Opinion Questions For Rowsus

tracygrims · 25 Mar 2014

I started last year without Ablett or Pendlebury, but instead with JPK, Cox, Goddard and Dangerfield as captain choices. In several early rounds last year I really suffered especially without Ablett (C) and had to make it a priority to get the man into my team, perhaps comprimising some of my other trades.
As things stand now even if your captain averages 115 you are imediately 10-15 points per game down on the team with Ablett/Pendles locked in, unless you somehow get lucky (or about 100 points off the pace until the first bye). Of course this can be made up with value in other areas and so might not be felt as much, but its still a big negative unless your captain choices are spot on.
As a follow up to the last question; what is your strategy for captaincy, how do you see your captain scoring compared to Ablett/Pendlebury and do you see one of those two coming into your team before or after rd8?
cheers

Rowsus · 26 Mar 2014

tracygrims said:

At the moment, I am calling it a tie. I loopholed Sandi, and even with Ablett in the team, I would have banked his 127. It can become subjective, and you never know for sure if you would have banked the VC score, or gone for Ablett, unless you had Ablett there. There is the potential for a little bit of "swings and roundabouts", but I concede, in general it is better and easier for Captain choices if you have Ablett and/or Pendlebury. It was the one and only factor against my strategy. This week I will probably VC Cotchin, and have Sandi as the back up. Sandi has never played GC, but I think he can handle their Rucks ok. It's a terrible risk having Sandi after your VC, as you risk him getting subbed if your VC fails. That's the thrill of the game, I guess.

As to the question of when I plan to try and get Ablett/Pendlebury/Dangerfield, the simple answer is, their price, and my Rookies prices will determine that. It's terrible to hope for others to have bad luck, so you can succeed, but I find myself in that position. A nice short term injury, with an early sub out, that costs them 2 or 3 games would be perfect for me. Who knows? Maybe I could get real lucky, and it happens to 2 of them!

Juzzo · 26 Mar 2014

Hi Rowsus,

In the second week of round 1, was waiting to see if McCarthy got a gig, he did. I really wanted him in my forward line, so I swung caddy to mids and dropped of a rookie, I think Templeton by memory (I have so many mid rookies, it's hard to keep track of). Question being should I look to swing caddy back to forward line and drop off Impey or JKH, then import another rookie to mids this week or keep team as is until next week? Or can you see other astute options?

My team
DEF: langdon, simpson, dunn, shaw H, mitchell, mcdonald (langford, georgiou)
MID: ablett, pendles, fyfe, tyson, polec, dunstan, caddy, michie (ellis, aish)
RUCK: sandy, cox (thurlow, currie)
FOR: roughy, danger, martin, dahlhaus, Pav, McCarthy (Impey, JKH)

My team did well this week, 2309
$70,200 in kitty.

Thank you, advice appeciated.

Rowsus · 26 Mar 2014

Juzzo said:

Hi Juzzo, well done on your first round score.
My first choice is to tell you to just sit on it this week. I'm not sure there are any Rookies you don't have that we can be confident about there JS. Obviously, the further we get into the season, the more we know. Even one or two weeks make a difference.
If you feel you have to do something, the Rookie I'd be looking for that you don't have is Laidler. This would involve JKH/Impey out, Caddy down to Fwd, Langdon down to Mid, and Laidler in. This option wasn't available last season, but apparantly is this season. I don't think Laidler is a must have, and I really think even though Impey/JKH look a bit shakey, all the sub $150k Rookies look shakey except for 3 that you already have.

Juzzo · 26 Mar 2014

Rowsus said:

Hi Juzzo, well done on your first round score.
My first choice is to tell you to just sit on it this week. I'm not sure there are any Rookies you don't have that we can be confident about there JS. Obviously, the further we get into the season, the more we know. Even one or two weeks make a difference.
If you feel you have to do something, the Rookie I'd be looking for that you don't have is Laidler. This would involve JKH/Impey out, Caddy down to Fwd, Langdon down to Mid, and Laidler in. This option wasn't available last season, but apparantly is this season. I don't think Laidler is a must have, and I really think even though Impey/JKH look a bit shakey, all the sub $150k Rookies look shakey except for 3 that you already have.

