Questions for Rowsus
- Thread starter Grant
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Oh I know the issues - currently I am looking at bringing in Mackie...sad really, but there don't seem to be better options in the price range 
Apologies for continuing the hijack Rowsus.
Apologies for continuing the hijack Rowsus.
Watts was actually my 5th choice to Demolished, behind keeping Duffield as the first option.
He's not a high, or strong recommendation. I just think his circumstances have changed, and he's playing with hunger and confidence again. You can see a difference just looking at him on the field. Whether it is a new Coach, or he realises he is playing for his AFL future, he's a new man. His 2 scores don't make a season, but if you only have limited funds, and you want him, you have to jump soon. He does have the problem, in that he thrives on confidence, we never know when that confidence bubble will burst.
Would I trade him in, if I was sitting in the top 10? Most likely not. Would I consider him as a hail mary hope to make that POD against the teams above me if I was sitting 100th, and was cash strapped? Hell yeah, I'd consider him!
Yeah, no 100+'s for Hartlett since round 5! Big concern, and while you don't need him to average 100, if he's going to average around 95 from here on in, he needs some 100+ score in there.
Beau Waters - he's a huge risk. Great player when he's going....... BUT, let's look at his playing record since 2008.
7 - 2 - 1 - 34 - 18 - 1 - 5 - 14 - 3 - 2 - 13 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 9 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 3 - 2
This is a list of Beau Waters home and away games streaks. The red numbers are missed games. He is currently in his 11th playing streak in the last 6 years. If you take him, you are hoping he can extend his streak to 11 this time. As you can see, he has only managed that twice in his last 10 streaks! WOW! Too risky for me!
While Dixon doesn't have a history for us to run a "Beau Waters" on him, he is a tall guy (more susceptible to recurring injuries) that this season has played 6, missed 4, played 1, missed 2. Even if he is back this week, it has to be ringing alarm bells, and falls into the big risk catagory again.
The question becomes, "what benefit do I gain by trading out Duffman, as compared to loopholing Clisby and Docherty?". Fremantle play after Brisbane and Melbourne in both rounds 15 and 16, Duffman's expected outages, so the loophole can be applied. I'm not sure any of the trades you are contemplating bring enough rewards to burn a trade on them.
Depending on how many trades you have left, there are other strategies to possibly investigate.
Just for one, and you've probably considered it anyway.
Duffield out - Staker up - Xavier Richards in to create link for Staker.
Nicholls to Goldy or Minson.
The advantage with this is, you get to wait a week if you want, so Nicholls and Staker both increase in price again, and you have cash to upgrade someone else, possibly even Staker himself to a more expensive Def than you are looking at now.
There are lots of options, if you have the trades, that seem better than ditching Duffman to someone you're just settling on, rather than you'd be really happy to have.
As to if and when they'll be back, your guess is as good as mine, sorry. My guess is Duffman will be back when they say. He won't be rested, but could possibly miss more games. If Dixon gets back soon, I'm guessing he will either miss more games, or be restricted in some at the least.
Good luck
Beau Waters - he's a huge risk. Great player when he's going....... BUT, let's look at his playing record since 2008.
7 - 2 - 1 - 34 - 18 - 1 - 5 - 14 - 3 - 2 - 13 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 9 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 3 - 2
This is a list of Beau Waters home and away games streaks. The red numbers are missed games. He is currently in his 11th playing streak in the last 6 years. If you take him, you are hoping he can extend his streak to 11 this time. As you can see, he has only managed that twice in his last 10 streaks! WOW! Too risky for me!
While Dixon doesn't have a history for us to run a "Beau Waters" on him, he is a tall guy (more susceptible to recurring injuries) that this season has played 6, missed 4, played 1, missed 2. Even if he is back this week, it has to be ringing alarm bells, and falls into the big risk catagory again.
The question becomes, "what benefit do I gain by trading out Duffman, as compared to loopholing Clisby and Docherty?". Fremantle play after Brisbane and Melbourne in both rounds 15 and 16, Duffman's expected outages, so the loophole can be applied. I'm not sure any of the trades you are contemplating bring enough rewards to burn a trade on them.
Depending on how many trades you have left, there are other strategies to possibly investigate.
Just for one, and you've probably considered it anyway.
Duffield out - Staker up - Xavier Richards in to create link for Staker.
Nicholls to Goldy or Minson.
The advantage with this is, you get to wait a week if you want, so Nicholls and Staker both increase in price again, and you have cash to upgrade someone else, possibly even Staker himself to a more expensive Def than you are looking at now.
There are lots of options, if you have the trades, that seem better than ditching Duffman to someone you're just settling on, rather than you'd be really happy to have.
