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I blame Albo. We still want the public holiday you have been promising us, even though the Matildas didn't make the final! Jinxed them.

Great effort to get so far, hopefully they can learn some lessons from this and take it out on Sweden on Saturday, and that they can make it at least one win further in 4 years time.

I blame Albo. We still want the public holiday you have been promising us, even though the Matildas didn't make the final! Jinxed them.

Great effort to get so far, hopefully they can learn some lessons from this and take it out on Sweden on Saturday, and that they can make it at least one win further in 4 years time.

As for the public holiday crap, just absolute rubbish from people wanting to garnish brownie points! And the media coverage of it, cringe worthy. But that should be left for a RANT rage, er page 🤣

The odds of each team "winning" the flag are:

Teams 1st to 4th = 18.75% each.

Teams 5th to 8th = 6.25% each.

Nothing too hard to picture amongst those numbers.

But this is harder to picture. But once you know why, it's easy to explain to someone.

Which combination/s of 2 teams are most likely to toss off for the premiership?

A top 4 team v a 5th to 8th team:

1st or 4th v 5th or 8th 3.13% for each of the 4 combinations.

1st or 4th v 6th or 7th 1.56% each.

2nd or 3rd v 5th or 8th 1.56 % each.

2nd or 3rd v 6th or 7th 3.13% each.

2 teams from 5th to 8th 1.56% for each of the 4 possible combinations.

Most people would assume that for example 1 v 2 would happen more often than 1 v 4, because 1 has already played 4. A repeat game in the GF will happen 60% more times, than the other 4 possible combinations of top 4 teams!

2 top 4 teams 56.25%

Top 4 v 5th to 8th 37.5%

2 5th to 8th teams 6.25%

You could win some beers down the pub with this one!!!

The odds of each team "winning" the flag are:

Teams 1st to 4th = 18.75% each.

Teams 5th to 8th = 6.25% each.

Nothing too hard to picture amongst those numbers.

But this is harder to picture. But once you know why, it's easy to explain to someone.

Which combination/s of 2 teams are most likely to toss off for the premiership?

A top 4 team v a 5th to 8th team:

1st or 4th v 5th or 8th 3.13% for each of the 4 combinations.

1st or 4th v 6th or 7th 1.56% each.

2nd or 3rd v 5th or 8th 1.56 % each.

2nd or 3rd v 6th or 7th 3.13% each.

2 teams from 5th to 8th 1.56% for each of the 4 possible combinations.

Most people would assume that for example 1 v 2 would happen more often than 1 v 4, because 1 has already played 4. A repeat game in the GF will happen 60% more times, than the other 4 possible combinations of top 4 teams!

2 top 4 teams 56.25%

Top 4 v 5th to 8th 37.5%

2 5th to 8th teams 6.25%

You could win some beers down the pub with this one!!!

The odds of each team "winning" the flag are:

Teams 1st to 4th = 18.75% each.

Teams 5th to 8th = 6.25% each.

Nothing too hard to picture amongst those numbers.

But this is harder to picture. But once you know why, it's easy to explain to someone.

Which combination/s of 2 teams are most likely to toss off for the premiership?

A top 4 team v a 5th to 8th team:

1st or 4th v 5th or 8th 3.13% for each of the 4 combinations.

1st or 4th v 6th or 7th 1.56% each.

2nd or 3rd v 5th or 8th 1.56 % each.

2nd or 3rd v 6th or 7th 3.13% each.

2 teams from 5th to 8th 1.56% for each of the 4 possible combinations.

Most people would assume that for example 1 v 2 would happen more often than 1 v 4, because 1 has already played 4. A repeat game in the GF will happen 60% more times, than the other 4 possible combinations of top 4 teams!

2 top 4 teams 56.25%

Top 4 v 5th to 8th 37.5%

2 5th to 8th teams 6.25%

You could win some beers down the pub with this one!!!

I will write a "simple" explanation to this on Sunday, so you can convince the doubting Thomas'.

Almost surely going to change with how close it is this year and 6 games to go. It always changes.

I think the top 5 are probably safe. Saints have a tough last month and probably drop out, Dogs have a fairly easy draw, as do Essendon so both should stay in. I'd say the Blues are possibly best placed to knock the Saints out, but it's Carlton, both those clubs would be hard to follow with how often they lose games they should win. Maybe Sydney comes from way back, they seem to have a reasonable draw? Richmond maybe. Don't know, but I do know that my pre-season ladder is going to be way off.

I think the top 5 are probably safe. Saints have a tough last month and probably drop out, Dogs have a fairly easy draw, as do Essendon so both should stay in. I'd say the Blues are possibly best placed to knock the Saints out, but it's Carlton, both those clubs would be hard to follow with how often they lose games they should win. Maybe Sydney comes from way back, they seem to have a reasonable draw? Richmond maybe. Don't know, but I do know that my pre-season ladder is going to be way off.

