Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Juzzo]

Hi Juzzo,
once our teams are locked in, the most important step in trading (only if we need to!) in rnd 2 and rnd 3 is to make sure we have our Rookies right. So the question becomes, how poor are your Rookies? Do you need to replace 2, 4 or more? Remember, it is only 1 game so far, and it only takes one half decent game to turn a Rookies fortunes around. If you are sure you need to make 4 corrections, and I'd be pretty surprised if you do after 1 game, then grabbing 2 Rookies this week is the right course of action.
As to grabbing Rich, you need to ask yourself, where you highly interested in him, before his Round 1 score? His round 1 score disappears in 1 price change, so there is no great guarantee he will have risen significantly by Rnd 6 or 8. If you were very interested in him before, then yes maybe, if you weren't, you are letting one score, that you can't get, blind you. Hence the saying, chasing last weeks points.
If your Rookies aren't desperately bad, grab a Prem, and it gives you a chance to bring in vandenBerg this week, and have a look at your own, and the other Rookies, for another week, before deciding what to do.
Not that it's a great selling point, but I will be going Rockliff/Miller to Hannebery/Miller this week. I had Hannebery all pre-season, along with Heppell and Sidebottom most of the pre-season. Sidey's gone, I'm still weary of Essendon players, so Hannebery is an easy pick for me. vdB can score a 40 this week, and still have one of the best B/E's going into Round 3, so I am happy to correct Miller to him.

I'd be happy to just give them squeeze, let alone crush them this week!

Cheers buddy, my rookies are:
D: Oxley, Saad
M: CEY, Cripps, Anderson, Miller, Lambert, Adamson FD
R: Read
F: Clark, Salem, Lamb, Saad

Probably Trade Rocky for either forward prem or mid prem, and either watch rookies this week or trade Saad from forward line for Vandenberg, watched St Kilda game Saad was pretty much unsighted for the whole game. Maybe get Heeney week after, he looked comfortable in Sydney's team, hopefully he will avoid the vest.

Thanks again

 

[jarrad_]

i must say thanks so far for the hannebery tip

i know hardly anyone else would have got hannebery after your thread but i thought why the hell not go hannebery

and i was VERY happy with that choice saturday night gotta hope he continues the current form and doesnt get injured

 

[Johnsy44]

Cheers buddy, my rookies are:
D: Oxley, Saad
M: CEY, Cripps, Anderson, Miller, Lambert, Adamson FD
R: Read
F: Clark, Salem, Lamb, Saad

Probably Trade Rocky for either forward prem or mid prem, and either watch rookies this week or trade Saad from forward line for Vandenberg, watched St Kilda game Saad was pretty much unsighted for the whole game. Maybe get Heeney week after, he looked comfortable in Sydney's team, hopefully he will avoid the vest.

Thanks again

if i were you i would jump on mcintosh, heeney and VB they all scored great

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Maybe it's because the Hawks are so dominant that Lewis is benefiting from long periods of junk time.

If you watch our games, you would see that Jordan's rise has been a big reason as to why the hawks have been so dominant.

That might be a what came first, the chicken or the egg? type question. I'd really love to be able to nail down a good reason for Lewis' form. He certainly didn't show us anything like this in his first 200 games, and history tells me that makes this fleeting, rather than permanent.

 

[Rickwood]

Hi Rowsus,

should I buy the 2009 Red SSV without hard lid, because it is cheap (18k), but gives me some things that I want, or pay the 25% premium for the 2010 Series II Redline (with hard lid of course) with lower kms and most of the bells and whistles??

Surely SC advice can be readily translated into car purchase advice

 

[Steuby]

Hey Rowsus,

What are your thoughts on treloar? With Rockliff being injured im extremely tempted in putting Treloar into my side but some part in me feels like im just chasing his monster rd 1 score. Currently its just a toss up between Sloane and Treloar. Thanks

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, say you deliberately left 412k in the bank (as a sort of insurance policy in case the moneyball Leuey & TBC ruck combo goes pair shaped quickly) or for an early upgrade or 2 for 'must have' players, would you burn almost 400k to make 2 upgrades this week or just sit tight for 1 more week to get a better sighter?

I scored close to par 2042 last week with what I currently have, but was thinking of

Hamling> Hunt
&
Cripps > Bontempelli

this week

This is my current team before trades: 412k bank

Simpson, Shaw, Newnes, McIntosh, Oxley, Saad (Brown, Hamling)
Ablett, Pendles, Fyfe, Parker, Griffen, Cripps, Heeney, Vandenberg (CEY, Lang, Miller)
Leuey, TBC (Lucey)
Gray, Bartel, Martin, Swan, Salem, Clark (Lamb, Lambert)

