Competitions Brownlow Predictor Competition 2021

[kennychao]

#1
Hi all,

Thought I'd run this comp again this year (hiatus the last few years) and a bit of fun considering it was pretty competitive so to speak - interesting to see who was the Brownlow Guru

Link: http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2759-Brownlow-Predictor-Comp-2015?highlight=

Basically speaking,

1: Select 2 players from each club that you think likely to finish with the most amount of votes (top 2, order doesn't matter) – their overall vote totals will be tallied up

2: Pick the Brownlow Medallist. If they come 1st you get 15 points, 2nd, 10 points and 3rd, 5 points. (ineligible players included). You cannot pick a tie (points allocated edited to make it possible for one to not pick the winner and still obtain top score)

To spice it up a bit this year the following components are new:

3. (New) - Boxed First 4. Select 4 players for your FIRST 4 (5 points)
4. - Highest Vote Polling Team (5 points)
5. - Lowest Vote Polling Team (5 points)
6. - Leader at Round 11 (5 points)
7. - Brownlow Winner vote range: Under 25, 25-27, 28-30, 31-33, 34+ (5 points)

*Most amount of votes per club include favourites & ineligible players
*In event of a two way tie (eg tie for second), you will get 12.5 points ([15+10]/2) for selecting either winner. If its a two way tie for 3rd you will receive 5 points for selecting either winner.
*Selections close at 9am the day of the Brownlow. You are free to change your selections however editing is only open until that time

Your scores will be totaled and the member with the highest score the winner. Feel free to use the below as a template:

Adelaide -
Brisbane -
Carlton -
Collingwood -
Essendon -
Fremantle -
Geelong -
Gold Coast -
Greater Western Sydney -
Hawthorn -
Melbourne -
North Melbourne -
Port Adelaide -
Richmond -
St Kilda -
Sydney -
West Coast -
Western Bulldogs -

2. Brownlow -
3. First 4 (any order) -
4. Highest Vote Polling Team
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team
6. Leader at Round 11
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: Under 25, 25-27, 28-30, 31-33, 34+

Good luck to all! - will see this through this year!

P.S. also open to suggestions & alterations for the competition if anyone has some that might make it more interesting / fair

 

[Stormzy]

Adelaide - Rory Laird and Ben Keays
Brisbane - Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage
Carlton - Sam Walsh and Jacob Weitering
Collingwood - Jordan De Goey and Brodie Grundy
Essendon - Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett
Fremantle - Andy Brayshaw and David Mundy
Geelong - Cam Guthrie and Tom Hawkins
Gold Coast - Touk Miller and Ben King
Greater Western Sydney - Josh Kelly and Toby Greene
Hawthorn - Tom Mitchell and Jaegar O'Meara
Melbourne - Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca
North Melbourne - Ben Cunnington and Jy Simpkin
Port Adelaide - Ollie Wines and Travis Boak
Richmond - Shai Bolton and Dustin Martin
St Kilda - Jack Steele and Luke Dunstan
Sydney - Callum Mills and Luke Parker
West Coast - Nic Naitanui and Andrew Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae

Brownlow - Jack Steele

Trifecta (any order) - Jack Steele, Marcus Bontempelli, Clayton Oliver
First 4 (any order) - Jack Steele, Marcus Bontempelli, Clayton Oliver, Sam Walsh
Highest Polling Team: Western Bulldogs
Lowest Polling Team: Gold Coast
Leader at Round 11: Marcus Bontempelli
Brownlow Winner Vote Range: 28-30

Figured I'd get in early and can always change if injury or suspension occurs. This competition seems like a lot of fun so am excited to try it. I don't really understand the trifecta or first 4 but am assuming it's just the top 3 and 4 highest placements (is this wrong?).

 

[Bermi]

............ I don't really understand the trifecta or first 4 but am assuming it's just the top 3 and 4 highest placements (is this wrong?).

Correct, the top 3 and 4 highest placements.

