Questions for Rowsus

Rowsus · 6 Jul 2013

Hi Polarbear,
sorry for the late reply, I only got up about 10 mins ago (it's 7.40am here in Denmark).
It's a tough one, and in circumstances like this, I think it is best to look at recent form/situation, rather than season averages.
It's too late to be of use, but I would have traded out Vlastuin in your situation. He was looking tired, and in need of last weeks rest. For young guys, that's not a good sign. Terlich is starting to look better than Goodes lately, if I had my time over, I would have kept him and traded Goodes and kept Terlich.
Sorry it was all too late, but my trade out order was: Vlastuin, Goodes, Terlich.
I hope it worked out for you, which ever way you jumped.

OzRulesFootball · 6 Jul 2013

Gary Ablett on field as (C) Pendles as (VC).... Pendles scored big as we know
You have time before Gold Coast plays to either move Gazza off if you wanted to but with Pendles scoring 154 you let him stay and use rolling lockout loopholes so Pendles becomes effective scoring captain for weekend with 308.
You can also switch the (E) on your bench players to the most likely higher scorer off the two. Now the tricky part for me was instead off having 2 scoring players on bench you have a specific player you chose in round 1 to basically never play and use to exploit loopholes but he never rises in price and now you don't have option of switching E and left with whatever the emergency scores to replace Ablett. Is the purposely chosen non-player to exploit loopholes going to be worth it in long run when things like this can work against you and the player is one less player that can make you money and score in your squad of 30.
Given the odds of random injuries and players not playing from your squad happens naturally at various stages of season and can use at times as loopholes, when opportunity presents itself, is the option of specifically picking players not likely to play all season and use them to exploit loopholes worth it ?

Interested in your thoughts and any formula with the many variables involved that can shed more light on this.

I pose this question because in trying to exploit loopholes I always expected if you focused on it almost too much it could also bite you at times as the need to be alert throughout all 23 weekends of rolling lockout is quite a challenge and has some risks at times as we are seeing this weekend.

Clearly I'm not in it but still interested if rolling lockout still exists next year and all the possibilities involved for those going for overall prizes and remain in running.

Rowsus · 6 Jul 2013

OzRulesFootball said:

You can tell when someone is passionate about something, when they write really long sentences. Especially if they have no commas! 39, 59, 56 word sentences without commas tells me ORF is passionate about this!

There is no easy answer, or writable formula to cover this. My own thoughts are: Yes, Coaches that concentrate on it too much will probably give back nearly as much as they gain. I think the best approach is to pick one FD that you actually hope gets picked for games by mid season. Use him for loopholing early, and when natural attrition gives you multiple players missing, you just use them. If your FD can then fluke a few games, and a bit of coin, it's a bonus. Keeping one player in your Mid, that you are 90% certain won't play would seem to risky. It doesn't allow enough coverage, for the inevitable injuries and suspensions, let alone the byes. You can over exploit the loopholes, and get away with it some weeks, but it will eventually come back and bite you on the bum!

OzRulesFootball · 6 Jul 2013

Rowsus said:

lol... yeah, thanks, was only half joking about the formula idea as know it would be extra tricky.

My gut feel tells me it is so hard to know for sure either way. Lap of SC Gods I guess for most part....

Polarbear · 6 Jul 2013

Rowsus said:

Hi Polarbear,
sorry for the late reply, I only got up about 10 mins ago (it's 7.40am here in Denmark).
It's a tough one, and in circumstances like this, I think it is best to look at recent form/situation, rather than season averages.
It's too late to be of use, but I would have traded out Vlastuin in your situation. He was looking tired, and in need of last weeks rest. For young guys, that's not a good sign. Terlich is starting to look better than Goodes lately, if I had my time over, I would have kept him and traded Goodes and kept Terlich.
Sorry it was all too late, but my trade out order was: Vlastuin, Goodes, Terlich.
I hope it worked out for you, which ever way you jumped.

Wish I read this sooner Rowsus. Ended up trading Terlich. Big fail. Now with Hanley doing well I will not be able to straight swap Vlaustin to Hanley.

Maso · 8 Jul 2013

Oh Great one , shaw vs hanely from here on out ?