Just feels weird sitting on so much $$$ it's burning a hole in my SC pocket

Hi Gingy,
it's an unusual approach, but obviously a considered one. I think having gone in with that "Insurance policy" you'd be crazy to change plans after 1 round. There's no guaranyee that Cripps is a dud, Bonts a gun, or Hunt will be any more than a 70/game player from here! You'd be losing your Insurance policy, and 2 trades from 1 Round of evidence.
You've already got Rnd 1's 4 highest scoring Rookies (McIntosh 120, vandenBerg 99, Heeney 96, Saad 89), you're missing number 5 (Hogan 79), but have the other 2 that scored over 70 (CEY 78, Clarke 78). So you've got 6 of the top 7 scoring Rookies already. Good start. Salem or Lamb could become Hogan next week, if Hogan performs, and one of the other 2 doesn't. That's my plan. There's still no guarantee that the reason you kept the money won't arise in the next week or two. Changing plans without good reason usually ends in regrets. One good score from a couple of players in Round 1 is not a good reason. Stick with your plan, for at least one more week.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Hi Rowsus,

should I buy the 2009 Red SSV without hard lid, because it is cheap (18k), but gives me some things that I want, or pay the 25% premium for the 2010 Series II Redline (with hard lid of course) with lower kms and most of the bells and whistles??

Surely SC advice can be readily translated into car purchase advice

Haha classic!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, not really SC related, but more how we approach SC and the decisions we make; as someone who spends a lot of time analysing and trying to reached conclusions based on facts and hypothesis backed up by stats, what is your thoughts on the "trust your gut" sayings that seem to creep into everyday SC parlance? It seems a mantra that is at odds at least the research one is meant to have done to come into as much an informed decision as possible. That a reaction or instinct is somehow greater than any analysis one does. "Your gut" is very hard to define statement as well doesn't really help either, especially in such a predictive field such as fantasy scoring, which as has been noted in the past, is very similar to finance, stock brokering etc.

I think what is better method, is to find out why you have to come to such a counter-conclusion to begin with. Is it because of X stat instead of Y stat? Is it because of Fact B instead of Fact A? Is it because you remember Player C doing something good that you can't remember ever seeing Player D do? Work out what's not cognitive bias and then compare and see if you come to the same conclusion.

Of course end of the day, it's not such a bad thing if your just have a preference for Player X instead of Player Y. If you're already at that stage then you have 50% chance of picking the right player anyway, which is good odds. But that realisation needs to be made.

Thoughts?

DJ,
I have 2 thoughts I'd add to "gut" thinking.
I believe in a lot of cases, but not every case, it is your sub-conscious using the knowledge that you have, to interpret the information in front of you. It's not always right, and it can sometimes be sourced from something you have actually remembered incorrectly. Call it intuition if you like, but it is something ringing a bell for you, from your vast array of memories of similar situations, or the same person or event. Sometimes you can check on it, and see if your memory/intuiton/gut was coming from a solid place, sometimes you just have to decide to go with it, or ignore it.
My 2nd thought is more specific to using it in things like SC, but can apply to punting etc. If you are operating in an area of limited resources - SC = Trades, Punting = Money, you need to take a "limited" approach to positive gut feels, and listen more to "negative" gut feels. Just like in punting, maybe set yourself a Trade budget at the start of the season. "I will use only 2 trades this season on "gut feel" risks" or something similar. There is a theory in life, that in the end you will regret more of the things you didn't do, than the things you did. Operating on "gut feel" in a limited resource, it is best to go with the opposite logic, as your finite resource can quickly become depleted, leaving you not enough of it to complete necessary things later on. Money gone on a "gut feel" punt, can't pay that unexpected bill. Trades gone on too many "gut feel" trades, can't replace that injured Prem in Rnd 17.
Listen more to that "gut feel" that tell you not to trade that player in, than the ones that tell you to trade that player in. Both can lead to disappointment, but one leads to disappointment and loss of a finite resource, the other just leads to disappontment, but still having resources for future happiness/success.

 

[Rowsus]

Cheers buddy, my rookies are:
D: Oxley, Saad
M: CEY, Cripps, Anderson, Miller, Lambert, Adamson FD
R: Read
F: Clark, Salem, Lamb, Saad

Probably Trade Rocky for either forward prem or mid prem, and either watch rookies this week or trade Saad from forward line for Vandenberg, watched St Kilda game Saad was pretty much unsighted for the whole game. Maybe get Heeney week after, he looked comfortable in Sydney's team, hopefully he will avoid the vest.

Thanks again

if i were you i would jump on mcintosh, heeney and VB they all scored great

You're missing 4 of the top 5 scoring Rookies from Rnd 1 - McIntosh, vandenBerg, Heeney and Hogan (you have Saad GC).

That being the case, I think you need to bring 2 of them in this week. If you can do it without chopping Rocky, in case you think that he might come back quicker, all the good. If you think you just need to chop Rocky anyway, that's ok too.

