Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[TeeButOne]

Rowsus,

I didn't want to specifically ask you a team question in this thread, but my mind has been running about the fact that I've got about $70k-$75k left in the bank, and was wondering if you think it worthwhile upgrading any of my cheaper premiums for a higher-priced, proven premium.

Without going through all of them, the ones that I'd be most interested in would be:

Dangerfield (M4) / Griffen (M5) in the MID
- Already have Ablett, Pendlebury & Selwood, would next be considering someone like JPK (but would just fall short by going from Griffen)

Stick with my structure (and some cash in the bank), or upgrade? Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

With Young as an emergency its thrown my side into chaos
Have throwing around a few options and was wondering if you could please help me ....again.
I am thinking

Goddard and Kolodashni

Vs

Dalhaus and Harry Taylor

Vs

Lumumba and Buddy

 

[The Phoenix]

Rowsus. I know we are thinking it - how much do we take out of Doch's game last night? He played well and I heard that he had a 90% pre-season this year whereas last year it was about 20%. Of course it was his highest score by 37 points, so lets not get carried away heh...

Still, a question remains - with the Blues playing WCE next week, a game they should go ok in, what score does Doch need for you to decide that he requires a corrective trade to get him in ala DSwallow last year?

Cheers. Hope the dinner was/is good

A few things I have been pondering re Docherty:

NAB is for rookies . He's now played well when it counts and showed he has the skills to return some quality numbers. There are not of challengers at Carlton from what I can see for his points this year for his role.

Furtermore a lot of people started with DSwallow last year and the longer you waited to get him the bigger the disadvantage and risk. All one did was neutralize him, previous points were lost. I hate the disadvantage of being a follower and not a leader with trades (albeit it does have risk). I don't have numbers but for the exercise DS may have been in 40 to 50% of teams at the start. I read somewhere that Doch is in less than 1% of teams .

Pre-season research indicated that Docherty was well worth serious consideration. Unlike with DS a window of opportunity exists to follow the gut with Doch and get the jump on a lot of other Supercoachers in the tough defensive line and maybe even free up some cash.

Risk vs reward and I wouldn't normally suggest thinking this way except that the Doch was already on the shortlist and may have just proven why. Sometimes he who hesitates loses and the early bird catches the worm.

Anyway just food for thought...or maybe just junk food. Sorry, thank-you.

 

[apolis]

Doesn't Walker play a very similar role? When is he due back?

 

[anfa18]

Doesn't Walker play a very similar role? When is he due back?

Due back in 2 weeks

 

[brad182]

Hey Rowsus late night thoughts here but am I crazy getting in Hallahan? I have this feeling he's going to go bang tomorrow... New club first game for the season, will want to show somthing to keep his place. What do you reckon? Am I going crazy?

 

[Imcjb]

Rowsus, love your insight and effort mate. My question revolves around my D1. J Kelly vs H Taylor. (XXX, Johnson, Newnes, Lumumba, Goodes, K-mac)

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, just a quick one.

Any observations on how the new ruck scoring effected last nights players?

Or is it still far too little data to make any real conclusions?

Hey Philzsay,
way too little data yet, but we can only compare what we have. Unfortunately I don't know where to find the HO to Adv from that game, so we just go with the bare stats.

It's actually quite scary, when you look at it. The top section is their games last season.
Wood, comparing his output to games last season, I get the feeling it could have been a 75-80. Comparing his historical AF to SC, it could have been a 65-70.
Maric, comparing his output to games last season, I think it could have been anywhere from 95 -110. Comparing his historical AF to SC, it could have been a 102 -107.
I think scariest thing about this ridiculously small sample size is, that Wood had his 2nd worst SC:AF in the last 2 seasons, and Maric clearly his worst! Obviously we are missing the most important piece of the puzzle, the Hitouts to Advantage numbers. Still, it really is an eye-opener. Against that, Mumford scored a 99 from 46%TOG in NAB2 against Essendon. It really might be a case of the best Rucks will score at about last years rate, but the suspect ones might struggle, unless they can gather 20 odd possessions!
Interesting indeed!

 

[Rowsus]

Looking at Marics score I thought he was worth more then the 82 to be fair. He wasn't electric by any means but that score seems low. Has to
Be the new scoring you'd think?

On that subject does anyone know where we can find hit out adv %s for the game?

I agree BR, and would love to know a reliable source for HOtA, too!

 

[Rowsus]

Howdy Rowsus,

Thoughts on Jack Macrae this year?

Thanks ole bud.

Howdy Juzzo,
He has me worried on 2 fronts.
Can he handle a tag?
Can he back up last seasons big jump in average?
Both those things make me think I'd rather Watch him.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus, kind of the answer I expected. I can see the role he played being undertaken by other players in other games. That said, he did look good last night and is going to be a quality player. What is the difference between him and DSwallow last year? Mid time? Age?

