Analysis 2024 AFL SC: Rolling Perfect Team [Post #242 onwards]

[Beg2Differ]

The leader after 6 rounds is a team called Nusatiges.

My observations

• Already traded out McInerney, McCartin, Cripps, Shiel, Rowell, JHF, Ward, Gawn, English, Jackson, Dusty, Butters.
• Traded in Sicily, Sinclair, Andy Brayshaw, Tom Green, Jack Steele, Baily Smith, Jackson, Preuss, Heeney, English, Windhager and Rosas
• Who said sideways trading doesn't work?
• Actually this person might be attempting to achieve the perfect score...

 

[OnTopBar]

The leader after 6 rounds is a team called Nusatiges.

My observations

• Already traded out McInerney, McCartin, Cripps, Shiel, Rowell, JHF, Ward, Gawn, English, Jackson, Dusty, Butters.
• Traded in Sicily, Sinclair, Andy Brayshaw, Tom Green, Jack Steele, Baily Smith, Jackson, Preuss, Heeney, English, Windhager and Rosas
• Who said sideways trading doesn't work?
• Actually this person might be attempting to achieve the perfect score...

View attachment 43360

Only needs 6-7 upgrades to get to a completed team and a lot of those would only require 2@, assume 3 trades again this week, leaves 5-6 with 20 trades left. After next week I'll have 4 upgrades left and 18 trades yet I'm ranked at 40k+

 

[Beg2Differ]

The maximum score after 7 rounds is 20,015 (avg 2,859) which compares to the current leader who has 16,799 (avg 2,400).

Note this is the first week where the rolling perfect team can't use a trade boost in each round.

 

[Beg2Differ]

The leader after 7 rounds is A1 Stars.

 

[Beg2Differ]

The introduction of the trade boost this year has meant the addition of a number of extra constraints to the rolling perfect team model. Unfortunately that has meant I have run into problems with solve times earlier this year than previous years. Last week I let it run for over 6 hours and it didn't solve. I am hoping I will be able to do something about this.

 

[randomcliche]

The introduction of the trade boost this year has meant the addition of a number of extra constraints to the rolling perfect team model. Unfortunately that has meant I have run into problems with solve times earlier this year than previous years. Last week I let it run for over 6 hours and it didn't solve. I am hoping I will be able to do something about this.

It’s like you added another ball in lotto!

 

[Beg2Differ]

Unfortunately I have not been able to maintain the rolling perfect team calculations this season. This was due to the added complexity of the trade boosts (mainly) and the players gaining DPP mid season (to a lesser extent) meaning the solve times blew out very quickly. I may try and resurrect this during the off season.

However it is still always interesting to look at the winning team for the year. A team called Raymagoo won the grand prize this year and this is what they did. The most noteworthy thing is that they used 33 trades by round 16.

 

[Herbie66]

Unfortunately I have not been able to maintain the rolling perfect team calculations this season. This was due to the added complexity of the trade boosts (mainly) and the players gaining DPP mid season (to a lesser extent) meaning the solve times blew out very quickly. I may try and resurrect this during the off season.

However it is still always interesting to look at the winning team for the year. A team called Raymagoo won the grand prize this year and this is what they did. The most noteworthy thing is that they used 33 trades by round 16.

View attachment 47504

Thanks for that.

Not starting Sicily (so at least I had something in common with the overall winner 😀 , although he was smart enough to trade him in)

Rowell , Berry , Witts , Cogs , McGovern in the $ 250-350k bracket , with Hewett & Brodie just outside the range

Starting Witts allowed the second premium mid , would have been interesting seeing the starting % of Macrae , Neale , Cripps , Rowell , Berry.

Starting premiums = 10 (including Butters)
Mid price/value = 7
Onfield rookies = 5

 

[Beg2Differ]

Could a ghost ship have won the whole thing in 2022? Well the answer is a resounding no. The following team is the highest scoring ghost ship which picked a starting team of 30, an on-field 22, a captain, a vice captain and an emergency on each line in round 1 and then didn't change it at all.

Interestingly it would have placed 625th and was 1463 points behind the winner. Historically a ghost ship could have won or gets very close however I think the effect of the trade boost and the mid season DPPs means the winning score is much higher this year (and doesn't help the ghost ship).

Note that I suspect there is a theoretical ghost ship team that doesn't set a ruck emergency and sets 2 on another line that would have scored a little higher than this team however modelling 2 emergencies on a single line is highly complex (and beyond my capabilities at the moment) due to the need to select the lower scoring emergency in this scenario.

 

[Beg2Differ]

I am on holidays at the moment and have a bit of time on my hands so thought I would resurrect the rolling perfect team calcs for BBL12 given I am no good a playing the actual game.

The maximum score up to the end of round 4 is 6592 (avg 1648) which compares the current leader who has 4739 (avg 1185).

The trade boost adds some complexity from previous years and obviously the following team uses it in each of the rounds so far.

 

[Beg2Differ]

The maximum score up to the end of round 5 is 8053 (avg 1611) which compares to the current leader who has 5777 (avg 1155).

We now have a situation where the boost can't be used every round. This team didn't use it in round 4.

 

[Beg2Differ]

The maximum score up to the end of round 6 is 9194 (avg 1532) which compares to the current leader who has 6412 (avg 1069).

 

[Beg2Differ]

The leader after 6 rounds is a team named ".". This is what they have done.

 

[Darkie]

The leader after 6 rounds is a team named ".". This is what they have done.

View attachment 50938

Two boosts by round 3 is aggressive! It also looks like only one was used for cash gen (which to me would make it more justifiable).

 

[Beg2Differ]

The maximum score up to the end of round 7 is 10277 (avg 1468) which compares to the current leader who has 6803 (avg 972).

 

[Beg2Differ]

The leader after round 7 is our very own @The Banker. Here is what he has done so far.

 

[Beg2Differ]

The maximum score up to the end of round 8 is 11858 (avg 1482) which compares to the current leader who has 7920 (avg 990).

 

[Beg2Differ]

The maximum score up to the end of round 9 is 13456 (avg 1495) which compares to the current leader who has 9301 (avg 1033).

 

[Beg2Differ]

The maximum score achievable in BBL12 Supercoach was 18,677 (avg 1437). This compares to the @Diabolical who got 12,457 (avg 958).

The team that would have achieved that is as follows.

Note I have updated this from the original post because I found a few scores that I had recorded incorrectly for some players.

 

[Beg2Differ]

The winner this year was a team called Diabolical Point. Rings a bell for some reason. Here is what they did.