Prochard · 8 Jul 2013

Hey Rowsus,
I'm trying to find an ultra premium in mid to replace Watson. I'm currently looking at griffen/Barlow/Dangerfield, while ignoring Cotchin/Deledio/Kennedy for tag/role reasons. Who should I go for? Cash shouldn't be too muc of a problem, as I have 250k in the bank now, and I can downgrade shuey to a donut any time. THanks

Rowsus · 8 Jul 2013

Maso said:

SC Gold says Shaw will score 112.6 from here, I'm guessing it will be more like 105-107.
SC Gold says Hanley will score 76.9 from here, I'm guessing it will be more like 94-96.
Either way you look at it, unless you can make around 15/game improvement somewhere else, with the $142,100 price difference, then you need to take Shaw. Making a 15/game improvement in any line can be tough, in a finalised team.
Let's use my figures (only because they are closer together than SCG's).
Shaw is more likely to miss a game than Hanley. He has missed 15 games since 2011, and Hanley has missed 1!
If Shaw misses 3 games, and you get Clisby's 65 to replace him in those games, his P.I.T. average falls to 94.7.
So you can see on my figures, Shaw has to miss 3 games for Hanley to be better than him. Though if you can make 10/game out of the price difference, then Hanley beats Shaw, if Shaw misses 2 games.
Bottom line - Shaw.

Maso · 8 Jul 2013

Rowsus said:

SC Gold says Shaw will score 112.6 from here, I'm guessing it will be more like 105-107.
SC Gold says Hanley will score 76.9 from here, I'm guessing it will be more like 94-96.
Either way you look at it, unless you can make around 15/game improvement somewhere else, with the $142,100 price difference, then you need to take Shaw. Making a 15/game improvement in any line can be tough, in a finalised team.
Let's use my figures (only because they are closer together than SCG's).
Shaw is more likely to miss a game than Hanley. He has missed 15 games since 2011, and Hanley has missed 1!
If Shaw misses 3 games, and you get Clisby's 65 to replace him in those games, his P.I.T. average falls to 94.7.
So you can see on my figures, Shaw has to miss 3 games for Hanley to be better than him. Though if you can make 10/game out of the price difference, then Hanley beats Shaw, if Shaw misses 2 games.
Bottom line - Shaw.

thanks that helps - watson > selwood & staker > shaw team set little weak in ruck but nicholls should play rest of season at least .

Rowsus · 8 Jul 2013

Prochard said:

The man with the $5.3 million Midfield!

9.5 Premiums, counting Mitchell as a half Premium, and a loose definition on Shuey, Mundy, Fyfe and Priddis as full Premiums.

At the moment you have Watson and Shuey injured on your bench, and Mundy, Fyfe, Priddis and Mitchell T as M5-8. I'm not sure side-trading Watson to another Premium will give you the same or better benefit that upgrading one of your Rucks (Blicavs, Nicholls R2/3) might. I'm sure your probably aware of that, so I will go back to your original question.
I think it's an easy answer, but I'm sure others will have other thoughts.
Barlow was in incredible form before his injury - 119, 138, 141, 115, 151 - a 5 game average of 133, where he was averaging 102 before those games.
Griffen was/is also in hot form. Before his 107 "failure" against GWS - 136, 176, 129, 143, 148 - averaging 146, against his average of 111 before that.
Dangerfield has averaged 130 in his last 5, including a 97. He has 8 out of 14 at 120+, 8 of his last 11 at 120+. He has averaged 126.4 since round 3, which puts him in very elite company. The other two have had hot periods, but their history says that is exactly what they are, hot streaks. Danger in the last 2 seasons has shown he can score high, over a long period of games. He may lack as many WOW games as Griffen, but he will beat him on the consistency factor.
If you have to side trade Watson, I'd go to Dangerfield. He is fast becoming the most consistent performer behind Gaj and Pendles.

brad182 · 8 Jul 2013

Hey Rowsus, i have the same problem with offloading Watson.
My midfield currently stands as: ABLETT, SWAN, GRIFFIN, BARLOW, WATSON, STANTON, DANGERFIELD, STEVIE J(DPP LINK), t MITCHELL and CROUCH
I'm looking at ROK or MUNDY, playing great footy. Obviously Selwood is getting a look at but, a lot of teams have him and i feel another POD would be handy.
Thoughts on who the best player to bring in would be?
Mundy scares me a little with Freo's easy draw and may be rested due to that injury he sustained earlier this year?
cheers

Prochard · 8 Jul 2013

Rowsus said:

The man with the $5.3 million Midfield!

9.5 Premiums, counting Mitchell as a half Premium, and a loose definition on Shuey, Mundy, Fyfe and Priddis as full Premiums.

