Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Just wondering your thoughts on Swan v Griffen. For most (like me) who have 3-4 round 8 bye premium mids, Swan isn't a bye smart option, but given that Swan has the lower b/e this week, so his price is likely to rebound more strongly this week, if you are wanting to get both in in the next couple of weeks, is it better to get Swan first and then grab Griffen in a couple of weeks (potentially ahead of the round 8 bye)? Or should we grab Griffen now, even though Swan is likely to be a higher priced option after the bye?
For me personally I should have just enough players to get 18 in round 8 if I take Swan, with 3 non playing players mid, 1 fwd and none back or ruck in my 22.
For me personally I should have just enough players to get 18 in round 8 if I take Swan, with 3 non playing players mid, 1 fwd and none back or ruck in my 22.
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I'm just going to throw my opinion out here and i don't intend on sounding rude!
Now i'm not really setting the SC world alight or anything therefore my opinion can be taken with a grain of salt, however i think its paramount to look at double downgrading this week rather than chasing a few extra points for only one week (performing a down and up grade) - cashing in on rookies is just about the most important facet.
can't pick when good or ok rookies will present themselves unless downgrading to a floating donut. there will always be good prems fluctuating. griffen isn't a must have this week - swan i think is a must after their bye given maggies fixture and his scoring history.
its just many questions are based around what is more important - upgrading or downgrading. i really want to upgrade next week, heart is saying do it however the head is saying take the money and double downgrade as there are a few decent downgrade options with rookies on the bubble.
Now i'm not really setting the SC world alight or anything therefore my opinion can be taken with a grain of salt, however i think its paramount to look at double downgrading this week rather than chasing a few extra points for only one week (performing a down and up grade) - cashing in on rookies is just about the most important facet.
can't pick when good or ok rookies will present themselves unless downgrading to a floating donut. there will always be good prems fluctuating. griffen isn't a must have this week - swan i think is a must after their bye given maggies fixture and his scoring history.
its just many questions are based around what is more important - upgrading or downgrading. i really want to upgrade next week, heart is saying do it however the head is saying take the money and double downgrade as there are a few decent downgrade options with rookies on the bubble.
From my observations Libba is being affected by the following:
1. He is getting more attention from the opposition. Case in point Curnow was a heavy tag last evening.
2. Minson has not been as dominate as last year.
3. He is a plodder. He rarely spreads, and is more likely to find himself alone in the corridor or closer to where the ball came from because everyone else has spread.
4. He starts slow because he doesn't have a turn of pace, but will keep going like the 'Ever Ready Bunny'. This is why he managed a half reasonable score against Carlton. His big game came after being on 7 points deep into the first quarter.
5. His style of 'hard-ball gets' results in a quick handball or kick, and not sprinting away from a pack. CD don't seem to rate this as highly this season so far (my opinion and have no facts to back this claim).
1. He is getting more attention from the opposition. Case in point Curnow was a heavy tag last evening.
2. Minson has not been as dominate as last year.
3. He is a plodder. He rarely spreads, and is more likely to find himself alone in the corridor or closer to where the ball came from because everyone else has spread.
4. He starts slow because he doesn't have a turn of pace, but will keep going like the 'Ever Ready Bunny'. This is why he managed a half reasonable score against Carlton. His big game came after being on 7 points deep into the first quarter.
5. His style of 'hard-ball gets' results in a quick handball or kick, and not sprinting away from a pack. CD don't seem to rate this as highly this season so far (my opinion and have no facts to back this claim).
Whilst I tend to agree with you, and this is my current thinking, there will be rookies which will become available in the coming weeks.
Bontempelli (mid) played this round
Honeychurch (mid/fwd) isn't far away
Salem (mid) could take his turn next round
Lennon (fwd) close after overcoming injury
Z.Merrett (fwd) an injury/poor form away from his 3rd game
Dumont & Brown are possibles for inclusion at North
These are just a few example which spring to mind without deeper research.
Bontempelli (mid) played this round
Honeychurch (mid/fwd) isn't far away
Salem (mid) could take his turn next round
Lennon (fwd) close after overcoming injury
Z.Merrett (fwd) an injury/poor form away from his 3rd game
Dumont & Brown are possibles for inclusion at North
These are just a few example which spring to mind without deeper research.
It's just off the top of my head, and depending on how you define it, there are even more.