Sorry to hear about your dinner

The major differences between Swallow and Docherty are:
Swallow had an extra season or two of games under his belt. He now sits on 73, Docherty 31.
He was being positioned as a Mid from his early days, and was moving back there last season. Docherty has pretty much always been seen/cast in a Defensive role.
Swallow was playing in an inexperienced, but improving team. Docherty is playing in a very experienced and aging team, that is sliding backwards.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

I didn't want to specifically ask you a team question in this thread, but my mind has been running about the fact that I've got about $70k-$75k left in the bank, and was wondering if you think it worthwhile upgrading any of my cheaper premiums for a higher-priced, proven premium.

Without going through all of them, the ones that I'd be most interested in would be:

Dangerfield (M4) / Griffen (M5) in the MID
- Already have Ablett, Pendlebury & Selwood, would next be considering someone like JPK (but would just fall short by going from Griffen)

Stick with my structure (and some cash in the bank), or upgrade? Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

TBO, it was a considered decision/structure to start Danger over JPK, and that Cash might come in quite useful in the corrective trades we might all need to do early. I'd stick with what you have.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

With Young as an emergency its thrown my side into chaos
Have throwing around a few options and was wondering if you could please help me ....again.
I am thinking

Goddard and Kolodashni

Vs

Dalhaus and Harry Taylor

Vs

Lumumba and Buddy

Hey Slammer,
Yes, Young is the grit in my jocks today, too. Really giving me a pain in the..... . I was confident he'd get picked, now I am faced with choosing a player I really didn't want. All this after bringing Cripps in 10 minutes before Lock out!
I think the last one wins hands down. It's clearly the one that is most likely to give you 2 Keepers.

 

[Rowsus]

A few things I have been pondering re Docherty:

NAB is for rookies . He's now played well when it counts and showed he has the skills to return some quality numbers. There are not of challengers at Carlton from what I can see for his points this year for his role.

Furtermore a lot of people started with DSwallow last year and the longer you waited to get him the bigger the disadvantage and risk. All one did was neutralize him, previous points were lost. I hate the disadvantage of being a follower and not a leader with trades (albeit it does have risk). I don't have numbers but for the exercise DS may have been in 40 to 50% of teams at the start. I read somewhere that Doch is in less than 1% of teams .

Pre-season research indicated that Docherty was well worth serious consideration. Unlike with DS a window of opportunity exists to follow the gut with Doch and get the jump on a lot of other Supercoachers in the tough defensive line and maybe even free up some cash.

Risk vs reward and I wouldn't normally suggest thinking this way except that the Doch was already on the shortlist and may have just proven why. Sometimes he who hesitates loses and the early bird catches the worm.

Anyway just food for thought...or maybe just junk food. Sorry, thank-you.

Doesn't Walker play a very similar role? When is he due back?

Due back in 2 weeks

If he keeps up that sort of form he will almost certainly draw a tag. Teams can't have a player coming off H/B-Wing with 90% DE, without adding extra pressure to see if he can keep it up. As I stated in post #3814, it's a long bow to compare him with Swallow just yet.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus late night thoughts here but am I crazy getting in Hallahan? I have this feeling he's going to go bang tomorrow... New club first game for the season, will want to show somthing to keep his place. What do you reckon? Am I going crazy?

Hey brad182,
yes, you are crazy. You are thinking of throwing weeks of considered research out the window, because you have a gut feel about 1 good score. Even if he does go bang in Rnd 1, what do you expect of him going Fwd? Picking players for 1 games sake is very short sighted....... unless it's Rnd 23!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, love your insight and effort mate. My question revolves around my D1. J Kelly vs H Taylor. (XXX, Johnson, Newnes, Lumumba, Goodes, K-mac)

lmcjb, thanks for the kind words,
there's really not a lot between them. I expect Kelly might beat Taylor on average, but Taylor will beat Kelly on total points. Given Taylor is less likely to miss games, I will say Taylor.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Slammer,
Yes, Young is the grit in my jocks today, too. Really giving me a pain in the..... . I was confident he'd get picked, now I am faced with choosing a player I really didn't want. All this after bringing Cripps in 10 minutes before Lock out!
I think the last one wins hands down. It's clearly the one that is most likely to give you 2 Keepers.

Thanks mate
My only concern is the wet weather forecast for Sydney. Buddy may struggle but I guess you have to look at his output for the whole season , not just one game..eg Doherty

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks mate
My only concern is the wet weather forecast for Sydney. Buddy may struggle but I guess you have to look at his output for the whole season , not just one game..eg Doherty

Definitely! Picking teams for Round 1 will only lead to tears. When they're a Keeper, they're a Keeper.

 

[TeeButOne]

TBO, it was a considered decision/structure to start Danger over JPK, and that Cash might come in quite useful in the corrective trades we might all need to do early. I'd stick with what you have.

Thank you very much for your thoughts ... and yes, it backed up my initial thoughts too. Good luck.

 

[Blossoms]

All this after bringing Cripps in 10 minutes before Lock out!

Same here Rowsus. Cripps looks very slow and indecisive.