At the moment you have Watson and Shuey injured on your bench, and Mundy, Fyfe, Priddis and Mitchell T as M5-8. I'm not sure side-trading Watson to another Premium will give you the same or better benefit that upgrading one of your Rucks (Blicavs, Nicholls R2/3) might. I'm sure your probably aware of that, so I will go back to your original question.
I think it's an easy answer, but I'm sure others will have other thoughts.
Barlow was in incredible form before his injury - 119, 138, 141, 115, 151 - a 5 game average of 133, where he was averaging 102 before those games.
Griffen was/is also in hot form. Before his 107 "failure" against GWS - 136, 176, 129, 143, 148 - averaging 146, against his average of 111 before that.
Dangerfield has averaged 130 in his last 5, including a 97. He has 8 out of 14 at 120+, 8 of his last 11 at 120+. He has averaged 126.4 since round 3, which puts him in very elite company. The other two have had hot periods, but their history says that is exactly what they are, hot streaks. Danger in the last 2 seasons has shown he can score high, over a long period of games. He may lack as many WOW games as Griffen, but he will beat him on the consistency factor.
If you have to side trade Watson, I'd go to Dangerfield. He is fast becoming the most consistent performer behing Gaj and Pendles.

Thanks Rowsus, a delightful response as always.
Looks like I'm going to go with dangerfield at this stage, and waiting for pavlich/sandilands to dorp in price(as you've pointed out

)
Let's just hope dangerfield doesn't get knocked out by some big guy this time...

Rowsus · 9 Jul 2013

brad182 said:

Hi brad182,
quite often the answers to questions like this depend a lot on knowing the whole situation:
What are you trying to achieve, high ranking or league victory?
How much cash do you have, and is any of it earmarked for other upgrades? etc etc .......

I'm going to take a stab, and if I'm wrong then just let me know, and I'll take another go at it!

By your selections of ROK and Mundy, I'm guessing you've got around $30k to aid in this trade.
I'll also guess that, while you would like to finish as high as you can in the rankings, sticking to a few mates in your League would be pretty good too!

Using MarkM's wonderful piece of work, I can see you have one major POD already. Stanton is in only 16 of the top 1,000 teams, 0 of the top 100 teams, and 2.2% of teams overall. SJ would also be a POD in the Midfield, but that really depends on what you have done with that "extra" spot in the Fwd line.

So let's see what POD's are available under $560k - most expensive listed first.

R'OK - $555,500 - in 15/1000, 0/100, 2.1% overall
Goes big against weak opposition, and doesn't miss games. (Only missed 3 games the last 9 years!!!). Averaging 87 in draws and losses this season, 112 in wins 1-44pts and 131 in wins 45+pts. Has 4 easy games in the last 8, but then finishes the season with Geelong and Hawthorn. He's a good pick for an overall finish, but a bad pick for Leagues. He will probably struggle a little Prelim and GF weeks for SC.
SC Gold have him averaging 118.5 from here, I think it will be around 112, but might have 2 sub 100's last 2 games.

Jack K - $555,300 - in 153/1000, 18/100, 5.2% overall
Doesn't go as large as R'OK, but probably beats him on consistency. 2 shockers this year, 2 ordinary/bad games, and 10 games 114+! Obviously has the same SC finals draw as R'OK, but this season is going better in tough games than R'OK so makes more SC final appeal. He's actually averaging more in loss/draw (117) than he is in wins (110)! Has similar ownership numbers to Mundy, so just as POD'ish as him, but probably a better option.
SC Gold have him averaging 115.9 from here, I think it will be around 114, and will go around 105 in the last 2 games.

Montagna - $544,300 - in 0/1000, 0/100, 1.3% overall
Averaging 108.5 so far this season, and his history says that's no fluke, but no one wants him! 126 in 2009, 115 in 2010 had him in the top 4 players in SC those years!!! 3 bad games this season, but the rest ok. Has 4 easy games, and 3 tough ones in the run home. 7/13 have been 110+ this year, which is useful. StK's last games are GC and Fremantle, both at ES, so he might outscore R'OK in those important finals.
SC Gold have him averaging 99.8 from here, but I'll back him for better. I'll say closer to 108, and could go 120 and105 in the last 2 games.

Mundy - $534,600 - 128/1000, 19/100, 4.4% overall
Has always just been that 5 or 10 points shy of genuine Premium status, and can miss games. Has a great draw in the final 4 games, so good for SC finals. Probably the one to take, if League is your goal, but falls just behind Jack in all the numbers if overall is your aim.
SC Gold have him averaging 115.8, I think it will be more like 110, even with the easy draw. Last 2 games could be around 115-120.

McVeigh, Bennell, Sloane and Redden could also be considered, depending on how much of a POD you want.

If overall is your aim, and 5% is a big enough POD, I'd go Jack. If it's not big enough, I'd punt on Montagna.
If League is your goal, and 5% is a big enough POD, I'd have Mundy just in front of Jack. If it's not big enough, it's probably Montagna again, though Bennell's draw migh be worth looking at, too!
Bennell: Rich, Coll, Carl, WC, Melb, Port, StK, Giants - it's probably the sweetest SC finals draw you can get!
Good luck

tracygrims · 9 Jul 2013

brad182 said:

Even though Rowsus has answered this one I would like to offer a different answer..

