Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Joined
3 Feb 2014
Messages
2,878
Likes
1,843
AFL Club
West Coast
Hi Rowsus.

As I guess most people are, I'm currently at a bit of a crossroads for my F3. Right now, I can just squeeze Heeney in, but I could also go as far down as Devon Smith, giving me about $176k in the bank if I did so. I'm reasonably happy with the rest of my premium picks, so that change would really only be used on rookie adjustments.

Is there a sizeable advantage with having $150k in the bank (taking rookie adjustments into account here), be it getting an earlier upgrade or potentially saving a trade?

Or is it a potential trap, tempting one to spend the $$$ before rookies max out?
 
Joined
26 Jun 2019
Messages
489
Likes
1,480
AFL Club
Richmond
Hi Rowsus.

As I guess most people are, I'm currently at a bit of a crossroads for my F3. Right now, I can just squeeze Heeney in, but I could also go as far down as Devon Smith, giving me about $176k in the bank if I did so. I'm reasonably happy with the rest of my premium picks, so that change would really only be used on rookie adjustments.

Is there a sizeable advantage with having $150k in the bank (taking rookie adjustments into account here), be it getting an earlier upgrade or potentially saving a trade?

Or is it a potential trap, tempting one to spend the $$$ before rookies max out?
I would like to offer an opinion here, but it's Rowsus's thread so I'll desist.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
19,519
Likes
12,167
AFL Club
Melbourne
I would like to offer an opinion here, but it's Rowsus's thread so I'll desist.
If it's okay with @Rowsus, I'd love to read your thoughts.
While my name is on the thread, and I answer every question put here, everyone is free to contribute. If you see a question you feel you can add something to, by all means, give an answer!
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
19,519
Likes
12,167
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey mate, hope you've been well and enjoyed the off-season to date. My teams been pretty stable outside of my 5 starting gun mids, which I seem to change every day.

I know you're keen on Danger, and he's the one who is locked for me also, but what are your thoughts on the other 600k + mids?

Macrae, Neale and Cripps seem safe picks, Fyfe and Kelly obviously have the scoring potential with an injury risk, Titch is coming back from injury and Bont and Dunkley could either be the best or worst of the lot.

History shows that not all will be good picks but it's tough at the moment to work out who will be and who won't!
Hey ZP, welcome back. The off-season was just average, as I didn't achieve all that I wanted, but I hope yours was good.
This season there are 11 Mids in the $600k+ bracket. Just looking at the players that played Round 1, in 2019 there were 6, and 2018 there were 10. Here are the players that achieved that:

QFR 2020 9705.png

It's a little bit confusing to look at, at first, which is typical for me, but here is what it all means.

QFR 2020 9705a.png

Macrae opened $689,700 in Round 1, and achieved a 22/123 season. After Round 8 you could have traded him in for $574,000, and you would have gotten 14/127 after trading him in.

2019
Amazingly, they were all picks that paid their way if you started them. While Oliver's average probably disappointed those that started him, he actually totalled 60 points more than Cripps, and didn't give you too many headaches, as he played every game.
If you traded them in, in the right Round, you potentially did very well! Those who were smart enough to grab Danger after Round 9 got 12 games @ 127 for $471k. Probably the bargain of the season!
2018
This was a different kettle of fish! By the way, why are you putting fish in your kettle?! :unsure:
7 out of the 10 were probably regrettable starting picks! So across the 2 seasons 7 out of 16, or 44% of them, were regrettable. This fits nicely with my theory that 40-50% of real Prems turn out to be regrettable starting picks. It even higher for those Faux Prems! You were better off starting Mitchell, but those that waited, and traded him in, did well too. Oliver was good at the start, and the trade too. Ablett, Merrett, Crouch, Duncan, Kelly and Zorko did ok, if you traded them in at the right time. Martin and Sloane were the only ones you didn't really want at anytime, so 8 of the 10 proved their worth at some time in the season. That gives those hunting in-season fallen Prems something to smile about!