Thanks Rowsus, will sit this week see how Laidler goes.

Monya Meow Meow · 31 Mar 2014

Hi Rowsus, it's been awhile since I've last consulted you on trades

Thanks for all the help you've given me last year but here I am again, with my worst ever ranking in my short SC history (2nd year blues perhaps).
So obviously there are some issues that I need to deal with this week before 2014 becomes a total nightmare for me.
I've identified 3 major concerns across my team but with only 2 trades, I need to tread carefully.

1. Defense
I've got Mitchell and Enright, both of whom may or may not play this week. Depending on team selections, should I trade either out for Swallow? I don't like to sideways trade but Swallow's last 2 games has gotten me enticed and he has a low B/E. My other defenders at the moment are Hanley, Simpson, Suckling, McDonald, Langford, Georgiou and Langdon (DPP) in the mids. If I don't trade in Swallow and if both Mitchell and Enright don't play, I would be playing 3 rookies and Suckling on field, risky risky...

2. Midfield
No major concerns except for the fact that I wanna try and bring in Tyson. Looks very good in the guts for Melbourne and with such a low B/E, will definitely rise in price nicely. If I don't bring him in this round, I would have missed the boat I reckon? If I do, who goes from my team? I am looking at either Michie or Crouch.

3. Forward
Looking very weak at the moment with Pavlich, Gunston, Rohan (F6), Impey (B) and JKH (B). The person I am looking at trading in is no other than Zorko. Again, should I sideways trade either Pav or Gunston to Zorko? Doesn't sound like a good idea but both are seriously under-performing. I might be able to do Rohan to Zorko (the most ideal) but that depends on my other trade from above.

So in terms of priority, which 2 options should I be looking at? Have $81,900 in the bank.
Thanks mate!

sangkuriang · 31 Mar 2014

Alright Rowsus, reluctant to call on your wisdom again but desperate times call for desperate measures...

So I have 60000 in the bank. After two rounds it's clear the team I have is not up to the task. There are a few problems in no particular order:

Ziebell (watched him live in what was a truly awful game yesterday). Another spud score, due to drop like a stone, dragging my midfield down.

Jack really didn't think I would have a problem with him but he's started poorly. My near-selection of Barlow is really costing me. Think it is right to stick by Jack though

Hurn at least I have bench coverage but the bench coverage is Clay Cameron. Also reliant on Clurey getting a recall. Is the consensus 2 weeks out ok, 3 or 4 is too long?

Cripps and Tippett - at this point non playing rookies, although I feel this will change at some point, and hasn;t caused any donuts as yet.

Impey and JKH spluttering a little, creating excessive reliance on Marshmellow Higgins

The backline is far weaker than my mids, so the way I see it I could go:

Hurn up to superpremium with favourable pre-bye draw (I already have McV, Bartel)

Ziebell down to Wines/Thomas/Gaff

Does that sound sensible under these trying circumstances?

sangkuriang · 31 Mar 2014

I'm sure there will be lots of SOS calls this round so thanks in advance Rowsus.

