Some interesting background on Josh Allen and possible reasons behind him scoring less from the passing game this year. Just another way a change in the background can affect a players production. Looking at raw 2023 stats there probably isn't anything to suggest a change in 2024 till you get to 2024.
Josh Allen: Allen has been a boom-or-bust option to open the season. He has led the position in fantasy points in two weeks this season. In the other weeks, he has been QB26, QB28, and QB17. Allen is coming off completing just 9-of-30 (30%) passes for 4.4 yards on Sunday. He has thrown for 180 or fewer yards in three games.
Going back to last season, we saw this after Joe Brady (OC) took over. Under Brady in 2023, Allen averaged 13.9 passing points per game, which would have ranked 18th over the entire season. He is averaging 14 passing points per game to open this season, 12th in the league.
The lack of weapons in this offense has been noticeable in the past two weeks. Allen made up the difference last season with a career-high 18 rushing touchdowns. 11 of those came in those games under Brady. He ran for 2 scores in Week 1 but has not had a rushing score since.
Things do not get easier for Allen this week based on the matchup. The Jets are 3rd in the league in passing points allowed per attempt (0.259) and 2nd in passing points allowed per game (7.3). They have faced some bad quarterbacks but also held Brock Purdy to a QB24 week (10.3 points) and hot Sam Darnold to QB27 (4.3 points) this past week. The Jets are getting pressure on 39.8% of dropbacks, 4th in the league.
Pressure has plagued Allen to open the year. Under pressure, Allen has completed a league-low 36.4% of his passes (16-of-44). Allen has been a QB1 scorer in five of his past six games against the Jets, and this defense has been among the best in the league. However, that all comes back to his rushing ability. He has averaged 7.2 rushing points per game in those matchups.
Allen did throw 3 touchdowns when these teams last played (under Brady) a year ago. The Jets had more or less quit on the season at that point, but we know Allen is still capable of a spike week against anyone, leaving him as the top boom-or-bust QB1 option in fantasy.