essendon and Hawthorn in their first 5, so if he has shown an ability to flat track bully then he's got the perfect start to execute the plan! They should go into 4 of those as firm favourites and the fifth is pretty even on paper, especially with Walsh out. GWS were terrible under an awful coach last year but their list is still very talented, especially at the pointy end.

I wasn't intending to diminish Callaghan's performance, but more balance it with context. He wouldn't have done that against Sydney in the wet. He showed what he can do in a relatively open game in good conditions. Some players didn't get that chance.

Essendon played 2 matches that were very wind affected, so people need to be mindful of that. The Bulldogs and the Giants played one game each and had a lot of high scoring SC players. Doesn't mean we just load up with all those players without a few checks and balances.

Carlton and Collingwood played in very hot conditions in the middle of the day in the unofficial match, then both unsurprisingly struggled in week 2.

 

[pizza safety]

I don't see how Guthrie gets less than 60%. Danger another year older probably drops back to 55%. Atkins and Parfitt surely take more than last year.

You're right Guthrie more likely to have about 60-70%, Atkins was getting about 50% in the back half of the year.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

Midpricers do tend to be more Caldwell than Brodie. The mistake is in thinking that more is more with them in initial team set-up.

Assuming that 4 will be the number to 'break out', having a go at 6 of them might help you pick all 4 but it certainly is no guarantee. What it DOES guarantee though is that you have 2 problem spots on field from day 1. We know how hard it can be to correct a midpricer.

In the above example, you are better off backing 4 midpricers and accepting that you are highly likely to have picked a couple wrong. You can then trade them directly at round 3 for the two you've missed. Easy peasy if you've got your rookies mostly right.

I realise it assumes you have predicted the correct number of breakout midpricers for the year in the first place. '4' seems a sensible number though

I found myself agreeing with you, then thought about last years winner. He started 8 or 9 mid-pricers, depending on where you classified Caleb Daniel. It gave him scope to adjust quickly, as you don't really want to use the premos or rookies to do that adjusting.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I found myself agreeing with you, then thought about last years winner. He started 8 or 9 mid-pricers, depending on where you classified Caleb Daniel. It gave him scope to adjust quickly, as you don't really want to use the premos or rookies to do that adjusting.

Do you have his starting squad out of interest and early trades?

 

[NT.Thunder]

I don't see how Guthrie gets less than 60%. Danger another year older probably drops back to 55%. Atkins and Parfitt surely take more than last year.

Guthrie will be 31 this year and also another year older

 

[wogitalia]

Guthrie will be 31 this year and also another year older

By Geelong standards he's basically rookie aged

 

[Ironhawk]

Do you have his starting squad out of interest and early trades?

https://supercoachscores.com/thread...eam-post-230-onwards.4408/page-12#post-904583

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

Thanks for that, I was just about to start looking. He arguably had 10, depending on your definition. Butters was the one I was I was thinking of as iffy, not Daniel, as he was over 500K.

 

[donnybuang]

Thanks for that, I was just about to start looking. He arguably had 10, depending on your definition. Butters was the one I was I was thinking of as iffy, not Daniel, as he was over 500K.

Last year's crop of midpricers are nothing like this year's though.

 

[randomcliche]

And ended up keeping 5! We have way too many trades for our strategies…wait hang on, our strategies don’t use enough trades…wait last year was different 🤔 🤷‍♀️

 

[OnTopBar]

I found myself agreeing with you, then thought about last years winner. He started 8 or 9 mid-pricers, depending on where you classified Caleb Daniel. It gave him scope to adjust quickly, as you don't really want to use the premos or rookies to do that adjusting.

Looking at my team for comparison....

Yeo
Liam Jones
Hopper
Worpel
Callaghan
Gulden
Fyfe
Bruhn

Reckon I'm on the right path, LOL

 

[Uncle Drew]

I'm trying to catch up on preseason matches, but can't find the Freo v Port replay on Kayo. Is anyone else having the same issue?

 

[baz_machine]

Just remember, there is many paths to failure and only one to victory.

There is no "right" way to play. just back yourself in, have fun and if your pick doesn't work, add it to the Dale Thomas list of failed picks.

So many things can change very quickly; players get injured, roles change, players get dropped / subbed. With 36 trades, just be prepared to use them early and often.

 

[Darkie]

I'm trying to catch up on preseason matches, but can't find the Freo v Port replay on Kayo. Is anyone else having the same issue?

I believe @wogitalia mentioned this earlier.

They do have a "mini" for a quick snapshot.

 

[donnybuang]

Looking at my team for comparison....

Yeo
Liam Jones
Hopper
Worpel
Callaghan
Gulden
Fyfe
Bruhn

Reckon I'm on the right path, LOL

And then compare them to his midpricers 😄
Neale
Cripps
Hewett
Witts
Preuss
Coniglio
Brodie

 

[aj74]

I found myself agreeing with you, then thought about last years winner. He started 8 or 9 mid-pricers, depending on where you classified Caleb Daniel. It gave him scope to adjust quickly, as you don't really want to use the premos or rookies to do that adjusting.

Yeah I'm really talking that 220k - 350k type. Even to 380k.

I know that players in the 400ks are called mid prices but they are easy to correct. You downgrade another underperformed MP to a standard rookie and you have the funds for a top 6 forward. Maybe even a top back.

 

[Uncle Drew]

I believe @wogitalia mentioned this earlier.

They do have a "mini" for a quick snapshot.

Thanks, good to know I'm not going crazy.