As to if and when they'll be back, your guess is as good as mine, sorry. My guess is Duffman will be back when they say. He won't be rested, but could possibly miss more games. If Dixon gets back soon, I'm guessing he will either miss more games, or be restricted in some at the least.
Good luck
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That's true, Waters is a massive risk but only misses around 2 games when he's out (like Duffield now...:/)
I believe Dixon would be a massive POD and be a huge bonus to have come SC Finals time. I guess looping Clisby and Docherty is a good idea. I've never used the emergency loophole to advantage unfortunately. I only have 5 trades left so I don't really want to downgrade someone else in order to upgrade elsewhere. I already have 2 premium ruckman so there isn't much of a point in bringing someone else elsewhere. I am considering the Docherty possibly down to X. Richards or possibly even Oxley to swing around Staker as I'm not even playing him now.
Thanks for the help, appreciate it Rowsus!
I believe Dixon would be a massive POD and be a huge bonus to have come SC Finals time. I guess looping Clisby and Docherty is a good idea. I've never used the emergency loophole to advantage unfortunately. I only have 5 trades left so I don't really want to downgrade someone else in order to upgrade elsewhere. I already have 2 premium ruckman so there isn't much of a point in bringing someone else elsewhere. I am considering the Docherty possibly down to X. Richards or possibly even Oxley to swing around Staker as I'm not even playing him now.
Thanks for the help, appreciate it Rowsus!
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Just a few options Rowsus... Dixon wasn't chosen and Docherty was dropped/injured.
Sitting 102nd so need to take risks to get up there. 5 trades and 19k left.
Option 1. Keep Duffield and play Clisby for 2 weeks, no trades.
Option 2. Keep Duffield and trade Docherty (177k) for Oxley (96k), creating 81k extra and DPP link to Staker.
Option 3. Trade Duffield for Mackie/Hartlett, keep Docherty
Option 4. Trade Duffield for Ibbotson/Taylor/R.Murphy and Docherty for Oxley - creating DPP link to Staker.
- not sure Duffield will only have 2 weeks off with his calves.
- not confident with Clisby's JS and scoring capabilities
Sitting 102nd so need to take risks to get up there. 5 trades and 19k left.
Option 1. Keep Duffield and play Clisby for 2 weeks, no trades.
Option 2. Keep Duffield and trade Docherty (177k) for Oxley (96k), creating 81k extra and DPP link to Staker.
Option 3. Trade Duffield for Mackie/Hartlett, keep Docherty
Option 4. Trade Duffield for Ibbotson/Taylor/R.Murphy and Docherty for Oxley - creating DPP link to Staker.
- not sure Duffield will only have 2 weeks off with his calves.
- not confident with Clisby's JS and scoring capabilities
Let's look at your situation/tradeable players line by line (B/E, SC Gold projected score, if selected):
Def: Clisby (B/E -72, 66) (Duffield (B/E 132, 0), Docherty (B/E 16, 0))
Mid: Kennedy B (B/E 74, 51)
Ruck: Nicholls (B/E 17, 87) (Rowe (B/E 41, 62))
Fwd: Rockliff is a potential trade out, but for now, I'd leave him. He is partly anchored because Staker currently sits in your Fwd's.
I agree with your statement about taking risks. Even though you are an outside chance, that means you are some chance. You need to take the risks somewhere, so your not left regretting not having a go. You have no cash to speak of, but probably have 1, maybe 2, trades more than a lot of teams above you. These trades are your only weapon/method of attack.
I'm not sure I agree with your statement, that you already have 2 Premium Rucks. I think there will be 4 Rucks that will go close to 110+ for the last 9 games: Goldy, Minson, Cox, NicNat. You have 1. Leuey is averaging 98.6. Yes, Brisbane have a good draw, and he has averaged 109.7 in 3 games since he came back, but here is your problem. If you say, "I'm happy with Cox and Leuey. Leuey may be just short of the others, but not short enough to use a trade on upgrading Nicholls.", you may be right. That means you think Rocky can outscore Goldy/Minson/NicNat. That's what you're looking at. If Cox goes up, Rocky becomes your F6. I can't see him outscoring those three guys, and most of the guys above you will have a stronger R1/R2/F6 combination than Cox/Leuey/Rocky.
I think you need to make at least 2 upgrades to have any chance of being competitive at the pointy end of the season with the really good teams. To do that, you need to get the money somewhere! Let's look at the potential growth in the tradeable players listed above:
Clisby: SC Gold have him peaking too late to be of any value as a cash cow, unless you do a last minute one up, one down in about round 19 or 20, when he is expected to be about $280k.