Rowsus · 31 Mar 2014

Hi MMM,
like an awful lot of teams, myself included, you are facing a trading dilemma this week.
Don't let Swallows low B/E influence your decision too much. The only thing that should influence you there is, do you believe he will be a top 8-10 Defender, from here to the end of the season? If yes, and Mitchell/Enright are missing, then it is a potentially viable trade. If you don't think Swallow can be a top 8-10 Defender for the last 21 rounds, then don't even consider him.
Tyson is definitely "now or never". It would seem crazy to get him after this week, when his price should rise about $80k. He would then become a $300k player you are hoping will score 100/week. Good value, and will still make good Money, but you missed the cream on the cake.
The Zorko question reads exactly the same as the Swallow question above. Do you believe he will be a top 8-10 Forward for the last 21 rounds?
Keep in mind, both Swallow and Zorko will be potentially affected by players returning to their teams, and possibly altering their role and/or scoring.
So if the answers are: Yes, I want him, and Yes, what do you do?
You need to do reverse the question, and go through the same process. ie Are the players you taking out, players that should be taken out?
In the cases of Mitchell/Enright, long term the answer is probably no. They should both be right up there in the list of best defenders between rounds 3 and 23, even if they miss this week.
Michie out, or Crouch out. There is no positively right answer here. Michie has been disappointing, and is potentially looking at vests, or being dropped, but should at least make some money. Crouch has the potential to become Couch from 2012. Lots of promise, but you could end waiting the Whole season waiting for him to get picked. There are two dangers picking placeholding Rookies. One they never get picked, and you have wasted a spot. Two, if they finally do get picked, you potentially miss a downgrade option later in the season. So which problem do you fix? As I said, no positively right answer here.
Pavlich, Gunston, Rohan. Who is the most likely to fill the role they were originally picked for, from here? My answer would be Pavlich. The wet conditions did him no favours on the weekend. Gunston is speculative, and is possibly picking up Buddy's Defender now Buddy is gone. Rohan is Rohan. He is a 60-65 point player, that will never make more than $150k.
If you believe Mitchell/Enright can still fill a strong role, then Mitchell/Enright ---> Swallow is too sideways.
This leaves you, if you answered Yes, I want him, Yes, with only one choice! Trading either of Pavlich/Gunston to Zorko won't give you enough cash to do Crouch ---> Tyson, so your trades seem to be:
Michie ---> Tyson
Pavlich/Gunston ---> Zorko.
Given Pavlich has good history, even though he is "old", I'd keep him over the speculative Gunston.
Good luck.

Monya Meow Meow · 31 Mar 2014

Very well said Row, at the end of the day it is still up to me if I think either player will end up as the top 8-10 for their respective positions.
I have one question in regards to Swallow. I admit I never gave him much thought during the pre-season because I felt he wouldn't be in the top 8 bracket. But after 2 games, he seems to be scoring quite well.

1. Was it because he was playing mainly in the mids?
2. If he was, was it because the Suns are missing some players, eg. Bennell?

I think that will go a long way in answering my own doubts.
Thanks!

Bontempele · 31 Mar 2014

Hey Rowsus, really stuck on my trades here after Hurn's injury.

I have to trade in Tyson i think as he set to make 250k +.

To afford him instead of Michie, I need at least 30k.

My original thought was either Buddy to Zorko or Rohan to Ambrose.

But now Hurn is gone for 4-6 weeks, what do I do? Maybe hold for a week and then trade?

I already have Swallow. It's slim pickings from there.

My other option is to downgrade Daisy to Tyson instead and then upgrade Hurn to someone like Hanley or Mcveigh?

Rowsus · 31 Mar 2014

sangkuriang said:

Hi sang,
yes, you do appear to have some problems. Not the least is your Def Rookies. Cameron will be a slow burn $120k Rookie, but at least has some JS. Clurey and Tippett might be lucky to see 5 games for the season! Add in your Hurn problem, plus Boak, Jack, Ziebell, Cameron J, Wood, Cripps P and there's a few things to be fixed. It's all a learning experience, and even Jay would say he learns things each season. Picking Rookies that are not selected in round 1, and are over $125k is too risky (Wood, Cripps), also picking KPP's without a good history of scoring well is too risky (Cameron J). Lessons to learn for next year.
It's not over for you yet, though. It's a matter of identifying the problems that need fixing first, and this week it looks like you back line.
There are too many question marks over Hurn now for him to be carried through. Even if he comes back in 2-3 weeks, the potential has risen for him to miss more games down the track. So Hurn out gives you $533,800 in the bank, and a gap to fill. If you had only 2 or 3 problems to fix, you would probably avoid speculation picks, but seeing as you have a few to fix, you might need to speculate on one or two of the solutions. Your choices to replace Hurn appear to be Dunn, Swallow, Burgoyne, Hanley, Murphy or if you really want to speculate, Mays. You want to be picking a player you can carry through the season, with some confidence. Hanley and Murphy will cost you too much, Burgoynes history would suggest he is flavour of the month. Mays good scores are on the back of low possession counts with no goals, to me that = unsustainable. Dunn is benefitting from Melbournes overuse of the ball in Defence, Swallow is looking good, but will it continue for both? M Johnson form Freo has a history of being just outside the best Defs, so is also worth looking at. Those 3 cost between 430k and 469k leaving you between 60k and 100k. In your situation, I'd go for Swallow.
Given the number of problems you have, you might need to show some faith with some of your pre-season selections, like Ziebell. If you think he is injured, or just not worth the risk, then take him out. You have all the main Mid Cash cows, except for Dunstan. I'm not sure he is a must have, but you could potentially go Ziebell to Dunstan, and gives you some cash for further fix ups next week. That would still leave you with no back up in Defence with Clurey and Tippett on your pine. I think I'd go Tippett to McDonald. He looks to have good JS now, and should make some cash. The other option is Ziebell out, Langdon to Mid, McDonald in.
It's a tough few weeks you face, but you do have some options. Good luck

