Strategy 2023: Round 9 Trades

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Really unhappy with my trades this week.

Out: Setterfield, O Baker
In: Stewart, Bailey Humphrey

Wanted to boost and bring in 2 premos, but they were going to end up sub-premo, and I was going to have to go early on Drury to make it happen. Instead I've brought Stewart back, with an eye on his good bye.

Humphrey is not on the bubble. He's 10k below his bubble price and still has that -3 in his cycle. But I am gambling on him having been a goalkicker as a junior and facing a poor Eagles side that he cashes in and posts a spike score. (And hoping his mid 50 score last week was the beginning of him feeling comfortable at this level. Also hoping that his bye situation also is useful (assuming he hangs around)

I don't feel good about it at all, and have all sorts of Ginbey and Humphrey loops set up to allow me to take or avoid pending the scores tomorrow
Good pick up that Humphrey is lower than his starting price. I missed that. Had his best game last week I thought and not the type that is going to go unsighted for a whole game. He will get involved which gives him a chance to score. He is a sub risk though both ways though however obviously won't start as sub this week. Assuming he posted a decent score (50 odd) then his BE will improve once the -3 cycles out.
 

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O Baker, Wilmont, Ashcroft
In
Drury, Atkins and N Anderson…
Thoughts?
Seems alright in isolation but hard to make a fair assessment without being provided the full picture in regards to side pre or post trades, remaining salary, trades and boosts left, etc.
 
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Position leading into this round:
View attachment 56828
View attachment 56829
Seems obvious to get Oliver but the news about how far off Touk is has me reconsidering Noah Anderson. Likely to go ballistic this round, can come straight in as VC, has the golden bye, and might even hold the number 1 role if they ease Touk back in later.

Getting both him and Oliver might just be out of reach though... would require going early on say, Drury, and also sacrificing Hopper. Much as there's debate about whether to let Ashcroft go or not, Hopper is consistently about 20ppg better and isn't facing an uphill battle just to hold value this week.

Started roughly around Oliver, Atkins, 540k (I'll use Powell here for convenience but it can be any DEF or MID in that range), which would require me to give up Hopper, Ashcroft, and Callaghan. Then Drury instead of Atkins let me use Chandler instead of Hopper.

But I could instead go Anderson, Powell, Knevitt. Keeps Hopper, sets me up beautifully for the byes, 3 rookies on field, and I can have a look at two scores Friday night. I actually love it.

But no Oliver...

The other issue is it means I can't react to Marshall being a late out and I'll cop a donut. But in isolation Marshall to Gawn is not a good trade right now and I'd feel foolish if I talked myself into it and Marshall got up. I'm also hardly going to be out on my own if that does happen, Marshall in over half of all teams...
Reckon we are all a bit confused this week of what to do. Im gonna sit tight and not force any trades this week. Need to bank some no trade weeks, and this is a good one to do so.
 
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Not sure which of these two sets of trades to do?

View attachment 56838

Leaves $800 ITB

Or

View attachment 56839

Leaves $57.9K ITB
think the 1st option is better, keeps Callaghan for another round and makes a little more cash. Plus is an on field player.
Gould may be gone next week, in for T McCartin concussion, could sub again? Or subbed out!
 
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Need to cut down on the trades, so only one this week. Just enough in the bank to go Wood to Anderson.
Not keen on bringing in any of the current rookies. Any that are brought in now, really need to be there during the byes, otherwise it could result in a wasted almost sideways bye trade, when you want to be trying to maximise points and make up some ground and rankings. The ones I have at the moment aren't doing anything flash, but at least they are playing, and earning a little bit. You really dont want to go into the byes with 5 or 6 donuts to start with. Just my 2 cents.
 
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Struggling this week. Got cash in the bank, but paralysed by indecision... any advice would help. Need to get Dawson and Oliver in. View attachment 56837
You've got the cash currently to go Johnson straight to either Oliver or Dawson - which seems like a really viable option. Gets a nonplaying bench rookie out and means you don't need to take McVee's scoring.