Docherty: Struggling to get picked, so has potentially peaked already. A downgrade to Oxley/Richards makes $81k
Kennedy B: SC Gold say he has peaked, and is due to drop $10k this week. If you downgrade him, probably the best option is to a DPP. Whether it is M/F or M/D is up to you. As it is a cash raising exercise, the cheapest available are $109,500 (Hams, Colquhoun, Prudden, Atkins). If you do it this week, you make $124,500. If you wait for next week, SC Gold say you make $114k.
Rowe: Rowe might have maxed out, given his shakey JS. Rowe to McBean makes you $110. I'm not sure there is much value in downgrading Nicholls for cash, but there is possibly upside in upgrading him to a Premium.
Summary. If you stick to downgrading Rookies only, it looks like trades can make you $81k, $124 or 114k, $110k.
I think linking Staker to your Defs is a really good idea. I also think, if you are going to have any chance of an outside miracle, you need to start loopholing properly. I cannot stress to you enough what a difference this potentially makes, and I cannot stress to you enough, that Richards is twice as good to you as Oxley, if you are going to start loopholing!
So where does this rainbow leave us?
To make progress, you have to try and eliminate your weaknesses. Cox is in 96% of the top 100 teams. The problem we've identified is, that it is easier to find a high scoring Ruck, than it is a high scoring Forward. By shifting Cox into the Ruck, you are forcing yourself to find a high scoring Forward to improve upon Rockliff's expected scores (unless you think Rocky will go 110+ from here!). NicNat sort of fits both roles, but outside of NicNat, can you think any forward that you don't have, that will outscore Goldy/Minson? I can't. I'm not sure, but I think you'll find most of the top teams have Cox in their Forward line because of this exact fact. If you can upgrade Nicholls, and keep Rocky as your F7, you have great coverage for any Ruck or Forward outs.
For someone in a risk taking situation, Kennedy B is a luxury. He has, according to SC Gold, peaked in price. Given your Rucks and Forwards will be potentially working together for coverage, and Staker will probably come a swing man, it means Kennedy is probably best served becoming a M/F DPP. The points are secondary here, as it is a money making, flexibility creating exercise. That being the case, we need to look at the player that gives the best loophole possibilities out of Atkins, and Prudden. There's really not much in it, but maybe Adelaide by a whisker, so Kennedy B to Atkins.
I'm guessing you'll be totally surprised, and hate my suggestion. I'm suggesting one trade this week. Kennedy B --> Atkins!
If you think Staker will outscore Clisby significantly, then also do Docherty to Richards this week.
If you think there will be less than 10 to 15 in it, wait on that trade. Richards isn't playing, so won't go up in price for now. Docherty might get picked next week, and get a few extra dollars for you if he does.
Your Kennedy B to Atkins trade bumps your bank to $143k.
Your next 2 trades, if all selections go well next week, will be in round 16 or 17.
Docherty to Richards makes your bank around $224k. Nicholls to Goldy/Minson/NicNat, according to SC Gold, will cost you between: $215,500 and $230,100 in round 16, or $177,700 and $197,400 in round 17.
These planned trades leave you between $47k and $0 in the bank, and 2 trades. It makes your team look like this:
Def's: Goddard, Gibbs, Shaw, Hanley, McKenzie, Duffield - Clisby, Richards +(Staker)
Mid's: Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Watson, Griffen, JPK, Jack, Barlow - Mitchell T, Atkins +(Bartel, SJ, Martin, Rocky)
Ruc's: Goldstein*, Leuenberger - Rowe, Currie + (Cox, Roughead)
Fwd's: Cox, Bartel, Johnson, Franklin, Roughead, Martin - Rockliff, Staker + (Rowe, Atkins)
*could be Minson/NicNat
That's a pretty strong for a team with 2 trades, good coverage, and flexibility built in.
There are so many loopholes you can exploit, sending players between lines, that you could save/make 30-50 points/week. Even in the Midfield, it costs you nothing to say, look at Barlow's score before Mitchell plays, and if Barlow gets subbed/injured you're covered.
I chose Atkins over a Def DPP, because you have Rocky at F7, but you could just as easily go a Def DPP. Remember, you need 2 outs in your Mids before that DPP is needed anyway! I also like that you can bring Richards down to your Fwd line, and exploit your 7 Prem Fwd line with the loophole as well!
It still leaves Duffield in your team, but you have options. you have 2 trades, and possibly nearly $50k to fix him, you can loophole him with Clisby and maybe get something out of that, as well. I guess I'm not as confident on improving Duffields score by trading another Def in, as I am on improving Rocky's score by trading a true Premium Ruck in.
Which ever way you decide to go, I wish you luck, and I hope you climb up the ratings!
ps - an alternative, that gets you Ibbo for Duffield, but uses an extra trade.