 

[Rowsus]

i must say thanks so far for the hannebery tip

i know hardly anyone else would have got hannebery after your thread but i thought why the hell not go hannebery

and i was VERY happy with that choice saturday night gotta hope he continues the current form and doesnt get injured

Happy to help, but beware the Rowsus curse, because I'm going Rocky --> Hannebery this week!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

should I buy the 2009 Red SSV without hard lid, because it is cheap (18k), but gives me some things that I want, or pay the 25% premium for the 2010 Series II Redline (with hard lid of course) with lower kms and most of the bells and whistles??

Surely SC advice can be readily translated into car purchase advice

Haha classic!

Hi Rickwood,
If the donk runs and sounds ok on the 2009, and it looks "clean", then don't pay the premium for the 2010. There will be a compression in the price difference when it comes to move it on anyway, so unless there is a reason people don't like the 2009 in general, that will affect it's resale price later, save your money where you can. It gives you $4,500 in your pocket now, and should only cost you about $1,500 later. I bet you can think of a few things to do with that $3,000 difference!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

What are your thoughts on treloar? With Rockliff being injured im extremely tempted in putting Treloar into my side but some part in me feels like im just chasing his monster rd 1 score. Currently its just a toss up between Sloane and Treloar. Thanks

Hey Steuby,
we really must train ourselves to block out Round 1 scores. You should have had an opinion of Treloar before Round 1, and it is very very dangerous to change opinions on the back of 1 game. You might have thought "I think Treloar will be a 108 player this season, and should have a handful of 130+ scores for the season". Okay, so he nailed one in Round 1. You might say, ok, I think he will have 6 now, not 5 130+ scores. It should still only change your opinion of his season by 1-2/game. Is that enough to put him in front of your pre-season Sloane opinion? I'd be surprised if it was, but if so, go Treloar, otherwise, stick with the order you had them in mind pre-season, and don't let a Round 1 score sway you.

 

[The Misfit]

Hey Steuby,
we really must train ourselves to block out Round 1 scores. You should have had an opinion of Treloar before Round 1, and it is very very dangerous to change opinions on the back of 1 game. You might have thought "I think Treloar will be a 108 player this season, and should have a handful of 130+ scores for the season". Okay, so he nailed one in Round 1. You might say, ok, I think he will have 6 now, not 5 130+ scores. It should still only change your opinion of his season by 1-2/game. Is that enough to put him in front of your pre-season Sloane opinion? I'd be surprised if it was, but if so, go Treloar, otherwise, stick with the order you had them in mind pre-season, and don't let a Round 1 score sway you.

Another thing to consider is how well Weller did tagging Griffen out of it, next week they might decide to tag Treloar instead, or worse share it around..

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus, do you see any bargains in the following odds for this week? (All at $1.87)
Bryce Gibbs over 103.5 $1.87 Under $1.87
Robbie Gray under 116.5 $1.87 Under $1.87
Swallow 97.5
Cotchin 107.5
Prestia 110.5
Mundy 111.5
Heppell 106.5
Personally, I think Mundy won't achieve 111.5, swallow will exceed 97.5, Gray won't achieve 116.5, Gibbs will exceed 103.5

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, do you see any bargains in the following odds for this week? (All at $1.87)
Bryce Gibbs over 103.5 $1.87 Under $1.87
Robbie Gray under 116.5 $1.87 Under $1.87
Swallow 97.5
Cotchin 107.5
Prestia 110.5
Mundy 111.5
Heppell 106.5
Personally, I think Mundy won't achieve 111.5, swallow will exceed 97.5, Gray won't achieve 116.5, Gibbs will exceed 103.5

The only ones I like are Mundy under 111.5, and Heppell over 106.5.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

If I do not go Rocky to Pendles because I would like to free up more cash.
Do you have any suggestions?
Was thinking JPK or Hannebery to go with my Fyfe,,Selwood and Gaz

 

[Juzzo]

You're missing 4 of the top 5 scoring Rookies from Rnd 1 - McIntosh, vandenBerg, Heeney and Hogan (you have Saad GC).

That being the case, I think you need to bring 2 of them in this week. If you can do it without chopping Rocky, in case you think that he might come back quicker, all the good. If you think you just need to chop Rocky anyway, that's ok too.

Sorry Row, I do have McIntosh and started him on the ground

 

[GoldenBoys]

Hi Rickwood,
If the donk runs and sounds ok on the 2009, and it looks "clean", then don't pay the premium for the 2010. There will be a compression in the price difference when it comes to move it on anyway, so unless there is a reason people don't like the 2009 in general, that will affect it's resale price later, save your money where you can. It gives you $4,500 in your pocket now, and should only cost you about $1,500 later. I bet you can think of a few things to do with that $3,000 difference!

LOL....love it! Perhaps you should consider becoming a "life coach" as your next profession Rowsus?!

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

With Rocky out do you think its best to straight swap him for Gaz?

I wasnt impressed by his game last week (even though he still scored well) having no tackles was what worried me most. Also he will cop the Mav Weller tag this week..and I think by the end of the year he will be the new Crowley. So I can see a below average score this week but if I am to get Gaz then only burning one necessary trade to get him seems like a win.

Thanks