Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, to what extent do you think JLT matches should be ignored? From what I've seen from most games, the teams seem to be playing at a pretty high intensity and almost close to the real thing. I think there's a bit of sentiment around here which suggests for the most part to take pre-season games very lightly, however I had a brief look at some 'breakouts' last year (e.g. Parker, Johanissen to an extent) and found that they had one or more great games in the NAB.

While Lumumba burns in the back of my mind (140SC in NAB 3), do you think that we should be taking the JLT more seriously? (Higgins, I'm looking at you)

Hey dyii,
I think they should be largely ignored for your Premium picks, used as confirmation for any value picks you might have, and of course, used for Rookie identification. In the case of players like Higgins, I would only be looking to see how he gets through the games. He's not going to show you anything you didn't already know, so his form shouldn't be the deciding factor for him, or any other "well established" player. I think we can assume Higgins will play a decent amount of Mid time this season, so the only question you need to ask yourself is, are you willing to risk his horrible game count history?
While it might have appeared the intensity has been there in this JLT series, I can assure you, it is nowhere near the "real stuff". Tackle counts are down, physical contact is down a bit, certainly tagging is down as well. It's not completely "bruise free" football, but it's the next best/worst thing!

 

[Santoz]

While it might have appeared the intensity has been there in this JLT series, I can assure you, it is nowhere near the "real stuff". Tackle counts are down, physical contact is down a bit, certainly tagging is down as well. It's not completely "bruise free" football, but it's the next best/worst thing!

Higgins plays bruise free anyway to an extent.

North want his class around the packs after the likes of Swallow, Cunnington et al do the dirty work inside.

I've liked what I've seen in relation to how he's being played and will definitely be starting him.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

Thank you for your replies.
Just wondering also on your plan in starting any high priced premiums in defence.
Laird and Adams seem to be everyone's choice but are you also looking at paying overs for the likes of a Shaw or Docherty ? I cannot bring myself to start with Shaw but Docherty looks like his scores will continue this year.
I guess it's like starting with Gawn or Goldy instead of a Grundy knowing that although you are paying top dollar you are getting one of the possibly best in that position to start with. Although Goldy you could argue is underpriced maybe?
I understand that Rucks maybe a little different as it is harder to find value but should we start with at least one top premium in defence like Doc or Shaw?
I am finding it hard to pay that much.

 

[Prochard]

Hey riwsus thoughts on zach touhy?

 

[Cattleherder]

Hello Rowsus
I trust you are well and thanks as always for your insights and quick responses! My question regards the returning Essendon premiums such as Heppell and Watson and what effect the year off may have had on them. The stats in a previous post showed that Mid-priced premiums returning after a year off due to injury did not perform all that well, with a few exceptions. What is your view on the risk of selecting the returning players?

regards Peter

 

[anfa18]

Possibly a difficult question for a definitive answer, but here goes. Is there a point where ownership of a player could be seen as "must have" whether the end result is positive or negative? To follow the crowd so to speak. There are some players i have really been against starting all pre-season as they break a couple of my SC rules, but their high ownership is really making me second guess myself.

Swallow 39.1%
Roughead 38.9%
O'Meara 38%
Adams 30.6%
Sandilands 22.2%
Ryder 21%

I understand the reasoning to start any and all of those players, i'm just not sure at what point i draw the line and just follow the high ownership.

 

[THCLT]

I'd say that, outside Adams, the rest of those listed players are for structural reason.

Most of them are on my watch list, but they DO NOT define the structure of my starting team. I like to think of them as players who I'd consider if I have left over funds and/or I can get them by going from an expensive rookie to a cheaper one.

I'll leave it to Rows to provide a more elaborate response, but just wanted to add my thoughts as I've been wrestling with this exact thing over the past few days.

 

[KLo30]

Possibly a difficult question for a definitive answer, but here goes. Is there a point where ownership of a player could be seen as "must have" whether the end result is positive or negative? To follow the crowd so to speak. There are some players i have really been against starting all pre-season as they break a couple of my SC rules, but their high ownership is really making me second guess myself.