Rnd 15 - Duffield/Kennedy to Richards/Atkins
Rnd 16 - Docherty/Nicholls to Ibbotson/Goldstein*
It gives you Ibbo, but only 1 trade left to get you through the last 7 weeks. You can possibly manage that with the flexibility you would have built!
Def: Clisby (B/E -72, 66) (Duffield (B/E 132, 0), Docherty (B/E 16, 0))
Mid: Kennedy B (B/E 74, 51)
Ruck: Nicholls (B/E 17, 87) (Rowe (B/E 41, 62))
Fwd: Rockliff is a potential trade out, but for now, I'd leave him. He is partly anchored because Staker currently sits in your Fwd's.
I agree with your statement about taking risks. Even though you are an outside chance, that means you are some chance. You need to take the risks somewhere, so your not left regretting not having a go. You have no cash to speak of, but probably have 1, maybe 2, trades more than a lot of teams above you. These trades are your only weapon/method of attack.
I'm not sure I agree with your statement, that you already have 2 Premium Rucks. I think there will be 4 Rucks that will go close to 110+ for the last 9 games: Goldy, Minson, Cox, NicNat. You have 1. Leuey is averaging 98.6. Yes, Brisbane have a good draw, and he has averaged 109.7 in 3 games since he came back, but here is your problem. If you say, "I'm happy with Cox and Leuey. Leuey may be just short of the others, but not short enough to use a trade on upgrading Nicholls.", you may be right. That means you think Rocky can outscore Goldy/Minson/NicNat. That's what you're looking at. If Cox goes up, Rocky becomes your F6. I can't see him outscoring those three guys, and most of the guys above you will have a stronger R1/R2/F6 combination than Cox/Leuey/Rocky.
I think you need to make at least 2 upgrades to have any chance of being competitive at the pointy end of the season with the really good teams. To do that, you need to get the money somewhere! Let's look at the potential growth in the tradeable players listed above:
Clisby: SC Gold have him peaking too late to be of any value as a cash cow, unless you do a last minute one up, one down in about round 19 or 20, when he is expected to be about $280k.
Docherty: Struggling to get picked, so has potentially peaked already. A downgrade to Oxley/Richards makes $81k
Kennedy B: SC Gold say he has peaked, and is due to drop $10k this week. If you downgrade him, probably the best option is to a DPP. Whether it is M/F or M/D is up to you. As it is a cash raising exercise, the cheapest available are $109,500 (Hams, Colquhoun, Prudden, Atkins). If you do it this week, you make $124,500. If you wait for next week, SC Gold say you make $114k.
Rowe: Rowe might have maxed out, given his shakey JS. Rowe to McBean makes you $110. I'm not sure there is much value in downgrading Nicholls for cash, but there is possibly upside in upgrading him to a Premium.
Summary. If you stick to downgrading Rookies only, it looks like trades can make you $81k, $124 or 114k, $110k.
I think linking Staker to your Defs is a really good idea. I also think, if you are going to have any chance of an outside miracle, you need to start loopholing properly. I cannot stress to you enough what a difference this potentially makes, and I cannot stress to you enough, that Richards is twice as good to you as Oxley, if you are going to start loopholing!
So where does this rainbow leave us?
To make progress, you have to try and eliminate your weaknesses. Cox is in 96% of the top 100 teams. The problem we've identified is, that it is easier to find a high scoring Ruck, than it is a high scoring Forward. By shifting Cox into the Ruck, you are forcing yourself to find a high scoring Forward to improve upon Rockliff's expected scores (unless you think Rocky will go 110+ from here!). NicNat sort of fits both roles, but outside of NicNat, can you think any forward that you don't have, that will outscore Goldy/Minson? I can't. I'm not sure, but I think you'll find most of the top teams have Cox in their Forward line because of this exact fact. If you can upgrade Nicholls, and keep Rocky as your F7, you have great coverage for any Ruck or Forward outs.
For someone in a risk taking situation, Kennedy B is a luxury. He has, according to SC Gold, peaked in price. Given your Rucks and Forwards will be potentially working together for coverage, and Staker will probably come a swing man, it means Kennedy is probably best served becoming a M/F DPP. The points are secondary here, as it is a money making, flexibility creating exercise. That being the case, we need to look at the player that gives the best loophole possibilities out of Atkins, and Prudden. There's really not much in it, but maybe Adelaide by a whisker, so Kennedy B to Atkins.
I'm guessing you'll be totally surprised, and hate my suggestion. I'm suggesting one trade this week. Kennedy B --> Atkins!
If you think Staker will outscore Clisby significantly, then also do Docherty to Richards this week.