I don't think you can apply any criteria to it, to try and predict who might do it. Rookies scores are inconsistent, and it's this inconsistency that causes second winds. To try an predict it, you have to be able to predict their scores and if they'll be subbed. Nearly impossible on both accounts.
I don't think you can apply any criteria to it, to try and predict who might do it. Rookies scores are inconsistent, and it's this inconsistency that causes second winds. To try an predict it, you have to be able to predict their scores and if they'll be subbed. Nearly impossible on both accounts.
I don't think you can parcel every team into one situation.
Yes, some teams would be well served by a double downgrade this week, but there is no way you can say it is something every team should do. Their structure should decide it. What is good for one team, doesn't always work for another team. That can apply to players, too. Moloney last season is a good example. He worked well for some teams, and not so well for others. You can't just label him as a success or failure, you have to look at the circumstances that accompany it as well. Same here. I would say there are definitely some teams that should/could do upgrades this week as their best option. With 300,000 teams out there, there will be very few occassions that something will suit every one of them.
Yes, some teams would be well served by a double downgrade this week, but there is no way you can say it is something every team should do. Their structure should decide it. What is good for one team, doesn't always work for another team. That can apply to players, too. Moloney last season is a good example. He worked well for some teams, and not so well for others. You can't just label him as a success or failure, you have to look at the circumstances that accompany it as well. Same here. I would say there are definitely some teams that should/could do upgrades this week as their best option. With 300,000 teams out there, there will be very few occassions that something will suit every one of them.
With the issues of the forward line this year (i.e. poor rookies, poor mid pricers - Caddy, Mitchell), would you think it is ideal to complete the FWD line ASAP?
Reason for this is because I was hit with the double Titch and Caddy issue this round which impacted on my team's scoring and my trade plans. Brought in Pavlich (a win for me this round - thanks for recommending him to me!). Next I'm thinking of bringing in NRoo as he would easily be a keeper and top 6 FWD this year BUT still expensive although back to his original price at start of season. Is it too rash of me to rush him into my side at such a high price point for a FWD? It would give me 5 FWD keepers and F6 taken by Higgins. Looking at other FWD options, it is very difficult to scope out who will be in top 10 FWDs this year:
Roughie - most likely, but want to wait till he gets cheap after his low score today?
Zorko - he is working his way up from the low 49 two ronds ago?
Breust (I did read your Trade Tables forum on him)?
Gunston?
Darling?
Currently have Danger, Martin, Parker, Pavlich, Caddy, Higgins, L Taylor, JKH
Understood that there are cheap MID options this week such as Swan and Griffen but every round I feel like I get hit by the poor peforming FWDs that I feel I should fix up and lockdown.
Reason for this is because I was hit with the double Titch and Caddy issue this round which impacted on my team's scoring and my trade plans. Brought in Pavlich (a win for me this round - thanks for recommending him to me!). Next I'm thinking of bringing in NRoo as he would easily be a keeper and top 6 FWD this year BUT still expensive although back to his original price at start of season. Is it too rash of me to rush him into my side at such a high price point for a FWD? It would give me 5 FWD keepers and F6 taken by Higgins. Looking at other FWD options, it is very difficult to scope out who will be in top 10 FWDs this year:
Roughie - most likely, but want to wait till he gets cheap after his low score today?
Zorko - he is working his way up from the low 49 two ronds ago?
Breust (I did read your Trade Tables forum on him)?
Gunston?
Darling?
Currently have Danger, Martin, Parker, Pavlich, Caddy, Higgins, L Taylor, JKH
Understood that there are cheap MID options this week such as Swan and Griffen but every round I feel like I get hit by the poor peforming FWDs that I feel I should fix up and lockdown.
Marc Murphy is still available for almost his starting price which is cheaper than Griffin and Swan and has a better scoring history than Griffin with a Rnd 9 bye. I've been told by an avid Bulldogs supporter that Griffen has a bad back and can't play without painkillers and I'm concerned that Swan might be starting to decline. Are there statistics Rowsus that might give us a hint that a Gun player is declining?
Actually, because it is so hard at the moment to identify who the F5 and F6 will be come seasons end, I think it's best to develop your other areas first. At least you can have a bit of confidence in your trades there. I'd look to fix Caddy, probably to Lloyd. I don't like the idea of paying so much for NRoo. Let's compare NRoo and Swan, just for convenience sake, I know Swan mightn't fit your structure right now. They're both likely to miss a game or two between now and the end of the season, so let's call that part a tie.