Alternatively. Johnson straight to a fallen premo such as Brayshaw or Steele would similarly get a rookie off field and still give you about $120k for next week. The reason I'm only suggesting a single move this week is that the rookie options don't scream must gets. The only one that is interesting is Atkins, but I'm not sure you've got the cash gen elsewhere to make it viable given it's a risk.

Looking ahead to next week you could probably go McVee - Drury and then Rat up to a premo. Maybe another mid premo (walsh?) and swing Roezee back forward.
Could even boost as well with two options; Try to get Hopper to a fallen premo if you have the cash left over (bray/steele) or pick up Berry on the bubble and bank some more cash from Davey/ Cowan/Teakle to get another premo the week later once JVR and Ashcroft have hit their peaks.

Might be slightly more conservative than a few others suggest at this stage but that's my two cents.
 
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Team before trades
Screenshot (7).png Screenshot (5).png
In a bit of a tough spot. Have lost Ridley and Parish to injury over the past week. Originally was planning on trading Ridley and McKenna to Brayshaw and Atkins. My opinion on Atkins hasn't really changed but I loved seeing Weddle keep his spot with all the ins and outs they had at selection. I'm now starting to lean towards Weddle. I'm definitely not trading Parish unless some bad news comes out. The big one though, is what to do with Ridley. From about round 4 onwards my plan with him was to offload him at his round 14 bye. If I keep him, he won't have much value in him due to that 18 in his price cycle. But, it's also keeping a rookie off the field. I may even end up being forced to keep him for the rest of the season if things get worse.

My new plan is not confirmed, but I'm getting more confident in it by the hour.

This week:
Ashcroft>Brayshaw
Cowan>Weddle
Leaves me with 65.4k

Would prefer to trade McKenna over Ashcroft but 1.1k short, annoying.

Next week:
McKenna>Steele/Lloyd
Callaghan>Drury/Berry
Should leave me with around 60k or so.

I'm expecting to take a hit in the rankings this week with only 16 premos on the park. Will have to field Ryan, Callaghan, Simpson, Mitchell, Cincotta and loop Weddle into McKenna. I'll also have 7 DNP's. Currently at 3.5k overall and would be happy to stay in the top 5k after this round. But if Ridley and Parish are both back next week (probably shouldn't count on that, should I?) I will only have 3 rookies on field. Those would likely be Ryan, Cincotta and Simpson/Drury/Johnson. One thing you may notice is that I'm not going for Oliver. For me, he's just too expensive. I'm going to struggle to complete a team at this point and need to look at value. That is why I'm looking at options like Brayshaw, Steele and Lloyd above. I'm looking at grabbing some of Neale, Mills, Sicily, Merrett after their byes. If I can afford it, then I can look at Oliver and I'd love to get Gawn if he gets FWD status so he can cover the rucks in the backend of the season.

Feedback appreciated.
 
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Good pick up that Humphrey is lower than his starting price. I missed that. Had his best game last week I thought and not the type that is going to go unsighted for a whole game. He will get involved which gives him a chance to score. He is a sub risk though both ways though however obviously won't start as sub this week. Assuming he posted a decent score (50 odd) then his BE will improve once the -3 cycles out.
For this reason, I think you could fade him this week and get next week. He's not going to rise massively this week (touchwood)
 
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Team before trades
View attachment 56847 View attachment 56846
In a bit of a tough spot. Have lost Ridley and Parish to injury over the past week. Originally was planning on trading Ridley and McKenna to Brayshaw and Atkins. My opinion on Atkins hasn't really changed but I loved seeing Weddle keep his spot with all the ins and outs they had at selection. I'm now starting to lean towards Weddle. I'm definitely not trading Parish unless some bad news comes out. The big one though, is what to do with Ridley. From about round 4 onwards my plan with him was to offload him at his round 14 bye. If I keep him, he won't have much value in him due to that 18 in his price cycle. But, it's also keeping a rookie off the field. I may even end up being forced to keep him for the rest of the season if things get worse.

My new plan is not confirmed, but I'm getting more confident in it by the hour.