Swallow 39.1%
Roughead 38.9%
O'Meara 38%
Adams 30.6%
Sandilands 22.2%
Ryder 21%

I understand the reasoning to start any and all of those players, i'm just not sure at what point i draw the line and just follow the high ownership.

Somewhere in Rowsus' last 1000 posts he has answered this type of question. Can't find it at the moment surprise, surprise

 

[jones711]

Possibly a difficult question for a definitive answer, but here goes. Is there a point where ownership of a player could be seen as "must have" whether the end result is positive or negative? To follow the crowd so to speak. There are some players i have really been against starting all pre-season as they break a couple of my SC rules, but their high ownership is really making me second guess myself.

Swallow 39.1%
Roughead 38.9%
O'Meara 38%
Adams 30.6%
Sandilands 22.2%
Ryder 21%

I understand the reasoning to start any and all of those players, i'm just not sure at what point i draw the line and just follow the high ownership.

Obviously Rowsus would/will give a much more profound and statistically considered response to this question, however it seems like a classic case of FOMO. Let's look at it a different way to perhaps make us all feel better:

Non Ownership:

Swallow 60.9%
Roughead 61.1%
O'Meara 62%
Adams 69.4%
Sandilands 73.8%
Ryder 79%

 

[Bomber18]

Possibly a difficult question for a definitive answer, but here goes. Is there a point where ownership of a player could be seen as "must have" whether the end result is positive or negative? To follow the crowd so to speak. There are some players i have really been against starting all pre-season as they break a couple of my SC rules, but their high ownership is really making me second guess myself.

Swallow 39.1%
Roughead 38.9%
O'Meara 38%
Adams 30.6%
Sandilands 22.2%
Ryder 21%

I understand the reasoning to start any and all of those players, i'm just not sure at what point i draw the line and just follow the high ownership.

Gee I didn't realise JOM was up to that much, I'm of the opinion you start your favourite of JOM or Swallow (potentially that's what people are doing though).

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Row,

Hope you're well mate and its great to see you getting back into the swing of things. Now, I have just finished my draft league and I was wondering if there are any diamonds in the rough that may have been glanced over. Any assistance to get one over my mates would be greatly appreciated

G'day bender,
I'm well thanks, and I hope you are too.
I'm not sure if you're looking for these diamonds in SC in general, or players that might have been missed in your Draft.
If it's your Draft, a lot depends on how deep your selections went. ie How many players are gone already?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, first question for the new season and hoping to draw on your Demons expertise as well as your statistical insights. I have room for a mid price POD in either the DEF or FWD line (or even both depending on how the rucks fall) and am having a very good look at both Salem and Petracca. I think they are both potential AFL stars in the making and am thinking that a combination of more experience, more time on the ball and the overall development of the Dees may translate into greater SC point scoring potential for both of them. In the high 300k area they both very much fit the bill of mid-price madness and fail all your tests for stepping stones etc. so I guess my question is do one or both of them have the potential to become a keeper this year. Thanks in advance !

Hi j711,
they both have the potential to make Keeper level this season, but I rate Petracca a better chance. I know BB (not bb) really rates Salem, and always has an eye to bringing Salem into his team, but always just falls short of doing it. I think Salem can suffer from "possession disease", where he can rack up good disposal numbers, but doesn't always convert those to good SC scores. Having said that, like any small Def, he can have quiet days too. Petracca is likely to have less quiet days I would think, and I actually replaced Acres with Petracca in my side a little while ago. It does leave me with a problem though! My Forward line currently reads: Dahl, Heeney/Riewoldt, Petracca, Rookie, Rookie, Rookie. The problem is, they are all Round 11 players, and if you are going to have a "problem" bye Round, you don't want it to be Round 11!!!! The only way to fix a Round 11 bye problem, is to bring in players who will then face a bye in the next week or two, or Port or GC players. Not a very desirable situation!
Petracca is doing what you want a good Mid/Fwd to do, and that's getting a good number of possessions as contested possessions, around 50%, and he can kick a goal. If he was a little taller, and took a few more Marks, he'd nearly be your blue print of a future Mid. People are predicting Heeney to be a staple for our SC teams for years to come, and I wouldn't be surprised if Petracca turned out to be one too.

