Hey mate, hope you've been well and enjoyed the off-season to date. My teams been pretty stable outside of my 5 starting gun mids, which I seem to change every day.
I know you're keen on Danger, and he's the one who is locked for me also, but what are your thoughts on the other 600k + mids?
Macrae, Neale and Cripps seem safe picks, Fyfe and Kelly obviously have the scoring potential with an injury risk, Titch is coming back from injury and Bont and Dunkley could either be the best or worst of the lot.
History shows that not all will be good picks but it's tough at the moment to work out who will be and who won't!
Hey ZP, welcome back. The off-season was just average, as I didn't achieve all that I wanted, but I hope yours was good.
This season there are 11 Mids in the $600k+ bracket. Just looking at the players that played Round 1, in 2019 there were 6, and 2018 there were 10. Here are the players that achieved that:
It's a little bit confusing to look at, at first, which is typical for me, but here is what it all means.
Macrae opened $689,700 in Round 1, and achieved a 22/123 season. After Round 8 you could have traded him in for $574,000, and you would have gotten 14/127 after trading him in.
2019
Amazingly, they were all picks that paid their way if you started them. While Oliver's average probably disappointed those that started him, he actually totalled 60 points more than Cripps, and didn't give you too many headaches, as he played every game.
If you traded them in, in the right Round, you potentially did very well! Those who were smart enough to grab Danger after Round 9 got 12 games @ 127 for $471k. Probably the bargain of the season!
2018
This was a different kettle of fish! By the way, why are you putting fish in your kettle?!
7 out of the 10 were probably regrettable starting picks! So across the 2 seasons 7 out of 16, or 44% of them, were regrettable. This fits nicely with my theory that 40-50% of real Prems turn out to be regrettable starting picks. It even higher for those Faux Prems! You were better off starting Mitchell, but those that waited, and traded him in, did well too. Oliver was good at the start, and the trade too. Ablett, Merrett, Crouch, Duncan, Kelly and Zorko did ok, if you traded them in at the right time. Martin and Sloane were the only ones you didn't really want at anytime, so 8 of the 10 proved their worth at some time in the season. That gives those hunting in-season fallen Prems something to smile about!
2020
I'm not sure there is any tried and true way to narrow down those likely to fail, or likely to succeed. Obviously the risk is higher, for those with a history of missing games (Kelly, Whitfield, to a lesser extent, Fyfe, Cripps, Mitchell and Treloar). It's also an increased risk taking players with a short of history of flying this high (Whitfield, Dunkley, and to a lesser extent the Bont). Whitfield's short history is mitigated by him only needing to score as a Fwd, not a mid. Just looking at those facts listed above, it leaves the safer looking ones to be: Dangerfield, Macrae and Neale. Fyfe and Cripps have small question marks over them. Whitfield can miss games, but looks a good chance to be a top Fwd. That leaves Kelly, Dunkley, Treloar, Bont and Mitchell as having a higher risk attached to them. Doesn't mean they won't be good picks though.
Good luck sorting them out. I currently have 5 of them in my team, but only 3 of those 5 are locked.
