Competitions F1 Fantasy

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Hawthorn
I've prepared some driver and teams break evens going into round 15 which is in two weeks time.

Drivers: Dan Ric -25, Bottas -13, Stroll 5, Gio 6, Leclerc 10, Kimi 12, Norris 13, Schumacher 21, Perez 25, Alonso 29, Mazepin 34, Latifi 36, Vettel 53, Gasly 58, Tsunoda 62, Sainz 66, Ocon 74, Russell 76, Max 134, Hamilton 158

Teams: McLaren -9, Alfa 24, Haas 28, Aston 42, Ferrari 65, Alpine 70, Williams 71, Mercedes 71, Red Bull 92, Alpha 95

Is it as simple as trading in McLaren cars and drivers this round?
If you need cash fast it certainly is. And if you've been making cash from Williams and Russell recently than it's an obvious switch. McLaren will increase 0.2K and Dan Ric will increase 0.5K as soon as they start FP1. But if you don't need cash, you'll need to weigh up how many points McLaren may actually score in Russia.

It's worth keeping a trade free for Bottas if you don't already have him. It's looking more and more likely that he will finish the season as the 3rd highest scoring driver. With a BE of -13, he has the potential to add over $2M at the next round, even if he finishes a distant 3rd.

Do we know who the number 4 driver is yet?...still
Nope not at all. It's probably worth just selecting one of Perez/Norris/Leclerc/Sainz and Dan Ric that performs well in Friday practice. Many will take Dan Ric for the next round knowing that the money will keep them safe to trade again the next round. But of the drivers listed above only Sainz has a significant BE, so you still need Dan Ric to score competitively to make the points scored / cash generated worth it.

Is it too late to catch up to the top 25 teams?
A look at the rankings page shows of the top 14 teams, 6 moved up 20 places or more last round. Many of them still have teams worth less than $180M. So a couple of races where Red Bull and Mercedes dominate would change everything.

Trades
Despite McLaren's negative BE, unless they are genuinely quicker than Mercedes or Red Bull, it's unlikely I'll be trading them in.

If Dan Ric is competitive on Friday, it's going to be an easy trade week. Otherwise, if Perez, Norris or Leclerc looks much quicker than him, I may pass up the dollars from Dan Ric and try to move back up the rankings.

Out: Gasly
In: Dan Ric/Perez/Norris/Leclerc

Max C, Hamilton, Bottas, Dan Ric/Perez/Norris/Leclerc
Mercedes, Mercedes, Red Bull, Red Bull
Bank $0.5M-1M
 
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Carlton
Would be a ballsy trade out, as you'd think he scores what Bottas did in Monza at the very least (and a very good chance of FL points as well). That said, if you can pick the second and third place finishers (assuming Lewis P1) out of Bottas/Norris/Perez/Leclerc/DR, you likely get ~200 points for not much more expensive than the cost of Max. Might be something in it!
Going to try and apply a bit of maths to this. We've seen two runs from the back in the last two races: Perez and Bottas.
Perez - 20th to 8th, at Zandvoort where overtaking was supposed to be very hard, but where RB clearly had the best car. No strategic or safety car assistance. Probably the lower end of the range we can expect. 64 points.
Bottas - 19th to 3rd, at Monza where overtaking was supposed to be moderately hard, but where Merc clearly had the best car. Had some luck with HAM/VER crashing, the Perez penalty and the safety car. Probably the upper end of the range we can expect. 124 points.

Of course neither of them got the fastest lap so that does scale the range up a little bit, but in order to beat that even at the lower end you're probably looking at someone finishing 4th or better - Ricciardo got 72 for 4th/4th in Belgium, for example. Might not be worth it unless you can get the entire top four in that case.
 
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Collingwood
Going to try and apply a bit of maths to this. We've seen two runs from the back in the last two races: Perez and Bottas.
Perez - 20th to 8th, at Zandvoort where overtaking was supposed to be very hard, but where RB clearly had the best car. No strategic or safety car assistance. Probably the lower end of the range we can expect. 64 points.
Bottas - 19th to 3rd, at Monza where overtaking was supposed to be moderately hard, but where Merc clearly had the best car. Had some luck with HAM/VER crashing, the Perez penalty and the safety car. Probably the upper end of the range we can expect. 124 points.

Of course neither of them got the fastest lap so that does scale the range up a little bit, but in order to beat that even at the lower end you're probably looking at someone finishing 4th or better - Ricciardo got 72 for 4th/4th in Belgium, for example. Might not be worth it unless you can get the entire top four in that case.
Yeah just realised I buggered up a bit by suggesting 2nd and 3rd place will get you 200 points, but in the same breath suggesting Max should match Bottas (and get up to 3rd). I do think it's more likely Max gets back to 3rd though, given Sochi seems to be the place RB were planning to take the penalty anyway, and Max is very comfortable with a low downforce setup in order to find straight line speed to execute going into T2.

Think you're right - if we could call the top 4 accurately we would know what decision to make, but then again we could do that it would be more efficient to spend our time running Sportsbet out of business!
 
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