 

[Rowsus]

im not sure on how to calculate scores to $ changes

so I'm asking what would the following players price be with the following av by rd 6 - 8 - 10 & Max Price with that average

David Swallow $280k av 90
Marc Murphy $430k av 100
Dayne Beams $430k av 105
Jager O'Mera av 95

Sandi av 95

Cheers in advance looking at being M5 through M8 with Danger, Parker, Treloar and Fyfe

Swallow - averaging 90 - Round 6: 402k, 422k, 432k
Marc Murphy - Averaging 100 - 482k, 488k, 491k
Dayne Beams - Averaging 105 - 500k, 509k, 514k
O'Meara - Averaging 95 - 431k, 450k, 459k
Sandi - Averaging 95 - 428k, 448k, 458k

Thought I'd help Row out, all prices calculated using KLo's spreadsheet!

Thanks for the time saver, bb.

BTJ, and anyone else reading this, I suggest you visit:

SuperCoach Scores SuperCoach Planner

and down load the absolutely brilliant planner designed by KLo30. He released very early on, and it hasn't received the recommendation and acknowledgement it deserves.
It's a ripper! Go get it, and have a play!

 

[Rowsus]

I'd love to get your thoughts on my super POD idea of Clay Oliver while you're looking at these two Row.

Hard at it as anybody going around!!! He will injure a few players this season, and I just hope it's more opposition players than Melbourne players! He will probably injure himself too, the way he plays. He will unfortunately get some negating/run with type roles this season, but I'm also confident he'll have some good scores too. I don't think he's a SC option...... at the moment. Keep him in mind for 2019!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Thank you for your replies.
Just wondering also on your plan in starting any high priced premiums in defence.
Laird and Adams seem to be everyone's choice but are you also looking at paying overs for the likes of a Shaw or Docherty ? I cannot bring myself to start with Shaw but Docherty looks like his scores will continue this year.
I guess it's like starting with Gawn or Goldy instead of a Grundy knowing that although you are paying top dollar you are getting one of the possibly best in that position to start with. Although Goldy you could argue is underpriced maybe?
I understand that Rucks maybe a little different as it is harder to find value but should we start with at least one top premium in defence like Doc or Shaw?
I am finding it hard to pay that much.

Hey Slammer,
I actually have a different view to starting high priced Rucks or Mids, than starting high priced Fwds or Defs. Particularly with the Defs, I'd be avoiding them, or only starting one, maybe two, of the Defs above $530k. Adams and Laird are the most expensive Defs I have right now, and I was keen on Montagna, but I don't like him having a calf problem. There are 6 Defs more expensive than Adams, and a combination of value, age and injury queries has me avoiding them all. If you are going to pay that much for a Def, you want to be sure they are cherry ripe, and confident they'll score at around 100 or better. None of those 6 fit that description for me right now.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey riwsus thoughts on zach touhy?

Hey Rowsus

Hodge had a down year last year but seems to be firing this preseason. Other than his age, can you see a downside? The midfield is down on stars and I think he'll be back in the thick of it - very possibly a top 6. What are your thoughts stat-wise?

If Tuohy continues to take the Enright role off half-back throughout the JLT then I'll be tempted to start him as well.

Then I look at my 3 defensive premiums and it reads Laird, Hodge, Tuohy - and then I facepalm myself because it looks atrocious.

Can I only really take 1 of either Hodge or Tuohy? If that's the case then Tuohy hasn't missed a game in 4 years, and with a change of role.. well.. I think I'd have to go with the Irishman.. all of this off the back of one JLT game.. but nevertheless..

Let's say Hodge plays 18 games and Tuohy plays 22.. what averages would they need to hit to be worthwhile?

Thanks in advance - and congrats on the 500,000!

