Strategy 2023: Round 17 Trades

[Chumpion]

The Dunkley conundrum is going to do my head in all week and I'm sure I will land on the wrong side of the coin.

My two options are one trade Yeo to Mills and cover Dunkley with Maric while he is injured.

Or can two trade Dunkley and Yeo to Macrae and Dawson.

Rough calculations using averages shows that will gain 100 points if Dunkley misses one game, 176 points if Dunkley misses 2 games and 252 points if Dunkley misses 3 games.

Have also run some numbers with Dunkley coming back at 90% of his current average for the rest of the year and the yields increase to 184 for 1 week, 248 for 2 weeks and 312 for 3 weeks.

Note have used Dunkley's average without the sub affected score and have removed Mills' sub affected score as well.

We all know Supercoach doesn't work like this as scores are highly volatile but just trying to rationalise my thought process.

Also worth mentioning I have 5 trades left currently.

Are you playing for leagues or overall?

If leagues, hold.
If overall, trade - you've got plenty of trades up your sleeve.

 

[AngryAnt]

Weddle up to Mills for my 23rd "premo". Mills to come on field for Dunkley this round. Will be left with three trades.

 

[Russty_]

Weddle up to Mills for my 23rd "premo". Mills to come on field for Dunkley this round. Will be left with three trades.

Good move

 

[Shaunpro1]

Trades will be gold later on with the extra round this year, I'll just field Seamus Mitchell for a week or two, dont think the points loss justifies using a trade on the guy that's clear F1.

 

[Blue Bloods]

Bump. Would love some feedback hehe

Just to throw a spanner in the works. I like Fyfe to Mills option 1, saves a trade and cash and not bring in a nothing rookie.

Mills is over $200K cheaper, but the main reason, to get Libba over Mills you need to trade in a poor rookies.

 

[WindyHillWizard]

Considering two options to cover Dunkley- keen to hear opinions.
Current cover for Dunkley is Cincotta/Maric

1. Trade Fyfe to Sheldrick- 4 trades remaining. The following week will consider 2 trades to facilitate Day to Sicily. Will be down to 2 trades then.

2. Trade Fyfe to Cuningham- the $150k to be used for a Day to Sicily next round. Then down to 3 trades.

 

[Russty_]

Just to throw a spanner in the works. I like Fyfe to Mills option 1, saves a trade and cash and not bring in a nothing rookie.

Mills is over $200K cheaper, but the main reason, to get Libba over Mills you need to trade in a poor rookies.

I prefer this option also, broken Fyfe to Mills without having to do anything else is the best option to me by far.
There will be many a team's year ruined this year by running out of trades.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Considering two options to cover Dunkley- keen to hear opinions.
Current cover for Dunkley is Cincotta/Maric

1. Trade Fyfe to Sheldrick- 4 trades remaining. The following week will consider 2 trades to facilitate Day to Sicily. Will be down to 2 trades then.

2. Trade Fyfe to Cuningham- the $150k to be used for a Day to Sicily next round. Then down to 3 trades.

Bring Sheldrick in, if I had another trade in the bank I'd likely do it myself, think having a mid/forward swing will be pretty valuable in the run home and he could honestly drop a 120 on Richmond, only efficiency in a couple of big moments cost him it last weekend.

 

[WindyHillWizard]

Bring Sheldrick in, if I had another trade in the bank I'd likely do it myself, think having a mid/forward swing will be pretty valuable in the run home and he could honestly drop a 120 on Richmond, only efficiency in a couple of big moments cost him it last weekend.

That’s what I’m leaning to…keeping it simple.
How many trades do you have left?

 

[Zim^zuM]

Just to throw a spanner in the works. I like Fyfe to Mills option 1, saves a trade and cash and not bring in a nothing rookie.

Mills is over $200K cheaper, but the main reason, to get Libba over Mills you need to trade in a poor rookies.

With the new Oliver news I just may have to do this. Oliver can become libba.

 

[ScottishBomber]

Considering a bit of a rash move - have 4 trades and 96K, looking at going Rowell to Mills and Davey > Thomas. Thomas gives me M/F cover and provides cover for Dunkley this week. This does however leave Sheezel at D6 for the year. Struggling with the Dunkley conundrum.

 

[Darkie]

Considering two options to cover Dunkley- keen to hear opinions.
Current cover for Dunkley is Cincotta/Maric

1. Trade Fyfe to Sheldrick- 4 trades remaining. The following week will consider 2 trades to facilitate Day to Sicily. Will be down to 2 trades then.

