Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Hey Rowsus, do you mind explaining to me something?
Is it better to have a premium such as Cotchin who will likely average more, rather than a 'value' pick such as Beams?
Same goes for a 'value' pick in Sam Jacobs vs a premium such as Goldstein. Another case would be Pendlebury or Cotchin?
Would it be better to go for the value pick and pocket the cash, or not have the value and go for the premium? This is assuming that I'm happy with all my other areas, and don't really see anywhere which could use the extra cash.
Is it better to have a premium such as Cotchin who will likely average more, rather than a 'value' pick such as Beams?
Same goes for a 'value' pick in Sam Jacobs vs a premium such as Goldstein. Another case would be Pendlebury or Cotchin?
Would it be better to go for the value pick and pocket the cash, or not have the value and go for the premium? This is assuming that I'm happy with all my other areas, and don't really see anywhere which could use the extra cash.
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It's a actually a fairly complicated question, so I will do my best to answer it. First we need to look at the price differences.
Cotch - Beams = $74,800
Goldstein - Jacobs = $152,200
You then need to look at the difference in their PIT scores for the season. This is where your opinion comes in. You need to have an idea in mind what you think each player might average, and how many games they will play for the season.
You might for example, think something along the following (these are made up, and not my opinion!):
Cotchin 21/114 => 21 x 114 + 1 x 80 Rookie score = 2,474
Beams 18/109 => 18 x 109 + 4 x 80 Rookie scores = 2,282
Goldstein 21/113 => 21 x 113 + 1 x 75 Rookie score = 2,448
Jacobs 22/101 => 22 x 101 + 0 x 75 Rookie scores = 2,222
Now you have to decide when that saved money will be used towards an upgrade. Let's use round 6 for an example. In an ideal world you'd use every dollar, and get a return equal to about 1 point every $5,000 for every week that it is used. We don't live in an ideal World, and you won't achieve 100% efficiency with that money. Let's assume you achieve 70% efficiency, and just to make it simple, let's also assume your upgrade target plays in each of the 16 games after you trade him in.
So, Cotchin for Beams:
The price difference is $74,800. 70% of that is $52,360. That divided by $5,000 = 10.472 pts/week.
We have assumed it is 16 gamess so 10.472 x 16 = 167.552.
At the start we had Cotchin at 2,474 and Beams at 2,282: 2,474 - 2,282 =192 points.
So under the example figures given, you are 192 - 167.5 = 24.5 points better off going Cotchin over Beams,
This of course changes if your opinion on those players is different to the example, and your opinion on how efficiently you can safely assume you can use the cash saved.
Let's do the same exercise with Goldstein and Jacobs.
The price difference is $152,200. 70% of that is $106,540. That divided by $5,000 = 21.308 pts/week.
16 games gives us 16 x 21.308 = 340.928.
At the start we had Goldstein on 2,448 for the season, and Jacobs on 2,222
So Goldstein is 226 points in front of Jacobs before we allow for the cash saved.
226 - 340.928 = you are 114.9 points in front for the season if you take Jacobs instead of Goldstein.
Once again, this assumes my made up figures match yours, and the dollars are used at 70%.
Though what I did there may seem complicated to some, it is actually a bit simplistic, as there are other factors to take into account. For example, if you can complete your team without using the dollars saved in the above example, then Goldstein is the better choice. If you are just isolating the 2 players, and you're not sure if you can complete your team without the cash or not, then that is the best method, IMO.
Cotch - Beams = $74,800
Goldstein - Jacobs = $152,200
You then need to look at the difference in their PIT scores for the season. This is where your opinion comes in. You need to have an idea in mind what you think each player might average, and how many games they will play for the season.
You might for example, think something along the following (these are made up, and not my opinion!):
Cotchin 21/114 => 21 x 114 + 1 x 80 Rookie score = 2,474
Beams 18/109 => 18 x 109 + 4 x 80 Rookie scores = 2,282
Goldstein 21/113 => 21 x 113 + 1 x 75 Rookie score = 2,448
Jacobs 22/101 => 22 x 101 + 0 x 75 Rookie scores = 2,222
Now you have to decide when that saved money will be used towards an upgrade. Let's use round 6 for an example. In an ideal world you'd use every dollar, and get a return equal to about 1 point every $5,000 for every week that it is used. We don't live in an ideal World, and you won't achieve 100% efficiency with that money. Let's assume you achieve 70% efficiency, and just to make it simple, let's also assume your upgrade target plays in each of the 16 games after you trade him in.
So, Cotchin for Beams:
The price difference is $74,800. 70% of that is $52,360. That divided by $5,000 = 10.472 pts/week.
We have assumed it is 16 gamess so 10.472 x 16 = 167.552.
At the start we had Cotchin at 2,474 and Beams at 2,282: 2,474 - 2,282 =192 points.
So under the example figures given, you are 192 - 167.5 = 24.5 points better off going Cotchin over Beams,
This of course changes if your opinion on those players is different to the example, and your opinion on how efficiently you can safely assume you can use the cash saved.
Let's do the same exercise with Goldstein and Jacobs.
The price difference is $152,200. 70% of that is $106,540. That divided by $5,000 = 21.308 pts/week.
16 games gives us 16 x 21.308 = 340.928.
At the start we had Goldstein on 2,448 for the season, and Jacobs on 2,222
So Goldstein is 226 points in front of Jacobs before we allow for the cash saved.
226 - 340.928 = you are 114.9 points in front for the season if you take Jacobs instead of Goldstein.
Once again, this assumes my made up figures match yours, and the dollars are used at 70%.
Though what I did there may seem complicated to some, it is actually a bit simplistic, as there are other factors to take into account. For example, if you can complete your team without using the dollars saved in the above example, then Goldstein is the better choice. If you are just isolating the 2 players, and you're not sure if you can complete your team without the cash or not, then that is the best method, IMO.
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Thanks for the great response Rowsus, I think with the 4-0-6 structure I'm taking I'll leave Beams out. (Ablett, Pendlebury, Watson, Cotchin + Rookies)
Another question is whether Suckling is too risky to leave out? Haven't seen much of him this pre-season, if he averages 70-80 then I'd be happy to leave him out, but if he goes 85-90+ then I'll have to make at least two trades to bring him back in, or downgrade one of my four premium defenders. Would love your thoughts, cheers!
Another question is whether Suckling is too risky to leave out? Haven't seen much of him this pre-season, if he averages 70-80 then I'd be happy to leave him out, but if he goes 85-90+ then I'll have to make at least two trades to bring him back in, or downgrade one of my four premium defenders. Would love your thoughts, cheers!
To be honest, I haven't had Suckling in my team once this season, so I may not be the best to ask. Stepping stone type players have to score near as damn it to Keeper scores to be worthwhile, and I'm not confident in him doing that. If he can't, you are better off finding a Rookie, and using the extra cash elsewhere,
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