Position Forwards Discussion

[pizza safety]

Sitting at F3 for me mate. Played mid to start 2018 and was forced out when Wingard had dropped his off season weight. Good chance he gets more time around the ball as he’s arguably our best clearance player and we really struggled for clearances once he went forward.

Reckon Butters slots into his spot in the pocket and if he can hold it down, body permitting, Gray plays mostly as a mid in 2019.

FWIW Butters is likely the best small forward we’ve drafter in over a decade based on what I’ve seen of him, so I think if he can crack the side early, he’ll sit there for as many games as his body can stand.

I am somewhat sceptical as I’m really struggling to gauge where Port are in terms of the competition. If we maintain or improve position, I reckon Robbie ends up a good pick. If we’re garbage, which is entirely possible, he’ll probably not quite cut the mustard.

It's probably going to be either Robbie or Wingard in my side Russ. I prefer Robbie if he's playing midfield but it's looking like I can probably only afford Wingard at F3. I think Gray averaged 116 in his first 6 games this year before being shifted back into the forward line.

 

[Darkie]

Sitting at F3 for me mate. Played mid to start 2018 and was forced out when Wingard had dropped his off season weight. Good chance he gets more time around the ball as he’s arguably our best clearance player and we really struggled for clearances once he went forward.

Reckon Butters slots into his spot in the pocket and if he can hold it down, body permitting, Gray plays mostly as a mid in 2019.

FWIW Butters is likely the best small forward we’ve drafter in over a decade based on what I’ve seen of him, so I think if he can crack the side early, he’ll sit there for as many games as his body can stand.

I am somewhat sceptical as I’m really struggling to gauge where Port are in terms of the competition. If we maintain or improve position, I reckon Robbie ends up a good pick. If we’re garbage, which is entirely possible, he’ll probably not quite cut the mustard.

Thanks mate, great colour as always.

Looks like Gray went at around 109 before Wingard started to score well around the bye.

Thinking more about this, Polec and Wingard have both left since this season, and Lycett and Butters have joined, with Ryder hopefully playing more games - so quite a lot of midfield minutes have potentially been freed up, and there are a few more forward options (albeit at different "heights") as well. A few factors suggest Gray might be less needed up forward and more needed in the midfield.

I'm thinking of switching D Smith to Gray, and erring on doing it. Smith did better in the second half of the year, but there may be a bit more downside risk with him (from Shiel), whereas Gray seems to have the risk skewed to the upside (from more midfield minutes, a better observed ceiling, and potentially better fitness with longer to recover from his cancer bout). Interestingly Gray played mid early in the year, so perhaps the upside from fitness is pretty modest ... albeit presumably it can't hurt.

 

[Bomber18]

Thanks mate, great colour as always.

Looks like Gray went at around 109 before Wingard started to score well around the bye.

Thinking more about this, Polec and Wingard have both left since this season, and Lycett and Butters have joined, with Ryder hopefully playing more games - so quite a lot of midfield minutes have potentially been freed up, and there are a few more forward options (albeit at different "heights") as well. A few factors suggest Gray might be less needed up forward and more needed in the midfield.

I'm thinking of switching D Smith to Gray, and erring on doing it. Smith did better in the second half of the year, but there may be a bit more downside risk with him (from Shiel), whereas Gray seems to have the risk skewed to the upside (from more midfield minutes, a better observed ceiling, and potentially better fitness with longer to recover from his cancer bout). Interestingly Gray played mid early in the year, so perhaps the upside from fitness is pretty modest ... albeit presumably it can't hurt.

Gray sounds like he'll be a good starting pick - I'll put him in my likely basket alongside Danger and Heeney.

 

[Connoisseur]

Gray sounds like he'll be a good starting pick - I'll put him in my likely basket alongside Danger and Heeney.

Thanks mate, great colour as always.

Looks like Gray went at around 109 before Wingard started to score well around the bye.

Thinking more about this, Polec and Wingard have both left since this season, and Lycett and Butters have joined, with Ryder hopefully playing more games - so quite a lot of midfield minutes have potentially been freed up, and there are a few more forward options (albeit at different "heights") as well. A few factors suggest Gray might be less needed up forward and more needed in the midfield.

I'm thinking of switching D Smith to Gray, and erring on doing it. Smith did better in the second half of the year, but there may be a bit more downside risk with him (from Shiel), whereas Gray seems to have the risk skewed to the upside (from more midfield minutes, a better observed ceiling, and potentially better fitness with longer to recover from his cancer bout). Interestingly Gray played mid early in the year, so perhaps the upside from fitness is pretty modest ... albeit presumably it can't hurt.

2018 Pre Bye Avg: 110 from 8
Averaged 25.63 disposals pre bye.

2018 Post Bye Avg: 88.69 from 13
Averaged 18 disposals post bye.

Out of all the major stat categories his biggest differential was 31.64 which occurred when his disposals were either below or equalling/exceeding 21.
Disposals: 20.90
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 114.89 from 9 (low of 89 and a high of 145, 1/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 83.25 from 12 (low of 37 and a high of 122, 10/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)

Hopefully with the departure of J Polec and C Wingard and arrival of mid/fwd rookies and S Lycett, Gray returns to an extended midfield role which will be beneficial for the team as the current midfield group are all the same style (contested, poor disposal efficiency).

