The washout last night is annoying, so I think that it has become time to play the man and not necessarily what I would do if all things were equal. It’s time to try for first or finish twentieth!
I think that I may need to use my final boost to take on Narine’s VC score. The down side is that I will have to make a WK captain. Looping Narine VC and Salt off the bench gets me 90 points. So I need to hope that my alternative Captain scores 45 points. I will be down 2 points for every point he scores under 45, and ahead 2 points for every point he scores above 45.
The obvious choice is Rahul given he averages 64 and has scored more than 45 on 9/12 occasions, but it is likely that both first and second still have him and they could be using him as an alternative C themselves if they are fielding him.
As far as I can see, I have two alternative options. Pooran is averaging 52.5 and has scored more than 45 on 8/12 occasions, but the down side is that there is a risk that he doesn’t bat given he bats at 5. The other option is Prabhsimran who is averaging just 31.6 and only scoring more than 45 on 4/12 occasions. However, he has been opening lately so feels a bit more like taking on Rahul with a like for like player, but there is obviously a huge form risk of player and team. The up side is I could see how Rahul scores tonight before deciding if I should use my boost this round or not.
I am interested in hearing what others would do in my situation.
1. Sit tight, cop Narine’s C score and Salt and just worry about changing things up and using final boost in the final round when I have more information on what is needed.
2. Boost in Rahul as the best option and hope that first or second haven’t captained him.
3. Throw caution to the wind and boost in one of the alternatives. If so, which one?
If I do boost, I am likely to trade out one of the SRH players that both first and second have - Head, Klassen or Sharma to open up final round pods in case I somehow manage to make up some ground!
It depends on the situation, but assuming the scores I can see aren’t totally misleading:
- You (and Herbie) have c. 400 points to make up in two rounds
- The round has started pretty well for you, but it looks like scores are closely bunched, so no one has likely gained or lost a huge amount at this stage.
That indicates to me that you probably need to make up 250+ in the remainder of the season. It might even be 400+ if the leader has performed well so far.
That is definitely achievable, but is close to - potentially at - a point where I think the POD element is the key aspect, rather than choosing players for expected points. 250 points is roughly equivalent to four of his 60-average players all scoring 0, or four of your 60-average players averaging 120.
I would be very wary about trading in someone the leader already has, even if you think he’s the best expected scorer … the POD element is more important as I see it. [If you need three sixes off the last three balls, no point in playing a forward defensive, even if that’s what the textbook suggests for a particular delivery! You may not be quite at that point just yet, but equally some controlled/smart aggression before that might reduce the requirement and give you more options.]
In terms of particular names, I don’t have as strong a view on that, but based on the above I’d order the options 3, 2, daylight, then 1.
Opening up a further POD with your outs is a smart thing to consider. It may just be me but it seems like Klaasen is more miss than hit recently, and Sharma seems like a player that could go big if he gets more of a bowl. Head’s form looks very good.
I quite like Pooran as a player, and he does seem like someone with a ceiling, which you may need. Interestingly, his stats indicate he averages the same number of runs per match whether batting first or second. Batting at 5 seems like it’s also around that switch point where it’s unclear whether batting first or second is better in terms of opportunity. Maybe you could wait for the toss and assess that alongside the playing side and conditions? Rahul and Stoinis seem to be going well, but Hooda and Kulkarni less so. Maybe if there was a change to the XI he looks better?
I would be thinking a fair bit about toss/matchup/other changes to the XI on any picks from here, to see if you can get an edge. Is there more rain to come? Are pitches slowing down?
The leader should and probably will play defensively, so if you do go with a Pooran or Prabsimhran, you should be opening up an extra opportunity to catch him.
Good luck … you’ve done it all before!