2020
I'm not sure there is any tried and true way to narrow down those likely to fail, or likely to succeed. Obviously the risk is higher, for those with a history of missing games (Kelly, Whitfield, to a lesser extent, Fyfe, Cripps, Mitchell and Treloar). It's also an increased risk taking players with a short of history of flying this high (Whitfield, Dunkley, and to a lesser extent the Bont). Whitfield's short history is mitigated by him only needing to score as a Fwd, not a mid. Just looking at those facts listed above, it leaves the safer looking ones to be: Dangerfield, Macrae and Neale. Fyfe and Cripps have small question marks over them. Whitfield can miss games, but looks a good chance to be a top Fwd. That leaves Kelly, Dunkley, Treloar, Bont and Mitchell as having a higher risk attached to them. Doesn't mean they won't be good picks though.

Good luck sorting them out. I currently have 5 of them in my team, but only 3 of those 5 are locked.
 
Joined
2 Feb 2017
Messages
339
Likes
90
Hey Row,

Do you have any stats on hand regarding change in player average in the first year with a new coach?

With saints, crows, freo, north, blues all having new coaches it would be interesting to look into the effects on average that a new coach brings.

Cheers
 
Joined
13 Mar 2016
Messages
929
Likes
2,102
AFL Club
West Coast
Hey Row,

Do you have any stats on hand regarding change in player average in the first year with a new coach?

With saints, crows, freo, north, blues all having new coaches it would be interesting to look into the effects on average that a new coach brings.

Cheers
I would think that if you look at this simplistically its going to be on a player v player basis. Given there are only so many points to be shared across the players, some will improve and some will decline based on change in roles and positions and game style...
 
Joined
2 Feb 2017
Messages
339
Likes
90
I would think that if you look at this simplistically its going to be on a player v player basis. Given there are only so many points to be shared across the players, some will improve and some will decline based on change in roles and positions and game style...
But does a new coach typically correspond with improved team performance? Which would mean a greater share of the 3300 points? I understand there are multiple factors that affect a players average, still interested to see if there are any patterns though.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
19,519
Likes
12,167
AFL Club
Melbourne
Whats your view on Peter Ladhams??? I know theres not much if anything to really go off but thought you might think he's good or bad pick anyway

Looks like being a pretty good pick potentially but has only scored well against hopeless or not real ruckmen and reports from their practise match are that he is ahead of Lycett at this stage anyway

Could he be this years Marshall?
Ladhams R/F $326,700 - it's really too early to tell. While Lycett is probably front of the queue, Hinkley has shown he's not scared to drop him. I think you need to wait and see how they structure up, and perform, in their 2nd Marsh match. With Lycett not playing the first one, that match won't show you too much.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
19,519
Likes
12,167
AFL Club
Melbourne
Thanks Rowsus
Your analysis is interesting and has prompted a few more thoughts and questions.
Firstly if the statistics say there's about a 5% chance of picking 4 or so successful mid-pricers, doesn't that look like a plausible strategy to get ahead of the pack? With 200,000+ coaches in the hunt, the odds of winning are miniscule, a lot of them are setting out on another (G&R) tack, so a POD strategy offering an advantage looks reasonable to me.

Do we know what the start of season price-profile looks like for recent SC winners/place-getters?

You posted some fairly detailed analysis of mid-price defenders and clearly there weren't a heap of big winners on show.
In my thinking there are 2 categories of mid-pricers..
1 - Proven players who have had a bad season due to injuries.
2 - Younger players who are potential improvers

This year there are 44 Defenders priced in the range $400-450K. On my criteria I would look at only 9 of them as follows.
View attachment 15691
What do you think of their prospects and what average would they need to achieve to be rated as a successful pick?
Happy to help, warewolves.
7 of your 9 are speculative picks, and 2 you are hoping they can return to past glories.
My general rule is "History over potential", so under that heading Doc and Howe are probably the 2 most likely to give you satisfaction.
At the prices they are starting, they need to at least fill a solid D6 role to be considered good picks. Maybe 21+/92+ seasons.
Doc efforts are well documented, but others returning from 2 ACL's have struggled to reach past levels. Still, he doesn't need to reach that high, to be a good pick.
I'm not sure what was up with Howe early last season, but when he returned later in the season, he seemed his old self. I can see him getting back to that 90-92 level, but the problem is, he has averaged missing 3 games/season, the past 4 seasons.
None of your speculative picks thrill me. Maybe Blakely, Clark, Stack, in that order. As you have recently read, it is largely guess work, with this sort of player.
 