If you think there will be less than 10 to 15 in it, wait on that trade. Richards isn't playing, so won't go up in price for now. Docherty might get picked next week, and get a few extra dollars for you if he does.
Your Kennedy B to Atkins trade bumps your bank to $143k.
Your next 2 trades, if all selections go well next week, will be in round 16 or 17.
Docherty to Richards makes your bank around $224k. Nicholls to Goldy/Minson/NicNat, according to SC Gold, will cost you between: $215,500 and $230,100 in round 16, or $177,700 and $197,400 in round 17.
These planned trades leave you between $47k and $0 in the bank, and 2 trades. It makes your team look like this:
Def's: Goddard, Gibbs, Shaw, Hanley, McKenzie, Duffield - Clisby, Richards +(Staker)
Mid's: Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Watson, Griffen, JPK, Jack, Barlow - Mitchell T, Atkins +(Bartel, SJ, Martin, Rocky)
Ruc's: Goldstein*, Leuenberger - Rowe, Currie + (Cox, Roughead)
Fwd's: Cox, Bartel, Johnson, Franklin, Roughead, Martin - Rockliff, Staker + (Rowe, Atkins)
*could be Minson/NicNat
That's a pretty strong for a team with 2 trades, good coverage, and flexibility built in.
There are so many loopholes you can exploit, sending players between lines, that you could save/make 30-50 points/week. Even in the Midfield, it costs you nothing to say, look at Barlow's score before Mitchell plays, and if Barlow gets subbed/injured you're covered.
I chose Atkins over a Def DPP, because you have Rocky at F7, but you could just as easily go a Def DPP. Remember, you need 2 outs in your Mids before that DPP is needed anyway! I also like that you can bring Richards down to your Fwd line, and exploit your 7 Prem Fwd line with the loophole as well!
It still leaves Duffield in your team, but you have options. you have 2 trades, and possibly nearly $50k to fix him, you can loophole him with Clisby and maybe get something out of that, as well. I guess I'm not as confident on improving Duffields score by trading another Def in, as I am on improving Rocky's score by trading a true Premium Ruck in.
Which ever way you decide to go, I wish you luck, and I hope you climb up the ratings!
ps - an alternative, that gets you Ibbo for Duffield, but uses an extra trade.
Rnd 15 - Duffield/Kennedy to Richards/Atkins
Rnd 16 - Docherty/Nicholls to Ibbotson/Goldstein*
It gives you Ibbo, but only 1 trade left to get you through the last 7 weeks. You can possibly manage that with the flexibility you would have built!
also not licking Hickey being named. No doubt it's only due to playing FRE but all the same hickey pops up every few games and McEvoy suffers IMO
To add before you have answered lol. In which order (needing to replace) would you put these three players
McEvoy
Priddis
Rockliff.
Am I better off sticking with McEvoy and trading out rockliff? My intitial thoughts are rockliff at least has an easy run so he should equal McEvoy with a potential to sneak in a 140 once or twice. And thinking a bit ahead to the final round GF week the saints play Freo. So in comes hickey. But at the same time Rockliff plays at geelong lol.
To add before you have answered lol. In which order (needing to replace) would you put these three players
McEvoy
Priddis
Rockliff.
Am I better off sticking with McEvoy and trading out rockliff? My intitial thoughts are rockliff at least has an easy run so he should equal McEvoy with a potential to sneak in a 140 once or twice. And thinking a bit ahead to the final round GF week the saints play Freo. So in comes hickey. But at the same time Rockliff plays at geelong lol.
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Just want to say a massive Thankyou Rowsus. Your reply to Demolished has made me rethink my trades this week.
I was feeling a bit lost this week thinking about not trading but having macaffer and staker as fwd bench. Too much cash stored up!
So got rid of macaffer for x.richards
then moved richards into defence by getting rid of Webster. This allowed me to pick up McBean in my fwds. So this weeks trades are:
macaffer->richards
webster->mcbean
On their own they dont look like much but have given me 300k for next week to upgrade nicholls -> minson and switching NicNat into my fwds via McBean
Which means with Stevie J due back Rockliff becomes my swingman and purely bench cover.
Thanks Rowsus, this has made my team a lot more flexible for the future!
I was feeling a bit lost this week thinking about not trading but having macaffer and staker as fwd bench. Too much cash stored up!
So got rid of macaffer for x.richards
then moved richards into defence by getting rid of Webster. This allowed me to pick up McBean in my fwds. So this weeks trades are:
macaffer->richards
webster->mcbean
On their own they dont look like much but have given me 300k for next week to upgrade nicholls -> minson and switching NicNat into my fwds via McBean
Which means with Stevie J due back Rockliff becomes my swingman and purely bench cover.