 

[Manikato1]

Sitting at F3 for me mate. Played mid to start 2018 and was forced out when Wingard had dropped his off season weight. Good chance he gets more time around the ball as he’s arguably our best clearance player and we really struggled for clearances once he went forward.

Reckon Butters slots into his spot in the pocket and if he can hold it down, body permitting, Gray plays mostly as a mid in 2019.

FWIW Butters is likely the best small forward we’ve drafter in over a decade based on what I’ve seen of him, so I think if he can crack the side early, he’ll sit there for as many games as his body can stand.

I am somewhat sceptical as I’m really struggling to gauge where Port are in terms of the competition. If we maintain or improve position, I reckon Robbie ends up a good pick. If we’re garbage, which is entirely possible, he’ll probably not quite cut the mustard.

Hi Big Russ. Your point about Gray is well made and I have added him into my list of fwds although not sure how I will fit him in. Still a long way to games one. I know this is the fwd thread but your point about clearances and with Polec and Wingard gone does this mean Rocky can make a comeback? I know he was under done this year then got more injuries as the season progressed so 2018 is probably a write off. Is he cooked? Even allowing for the fact that he misses games he is priced around an ave of 74 but could go 100+ if anywhere near fit.

 

[IDIG]

I’m really torn with him myself. Seems an obvious pick with decent upside but the whole not wanting to be there business can’t be a good thing.

I think I read somewhere GAJ will be spending more time fwd next year which can’t hurt Kelly though at the same time.

Confirmed. Whether that helps Kelly is still to be seen.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1078444846271029249

 

[Bomber18]

Hi Big Russ. Your point about Gray is well made and I have added him into my list of fwds although not sure how I will fit him in. Still a long way to games one. I know this is the fwd thread but your point about clearances and with Polec and Wingard gone does this mean Rocky can make a comeback? I know he was under done this year then got more injuries as the season progressed so 2018 is probably a write off. Is he cooked? Even allowing for the fact that he misses games he is priced around an ave of 74 but could go 100+ if anywhere near fit.

No no no surely not again...... ._.
Fool me... how many times again before shame on me?

 

[BigRuss]

Hi Big Russ. Your point about Gray is well made and I have added him into my list of fwds although not sure how I will fit him in. Still a long way to games one. I know this is the fwd thread but your point about clearances and with Polec and Wingard gone does this mean Rocky can make a comeback? I know he was under done this year then got more injuries as the season progressed so 2018 is probably a write off. Is he cooked? Even allowing for the fact that he misses games he is priced around an ave of 74 but could go 100+ if anywhere near fit.

Yeah Rocky’s a real interesting one that ill monitor pretty closely over the summer. Should state that I wasn’t burned by him last year so I’m probably more open to the idea of him than a few others around here.

Had his shoulder rebuilt again post season and while I’m not sure about what sort of track record the lions have, Port have a really good history fixing players with recurring injuries. I think his fitnesss was more the issue with his scoring in 2017 so if he can get a good base there’s a chance he bounces back.

He without a doubt has the smallest shoulders of any human who has ever lived though, really blows the mind when you see him up close.

In regards to filling Polec and Wingards mid minutes, I really think we’ll see Powell Pepper take a large stride forward this year. Had his brain farts this season and has owned it and stated he wants to be better. Probably not one for supercoach but I’m hopeful he plays a large part in fixing our clearance deficiencies, along with a fit ruckman or any ruckman at all for that matter.

 

[Manikato1]

Yeah Rocky’s a real interesting one that ill monitor pretty closely over the summer. Should state that I wasn’t burned by him last year so I’m probably more open to the idea of him than a few others around here.

Had his shoulder rebuilt again post season and while I’m not sure about what sort of track record the lions have, Port have a really good history fixing players with recurring injuries. I think his fitnesss was more the issue with his scoring in 2017 so if he can get a good base there’s a chance he bounces back.

He without a doubt has the smallest shoulders of any human who has ever lived though, really blows the mind when you see him up close.

In regards to filling Polec and Wingards mid minutes, I really think we’ll see Powell Pepper take a large stride forward this year. Had his brain farts this season and has owned it and stated he wants to be better. Probably not one for supercoach but I’m hopeful he plays a large part in fixing our clearance deficiencies, along with a fit ruckman or any ruckman at all for that matter.

Thanks for your thoughts. Feedback is greatly appreciated. I can roll with Rocky's injuries this season as a reason for his drop in ave. Clearly a risk in that he will always miss games and may not come back but if he turns up fit for rd 1 you just have to wonder what he could pull out. He only had 2 120+ scores this year but in 2017 his first 8 games produced 7 tons and 4 of them were over 135. When fit his high ceiling actually makes him a viable VC loop.

I love this time of the SC year

 

[pizza safety]

Seems like the idea that Westhoff's scoring this year was primarily from extra ruck time is a bit of a myth.

