Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Can you name a few players who started their careers injury prone and had low game count despite being clear best 22, but as their careers progressed they significantly improved in durability?

This is for Adams

Thanks

I know Cotchin struggled with soft-tissue injuries early in his career. Played 15, 10 and 17 games in his first 3 seasons. Since then, he has played 22, 22, 22, 22, 21 and 20 games.

I'll let you decide which ones best fit your description. The numbers after their name are their game counts, listed as first season to last.
Armitage - 3, 11, 3, 9, 21, 21, 21, 15, 21, 22
Curnow - 12, 18, 19, 15, 22, 21
Gray - 5, 9, 20, 11, 21, 2, 18, 22, 21, 19
Malceski - 5, 14, 22, 9, 12, 22, 12, 19, 22, 22, 16, 18
Martin S - 8, 19, 2, 20, 7, 5, 12, 20, 20
Walker T - 14, 18, 13, 16, 5, 15, 21, 21

 

[Prochard]

I'll let you decide which ones best fit your description. The numbers after their name are their game counts, listed as first season to last.
Armitage - 3, 11, 3, 9, 21, 21, 21, 15, 21, 22
Curnow - 12, 18, 19, 15, 22, 21
Gray - 5, 9, 20, 11, 21, 2, 18, 22, 21, 19
Malceski - 5, 14, 22, 9, 12, 22, 12, 19, 22, 22, 16, 18
Martin S - 8, 19, 2, 20, 7, 5, 12, 20, 20
Walker T - 14, 18, 13, 16, 5, 15, 21, 21

Yes this is somewhat reassuring thanks Rowsus as always.

 

[Rowsus]

i saw on rodney eades q&a that he said that steven may could be played in a more attacking role this season whats your view?

also with the suns expected to improve this year it might be bad for may as the ball wont be down there as much

coming into his 7th season, with game counts of: 9, 8, 17, 19, 18, 17 and high season of 86.8 (2016). When he was announced as a D/F DPP (2013) people were falling over themselves in the pre-season to get him in their teams. If he is going to be SC relevant, apart from a potential spike season, this would seem his last chance. I just think the game count and scoring history make him a big NO, especially at his price.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus and all,

I was wondering what your opinion on Fyfe is for the season, seeing his incredibly high ownership already. (Herald Sun is quoting 50%). Is there any merit in the "Buddy effect" applying to Fyfe with his popularity? It would be interesting to get a comparison with others like T.Mitchell, Heppell and Bont. Obviously great scoring potential but limited by injuries.

Cheers,

DK.

Hi Daniel, welcome aboard.
Keep in mind it's not fully a "Buddy Effect" situation with Fyfe. A large part of the "Buddy Effect" was the speculation as to how overpriced he was, and the value in waiting for him to drop in price. At $573,500 Fyfe doesn't quite present exactly the same scenario.
I have a little test I like to do with popular players. I assign them a probability of being a successful pick, just based on my own research, gut feel etc. If that probability is lower than their ownership %, I pass on them and look elsewhere. At 56% he's closing in on my number! I rate him around a 60-65% chance of proving to be a good pick.
I know many here work the opposite way, and say you can't afford to be without the popular player. Pack mentality is not good in game theory. Sink or Swim together doesn't really work, but neither does being different just for the sake of it.
In the unlikely event that Fyfe's ownership starts getting up in the high 60's, I will reconsider him, otherwise, fitness and JLT pending, he's locked in my side.
Roughie is an example of one I will probably avoid under this rule. At $367,100 he's too expensive to be a Stepping Stone, as he has to score at close enough to Keeper level to generate enough cash to be a successful pick. His ownership is currently 33.5%, and I only rate him about a 25-30% chance of being a good pick. Keep in mind, that's a season long decision. Those that start him can't call him a good pick if averages 93 playing 14 out of 16 games, and then goes missing.

 

[Bomber18]

That's a much easier one! A 3 point differential for $67,900. Take the money and run, if you think Grundy will score within 3 points of Goldy!
Even if you don't use the money until Round 7, it "works" for you for 16 Rounds, and has to make up 3 x 22 = 66 points.
66 / 16 Rounds = 4.1 points/Round. You'd realistically expect that $68k to bring in more like 10 points/round.

This comment has seemingly become a lot more relevant in 24 hours!

 

[TommyGobbler]

Hi Rowsus,

Firstly, thanks for all the valuable insight you've added here.

My question,
Do you have any stats on how players score the year they move to a new club?
Treloar & Danger both had career Years last year at new clubs, so I'm wondering if this is a trend or just a coincidence.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Firstly, thanks for all the valuable insight you've added here.

