Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, what are your thoughts on Daniel Wells?
I think Crouch in the midfield will score 10-15 points higher than Wells with 60k extra, but this is balanced by not being able to grab a quality MID rookie.

Which combination do you prefer?
Wells at F5+Mid Rookie+60k
Or
Crouch at M7+Forward Rookie

Hi Pro,
I generally don't like Stepping Stones, and think you should only pick one if you are happy with your team, and have enough Cash leftover to upgrade one of your rookies to one. Of the two options you have there, I would choose the Wells option. The Mid rookie in the equation is likely to do better than the Fwd Rookie, and the $60k is useful.

 

[Prochard]

Hi Pro,
I generally don't like Stepping Stones, and think you should only pick one if you are happy with your team, and have enough Cash leftover to upgrade one of your rookies to one. Of the two options you have there, I would choose the Wells option. The Mid rookie in the equation is likely to do better than the Fwd Rookie, and the $60k is useful.

So if I consider Deledio as a 112-115 premium forward.
Deledio+Rookie would be preferable compared to Wells+500-530k forward?

 

[thommus]

Sorry if you've already answered this mate but had a look and couldn't find what I was after.

After some analysis on Chad. How does he go without Monfris and wins/losses. Reckon there's any scope for improvement on his brilliant season last year? Cheers mate

 

[Gro0019]

Hi Rowsus, what are your thoughts on James Aish and Ryan Harwood as stepping stone defenders. Thinking they could have similar output to JMAC last year.

 

[Rowsus]

So if I consider Deledio as a 112-115 premium forward.
Deledio+Rookie would be preferable compared to Wells+500-530k forward?

If you consider Deledio a 112-115 Forward, he should nearly be one of the first players locked into your team, and the key thrown away.

 

[Rowsus]

Sorry if you've already answered this mate but had a look and couldn't find what I was after.

After some analysis on Chad. How does he go without Monfris and wins/losses. Reckon there's any scope for improvement on his brilliant season last year? Cheers mate

Here is what I posted about him back on the 20th Dec.

Chad Wingard

Season - 22 games at 97.8 (2014 21 games at 79.9)
Home - 12 games at 97.3 (Home wins 7 at 91.9, Home losses 5 at 104.8)
MCG - 1 games at 83.0 (MCG wins 0 at 0.0, MCG losses 1 at 83.0)
Etihad - 4 games at 95.5 (Etihad wins 3 at 101.3, Etihad losses 1 at 78.0)
Away - 5 games at 103.8 (Away wins 2 at 94.5, Away losses 3 at 110.0)
Wins - 12 games at 94.7
Losses - 10 games at 101.5

Of note...
After having 36 goals, and 32 clearances in 2014, Wingard increased those numbers to 53 goals and 54 clearances in 2015. Interestingly enough, most people would assume he gathered most of those clearances when Polec (Rnd 6 on) or Wines (Rnds 4-7, 19 on) went missing, which in theory lead to more on-ball time for Wingard, but not so. Using clearances as an indication of on ball time isn't totally out of order. Wingard averaged 2.45 Clearances/game. He averaged 2.67 when playing his 3 games with both Polec and Wines, 5 when playing with Polec without Wines (2 games), 2.3 when playing with Wines without Polec (10 games), and 1.86 when playing with neither (7 games)! Most of his good scores involved him kicking 3 or 4 goals in a game, a feat he achieved 10 times in 2015, including a 5 goal game that only returned 83! Interestingly enough, these 10 games came in an 11 game period within the season, and actually had a streak of 8 games in it. From Rounds 10 to 18 Wingard kicked 3 or more goals in each of those 8 games, and averaged 107 in that period. In his 62 H & A games prior to 2015, Wingard had only kicked 3+ goals in a game 11 times. I think he possibly ends up a near permanent small forward, if Polec and Wines are ok. Don't forget, when Wingard averaged near 100 in 2013, Polec wasn't there, Gray wasn't at the peak of his powers, and Wines was a first year player. I think Wingard faces an uphill battle to repeat his 2015, in 2016.

As to the Monfries factor, Monfries played every game in 2013 so there is nothing to compare there, 14 games in 2014 but his Round 23 game was only 24% TOG, and 19 games in 2015, with his Round 1 game being only 23% TOG.

Wingard 2014: 21 games at 79.9. (They both missed Round 4)
When Monfries played 49% or more TOG, Wingard was 13/83.2, when Monfries missed or played less than 25% TOG, Wingard was 8/74.6 (This includes a 59% TOG red vested SC 10 point game in round 11!)

