Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Well, he's currently sitting R2 in my team, but if he is picked in Round 1, I think everybody should seriously consider him for at least R3. I will add a couple of sub clauses there:
That doesn't apply to teams that are setting up Ruck coverage through a R3/F4-6 link.
It also doesn't apply to teams that are nailing there Captain's loophole to a non-playing R3.
I think if Currie is playing he will score a minimum of 65-70, and possibly even average as high as 80. This means he can give us anywhere from $160k-$230k in growth. Given we have concerns with our Cash generation this season, it would seem crazy to pass up a Rookie that might well ean us $180k!

All subject to selection, of course. The interesting twist is, it is quite conceivable GC don't pick him this week, as Essendon don't present a Rucking strength problem to be countered, but then GC do select Currie in Round 2 against Freo/Sandilands!
I've done a fair bit of thinking about Currie the last few days and I must say I'm warming to him at R3. D8 seems to once again be a very weak rookie slot this year so common sense is leading me to take my F/D there and take the perceived ruck cover and higher quality rookie in Currie. Nicholls being as unreliable as he is was probably the tipping point.
 
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Hey Rowsus,

Just keen to see what u think of two players.
Firstly, Buddy. Can he get back to his best? He seems underpriced but I wasn't a fan of his up and down scores in the past. It used to frustrate me that he one week he goes big then the next he does nothing.

Secondly, Kreuzer in the Ruck. Has finally had a good pre- season and averaged 89 last year with no pre-season. Can he step it up an average over 100? Was thinking of not starting with Goldy and using Kreuzer as stepping stone to him.
 
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Hey rowsus,
i've seen you mention a ruck combo of currie/grimley/martin, im assuming you are looking at a 'get goldy' operation around round 6?
I've had numerous iterations with a martin & smith/nicholls and a wells type player, with eg a single downgrade to petracca from wells and increased value in smith/nicholls to get goldy when (if) hes dropped in value with a simple 2 trades.
interested in what your plan of attack is, if you'd be willing to share- that is of course operation 'get goldy' is your actual plan at all!
 

Rowsus

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Sometimes Rowsus when I read your posts the little fella in the back of my head says 'here is another example of your ability to "cast pearls before swine."' I respect your opinions and thank you for making me think about SC from a perspective I may well never have considered.

Some here seem to lose sight of the point that your opinions are just that - opinions. I don't always agree with them; so why do I value them so highly? Because you provide analysis and data to support them. That is what I look for at SCS rather than yet another unsupported opinion / statement. Perhaps that is why this thread has hit 281 pages?
Thanks chels. If I can provoke thought, even if it is thought on a tangent to where I was going, I'd much rather do that, than give direct "Don't get Jones, put Smith in your team instead" type advice. :D
 

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How can we go by aggregate when we don't know how many games a player will play, other than guessing with Bartel, Boyd types?
As I see it we can only go by average when picking players.
If you pick a player on aggregate who has a lower average than a player with a higher average and lower aggregate and that player goes down for a few rounds, then you end up with a lower aggregate and lower average player.
Players with histories of injuries, rests and suspensions are targets. Everybody picking Franklin is factoring in his missed games in the second half on the season and has (or should have) a plan to counter this scenario. Dusty Martin on the other hand has missed 4 games in six years, so he is one who you'd consider at a lower average but with a better chance of being at the top of the aggregate.
I agree with KLo30. Some players you just have to go in with a reduced game count expectation, due to their history. If they outstrip it, all well and good, but if they have played 16 - 19 games in each of the last 7 seasons, it would seem folly to plan/expect 22 this season.
 

Rowsus

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Great statement chels, I agree that this thread is one of the jewels of SCS.

There's enough wisdoms and insights from Rowsus in this thread alone to write a whole book on it.
It might make for a very thin book!

Thanks THCLT, high praise indeed, from you and chels. :D
 

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Fair enough I suppose.

Do we know for sure that Buddy will definitely, 100% miss games later in the season?
Heath Shaw for example played all games last year, but before that had a history of missing 3, 4, 5 games a year for a number of reasons.
I know looking at history gives us a guide to what players might do in the future.
For me, I look at average and if they are fit and had a good pre season and playing same or similar role in their team, I'll probably pick them regardless of assumption of missing games for whatever reason.

:cool:
It's still ok to pick players like Buddy, even if there is an expectation thet will miss games late. If you go in with realistic expectations, and they fit your needs, then go for it. Just don't be one of those Coaches that curses when Buddy misses 2 or 3 games in the last 6 of the season. That should have been built into your expectations.

If you look over Rowsus' recent posts on Franklin, statistically he misses more games in the second half of the season compared with the first half. You can never know for sure when/if a player will miss games, but when any player has missed games consistently for 3, 4 5+ seasons in a row, it should be in your thought process to consider their PIT average as well as their standard average. Shaw playing all 22 games last season could/should be considered an outlier, since he had missed games for the 7 previous seasons. I think with the lack of rookies and under performing rookies (compared to previous seasons), their PIT averages may take a slightly larger hit than usual.

Looking at last season, Fyfe's PIT70 average brought him back to the field.

2237 points from 18 games + 280 (70*4) = 2517 which is an average of 114.4 for the season.

Pendlebury - 2557 from 22 games
Hannebery - 2519 from 22 games.
Dangerfield - 2518 from 21 games (1 game was cancelled)
Well explained, and good examples, anfa18. Have some rep :)
 

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I hope you're well rested up Rowsus as I feel the herd is about to descend and take over this thread VERY SOON...
I can hear the hooves thundering from over the hill.