Thanks Rowsus, this has made my team a lot more flexible for the future!
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Let's look at your situation/tradeable players line by line (B/E, SC Gold projected score, if selected):
Def: Clisby (B/E -72, 66) (Duffield (B/E 132, 0), Docherty (B/E 16, 0))
Mid: Kennedy B (B/E 74, 51)
Ruck: Nicholls (B/E 17, 87) (Rowe (B/E 41, 62))
Fwd: Rockliff is a potential trade out, but for now, I'd leave him. He is partly anchored because Staker currently sits in your Fwd's.
I agree with your statement about taking risks. Even though you are an outside chance, that means you are some chance. You need to take the risks somewhere, so your not left regretting not having a go. You have no cash to speak of, but probably have 1, maybe 2, trades more than a lot of teams above you. These trades are your only weapon/method of attack.
I'm not sure I agree with your statement, that you already have 2 Premium Rucks. I think there will be 4 Rucks that will go close to 110+ for the last 9 games: Goldy, Minson, Cox, NicNat. You have 1. Leuey is averaging 98.6. Yes, Brisbane have a good draw, and he has averaged 109.7 in 3 games since he came back, but here is your problem. If you say, "I'm happy with Cox and Leuey. Leuey may be just short of the others, but not short enough to use a trade on upgrading Nicholls.", you may be right. That means you think Rocky can outscore Goldy/Minson/NicNat. That's what you're looking at. If Cox goes up, Rocky becomes your F6. I can't see him outscoring those three guys, and most of the guys above you will have a stronger R1/R2/F6 combination than Cox/Leuey/Rocky.
I think you need to make at least 2 upgrades to have any chance of being competitive at the pointy end of the season with the really good teams. To do that, you need to get the money somewhere! Let's look at the potential growth in the tradeable players listed above:
Clisby: SC Gold have him peaking too late to be of any value as a cash cow, unless you do a last minute one up, one down in about round 19 or 20, when he is expected to be about $280k.
Docherty: Struggling to get picked, so has potentially peaked already. A downgrade to Oxley/Richards makes $81k
Kennedy B: SC Gold say he has peaked, and is due to drop $10k this week. If you downgrade him, probably the best option is to a DPP. Whether it is M/F or M/D is up to you. As it is a cash raising exercise, the cheapest available are $109,500 (Hams, Colquhoun, Prudden, Atkins). If you do it this week, you make $124,500. If you wait for next week, SC Gold say you make $114k.
Rowe: Rowe might have maxed out, given his shakey JS. Rowe to McBean makes you $110. I'm not sure there is much value in downgrading Nicholls for cash, but there is possibly upside in upgrading him to a Premium.
Summary. If you stick to downgrading Rookies only, it looks like trades can make you $81k, $124 or 114k, $110k.
I think linking Staker to your Defs is a really good idea. I also think, if you are going to have any chance of an outside miracle, you need to start loopholing properly. I cannot stress to you enough what a difference this potentially makes, and I cannot stress to you enough, that Richards is twice as good to you as Oxley, if you are going to start loopholing!
So where does this rainbow leave us?
To make progress, you have to try and eliminate your weaknesses. Cox is in 96% of the top 100 teams. The problem we've identified is, that it is easier to find a high scoring Ruck, than it is a high scoring Forward. By shifting Cox into the Ruck, you are forcing yourself to find a high scoring Forward to improve upon Rockliff's expected scores (unless you think Rocky will go 110+ from here!). NicNat sort of fits both roles, but outside of NicNat, can you think any forward that you don't have, that will outscore Goldy/Minson? I can't. I'm not sure, but I think you'll find most of the top teams have Cox in their Forward line because of this exact fact. If you can upgrade Nicholls, and keep Rocky as your F7, you have great coverage for any Ruck or Forward outs.
For someone in a risk taking situation, Kennedy B is a luxury. He has, according to SC Gold, peaked in price. Given your Rucks and Forwards will be potentially working together for coverage, and Staker will probably come a swing man, it means Kennedy is probably best served becoming a M/F DPP. The points are secondary here, as it is a money making, flexibility creating exercise. That being the case, we need to look at the player that gives the best loophole possibilities out of Atkins, and Prudden. There's really not much in it, but maybe Adelaide by a whisker, so Kennedy B to Atkins.
I'm guessing you'll be totally surprised, and hate my suggestion. I'm suggesting one trade this week. Kennedy B --> Atkins!
If you think Staker will outscore Clisby significantly, then also do Docherty to Richards this week.
If you think there will be less than 10 to 15 in it, wait on that trade. Richards isn't playing, so won't go up in price for now. Docherty might get picked next week, and get a few extra dollars for you if he does.