NRoo has averaged over 110 4 times, in seasons 2006/7/8/9 he averaged between 117 and 113. I think it is too much to expect he can do that again. Let's give him a high expectation target of 110 this season, but realistically something in the 106-108 is more likely.
Swan is possibly in decline. 2009/10/11/12 were all over 120, and last year was 117. Let's say he crashes to that same 110.
Assuming they both miss 2 games, and play another 15 for the season, their totals will be 2,200 come seasons end.
NRoo has already scored 606, leaving him 1594 @ 106.3, with his price being $570.0k, each weekly point will cost you $5,364
Swan has already scored 462, leaving him 1738 @ 115.9, with his price being $521.0k, each weekly point will cost you $4,496
It really can be looked at as simply as, that you are buying points. It doesn't always meet expectations, but that is what we are doing. At the moment, the NRoo "expected" points are costing you 19% more than the Swan "expected" points. Why pay 19% more for something that is the same? NRoo points are worth just as much as Swan points in your team total. Buy your points as efficiently as you can.
Also keep in mind, you are not looking for the players that will fill F1-F6 for the season, you are looking for the cheapest Forward that will fill a F1-F6 position, from the time you trade them in! Yes, a "Zorko" might finish the season F6, but you are only interested in what his Ranking will be from the round you trade him into your team, until the end. It's no good trading him in to your team in round 7, and having him finish F6 for the season, if his last 16 games only see him rated F16 for that period of the season from round 7 to round 23.
NRoo has averaged over 110 4 times, in seasons 2006/7/8/9 he averaged between 117 and 113. I think it is too much to expect he can do that again. Let's give him a high expectation target of 110 this season, but realistically something in the 106-108 is more likely.
Swan is possibly in decline. 2009/10/11/12 were all over 120, and last year was 117. Let's say he crashes to that same 110.
Assuming they both miss 2 games, and play another 15 for the season, their totals will be 2,200 come seasons end.
NRoo has already scored 606, leaving him 1594 @ 106.3, with his price being $570.0k, each weekly point will cost you $5,364
Swan has already scored 462, leaving him 1738 @ 115.9, with his price being $521.0k, each weekly point will cost you $4,496
It really can be looked at as simply as, that you are buying points. It doesn't always meet expectations, but that is what we are doing. At the moment, the NRoo "expected" points are costing you 19% more than the Swan "expected" points. Why pay 19% more for something that is the same? NRoo points are worth just as much as Swan points in your team total. Buy your points as efficiently as you can.
Also keep in mind, you are not looking for the players that will fill F1-F6 for the season, you are looking for the cheapest Forward that will fill a F1-F6 position, from the time you trade them in! Yes, a "Zorko" might finish the season F6, but you are only interested in what his Ranking will be from the round you trade him into your team, until the end. It's no good trading him in to your team in round 7, and having him finish F6 for the season, if his last 16 games only see him rated F16 for that period of the season from round 7 to round 23.
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I think if you have lost faith in him, then cashing him out isn't the worst thing to do. I seem to recall both Chewy and Dimma cashing a player out in the week or two before the byes, making sure they had good cash reserves to make that all important bye trading easier. Why not? Back your judgement. He's certainly spending more time away from on-ball duties, or he did this round, anyway.
Unfortunately, nothing concrete that I know of. Some just decline steadily, often with a little "dead cat bounce" in their penultimate season, and others just stop like Father Time jumped on their back, and they have to piggy back him around the whole season. One thing is certain, the really good players that have been called as "gone", can rise again, to thumb their noses at those shouting loudly about their demise.
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Do you think waiting for swan after the bye rounds is a good call?
Because of the temptations of good rookies such as Robertson, Cutler, Lloyd this week I think I will pass on him this week because future rookie prospects seem to be lacking.
If that is the case I will only bring him in for one weeks only to add an extra premium out during R8. I've got 520k banked this week and will grab Griffen next week as his breakeven isn't that small.
Wondering by how much swan would rise in the coming weeks if he scored two 110's or 120's.
Because of the temptations of good rookies such as Robertson, Cutler, Lloyd this week I think I will pass on him this week because future rookie prospects seem to be lacking.
If that is the case I will only bring him in for one weeks only to add an extra premium out during R8. I've got 520k banked this week and will grab Griffen next week as his breakeven isn't that small.
Wondering by how much swan would rise in the coming weeks if he scored two 110's or 120's.
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