Hey RBB,
initially I had Hodge locked into my team, but I've gone a bit cold on him. Yes, the potential is there for him to play more Mid time, but I believe Hawthorn might really spread the roles around to fill the gaps left by Mitchell and Lewis. Titchell will get the lions share, but I also believe Hawthorn will use the opportunity to get more Mid time into some younger players. They certainly need to do that, as far as their short term future is concerned.
The other thing that concerns me is Hodge's inconsistency.
2012 - 8/85.9 - PIT60 69.4
2013 - 20/96.7 - PIT60 93.4
2014 - 19/91.5 - PIT60 87.2
2015 - 17/108.2 - PIT60 97.2
2016 - 13/88.5 - PIT60 76.9
From a Def's point of view, that's 3 fails, 1 passable season, and one good season in his last 5. Not tremendous. Compare that to Montagna, who's SC averages read well for a Def listed player, in 9 out of the last 10 seasons, and Hodge becomes a risk I'm not taking at the moment. I think Hodge definitely is in the "start him, or forget him" category.

As to Tuohy, I think he had plenty of chances to be SC relevant before this season. Rowsus rule #7 - a leopard doesn't change it's spots. There's not many examples of a 120 game player changing clubs, and then suddenly becoming SC relevant. He looks a pre-season trap to me.

If Hodge plays 18 I think he needs to average around 97, so he gets a PIT60 of 90. If Tuohy plays 22, you want him to average at least 90. Therein lies the problem. You don't want both your D5 & D6 to be PIT60 90 players, so if you take both, you probably want one of them to push their PIT60 up into the 92/93 area.

Thanks for the kind words. Time will tell if I can reach 1,000,000!

Hey Pro,
here is what I said ro RBB about Tuohy 8 days ago.

 

[Rowsus]

Hello Rowsus
I trust you are well and thanks as always for your insights and quick responses! My question regards the returning Essendon premiums such as Heppell and Watson and what effect the year off may have had on them. The stats in a previous post showed that Mid-priced premiums returning after a year off due to injury did not perform all that well, with a few exceptions. What is your view on the risk of selecting the returning players?

regards Peter

Hey Peter,
I am well thanks, and I hope things are going well for you too! Great to see you back.
I'm of the mind that we should be taking as few risks as possible with our starting 12-14 Keepers, and with that in mind, the only wat to cut our wish list down, and our risks down, is to identify reasons why they mightn't be good picks. To me, that's easy with the Essendon players, and I won't be starting any non-Rookie Essendon players, as there is just that unknown factor, and I'd rather keep to the (more) known options.
Good luck, I hope you have a great season!

 

[Slammer]

Hey Slammer,
I actually have a different view to starting high priced Rucks or Mids, than starting high priced Fwds or Defs. Particularly with the Defs, I'd be avoiding them, or only starting one, maybe two, of the Defs above $530k. Adams and Laird are the most expensive Defs I have right now, and I was keen on Montagna, but I don't like him having a calf problem. There are 6 Defs more expensive than Adams, and a combination of value, age and injury queries has me avoiding them all. If you are going to pay that much for a Def, you want to be sure they are cherry ripe, and confident they'll score at around 100 or better. None of those 6 fit that description for me right now.

Thanks Rows,

I tend to agree.
However this year I am finding it hard with Ruck selection also but to a lesser extent.
I am wondering how much affect the likes of an emerging Spencer ,Preuss and Cox will will have on Gawn, Goldy and Grundy respectively. In particular Gawn at that price. Do u think nothing will change and the premo Rucks will continue scoring well as they will rest up fwd more? Or do u think these teams will play both Rucks and their scores will suffer slightly?

 

[benderiffic]

It was a 10 x 22 player draft. Really just on the look out for any players that you feel could improve significantly on last years numbers

 

[Hawk]

It was a 10 x 22 player draft. Really just on the look out for any players that you feel could improve significantly on last years numbers

Just make sure you're ready and waiting on your PC after that R1 lockout. Draft is won and lost on those R1 bolters IMO.