This week:
Ashcroft>Brayshaw
Cowan>Weddle
Leaves me with 65.4k

Would prefer to trade McKenna over Ashcroft but 1.1k short, annoying.

Next week:
McKenna>Steele/Lloyd
Callaghan>Drury/Berry
Should leave me with around 60k or so.

I'm expecting to take a hit in the rankings this week with only 16 premos on the park. Will have to field Ryan, Callaghan, Simpson, Mitchell, Cincotta and loop Weddle into McKenna. I'll also have 7 DNP's. Currently at 3.5k overall and would be happy to stay in the top 5k after this round. But if Ridley and Parish are both back next week (probably shouldn't count on that, should I?) I will only have 3 rookies on field. Those would likely be Ryan, Cincotta and Simpson/Drury/Johnson. One thing you may notice is that I'm not going for Oliver. For me, he's just too expensive. I'm going to struggle to complete a team at this point and need to look at value. That is why I'm looking at options like Brayshaw, Steele and Lloyd above. I'm looking at grabbing some of Neale, Mills, Sicily, Merrett after their byes. If I can afford it, then I can look at Oliver and I'd love to get Gawn if he gets FWD status so he can cover the rucks in the backend of the season.

Feedback appreciated.
What if you went McKenna > Steele this week?
Would mean keeping Ashcroft which you wanted. Guessing it's not ideal BE-wise but with the hope that Ashcroft makes money this week with a big score at home then maybe you're still in a position to grab Brayshaw next week?

I think I'd still consider trading Ridley to Atkins - they're averaging similar. And Ridley going to plummet in price whilst Atkins should rise so long as he holds his spot for the next few weeks. Would mean saving a heap of coin while getting a semi-similar scorer?

Looks like you've been unlucky on a lot of rookies so far, and I think Atkins provides a bit more flexibility than a weddle. If weddle is dropped next week then you have no cash gen again - at least Atkins down to Drury next week if worst case he's dropped will bank some extra dollars.
 
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Really stuck this week. Wanted to avoid using my last boost but have 422,700 in the bank and don't think I should leave it sitting there.

I've already gone wilmot/Holland's to weddle/Atkins. I'm happy to pay the premium on Atkins. Keeps weddle off my field at D6 and I'm confident he goes at least 60. He's definitely capable of a purple patch and if he maintains a spot until the byes it's an even bigger bonus. And with 422k it's not compromising an upgrade.

I'm just not sure if I get Gulden in which still leaves me 200k if I'm using Baker as a trade. But I can also afford a solid mid keeper like Walsh/Anderson, Merrett. I have the overs. Bont, carry, laird, Dawson, daicos, English.

Over option is also to trade in Sinclair, Ryan or doch.

Too many options to consider as the team is filling up. Passing on Sinclair or Ryan over doch means they won't come in my team as the def will be full.

Arghhh

Edit...

If I ignore weddle and keep wilmot I still have 570k for a trade. Can save the boost, a trade and not take the risk with another dead rookie in weddle.
 
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Anyone gonna risk bringing in Gould? lol

Any Swans supporters know any info on his JS or whether he will get a good run in the team? Or is he only playing because Tom McCartin is injured?
JS is terrible. He's playing because McCartin (and McCartin x2 and Rampe) are out. I can't see Paddy coming back soon, but Tom will probably be back next week to push Gould out and then Rampe's return in a month would drop Gould completely out of the picture again.
 
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Really stuck this week. Wanted to avoid using my last boost but have 422,700 in the bank and don't think I should leave it sitting there.

I've already gone wilmot/Holland's to weddle/Atkins. I'm happy to pay the premium on Atkins. Keeps weddle off my field at D6 and I'm confident he goes at least 60. He's definitely capable of a purple patch and if he maintains a spot until the byes it's an even bigger bonus. And with 422k it's not compromising an upgrade.

I'm just not sure if I get Gulden in which still leaves me 200k if I'm using Baker as a trade. But I can also afford a solid mid keeper like Walsh/Anderson, Merrett. I have the overs. Bont, carry, laird, Dawson, daicos, English.

Over option is also to trade in Sinclair, Ryan or doch.