I'm not sure whether to pack up and run, or find a rock to hide under!
 

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Hi mate
What's your stance on rookie ruck coverage? What's the value of having a floating donut compared to having ruck coverage in the form of say Grimley/Chol. Any theories or analysis would be very much appreciated you wise man.
You might like to have a look at post #5555 in this thread while awaiting an answer.
Hi thommus, thanks chels. :)
it's certainly a topic I've covered a number of times.
I'm not sure Chol is the answer. Will score 40 and 50's like Grimley, and while Grimley won't play every game, I think Chol will play even less.
 

Rowsus

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I've done a fair bit of thinking about Currie the last few days and I must say I'm warming to him at R3. D8 seems to once again be a very weak rookie slot this year so common sense is leading me to take my F/D there and take the perceived ruck cover and higher quality rookie in Currie. Nicholls being as unreliable as he is was probably the tipping point.
Certainly Nicholls frailty is the icing on the Currie cake.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,

Just keen to see what u think of two players.
Firstly, Buddy. Can he get back to his best? He seems underpriced but I wasn't a fan of his up and down scores in the past. It used to frustrate me that he one week he goes big then the next he does nothing.

Secondly, Kreuzer in the Ruck. Has finally had a good pre- season and averaged 89 last year with no pre-season. Can he step it up an average over 100? Was thinking of not starting with Goldy and using Kreuzer as stepping stone to him.
I doubt Buddy can get back to his 110+ type averages best, but I am confident he can be a good pick, if you are prepared to ride the ups and downs.
Kreuz is Kreuz. I can see him averaging Mid to high 90's if he gets through 20+ games. The only way I can see him going 100+ is, if gets off to a flyer, then gets injured...... again. :p
 

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Hey rowsus,
i've seen you mention a ruck combo of currie/grimley/martin, im assuming you are looking at a 'get goldy' operation around round 6?
I've had numerous iterations with a martin & smith/nicholls and a wells type player, with eg a single downgrade to petracca from wells and increased value in smith/nicholls to get goldy when (if) hes dropped in value with a simple 2 trades.
interested in what your plan of attack is, if you'd be willing to share- that is of course operation 'get goldy' is your actual plan at all!
Hi bianchije,
I'd love to get Goldy coming into that golden run he has at Rnds 6 - 9 (WB, Stk, Ess, Carl), but if I can't, I can't. Currie doesn't have to be part of that equation. If he's not mooing when it's time for me to get Goldy, then Currie just moves to R3. I don't have a schedule as such, to get Goldy. A lot depends on how his price is looking. That's one of the beauties of having a DPP on that line. I don't have to use someone from that line to get Goldy!
 
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Just had great yum cha with heaps of alcohol - if you are coming to Auckland pm me and we can celebrate.

Thus emboldened can I hijack the thread for a minute and mention how disappointed I am by members who ask a question, get a response, and then cannot be arsed to thank the responder(s).

Back to you Rowsus - the floor is yours. Next question.
 

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I am a person with medium sized kahoonas, but I would need giant ones to take Currie at R2.
I'm doing it! (waiting for team news of course)... currently on Goldstein Currie Grimley

If Currie averages as much as an average mid rookie (like Gresham?) and has solid job security (better than Gresham?) i feel I can use that $ to strengthen other areas of my field. It then allows me time to see which premium ruck I should grab (Gawn, Nic Nat, Martin) - at this stage I have some doubts which one of these is best.

Risky? Perhaps, but there's risk in many selctions
 

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Thus emboldened can I hijack the thread for a minute and mention how disappointed I am by members who ask a question, get a response, and then cannot be arsed to thank the responder(s).
Some may PM or Rep a post as a way of saying thankyou, but yes I do sometimes notice over the whole website people can forget to acknowledge a response to their questions.

Just on that, an alternate quick and easy way to thank and acknowledge any responder is to like the post, by clicking on on the thumbs up button.
 
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I'm doing it! (waiting for team news of course)... currently on Goldstein Currie Grimley

If Currie averages as much as an average mid rookie (like Gresham?) and has solid job security (better than Gresham?) i feel I can use that $ to strengthen other areas of my field. It then allows me time to see which premium ruck I should grab (Gawn, Nic Nat, Martin) - at this stage I have some doubts which one of these is best.

Risky? Perhaps, but there's risk in many selctions
I have lost it as I have now put Currie at R2 and Grimley at R3. And I have $220k left over. There is a very fine line between madness and genius. Barring any good $150k+ rookies coming out of the blocks, I will keep the founds to upgrade Currie to the best ruckman (behind Goldy)
 
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Hey Rowsus; hopefully it won't come to this, but what would you suggest if one had to choose between the two following options.

Player A from Team B is out for a game or two. Rookie X, with low perceived job security, has come into the team to replace him. It is the general consensus that when Player A returns, Rookie X will be dropped again.

Rookie Y, with medium-high perceived job security, has not been selected, but the general consensus is that he is very close to getting a decent run of games.

Who do you pick?
 
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Hey Row,

This will probably be that last "keeper" move I make for my team and would love your advice on it.

Tossing up between:

Fyfe and Hurn (saving a bit of coin too) vs Pendles and Simpson

Sway me ;)
 
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