dyii · 31 Mar 2014

Hey Rowsus! Had a shocking week dropping 2388>1883, I've finally convinced myself it was bad luck and won't make rash decisions.

Only players I'm concerned with are Roughead and Pavlich, both key forwards. Roughead looked really slow against the Essendon game, saw him walking around a fair bit. In the game before he was spoonfed ~4 goals which boosted his disappointing score to 117. I'm not sure if there's something wrong with him or just a bad patch of form, but with Zorko coming up looking the goods and averaging 100 before, I may pull the trigger.

Also, got Crouch sitting on my bench after two weeks of forgetting to trade him to Cunningham, would you trade Michie>Cunningham or Crouch>Cunningham? As you've said Michie has been very disappointing.

Rowsus · 31 Mar 2014

Monya Meow Meow said:

I think there is no doubt he has benefitted form Bennell being out. He has had more Mid time because of that, and it will be interesting to see what happens when he comes back. The fate of Swallow and Zorko will be interesting from here. Getting them right could be the key to a good season. I'm just not sure whether getting them right involves getting them, or ignoring them as flavours of the month types. Getting them could result in 2-3 wasted trades each, if they need correcting later. Not getting them at their current low price could result in deep regret later on. It's decisions like these that make or break a season.

Rowsus · 31 Mar 2014

Footyrulz said:

Hey Footy,
Thomas to Tyson seems a Little knee-jerky. Thomas' last game was ok.
Have you considered a Melbourne Defender? Melbourne are having about 280 possessions in the backline each week, and while outside of Rookies, they are a useless team for Mid, Forward and Ruck SC players, I can see one or two of their Defenders finishing top 10-12 for the season, just from their overuse of the ball back there. I'd consider Dunn, or Terlich for Hurn, and then Michie to Tyson.
Good luck

Rowsus · 31 Mar 2014

dyii said:

Hey dyii,
it's a really tough call on Zorko. Is he the real deal? Or is he just in rare form, that could just as quickly disappear? I don't know the answer to that. I do know, if you think he will average 100 for the season, that he will only average 96 from here. something to think about. It has the ring of a regrettable trade to it, but it might also be inspired. Only time will tell. If you decide to jump, I'd keep Roughie, and use Pavlich.
Of those two choices, I'd either go Crouch ---> Cunningham, or just wait and see if Michie is vested or dropped.
I'd tend to do nothing for the moment, but if you have to act, let Michie's selection fate be the decider for you.
Good luck

Zim^zuM · 31 Mar 2014

Rowsus said:

its been my line of thinking with swallow. Byes were a factor for not selecting him, and despite his two scores his bye remains the same. I'd rather him really prove he is worth it and pay for what he is scoring later after his bye. He may be 150k more expensive, but so will langdon, langford, mcdonald etc.

PowerBrokers · 31 Mar 2014

Hi Rowsus,

I want to pick your brain with what's the best long term decision to make for my team.