Darkie

Leadership Group
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
8,286
Likes
9,315
AFL Club
Collingwood
Happy to help, warewolves.
7 of your 9 are speculative picks, and 2 you are hoping they can return to past glories.
My general rule is "History over potential", so under that heading Doc and Howe are probably the 2 most likely to give you satisfaction.
At the prices they are starting, they need to at least fill a solid D6 role to be considered good picks. Maybe 21+/92+ seasons.
Doc efforts are well documented, but others returning from 2 ACL's have struggled to reach past levels. Still, he doesn't need to reach that high, to be a good pick.
I'm not sure what was up with Howe early last season, but when he returned later in the season, he seemed his old self. I can see him getting back to that 90-92 level, but the problem is, he has averaged missing 3 games/season, the past 4 seasons.
None of your speculative picks thrill me. Maybe Blakely, Clark, Stack, in that order. As you have recently read, it is largely guess work, with this sort of player.
I think Darcy Moore may have been a factor in Howe’s scoring.

When Howe returned in round 18, Moore didn’t play, and Howe went 90, 100, 84, 105, 116. Moore returned in round 23 and Howe scored 58 ... although they both tonned up in both finals.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
19,519
Likes
12,167
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus.

As I guess most people are, I'm currently at a bit of a crossroads for my F3. Right now, I can just squeeze Heeney in, but I could also go as far down as Devon Smith, giving me about $176k in the bank if I did so. I'm reasonably happy with the rest of my premium picks, so that change would really only be used on rookie adjustments.

Is there a sizeable advantage with having $150k in the bank (taking rookie adjustments into account here), be it getting an earlier upgrade or potentially saving a trade?

Or is it a potential trap, tempting one to spend the $$$ before rookies max out?
Hi Eagling,
it's really as simple as, what is your expectation for each of these players?
If you think they'll both score at a good enough level to be Keepers, then you'd be crazy not to take Smith.
If you think Heeney will, but Smith won't, you'd be crazy not to take Heeney.
I'm against using dollars just because they are sitting there. Against that, if you have dollars sitting there, and you are reasonably happy that they can improve your team, use them! Don't keep dollars to help improve your team later, if they can improve your team now!
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
19,519
Likes
12,167
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey Row,

Do you have any stats on hand regarding change in player average in the first year with a new coach?

With saints, crows, freo, north, blues all having new coaches it would be interesting to look into the effects on average that a new coach brings.

Cheers
I would think that if you look at this simplistically its going to be on a player v player basis. Given there are only so many points to be shared across the players, some will improve and some will decline based on change in roles and positions and game style...
But does a new coach typically correspond with improved team performance? Which would mean a greater share of the 3300 points? I understand there are multiple factors that affect a players average, still interested to see if there are any patterns though.
Hi TG,
no, that's not something I have stats on. I'd be reasonably certain you'll find as many positive examples as negative ones though.
A new Coach doesn't necessarily translate to a better team performance, so that's not really a factor either.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
19,519
Likes
12,167
AFL Club
Melbourne
I think Darcy Moore may have been a factor in Howe’s scoring.

When Howe returned in round 18, Moore didn’t play, and Howe went 90, 100, 84, 105, 116. Moore returned in round 23 and Howe scored 58 ... although they both tonned up in both finals.
I considered that, and may definitely be a factor. In particular, I thought Moore might be eating some of Howe's Intercept Marks. I couldn't find anything to support this, so I let it go. Moore could definitely be a factor though.
 
Joined
12 Jan 2014
Messages
1,387
Likes
1,389
AFL Club
West Coast
But does a new coach typically correspond with improved team performance? Which would mean a greater share of the 3300 points? I understand there are multiple factors that affect a players average, still interested to see if there are any patterns though.
I think it is very much an individual by individual scenario. Why was that player recruited? Do the new club have a specific role in mind and is that role SC friendly? Take Telly at WCE. I do not think his ave will improve other than any natural improvement as a 3rd year player. WCE have a better midfield than Geelong and WCE just want him to do the same kind of thing as he did at Geelong. Now take Freo. They recruited Aish. He was with the Pies and JLo, as a former Pies coach recruited him for a reason. Does not mean he will be SC relevant but he is going to get a go as the coach wanted him in his 22. Likewise Acres. He is from WA. He gets a chance to come home and to play some kind of midfield role he probably did not get at St Kilda. I think there is no pattern. I think the circumstances of the move tell you more than anything else but they are not always clear to the general public.
 