Wingard 2015: 22 games at 97.8
When Monfries played 58% or more TOG, Wingard was 18/99.6, when Monfries missed or played less than 25% TOG, Wingard was 4/89.8

It would appear that Monfries has no affect whatsoever on Wingard.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, what are your thoughts on James Aish and Ryan Harwood as stepping stone defenders. Thinking they could have similar output to JMAC last year.

Hi Gro, welcome aboard
Aish is priced at $275,700 and Harwood at $283,300. Last season JMac went 14/88.7, and therein lies the problem! It's not really a great Keeper score for your D6, and they are likely to only make around $100-$120k if/when you trade them out. I would probably want to be of the opinion they'd get into the low 90's before I started them, and at the moment I'm not confident of either doing that. I'd prefer to start a Def Rookie, and upgrade somewhere else with the extra dollars.

 

[donnybuang]

First post here Rowsus, I've read a fair bit here and don't think it's been covered. Like yourself, I'm living in Europe. How do you go about loopholing captains and FDs? The time differences killed me last year?

 

[Rowsus]

First post here Rowsus, I've read a fair bit here and don't think it's been covered. Like yourself, I'm living in Europe. How do you go about loopholing captains and FDs? The time differences killed me last year?

Hi donnybuang, welcome aboard
I assume you are refering to how do I do it with the time difference, not the actual mechanics of it. In Denmark we are currently 10 hours behind Melbourne, and during the AFL season we are 8 Hours behind Melbourne. This generally means if I want to check late outs (or subs in previous seasons) I have to get up about 5am. While my team is doing ok I tend to do it religiously, as I fall behind, sometimes I just say "blow it!", and sleep in until 7am, and get up and watch the second half of one of the Saturday afternoon games. Similarly on Sundays. As you said, it is a killer sometimes. Sometimes I went back to bed, sometimes I just stayed up, and watched the games.

 

[donnybuang]

Hi donnybuang, welcome aboard
I assume you are refering to how do I do it with the time difference, not the actual mechanics of it. In Denmark we are currently 10 hours behind Melbourne, and during the AFL season we are 8 Hours behind Melbourne. This generally means if I want to check late outs (or subs in previous seasons) I have to get up about 5am. While my team is doing ok I tend to do it religiously, as I fall behind, sometimes I just say "blow it!", and sleep in until 7am, and get up and watch the second half of one of the Saturday afternoon games. Similarly on Sundays. As you said, it is a killer sometimes. Sometimes I went back to bed, sometimes I just stayed up, and watched the games.

Thanks, pretty much the same as me, just got worse and worse as the season went on and my interest dropped off. All the best for the season ahead. Love your work BTW.

 

[chels]

Hi donnybuang, welcome aboard
I assume you are refering to how do I do it with the time difference, not the actual mechanics of it. In Denmark we are currently 10 hours behind Melbourne, and during the AFL season we are 8 Hours behind Melbourne. This generally means if I want to check late outs (or subs in previous seasons) I have to get up about 5am. While my team is doing ok I tend to do it religiously, as I fall behind, sometimes I just say "blow it!", and sleep in until 7am, and get up and watch the second half of one of the Saturday afternoon games. Similarly on Sundays. As you said, it is a killer sometimes. Sometimes I went back to bed, sometimes I just stayed up, and watched the games.

Even the two hour time gap across the ditch is inconvenient. And then there is the problem of not being resident in Australia suggests we are not eligible to win any prizes.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks, pretty much the same as me, just got worse and worse as the season went on and my interest dropped off. All the best for the season ahead. Love your work BTW.

Thanks for that.

Even the two hour time gap across the ditch is inconvenient. And then there is the problem of not being resident in Australia suggests we are not eligible to win any prizes.

It's funny, isn't it? A few years ago, within the promotional material, within the SC site itself, it said something like "If you are overseas, why not make a League amongst your friends, and have a chance at the big Cash prizes.". But then the T&C say you can't win if you are overseas
I haven't checked if that is still there in the promotional garb, but I always thought it would be a little leveredge point, if you ever won, and tried to sue them for the prizemoney.

 

[GoGeta]

The 75 in those assumed scores is probably the main thing which kills Goldys price. If that 75 becomes a 100+ then watch out

Actually that 75 has been like 50's the last 1 or 2 times Goldy played Freo/Sandilands.....

 

[chels]

Thanks for that.



It's funny, isn't it? A few years ago, within the promotional material, within the SC site itself, it said something like "If you are overseas, why not make a League amongst your friends, and have a chance at the big Cash prizes.". But then the T&C say you can't win if you are overseas
I haven't checked if that is still there in the promotional garb, but I always thought it would be a little leveredge point, if you ever won, and tried to sue them for the prizemoney.

For me Rowsus the real problem is perfectly encapsulated in what is probably a throw away line "if you ever won." I can dream but do not really see that happening!