Too many options to consider as the team is filling up. Passing on Sinclair or Ryan over doch means they won't come in my team as the def will be full.

Arghhh

Edit...

If I ignore weddle and keep wilmot I still have 570k for a trade. Can save the boost, a trade and not take the risk with another dead rookie in weddle.
The last bit was what I was going to ask you - if you're not happy with the downgrade option, don't do it. Wilmot has a touch more money to make and probably won't start losing it barring injury, so he's not much of a priority. I'd look at the single downgrade/upgrade and keep your boost, so Hollands > Atkins, Baker > ??? and at $570k you have a heap of options (better than mine at $520k for a very similar move :().
 
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Position leading into this round:
View attachment 56828
View attachment 56829
Seems obvious to get Oliver but the news about how far off Touk is has me reconsidering Noah Anderson. Likely to go ballistic this round, can come straight in as VC, has the golden bye, and might even hold the number 1 role if they ease Touk back in later.

Getting both him and Oliver might just be out of reach though... would require going early on say, Drury, and also sacrificing Hopper. Much as there's debate about whether to let Ashcroft go or not, Hopper is consistently about 20ppg better and isn't facing an uphill battle just to hold value this week.

Started roughly around Oliver, Atkins, 540k (I'll use Powell here for convenience but it can be any DEF or MID in that range), which would require me to give up Hopper, Ashcroft, and Callaghan. Then Drury instead of Atkins let me use Chandler instead of Hopper.

But I could instead go Anderson, Powell, Knevitt. Keeps Hopper, sets me up beautifully for the byes, 3 rookies on field, and I can have a look at two scores Friday night. I actually love it.

But no Oliver...

The other issue is it means I can't react to Marshall being a late out and I'll cop a donut. But in isolation Marshall to Gawn is not a good trade right now and I'd feel foolish if I talked myself into it and Marshall got up. I'm also hardly going to be out on my own if that does happen, Marshall in over half of all teams...
how long do we think Touk is out.

Post byes which means 7 games at least.

Read their comments it could be later. Agree that does improve attractiveness and bye helps as well.

Ginbey will follow him although not sure we have seen any success with him tagging too much. Eagles can hurt outside players but their kick to kick strategu, inside do better. Anderson does have a healthy balance of inside and outside.

Could be bye bye Libba (was going to be in).
 
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I can get Anderson in one trade

Is it worth using an extra one to go Cowan > Weddle/Atkins?
Would go early on Dury but decided i dont to get too burnt this round so id rather have oen of the other options

Atkins- proven scorer a few years back, scoring is decent in current role, DPP which helps with byes, plus an extra 50k if i trade him in now, good bye

Weddle- plays defence in a team where the ball will likely be, 70k cheaper

No trade- Leaves me with 25 trades, 3 boosts and 122k ITB

Would like to push higher in rank this week but i feel everyone will be doing almost the same trades as me
 
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Having a **** team has helped with the simplicity of my decision-making around trades this week. No dud rookies to be concerned with because they've all been duds so far. No bye structure to bother with because I'm ranked 30k and the Round 14 & 15 byes matter zilch.

OUT: Parish, Ridley & F.Greene
IN: Oliver, Gawn & Drury

Gawn in helps push Teakle to the bench and provide cover for if Marshall misses, plus Gawn is looking like a forward swing come the next DPP announcements, whereas Ridley would need to be upgraded to a Top 10 defender later on anyway. The price is right with Oliver and Parish (despite a ridiculously high recent disposal count average) is barely topping the 110SC points mark.
 
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The last bit was what I was going to ask you - if you're not happy with the downgrade option, don't do it. Wilmot has a touch more money to make and probably won't start losing it barring injury, so he's not much of a priority. I'd look at the single downgrade/upgrade and keep your boost, so Hollands > Atkins, Baker > ??? and at $570k you have a heap of options (better than mine at $520k for a very similar move :().
Yeah im thinking that way. Probably got to be Sinclair vs gulden. Ryan would be out of reach. Not to fussed on byes that that pairing does help.
 
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