To me your midfield is missing one big thing : a black and white bird that has begins with P, but is not a penguin... Despite being 100k more expensive - if you have enough cash or trades:
Watson > Pendles

to me 100k is worth the +15-20 points per game you will get out of Pendlebury over any other mid you don't already have..

Rowsus · 9 Jul 2013

tracygrims said:

Definitely agree with you, Tracy. I just didn't suggest him, as brad182 said he wanted a POD. I'm guessing one of the reasons he wants a POD is, that he can't afford the P-man!

tracygrims · 9 Jul 2013

Rowsus said:

Yep, more information is required to give a proper answer..

To be honest though, I haven't seen a midfield as good as that one in any SC team this year, which I think is a good enough POD in itself. If Watson hadn't got injured and Stanton was traded for Pendlebury it would be the best possible midfield for 2013 imho..
*of course for overall team structure you'd want SJ in the forwards which raffles the M8 spot for one of three Swans, two Tigers, a Hawk, a Saint or a Cat..

Creeker · 9 Jul 2013

Earth calling Rowsus, (once again, and sorry to bother you)
Mad keen to recruit Stevie J into the team this week, fit, rested and should play out the season if he doesn't belt anyone else.
Have only 3 trade options for Stevie J and they may seem a luxury trade but when Stevie goes big, he goes real big.

Rockliff. Has been dissapointing recently by being made to play foward. Moloney seems to of screwed him over for time in the midfield.

Buddy. Got him cheap so hasn't really let me down, worried if I let him go he will come out and bag 12.

JJK. Cant fault him at all for what I paid for him and still going strongly. Have a hunch with winter setting in, this could effect tall marking fowards.

Don't have to worry about a detailed explanation Rowsus as I know you have better things to do than help me with my trade.
Leaning towards Rockliff but would value your opinion.
Thanks in advance.

Prochard · 9 Jul 2013

Hey Rowsus!!!
Recently Ive been extremely tempted by Steve Johnson playing Melbourne..... I know last time i traded buddy in and made him captain against Melbourne backfired on me, but this is just too enticing. I'm thinking about going Watson>barlow and nic too/dustin martin to Steve Jonhson this week. I'm aware that it's not advised to chase after scores like this, but should I do it?

davo · 9 Jul 2013

Hey Rowsus been loving your work , 3 trades left and would appreciate your advice .
Heres my team ,
Def: Goddard Gibbs Hanley Hartlett Pearce Vlastuin (thurlow wilson)
Mid: Ablett Pendles Swan Danger WATSON J P Kennedy Fyfe Selwood(T Mitchell Cam Rich)
Ruck:Cox Nicholls (blicavs currie)
Fwd: Nic nat SJ Martin Rockliff Franklin Cloke (staker b kennedy)
$56k in bank
My trade plans are Watson >Shaw/Ibbotson/H Taylor/McKensie swinging vlastin to mid leaning towards Taylor, T Mitchell becomes my M8
Thurlow>X Richards/McBean
Vlastuin/Blicavs>Pavlich leaning towards tradin out vlastuin which will give me mid/fwd link
Currently sitting just out side top 5000 so main aim is to win my cash league and make finals in div 3.

So i guess my question's are which defender should i pick ,if i pick shaw and vlastin plays will i be able to afford pavlich, which structure do you think is better mid /fwd link or ruck/fwd and is this the path you would take or would you just trade watson and hold final 2 trades .I had planned to get to this position with a few more trades in hand but injuries to Birchall ,Reilly and Watson in consecutive weeks has reduced my options.

Anyway hope this all makes sense would appreciate your feedback.
Anyone else's opinions are appreciated too

Cheers Davo

Monya Meow Meow · 9 Jul 2013

Good day Rowsus! Love all your suggestions so thought maybe you could help my team

DEF: Goddard/Heppell/Shaw/Gibbs/Goodes/Staker/Duffield/Saunders
MID: Gazza/Pendles/Jobe/JPK/Barlow/Fyfe/Priddis/Jelwood/Mitchell/Hrovat
RUC: Minson/Cox/Blicavs/Nicholls
FWD: JJK/Bartel/Dusty/Buddy/Rocky/Nic Nat/Caff/McBean

(7 trades and $143,000 left)

I have a few thoughts but not sure how to go about making them into trades.

1. Jobe Watson has to go for sure
2. Blicavs should go before he starts bleeding money, could swap for a FWD using McBean DPP
3. Very interested in bringing in Stevie J, either through MID or FWD
4. Interested in bringing in Hanley to complete my DEF
5. Should I be holding onto Duffield? Goodes and Staker look reliable enough as a D6

Somehow if you could help me turn the above 5 points into trades, I would be most grateful. Or perhaps there is some other player that I should be looking at.

Thanks mate!

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