Time for a second draft ahead of the real preseason stuff. Figured I'd throw out a pretty pure GnR approach as hadn't tried one previously...
Defenders
Daicos - Defensive pick that I really like, supreme talent, finished last year strong. Generally when your biggest worry is that they'll get tagged, you know you're on the right path. Getting tagged is the first world problem of "negatives".
Yeo - Until he's hurt, he's in for me.
6 Rookies - Feels like I'm stretching a bit here, definitely felt like the last couple are speculative but there are a few more names and defintiely some 200k options that I can flip to if needed (Humphrey is a luxury spend rookie on mid bench and Allen similar up forward).
Structure - This is my desired look, heck I could definitely just go Yeo at D1 if the rookies look good enough.
Byes - Zero issues, I've only got two "premium" picks, they do share a bye and it's the loaded bye but plenty of options to build around it.
Mids
Laird - Locked for mine, enjoyed having him way too much last year.
Oliver - I will watch preseason, there's definitely a case for Petracca here who I do think can easily score similarly and is cheaper. The "more midfield options" is scary at this price but I'll believe it when I see it.
Neale - Replaces Miller here, I don't see any difference between them but Miller with a preseason injury is all but out for mine. Would need to play both preseason games and look flawless to get back in.
Macrae - Strong watchlist here, needs the right role, I don't want to see any silly business. Lot of alternatives here so not concerned if he's not right, of those options only Bont is more expensive and 5k is immaterial.
Steele - Another who has to confirm this spot but if he looks right in preseason games then I'll go him, too proven for his starting price to bother trying to find breakout guys instead of the obvious bounce back target.
Callaghan - Will watch closely but he's an elite talent who ticks all the SC boxes, reminds me a lot of Bont who was able to break 100 in his second season. Role needs to be as advertised but assuming Greene remains forward, he's an obvious 3rd midfielder and with both Coniglio and Kelly very versatile he could easily slot into a very heavy midfield role. Perryman the wildcard, I've never really rated him but internally they obviously always have so they must see something at training that hasn't translated to AFL as yet, but they invested heavily to get Callaghan and I like him at that price.
Ashcroft - I'd be shocked if I don't start him. Pure on field rookie option for mine, that his role seems even better than I expected only further affirms that.
Phillips - Wait to be confirmed but intra-club was an onfield rookie role, you have to structure around that.
3 Rooks - I don't usually like taking DPP guys here but the pure mid options look awfully thin and I'll fill the bench somehow. Not worried about finding 3, Humphrey I rate but is as much a buffer pick as a genuine pick right now, better to have an extra 60k I can be flexible with.
Structure - Remains my preferred structure, I'm open to Hopper but think Callaghan has similar scoring potential in the right role, happy to spend less if another on field option pops up. Obviously this structure is very easy to change if the back rookies don't appear and I have to pick a Dawson type.
Byes - Balance is really solid, not as nice as it was with Miller and his free bye, but basically 2/0/2/1 for the premiums and leaves lots of potential targets, Callaghan a perfect late bye also if he lasts that long.
Ruck
NicNat - Ready for him to prove me wrong but looks fitter than last couple of years, has proven scoring history and has a vastly improved midfield around him this year and the most role certainty, he'll play as much as he can basically. Ultimately, he's underpriced and, somehow, one of the most durable options and has as much upside as anyone. Yeah, I'm lost here
Marshall - I don't like the durability issues but the ceiling and role are the best value available until Ross throws a curveball at us at least. If he had have kept FWD, he'd be a lock.
Structure - I hate having effectively picked two keepers because there's so much randomness at the position that I could very easily have both picks wrong and then we're into mass ruck trades for the third year in a row. Honestly, just a look at what value allows. Going up to Witts, who is still the safest pick, imo, does require a change somewhere else.
Byes - Zero issues here, different rounds and both share with only a couple of the guys I think are most likely to be the right pick in the case these two are the wrong picks.
Forwards
Dunkley - Automatic lock pick for mine. It's not often that you can argue the #1 carry over pick has 15 points of upside but I think you can here. There's just nowhere near enough reward to take him on.
Coniglio - Will watch but if role is as advertised, he's also 10 points underpriced. Easy pick.
Rozee - Basically a ditto, can easily push the 110 mark with his skill profile, too much value to not start.
Taranto - I don't love picking a F6 target up front but he's great value and I think he's a pretty solid bet to be an F6 level scorer so it's worth the punt. Also a defensive pick if nothing else.
Allen - Definitely not a lock, but with a high risk backline setup, having a guaranteed best 22 guy to field definitely helps.
McLean - If he's fit and named round one he's basically a lock, if his role is as advertised then he's a must start on top of that.
2 Rooks - Very confident these appear, definitely think there could be someone else to replace Allen and free up that cash, not that I really know how to use it anyway.
Structure - Mainly seeing what it looks like without a Fyfe/Ziebell, who basically pair with a Hopper type (or each other) if I do go for them. I actually think both could feasibly match Taranto but I'd say Taranto hits 102 level with about 75% certainty (removing injury) while I'd say I'm at more like 30-40% on the other two, Fyfe also has much more durability issues to throw on top of that. Ultimately I'm not looking to start anyone in the forwards who doesn't have 105 as a likely outcome imo if they're over 300k if I can avoid it. I'm also heavier here than I'd like but I just like Rozee/Taranto more as keeper picks than equivalent options elsewhere and with both having DPP, worst case they'll slot into strong F7/M9 options if there's a lot of crucial DPP changes.
Byes - Round 15 bye is far from ideal, all 3 are DPP though and that's the best bye for MIDs on paper so definitely a solid chance to hide one up there. Round 15 also the easiest bye to plan for and around, so if you're going overloaded it's the one.
Team feels strong on paper to me, obviously defender rookies will make or break it but very confident in Ginbey, McKenna and Constable being playable rookies if they make their sides, so basically need to find one more that's not significantly worse than other positions and 2 to provide cover, I'm not as confident on the latter part. That said, Coffield and a few others definitely could switch with Allen in this team given the amount of FWD rookies on the cards and will probably be the right play once I work out what player it is!