 

[kennychao]

Adelaide - Rory Laird, Taylor Walker
Brisbane - Jarryd Lyons, Hugh McCluggage
Carlton - Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps
Collingwood - Brodie Grundy, Jordan De Goey
Essendon - Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett
Fremantle - Andrew Brayshaw, David Mundy
Geelong - Cam Guthrie, Joel Selwood
Gold Coast - Touk Miller, Brandon Ellis
Greater Western Sydney - Josh Kelly, Jacob Hopper
Hawthorn - Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O'Meara
Melbourne - Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca
North Melbourne - Ben Cunnington, Jy Simpkin
Port Adelaide - Ollie Wines, Travis Boak
Richmond - Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt
St Kilda - Jack Steele, Luke Dunstan
Sydney - Callum Mills, Luke Parker
West Coast - Tim Kelly, Andrew Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae

2. Brownlow - Marcus Bontempelli
3. First 4 (any order) - Bontempelli Oliver Petracca Steele
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Melbourne
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - Gold Coast
6. Leader at Round 11 - Clayton Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: - 31-33

 

[kennychao]

Reserved - in case of any changes to the comp


EDIT:
Added 03/08:
- Changed to Boxed First 4 only - (instead of boxed trifecta also) (5 points)
- Highest Vote Polling Team (5 points)
- Lowest Vote Polling Team (5 points)
- Leader at Round 11 (5 points)
- Brownlow Winner vote range: Under 25, 25-27, 28-30, 31-33, 34+ (5 points)

 

[kennychao]

Adelaide - Rory Laird and Ben Keays
Brisbane - Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage
Carlton - Sam Walsh and Jacob Weitering
Collingwood - Jordan De Goey and Brodie Grundy
Essendon - Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett
Fremantle - Andy Brayshaw and David Mundy
Geelong - Cam Guthrie and Tom Hawkins
Gold Coast - Touk Miller and Ben King
Greater Western Sydney - Josh Kelly and Toby Greene
Hawthorn - Tom Mitchell and Jaegar O'Meara
Melbourne - Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca
North Melbourne - Ben Cunnington and Jy Simpkin
Port Adelaide - Ollie Wines and Travis Boak
Richmond - Shai Bolton and Dustin Martin
St Kilda - Jack Steele and Luke Dunstan
Sydney - Callum Mills and Luke Parker
West Coast - Nic Naitanui and Andrew Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae

Brownlow - Jack Steele

Trifecta (any order) - Jack Steele, Marcus Bontempelli, Clayton Oliver
First 4 (any order) - Jack Steele, Marcus Bontempelli, Clayton Oliver, Sam Walsh

Figured I'd get in early and can always change if injury or suspension occurs. This competition seems like a lot of fun so am excited to try it. I don't really understand the trifecta or first 4 but am assuming it's just the top 3 and 4 highest placements (is this wrong?).

Just added a few additions / changes just FYI 🙂

 

[Stormzy]

Just added a few additions / changes just FYI 🙂

Thanks just edited my submission to account for the additions.

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

Adelaide - Laird, Walker
Brisbane - Lyons, McCluggage
Carlton - Walsh, McKay
Collingwood - De Goey, Crisp
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Brayshaw
Geelong - C Guthrie, Stewart
Gold Coast - Miller, Ellis
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Hopper
Hawthorn - Mitchell, O'Meara
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Cunnington, Simpkin
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Martin, Riewoldt
St Kilda - Steele, Dunstan
Sydney - Mills, Parker
West Coast - Kelly, Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Bontempelli, Macrae

2. Brownlow - Oliver
3. First 4 (any order) - Oliver, Bontempelli, Walsh, Wines
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Western Bulldogs
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - North Melbourne
6. Leader at Round 11 - Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 34+

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

Adelaide - Laird, Walker
Brisbane - Lyons, McCluggage
Carlton - Walsh, McKay
Collingwood - De Goey, Crisp
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Brayshaw
Geelong - C Guthrie, Stewart
Gold Coast - Miller, Ellis
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Hopper
Hawthorn - Mitchell, O'Meara
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Cunnington, Simpkin
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Martin, Riewoldt
St Kilda - Steele, Dunstan
Sydney - Mills, Parker
West Coast - Kelly, Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Bontempelli, Macrae

2. Brownlow - Oliver
3. First 4 (any order) - Oliver, Bontempelli, Walsh, Wines
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Western Bulldogs
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - North Melbourne
6. Leader at Round 11 - Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 34+

I reserve the right to update this over the next 3 rounds!

Really hope I'm right on Oliver. Laid down a reasonable wager back in Rd 9 when he was still 17/1.

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

This is my analysis with three rounds to go. Fair to say I spend way too much time on this **** haha

 

[kennychao]

I reserve the right to update this over the next 3 rounds!

Really hope I'm right on Oliver. Laid down a reasonable wager back in Rd 9 when he was still 17/1.