This is my team:
Defenders: McVeigh, Mitchell, Hurn, Swallow, McDonald, Langdon, Langford, Clurey
Midfielders: Ablett, Pendlebury, Liberatore, Beams, Tyson, Polec, Ellis, Cunningham, Dunstan, Mitchie
Rucks: Ryder, Sandilands, Thurlow, Derickx
Forwards: Dangerfield, Martin, Roughhead, T Mitchell, Pavlich, Impey, JKH, L Taylor

My question is what two trades should I make?
I'm pretty happy with all my rookies except for Clurey (but I've been using him as my floating donut) and JKH (who has been disappointing for all)
Hurn is injured for 3-4 weeks, and Ryder & Mitchell could come back this week.

These are the players I want out:
1) Hurn
2) Ryder
3) Roughhead

These are the players I want in:
1) Zorko
2) Mumford

I am seriously considering ignoring my backline woes and making the ruck & forward trades based on the below:
Ryder scores a 90 this round he comes back - he's dropping $30,000
Mumford scores a 120 this round - he's increasing $50,000
Roughhead scores a 100 this round - he's dropping $22,000
Zorko scores a 100 this round - he's increasing $50,000

The way I look at it, I stand to gain $150,000 from these two trades, and I obtain the 2 best-in-form players who will be Top 6 for the rest of the season *barring injury*, AND will further increase in value in the next weeks.

Am I crazy for ignoring my backline?

Santoz · 31 Mar 2014

Hi Rowsus,

I have Ryder in my team who hasn't been playing well at all as a lone Ruck before his injury. Having rolled his ankle, this has forced my hand. I already have Sandilands in my team and was considering getting in Mumford before his rise although I'm not convinced either player will last the season uninjured. Mummy hasn't played a full year in ages and I don't want him sitting on my bench for extended periods. I could downgrade to Hickey and pocket some cash although don't know how he will play sore. I don't want to burn a trade getting rid of him in a weeks time if he's going to hit the bench.

I also have Michie and need to upgrade to Tyson. I have 60k so could do Ryder>Mumford & Michie>Tyson comfortably & then sit back and not trade until my rookies have appreciated.

Another theory I have is to swap Ryder to Currie and back him in for 4 or 5 rounds to hold his spot. One of he, Thurlow or Dericx would have to start on field for that period, possibly losing me 200 points over this period overall. (Assuming Mumford averages 100 & Rookie averages 50)

After this time period however, I'd have 400k in the bank and a litany of cheaper backs returning from injury or poor scores (Hurn, Enright & maybe Simpson).

My forwards are set: Danger, Martin, Wingard, T Mitchell, Zorko & Walters so I don't need to upgrade them in the near future.

But my backs are where I'm hurting: Bartel, McVeigh, Mitchell, Kolo, McDonald, Langdon, Langford, Georgiou. I'm presuming the rookie backs will be near the chopping block by this period of time and have outlived their usefulness bar McDonald. At this point in time I'm hoping they would have appreciated in price around 100-150k each, thus creating an opportunity to use 2 trades to bring in 2 premium defenders at around Round 6 or 7. I'm hoping, that they would make up the 200 points by the bye rounds.

The other upside to this strategy is that I'm not risking Mumford or Hickey, who could become injured, forcing me to use a rookie ruck in their place anyway if they do so. If Sandilands goes down during this time, I'm stuffed, but so will be 70% of the competition anyway.

I'm also hoping that Goldstein is affected by his shoulder, with the aim of turning a ruck rookie & rookie mid into him after the bye too as his scoring is well down on years previous so far.

So, thanks for reading my aggressive strategy. Thoughts?

Bontempele · 31 Mar 2014

Rowsus said:

Thanks Rowsus, I'm not really keen on trading Daisy, though not too sure about the Melbourne guys. Who knows what will happen to them.

What do u think about Jaench? Then i could trade Lemmens instead of Michie.

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

tracygrims

250 Games Club

Rowsus

Statistician

Juzzo

Rowsus

Statistician

Juzzo

Monya Meow Meow

sangkuriang

sangkuriang

Rowsus

Statistician

Monya Meow Meow

Bontempele

Rowsus

Statistician

dyii

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Zim^zuM

PowerBrokers

Santoz

Bontempele