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Hello Rowsus.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on Christian Salem and Jack Billings this year?

Do you think either of them can average enough to be keepers in their respective positions?

Thanks mate.

 

[IDIG]

Only just noticed but this thread is now 266 pages and 5315 posts long

Phenomenal work Rowsus.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

I saw you had Tippett in your forward line and I am thinking of going the same way this year to have some ruck cover. I have two questions for this..

1 - who is the best bench player to have? I currently had Max King from Melbourne

2 - by the looks of things Sam Grimley may be getting a game at Essendon. Do you think this negates the purpose of having Tippett there for ruck cover? If one of my rucks misses and Grimley is there on the bench anyway then Tippett wouldnt be used in that role and those 2-3pts per game over the year wouldnt be added to his score..meaning he could still likely just be a 88-92pt player.

Thanks mate!

 

[Rowsus]

Hello Rowsus.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on Christian Salem and Jack Billings this year?

Do you think either of them can average enough to be keepers in their respective positions?

Thanks mate.

Hi BB,
Salem was 12/74.0 with a TOG of 79% in 2015 (priced at $399,300). If he can stay fit, I can see him pushing his TOG up to around 88% in 2016. On a pure TOG improvement, that pushes his SC average up to 82.4, and any player improvement pushes it higher. Given he is a third year player, with only 22 games under his belt, I don't think it is unreasonable to think he has a fair bit of improvement in him. I do have two concerns though. Firstly he injured both hamstrings last season. He was doing well in his rehab with the first injury, and then injured his "good" hamstring. That should ring alarm bells, and definitely adds to the risk factor. Secondly, opposition Clubs are really good at identifying the halfbacks that are good users of the ball. They do what they can to shut them down, and force the ball into other players hands. Even with only 22 games under his belt, I can see Salem getting some of this attention in a few/lot of games in 2016. It will probably translate into a number of 60's and 70's in his season's scores, and at his price you want him to average low 90's. I think he's high risk, given his inexperience, price, and the potential injury risk. I'd be looking for someone safer.
Billings was 9/84.3 with a TOG of 85% in 2015 (priced at $445,100). With only 25 games in his two seasons, he too has plenty of natural improvement to come, but he won't get much/any TOG % improvement. Another with injury problems last season. He developed a "hotspot" in his shin, that became a stress fracture. That's more of a "growing pains" type injury, and I would think is of lesser concern than Salem's hamstrings. What is of concern is, he was mainly playing small Forward in 2015, and as we know, small Forwards are SC poison! My other concern with him is, he had that one freak game last season, where St Kilda came from a mile back and beat the Bulldogs. St Kilda were down 10.4 to 2.3 at half time, and stormed back from halfway through the 3rd quarter to win 13.9 to 14.10. Billings kicked 4 goals in the comeback, 3 in pretty quick order, and scored 143 points from a 15 possession game. Goals in a comeback victory can be SC gold, but Billings other 8 games were evenly spread between 54 & 98 and averaged 77. It would seem you are paying a premium for the role he played in that freak win. It's something unlikely to be repeated, and with no TOG improvement to come, it's a little hard to see how he will lift himself to the mid 90's, unless he gets a major role change into the Midfield. I'm comfortable he will play his share of Mid time in 2016, I'm just not comfortable it will be enough. At his price he has to be a Keeper, or he should be considered a bad pick, and it really just looks too risky to me.

 

[Rowsus]

Only just noticed but this thread is now 266 pages and 5315 posts long

Phenomenal work Rowsus.

Thanks IDIG.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,

I saw you had Tippett in your forward line and I am thinking of going the same way this year to have some ruck cover. I have two questions for this..

1 - who is the best bench player to have? I currently had Max King from Melbourne

2 - by the looks of things Sam Grimley may be getting a game at Essendon. Do you think this negates the purpose of having Tippett there for ruck cover? If one of my rucks misses and Grimley is there on the bench anyway then Tippett wouldnt be used in that role and those 2-3pts per game over the year wouldnt be added to his score..meaning he could still likely just be a 88-92pt player.

Thanks mate!

Hey Mike, welcome back.

1 - I am running with Max King too. From a season long point of view, Melbourne would seem to offer the best R/F loophole link. I'm of the opinion that Max is more likely to get a game than Mitch, and while both are very unlikely, it just seems logical to pick the one that is more likely to get a game, just in case.

2 - I am considering running both Tippett and Grimley. The thing to keep in mind is, that Tippett is being viewed as a season long selection, and Grimley as a temporary Cash Cow. While Ruck problems can strike at anytime, the further we get into the season, the more likely they are to strike. Grimley is a good chance to be gone from your team, when you need a R/F for cover!