Round 5: 26 hitouts, 106 supercoach score

R3: 15 hitouts 82 supercoach score

R18: 12 hitouts 82 supercoach score

R2: 11 hitouts, 111 supercoach score

R13: 11 hitouts 114 supercoach score

R19: 11 hitouts. 85 supercoach score

R12: 10 hitouts, 92 supercoach score

R14: 9 hitouts, 106 supercoach score

R22: 9 hitouts, 126 supercoach score

R7: 7 hitouts, 85 supercoach score

R9: 7 hitouts , 89 supercoach score

R15: 7 hitouts, 120 supercoach score

R16: 7 hitouts, 96 supercoach score

R20: 6 hitouts, 73 supercoach score

R21: 6 hitouts, 86 supercoach score

R1: 5 hitouts, 140 supercoach score

R4: 5 hitouts, 88 supercoach score

R17: 5 hitouts, 88 supercoach score

R23: 5 hitouts, 120 supercoach score

R6: 4 hitouts, 147 supercoach score

R11: 3 hitouts, 75 supercoach score

R8: 2 hitouts, 116 supercoach score


Ruck time may have helped him get a couple of points here or there and given him an extra avenue to scoring but it doesn't seem to explain most of his scores. In a lot of them you'd imaging he'd only have 0-3 hitouts to advantage.

I won't be picking him due to his scoring history, not because of the lack of ruck time.

 

[Darkie]

Confirmed. Whether that helps Kelly is still to be seen.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1078444846271029249

Could be good for Menegola as well.

 

[pizza safety]

Could be good for Menegola as well.

He might see more time but I reckon they would still prefer to use Kelly and youngsters like Parfitt, Fogarty and Constable in the middle simply because Menegola is highly capable as a half forward and isn't really a clearance beast.

 

[Woodsey]

Is there any news if Petracca has increased his tank this year and if he will get more midfield time?
I think there’s no doubt Petracca will go up another level in the next few years but it’s picking the year he does that’s the tricky part!

Has 60 games under his belt and definitely showed glimpses last year which are both real positives.

 

[Bermi]

Is there any news if Petracca has increased his tank this year and if he will get more midfield time?
I think there’s no doubt Petracca will go up another level in the next few years but it’s picking the year he does that’s the tricky part!

Has 60 games under his belt and definitely showed glimpses last year which are both real positives.

I had Petracca all last year and he disappointed me. He's so talented, but goes missing too much for my liking, I'm not sure why. At the moment, he's on my 'never again' list

 

[Rowsus]

As a Melbourne fan, my advice would be, stay away from our Midfielders, outside of Oliver. We have so many that can play Mid/Fwd/Wing, they are just not likely to get a good, regular go at it. We just roll them through, and a player that plays 60% one week or two, might 25-30% the next few games.

 

[Woodsey]

Thank you for your feedback. Josh Kennedy might be a safer pick in a similar price range.

 

[Johno9911]

Not a lot of love for Jesse Hogan at this point? Had a cracking start to the year last year, went at 96ppg before the bye.

Gone to Freo, who now has a surplus of talls, with Hogan joining Lobb/McCarthy/Tabener/Cox.

Could we see Hogan roam more up the ground ala Reiwoldt, leaving the likes of the above to be the permanent tall forwards?

 

[Zagbag]

Not a lot of love for Jesse Hogan at this point? Had a cracking start to the year last year, went at 96ppg before the bye.

Gone to Freo, who now has a surplus of talls, with Hogan joining Lobb/McCarthy/Tabener/Cox.

Could we see Hogan roam more up the ground ala Reiwoldt, leaving the likes of the above to be the permanent tall forwards?

Love the theory, but I just feel a bit uneasy about paying 96 ppg for a player when I paid 70 odd for him last year. One of those odd psychological hurdles.

 

[Bermi]

Not a lot of love for Jesse Hogan at this point? Had a cracking start to the year last year, went at 96ppg before the bye.

Gone to Freo, who now has a surplus of talls, with Hogan joining Lobb/McCarthy/Tabener/Cox.

Could we see Hogan roam more up the ground ala Reiwoldt, leaving the likes of the above to be the permanent tall forwards?

RE: ……… Had a cracking start to the year last year, went at 96ppg before the bye...….
Hogan's Dad passed away mid year, that wouldn't have helped his home sickness feelings after the Bye.

In August suffered a partial stress fracture in the navicular bone in his right foot.

According to Bernie Vince (see below), sounds like Hogan was home sick and not playing his best football, so a change to Freo may help his performance.

Monday, 1 October 2018
Retiring Demon Bernie Vince says Jesse Hogan should head home to Western Australia if it will make him happy after a torrid few years on the personal front.
"He's got to work out what's best for Jesse Hogan before anything else. His footy will follow that. If people are happy, they play their best footy," Vince said.
"He's been through a fair bit and through a lot of things that people never have to go through. He'll sort it out."
Jennifer Phelan for AFL.com.au

 

[TopBillings]

As a Melbourne fan, my advice would be, stay away from our Midfielders, outside of Oliver. We have so many that can play Mid/Fwd/Wing, they are just not likely to get a good, regular go at it. We just roll them through, and a player that plays 60% one week or two, might 25-30% the next few games.

Thoughts on Clarry’s avg in 2019?