My question,
Do you have any stats on how players score the year they move to a new club?
Treloar & Danger both had career Years last year at new clubs, so I'm wondering if this is a trend or just a coincidence.

Hi Tommy, welcome aboard
I think you can't just look at the numbers below as a whole, I think each case you need to look at why they shifted clubs, and the circumstances they were shifting from and to. I can tell you the average of the players listed below is 87.9 the last year at their old club, and 87.0 the first year at their new club.
I'm a believer that a leopard doesn't change its' spots. Players don't suddenly become better or worse players, just because they changed Clubs. Certainly roles can change, but I can't think of too many occassions, where an established non-SC relevant player became relevant with a change of clubs. Remember, I'm talking about established players there, not young(er) players already on the rise.

Anyway, here is the SC career of 37 players that changed clubs, sorted by age. I hope it helps.
* I haven't double checked these, so there might be an error here or there.

 

[MC's Mix]

G'day Row,

I've got a question that I don't think has been asked/answered as yet:

I feel like Grundy and Stef Martin will both improve their figures this year, whilst Goldy and Gawn will regress. Am I crazy in starting BOTH Martin and Grundy, or should I play safe and select one to be paired with a Gawn for example. What numbers would make the punt worthwhile is sort of what I'm getting at I guess.

FWIW, I think they will roughly average:
Goldy: 106/20 - Due to previous comments about changing/reducing his role to allow younger players (Daw) to develop for the long-term benefit of the team.
Gawn: 112/18 - He's only had the one full season, with history against him replicating his hefty scores. Will likely be up there in average though.
Grundy: 105/21 - With Witts gone he's the clear #1, he's young and obviously developing nicely, increasing his output & scoring each year. Entering that 60-80 game mark where young players tend to have established a decent fitness level etc, though I acknowledge rucks tend to mature far more slowly (Big, bulkier rucks? Perhaps not so much the more agile ones? NicNat averaged 113 in his 4th season...alongside Cox!)
Martin: 108/19 - With West gone and his knee repaired, Martin's fantasy role 'should' return to what it was. The risk is Archie Martin stepping straight into West's role, though I can't see him being quite so bad! With a few guns hopefully returning to the midfield they surely can't be any worse, and his HOTA should also rise?

What do you think, am I trying too hard to convince myself and save a few dollars, or could I be onto something?

 

[bomberboy]

G'day Row,

I've got a question that I don't think has been asked/answered as yet:

I feel like Grundy and Stef Martin will both improve their figures this year, whilst Goldy and Gawn will regress. Am I crazy in starting BOTH Martin and Grundy, or should I play safe and select one to be paired with a Gawn for example. What numbers would make the punt worthwhile is sort of what I'm getting at I guess.

FWIW, I think they will roughly average:
Goldy: 106/20 - Due to previous comments about changing/reducing his role to allow younger players (Daw) to develop for the long-term benefit of the team.
Gawn: 112/18 - He's only had the one full season, with history against him replicating his hefty scores. Will likely be up there in average though.
Grundy: 105/21 - With Witts gone he's the clear #1, he's young and obviously developing nicely, increasing his output & scoring each year. Entering that 60-80 game mark where young players tend to have established a decent fitness level etc, though I acknowledge rucks tend to mature far more slowly (Big, bulkier rucks? Perhaps not so much the more agile ones? NicNat averaged 113 in his 4th season...alongside Cox!)
Martin: 108/19 - With West gone and his knee repaired, Martin's fantasy role 'should' return to what it was. The risk is Archie Martin stepping straight into West's role, though I can't see him being quite so bad! With a few guns hopefully returning to the midfield they surely can't be any worse, and his HOTA should also rise?

What do you think, am I trying too hard to convince myself and save a few dollars, or could I be onto something?

As I found out today, Gawn is durable, he was in the VFL prior to 2015. Just keep that in mind.

 

[MC's Mix]

Cheers for the response mate, I was aware that he had played VFL mostly prior to the last year and a half, and I could perhaps adjust the game expectation, though to be fair - the rigours of AFL would have to be more arduous than those of the VFL I'd imagine; distance covered etc.

 

[Darkie]

Hi Tommy, welcome aboard
I think you can't just look at the numbers below as a whole, I think each case you need to look at why they shifted clubs, and the circumstances they were shifting from and to. I can tell you the average of the players listed below is 87.9 the last year at their old club, and 87.0 the first year at their new club.
I'm a believer that a leopard doesn't change its' spots. Players don't suddenly become better or worse players, just because they changed Clubs. Certainly roles can change, but I can't think of too many occassions, where an established non-SC relevant player became relevant with a change of clubs. Remember, I'm talking about established players there, not young(er) players already on the rise.