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
2,489
Likes
1,278
AFL Club
West Coast
Rowsus - I feel I need to come to you to confess my sins.

I am being seduced by Ceglar, Smith x 2 (Dev/Bro), Houston, Doc, Sicily. Is this mid price or breakout sub premiums? LOL

Gawn is out as it allows me to get a 5th mid but lost Townsend in the forward line and Noah Anderson in the mids. Currently no Max King or Mahoney who could be low scoring forwards.

D4 - Doc
M5 - Bont/M8 Pickett
R2 - Ceglar
F4/5 - Bonar/Hill
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
19,519
Likes
12,167
AFL Club
Melbourne
Test
Rowsus - I feel I need to come to you to confess my sins.

I am being seduced by Ceglar, Smith x 2 (Dev/Bro), Houston, Doc, Sicily. Is this mid price or breakout sub premiums? LOL

Gawn is out as it allows me to get a 5th mid but lost Townsend in the forward line and Noah Anderson in the mids. Currently no Max King or Mahoney who could be low scoring forwards.

D4 - Doc
M5 - Bont/M8 Pickett
R2 - Ceglar
F4/5 - Bonar/Hill
GFB, how many days since your last confession?
While arguments can be made for and against each of them, it's not totally sinful.

Ceglar $417,000 - strikes me more as a Place Holder, than a Stepping Stone. ie, will likely stay around his current value, just keeping the seat warm until you upgrade him.
Smith Dev $335,800 - probably too expensive to be a Stepping Stone, so that means he needs to score at a Keeper level, assuming Forwards score to a similar level as last season. While I think he might possibly manage that, I'm worried his game count might spoil the party.
Smith Bro $481,300 - Strikes me as we've seen his best, and know his level, 21-22/87-89 type player. I don't want to pay full price for a player of that description.
Houston $484,800 - Locked. Only injury gets him out of my team.
Doc $436,100 - In all likelihood won't get back to his old level, but doesn't need to, to be a good pick.
Sicily $509,500 - why not?!
Tomlinson $390,200 - I wouldn't have him, on whatwe saw in Marsh Round 1. Too expensive to be a Stepping Stone.
Noah Anderson $202,800 - would probably want to show more than his SC 59 from 77% TOG in Marsh Round 1.
 
Joined
21 Jan 2016
Messages
2,419
Likes
4,527
AFL Club
Collingwood
Hi Rowsus,

RE: you said "Ceglar $417,000 - strikes me more as a Place Holder, than a Stepping Stone. ie, will likely stay around his current value, just keeping the seat warm until you upgrade him."

I expect Ceglar to increase his avg, hoping over 90 SC pts, but if he stays around his current value (77 SC pts), then his scoring is not good enough to be in the Fwd starting 6. My main purpose to having Ceglar in the Fwd line, besides being a serviceable scorer for the whole season, is to be a back up for any short term injury to Grundy and Gawn. Grundy (26yo) and Gawn (28yo) only missed 1 game in the past 2 years.

1. Is this a good plan and stick to it?
2. Or select a player that I am more confident will score 90 plus SC pts, like a Heeney? (I have Whitfield, Dusty and Petracca, but actually not sure who will be the top 6 Fwds, hmmm.)

In the past I have always been conservative, and the conservative me says play safe and select Ceglar, but for the first time, I'm going to try something different. I'm going to play to finish higher up the ranks, so this is new to me (I'm blaming @Connoisseur 's Quartet's Competition for this change, as I don't want to let the team down :)). I'm thinking I have to be more aggressive and take more risks and go for players that I think will be higher scorers, to rake in as many points as I can.
So is being aggressive the way to go? Take chances on potentially high scorers like a Tom Mitchell?

Another example of me playing safe is to select Def/Fwd J Dawson to swap around with a D/Fs Hill or Brander, if I have a short term injury in Fwd or Def. But I'm not sure if Dawson will be a 90 plus scorer? I could select Docherty instead, who you said could be a good pick.
 
Top