I think I said Geelong was one of the 5 looking like they were safe - they are pretty much eliminated. Saints are looking good to make finals, Bombers will almost surely miss, and it's looking like Dogs v Giants for the final spot (I'm assuming the Dogs beat the Eagles tomorrow, but I probably shouldn't). I did call Carlton and Sydney being good chances for the top 8 I guess.

Edit: This was in response to if the eight teams in the top 8 would change from after Rd 18.

Not sure we've ever seen a season, where so many teams have self destructed their finals chance, or what position they hold inside the 8, so late in the season!!!

This table shows the premiership points after every round, sorted by the final order:

Lions made finals with 10.5 wins, and Richmond were 13th with ten!

But look at all the teams that tried so desperately to play themselves out of a spot:

Lions - 0.5 from last 4

Port - 0.5 from last 5

Collingwood - 2 from last 5

Carlton - 2 from last 6

Fremantle - 0 from last 3 (and 1 from last 5), including to bottom placed Melbourne in the last round

Not to mention Hawthorn, who were in the eight as late as round 15 (tied with minor premiers St Kilda!!), but managed to lose all of their last eight games to come second last!

I remembered this season being very strange at the end but I didn't remember it being that crazy!

The odds of each team "winning" the flag are:

Teams 1st to 4th = 18.75% each.

Teams 5th to 8th = 6.25% each.

Nothing too hard to picture amongst those numbers.

But this is harder to picture. But once you know why, it's easy to explain to someone.

Which combination/s of 2 teams are most likely to toss off for the premiership?

A top 4 team v a 5th to 8th team:

1st or 4th v 5th or 8th 3.13% for each of the 4 combinations.

1st or 4th v 6th or 7th 1.56% each.

2nd or 3rd v 5th or 8th 1.56 % each.

2nd or 3rd v 6th or 7th 3.13% each.

2 teams from 5th to 8th 1.56% for each of the 4 possible combinations.

Most people would assume that for example 1 v 2 would happen more often than 1 v 4, because 1 has already played 4. A repeat game in the GF will happen 60% more times, than the other 4 possible combinations of top 4 teams!

2 top 4 teams 56.25%

Top 4 v 5th to 8th 37.5%

2 5th to 8th teams 6.25%

You could win some beers down the pub with this one!!!

1 v 4, 2 v 3 will play off in the GF 12.5% of the time, and 1 v 2, 1 v 3, 2 v 4, 3 v 4 7.81% of the time, in a coin toss final series.

First let's look at a 1 v 2 GF.

For 1 to play 2 in the GF they either have to both win in week 1, or both lose. This will happen 50% of the time.

Both win - this happens 25% of the time. They then both have to win their PF's also 25%. 25% x (50% x 50%) = 6.25%

Both lose - this happens 25% of the time. They then both need to go win - win to make the GF. So we get:

25% x (50% x 50%) x (50% x 50%) = 1.5625% ::: 6.25% + 1.5625% = 7.1825% of the time 1 v 2 in the GF.

Now look at a 1 v 4 GF.

The result of the first game is irrelevant, as both teams are now in opposite halves of the draw after week 1.

This where the big difference is. In week 1 of 1 v 2 we only moved forward 50% of the time, with 1 v 4 we move forward 100% of the time.

The winner of week 1 needs to win their PF to make the GF, so 50%. The loser of week 1 needs to go win - win to make the GF so 50% x 50%.

This gives us a 100% x (50%) x (50% x 50%) = 12.5% chance of a 1 v 4 GF.

What does everyone think about the Top 8? Is it set or do you anticipate changes?

https://liveladders.com/AFL/

https://liveladders.com/AFL/

Every season, for the past 6 seasons, the side sitting 10th, with 6 Rounds to play, have snuck into the top 8.

View attachment 59760

View attachment 59760

7 years in a row, the team sitting 10th with 6 Rounds to go has made the final 8!!!!

Carlton's form looks genuine. They're 3-0 against teams in the 8 on this form ladder. They're 4-0 against teams in the 8 on the actual ladder.

GWS appear to be the biggest pretender. They're 0-1 against top 8 teams on the form ladder, and 0-2 against the top 8 on the actual ladder.

Sydney also look like they're possibly pretenders. They've only played 1 team in the top 8 on the form ladder, and 1 team from the top 8 on the actual ladder. Their is no visible depth to their form, even though they've won 6 in a row.

Melbournes form looks 2nd best, being 2-1 and 1-1 on the 2 ladders.

Collingwood and particularly Port look like they might be in for a hard finals season, based on their 6 week form. Brisbane is inconclusive.

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Surely if you are one of the other 17 coaches or recruitment teams you make serious enquiries about Maccrae and Smith

Both look lost at the moment being Bevo'ed and playing out of position. They are midfielders not forwards. Criminal to watch macrae playing fwd line every week. He is a hunter and gatherer who suffers regularly from leather poisoning when playing in.the guts.