Anyway, here is the SC career of 37 players that changed clubs, sorted by age. I hope it helps.
* I haven't double checked these, so there might be an error here or there.

I used to largely build my team around players that had switched clubs ... how wrong I was!!

 

[bomberboy]

I used to largely build my team around players that had switched clubs ... how wrong I was!!

I once picked Ash McGrath in dream team so we've all been there!

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Row,

I've got a question that I don't think has been asked/answered as yet:

I feel like Grundy and Stef Martin will both improve their figures this year, whilst Goldy and Gawn will regress. Am I crazy in starting BOTH Martin and Grundy, or should I play safe and select one to be paired with a Gawn for example. What numbers would make the punt worthwhile is sort of what I'm getting at I guess.

FWIW, I think they will roughly average:
Goldy: 106/20 - Due to previous comments about changing/reducing his role to allow younger players (Daw) to develop for the long-term benefit of the team.
Gawn: 112/18 - He's only had the one full season, with history against him replicating his hefty scores. Will likely be up there in average though.
Grundy: 105/21 - With Witts gone he's the clear #1, he's young and obviously developing nicely, increasing his output & scoring each year. Entering that 60-80 game mark where young players tend to have established a decent fitness level etc, though I acknowledge rucks tend to mature far more slowly (Big, bulkier rucks? Perhaps not so much the more agile ones? NicNat averaged 113 in his 4th season...alongside Cox!)
Martin: 108/19 - With West gone and his knee repaired, Martin's fantasy role 'should' return to what it was. The risk is Archie Martin stepping straight into West's role, though I can't see him being quite so bad! With a few guns hopefully returning to the midfield they surely can't be any worse, and his HOTA should also rise?

What do you think, am I trying too hard to convince myself and save a few dollars, or could I be onto something?

As I found out today, Gawn is durable, he was in the VFL prior to 2015. Just keep that in mind.

Cheers for the response mate, I was aware that he had played VFL mostly prior to the last year and a half, and I could perhaps adjust the game expectation, though to be fair - the rigours of AFL would have to be more arduous than those of the VFL I'd imagine; distance covered etc.

G'day MC's M,
let's assume your figures are correct.
Gawnstein $1,233,400 - 19/217.6 - 4,136 + any cover available
Gruntin $1,008,500 - 20/212.8 - 4,257 + any cover available
So Gruntin beats Gawnstein by 121 points, and costs $224,900 less!

If you really think your figures are close to what happens, it would seem you'd be crazy not to go Gruntin!!!

There's nothing wrong with using this sort of method, and backing your opinion. On my own opinion, I think you have 3 of them well within their range, but I am not so bullish about Martin. I see him more like high 90's.

 

[MC's Mix]

Cheers for the excellent response mate, I'll be keeping a close eye on Martin's role over the pre-season before taking the plunge, but I'm feeling good about him!

 

[doc ron]

Didn't Shaun Burgoyne have injury issues early in his career?

 

[Rowsus]

Didn't Shaun Burgoyne have injury issues early in his career?

Burgoyne S played 157 games at Port starting in 2002, and has played 162 games at Hawthorn, starting in 2010.
His game counts from his first season are: 17, 25, 25, 15, 22, 25, 19, 9, 16, 24, 24, 23, 25, 26, 24

.... I wonder if he holds the record for most consecutive 23+ game seasons?!

.... also, a career 9 time 23+ games, I wonder who holds that record?



Michael Tuck: 10 career, 5 consecutive
Brent Harvey: 9 career, 3 consecutive
Jimmy Bartel: 8 career, 5 consecutive
Adam Goodes: 8 career, 5 consecutive
Simon Madden: 7 career, 3 consecutive
Corey Enright: 6 career, 5 consecutive
Kevin Bartlett: 6 career, 1 consecutive

 

[PC]

Michael Tuck, what a superstar

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus how do you figure out the week by week players?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus how do you figure out the week by week players?

Hey Pro, I might be a bit thick at the moment, but I'm not sure what you mean by "the week by week players".

 

[Prochard]

Hey Pro, I might be a bit thick at the moment, but I'm not sure what you mean by "the week by week players".

Sorry doing my business finance hw :|

I meant the price of players week by week. So if a player is worth $300,000 scores 70,75,80 consecutively, what is his price at the end of the 3rd round?

Looking for a formula so I don't need to bother you every time.