2. Trade Fyfe to Cuningham- the $150k to be used for a Day to Sicily next round. Then down to 3 trades.

I know you are right in the hunt, so I don’t want to sway you too much on a whim, but … my initial reaction was that Day to Sicily is not worth using your 3rd and 4th last trades on.

I hope I’m wrong if you jump that way, good luck!

 

[Darkie]

Considering two options to cover Dunkley- keen to hear opinions.
Current cover for Dunkley is Cincotta/Maric

1. Trade Fyfe to Sheldrick- 4 trades remaining. The following week will consider 2 trades to facilitate Day to Sicily. Will be down to 2 trades then.

2. Trade Fyfe to Cuningham- the $150k to be used for a Day to Sicily next round. Then down to 3 trades.

If you are within striking distance but need things to break your way to win it, are you better off bringing in a high ceiling POD (eg a KPF), potentially one with a good looping draw, to improve your chances of making up the needed ground?

 

[Shaunpro1]

That’s what I’m leaning to…keeping it simple.
How many trades do you have left?

3

 

[Shaunpro1]

If you are within striking distance but need things to break your way to win it, are you better off bringing in a high ceiling POD (eg a KPF), potentially one with a good looping draw, to improve your chances of making up the needed ground?

Dont think going for broke when the leader is so far ahead is a smart strategy tbh, I'd be far more inclined to be focusing on maintaining a spot in the top 10 at this point.

 

[WindyHillWizard]

If you are within striking distance but need things to break your way to win it, are you better off bringing in a high ceiling POD (eg a KPF), potentially one with a good looping draw, to improve your chances of making up the needed ground?

That’s potentially a play, depending on the player, but there is still plenty of rounds to go and this feels more like a Hail Mary play with 3-4 rounds to go to make 1-200 pts, not the 500+ pts I need.

 

[Darkie]

Dont think going for broke when the leader is so far ahead is a smart strategy tbh, I'd be far more inclined to be focusing on maintaining a spot in the top 10 at this point.

I think it depends on what your goal and risk profile are. Personally I would rather go for the win, but I can understand some people wanting to lock in a good rank.

One point I’d make though, is that his points margin can definitely be run down from here.

He’s just over 1% ahead of WindyHillWizard in 9th, with 35% of the season to go.

He’s 416 points ahead, and 7th beat 6th by 242 points last week alone … it’s not that big a lead.

If people want to take a lower risk approach, that’s totally fine, but I wouldn’t be doing it on the basis that the lead is too great to overcome. There’s still plenty of time with the right strategy and a bit of luck!

 

[Shaunpro1]

That’s potentially a play, depending on the player, but there is still plenty of rounds to go and this feels more like a Hail Mary play with 3-4 rounds to go to make 1-200 pts, not the 500+ pts I need.

Consolidate until SC finals then roll the dice on the POD's if close enough is the obvious way to play for mine, you really dont want to blow your spot going unique with a third of the season still to run.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I think it depends on what your goal and risk profile are. Personally I would rather go for the win, but I can understand some people wanting to lock in a good rank.

One point I’d make though, is that his points margin can definitely be run down from here.

He’s just over 1% ahead of WindyHillWizard in 9th, with 35% of the season to go.

He’s 416 points ahead, and 7th beat 6th by 242 points last week alone … it’s not that big a lead.

If people want to take a lower risk approach, that’s totally fine, but I wouldn’t be doing it on the basis that the lead is too great to overcome. There’s still plenty of time with the right strategy and a bit of luck!

Think you're underestimating the position the top few coaches are in, they have a points and trade advantage and are just off-setting any avenue to make up points that the chasing pack has jumped on, going to be ridiculously tough to catch and rolling the dice in Round 17 with reckless trading isn't the best way to give yourself a chance in hell of doing it.

 

[Darkie]

Think you're underestimating the position the top few coaches are in, they have a points and trade advantage and are just off-setting any avenue to make up points that the chasing pack has jumped on, going to be ridiculously tough to catch and rolling the dice in Round 17 with reckless trading isn't the best way to give yourself a chance in hell of doing it.

I haven’t seen how many trades the top 3 teams have - how many extra do they have?

3rd is only 238 points ahead of 9th. We’ve seen that that can be done in a single round. The top few would need a significant trade advantage to be unreachable.

1st doesn’t have English or Libba. Both are in the top 7 players by average, and have a good draw. Their bench cover is okay but not great, and they have four players that are basically locked in donuts … I think there are vulnerabilities and opportunities.

The fact that there’s 1/3 of the season to go means there is no need to be reckless, or perhaps even to take major risks (WHW is way closer than I’d thought when I initially responded to him). Plenty of time to chip away at the lead with calculated PODs, and if a Hail Mary option is needed later in the piece, to try to find a good one at that stage.