Your Kennedy B to Atkins trade bumps your bank to $143k.
Your next 2 trades, if all selections go well next week, will be in round 16 or 17.
Docherty to Richards makes your bank around $224k. Nicholls to Goldy/Minson/NicNat, according to SC Gold, will cost you between: $215,500 and $230,100 in round 16, or $177,700 and $197,400 in round 17.
These planned trades leave you between $47k and $0 in the bank, and 2 trades. It makes your team look like this:
Def's: Goddard, Gibbs, Shaw, Hanley, McKenzie, Duffield - Clisby, Richards +(Staker)
Mid's: Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Watson, Griffen, JPK, Jack, Barlow - Mitchell T, Atkins +(Bartel, SJ, Martin, Rocky)
Ruc's: Goldstein*, Leuenberger - Rowe, Currie + (Cox, Roughead)
Fwd's: Cox, Bartel, Johnson, Franklin, Roughead, Martin - Rockliff, Staker + (Rowe, Atkins)
*could be Minson/NicNat
That's a pretty strong for a team with 2 trades, good coverage, and flexibility built in.
There are so many loopholes you can exploit, sending players between lines, that you could save/make 30-50 points/week. Even in the Midfield, it costs you nothing to say, look at Barlow's score before Mitchell plays, and if Barlow gets subbed/injured you're covered.
I chose Atkins over a Def DPP, because you have Rocky at F7, but you could just as easily go a Def DPP. Remember, you need 2 outs in your Mids before that DPP is needed anyway! I also like that you can bring Richards down to your Fwd line, and exploit your 7 Prem Fwd line with the loophole as well!
It still leaves Duffield in your team, but you have options. you have 2 trades, and possibly nearly $50k to fix him, you can loophole him with Clisby and maybe get something out of that, as well. I guess I'm not as confident on improving Duffields score by trading another Def in, as I am on improving Rocky's score by trading a true Premium Ruck in.
Which ever way you decide to go, I wish you luck, and I hope you climb up the ratings!
ps - an alternative, that gets you Ibbo for Duffield, but uses an extra trade.
Rnd 15 - Duffield/Kennedy to Richards/Atkins
Rnd 16 - Docherty/Nicholls to Ibbotson/Goldstein*
It gives you Ibbo, but only 1 trade left to get you through the last 7 weeks. You can possibly manage that with the flexibility you would have built!
Def: Clisby (B/E -72, 66) (Duffield (B/E 132, 0), Docherty (B/E 16, 0))
Mid: Kennedy B (B/E 74, 51)
Ruck: Nicholls (B/E 17, 87) (Rowe (B/E 41, 62))
Fwd: Rockliff is a potential trade out, but for now, I'd leave him. He is partly anchored because Staker currently sits in your Fwd's.
I agree with your statement about taking risks. Even though you are an outside chance, that means you are some chance. You need to take the risks somewhere, so your not left regretting not having a go. You have no cash to speak of, but probably have 1, maybe 2, trades more than a lot of teams above you. These trades are your only weapon/method of attack.
I'm not sure I agree with your statement, that you already have 2 Premium Rucks. I think there will be 4 Rucks that will go close to 110+ for the last 9 games: Goldy, Minson, Cox, NicNat. You have 1. Leuey is averaging 98.6. Yes, Brisbane have a good draw, and he has averaged 109.7 in 3 games since he came back, but here is your problem. If you say, "I'm happy with Cox and Leuey. Leuey may be just short of the others, but not short enough to use a trade on upgrading Nicholls.", you may be right. That means you think Rocky can outscore Goldy/Minson/NicNat. That's what you're looking at. If Cox goes up, Rocky becomes your F6. I can't see him outscoring those three guys, and most of the guys above you will have a stronger R1/R2/F6 combination than Cox/Leuey/Rocky.
I think you need to make at least 2 upgrades to have any chance of being competitive at the pointy end of the season with the really good teams. To do that, you need to get the money somewhere! Let's look at the potential growth in the tradeable players listed above:
Clisby: SC Gold have him peaking too late to be of any value as a cash cow, unless you do a last minute one up, one down in about round 19 or 20, when he is expected to be about $280k.
Docherty: Struggling to get picked, so has potentially peaked already. A downgrade to Oxley/Richards makes $81k
Kennedy B: SC Gold say he has peaked, and is due to drop $10k this week. If you downgrade him, probably the best option is to a DPP. Whether it is M/F or M/D is up to you. As it is a cash raising exercise, the cheapest available are $109,500 (Hams, Colquhoun, Prudden, Atkins). If you do it this week, you make $124,500. If you wait for next week, SC Gold say you make $114k.