I noted that you can update until 9am the day of the count 🙂

 

[kennychao]

I reserve the right to update this over the next 3 rounds!

Really hope I'm right on Oliver. Laid down a reasonable wager back in Rd 9 when he was still 17/1.

Damn that’s a solid go!

 

[randomcliche]

This is my analysis with three rounds to go. Fair to say I spend way too much time on this **** haha

View attachment 33063

How does Macrae 1.4% and Bont 99.2% work?

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

How does Macrae 1.4% and Bont 99.2% work?

I run a simulator 1000 times - whenever they both won, that pushes the total above 100%. So 6/1000 times I had them level, 8/1000 times Macrae won outright, 986/1000 bont won outright (when I say won, I mean would be leading at round 20)

 

[randomcliche]

I run a simulator 1000 times - whenever they both won, that pushes the total above 100%. So 6/1000 times I had them level, 8/1000 times Macrae won outright, 986/1000 bont won outright (when I say won, I mean would be leading at round 20)

Nice, got it!

 

[Ironhawk]

I was a bit surprised this didn't have more people enter. I assume you are still running this (seeing as the last post was more than a month ago)?

Adelaide - Laird, Walker
Brisbane - Lyons, McCluggage
Carlton - Walsh, McKay
Collingwood - de Goey, Grundy
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Brayshaw
Geelong - C Guthrie, Dangerfield
Gold Coast - Miller, Anderson
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Greene
Hawthorn - Mitchell, O'Meara
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Cunnington, Hall
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Martin, Graham
St Kilda - Steele, Crouch
Sydney - Mills, Parker
West Coast - Naitanui, Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Bontempelli, Macrae

2. Brownlow - Oliver
3. First 4 (any order) - Oliver, Bontempelli, Wines, Steele
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Dogs
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - Suns
6. Leader at Round 11 - Bontempelli
7. Brownlow Winner vote range - 28-30

 

[kennychao]

Yes - still running (low key forgot about the post the last one was that long ago)!

Everyone get your predictors in!

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Adelaide - Laird, Walker
Brisbane - McCluggage, Zorko
Carlton - Walsh, McKay
Collingwood - Grundy, Crisp
Essendon - Parish, Zerrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Brayshaw
Geelong - Stewart, Selwood
Gold Coast - Miller, Anderson
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Greene
Hawthorn - Mitchell, JOM
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Simpkin, Stephenson
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Martin, Bolton
St Kilda - Steele, Crouch
Sydney - Parker, Mills
West Coast - NicNat, Kelly
Western Bulldogs - Bont, Macrae

2. Brownlow - Steele
3. First 4 (any order) - Steele, Wines, Oliver, Bont
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - WB
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - North
6. Leader at Round 11 - Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 28-30

 

[wogitalia]

Will give it a crack, going to use my count as what's the point of doing one if you don't use it!

Adelaide - Laird, Keays
Brisbane - Lyons, McCluggage
Carlton - Walsh, E. Curnow
Collingwood - De Goey, Adams
Essendon - Parish, Zerrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Brayshaw
Geelong - C. Guthrie, Dangerfield
Gold Coast - Miller, B. Ellis
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Taranto
Hawthorn - Mitchell, JOM
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Simpkin, Cunnington
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Martin, Riewoldt
St Kilda - Steele, Crouch
Sydney - Parker, Mills
West Coast - NicNat, Kelly
Western Bulldogs - Bont, Macrae

2. Brownlow - Steele
3. First 4 (any order) - Steele, Oliver, Bontempelli, Walsh
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Melbourne
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - North Melbourne
6. Leader at Round 11 - Clayton Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 28-30

 

[Vicwood]

Adelaide - Laird, Keays
Brisbane - Lyons, Zorko
Carlton - Walsh, McKay
Collingwood - Crisp, Maynard
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Darcy
Geelong - C. Guthrie, Stewart
Gold Coast - Miller, B. Ellis
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Taranto
Hawthorn - Mitchell, Wingard
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Hall, Zieball
Port Adelaide - Wines, Alir Alir
Richmond - Short, Martin
St Kilda - Steele, Marshall
Sydney - Mills, Dawson
West Coast - NicNat, Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Bont, Macrae


2. Brownlow - Oliver
3. First 4 (any order) - , Oliver, Bontempelli, Parish, Macrae
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Melbourne
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - Carlton
6. Leader at Round 11 - Bontempeli
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 26-28