Rowe: Rowe might have maxed out, given his shakey JS. Rowe to McBean makes you $110. I'm not sure there is much value in downgrading Nicholls for cash, but there is possibly upside in upgrading him to a Premium.
Summary. If you stick to downgrading Rookies only, it looks like trades can make you $81k, $124 or 114k, $110k.
I think linking Staker to your Defs is a really good idea. I also think, if you are going to have any chance of an outside miracle, you need to start loopholing properly. I cannot stress to you enough what a difference this potentially makes, and I cannot stress to you enough, that Richards is twice as good to you as Oxley, if you are going to start loopholing!
So where does this rainbow leave us?
To make progress, you have to try and eliminate your weaknesses. Cox is in 96% of the top 100 teams. The problem we've identified is, that it is easier to find a high scoring Ruck, than it is a high scoring Forward. By shifting Cox into the Ruck, you are forcing yourself to find a high scoring Forward to improve upon Rockliff's expected scores (unless you think Rocky will go 110+ from here!). NicNat sort of fits both roles, but outside of NicNat, can you think any forward that you don't have, that will outscore Goldy/Minson? I can't. I'm not sure, but I think you'll find most of the top teams have Cox in their Forward line because of this exact fact. If you can upgrade Nicholls, and keep Rocky as your F7, you have great coverage for any Ruck or Forward outs.
For someone in a risk taking situation, Kennedy B is a luxury. He has, according to SC Gold, peaked in price. Given your Rucks and Forwards will be potentially working together for coverage, and Staker will probably come a swing man, it means Kennedy is probably best served becoming a M/F DPP. The points are secondary here, as it is a money making, flexibility creating exercise. That being the case, we need to look at the player that gives the best loophole possibilities out of Atkins, and Prudden. There's really not much in it, but maybe Adelaide by a whisker, so Kennedy B to Atkins.
I'm guessing you'll be totally surprised, and hate my suggestion. I'm suggesting one trade this week. Kennedy B --> Atkins!
If you think Staker will outscore Clisby significantly, then also do Docherty to Richards this week.
If you think there will be less than 10 to 15 in it, wait on that trade. Richards isn't playing, so won't go up in price for now. Docherty might get picked next week, and get a few extra dollars for you if he does.
Your Kennedy B to Atkins trade bumps your bank to $143k.
Your next 2 trades, if all selections go well next week, will be in round 16 or 17.
Docherty to Richards makes your bank around $224k. Nicholls to Goldy/Minson/NicNat, according to SC Gold, will cost you between: $215,500 and $230,100 in round 16, or $177,700 and $197,400 in round 17.
These planned trades leave you between $47k and $0 in the bank, and 2 trades. It makes your team look like this:
Def's: Goddard, Gibbs, Shaw, Hanley, McKenzie, Duffield - Clisby, Richards +(Staker)
Mid's: Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Watson, Griffen, JPK, Jack, Barlow - Mitchell T, Atkins +(Bartel, SJ, Martin, Rocky)
Ruc's: Goldstein*, Leuenberger - Rowe, Currie + (Cox, Roughead)
Fwd's: Cox, Bartel, Johnson, Franklin, Roughead, Martin - Rockliff, Staker + (Rowe, Atkins)
*could be Minson/NicNat
That's a pretty strong for a team with 2 trades, good coverage, and flexibility built in.
There are so many loopholes you can exploit, sending players between lines, that you could save/make 30-50 points/week. Even in the Midfield, it costs you nothing to say, look at Barlow's score before Mitchell plays, and if Barlow gets subbed/injured you're covered.
I chose Atkins over a Def DPP, because you have Rocky at F7, but you could just as easily go a Def DPP. Remember, you need 2 outs in your Mids before that DPP is needed anyway! I also like that you can bring Richards down to your Fwd line, and exploit your 7 Prem Fwd line with the loophole as well!
It still leaves Duffield in your team, but you have options. you have 2 trades, and possibly nearly $50k to fix him, you can loophole him with Clisby and maybe get something out of that, as well. I guess I'm not as confident on improving Duffields score by trading another Def in, as I am on improving Rocky's score by trading a true Premium Ruck in.
Which ever way you decide to go, I wish you luck, and I hope you climb up the ratings!
ps - an alternative, that gets you Ibbo for Duffield, but uses an extra trade.
Rnd 15 - Duffield/Kennedy to Richards/Atkins
Rnd 16 - Docherty/Nicholls to Ibbotson/Goldstein*
It gives you Ibbo, but only 1 trade left to get you through the last 7 weeks. You can possibly manage that with the flexibility you would have built!
Your suggestions have really made me think and building up those DPP's whilst also even moving Rocky to the bench makes me quite comfortable with my team. My only concern is the amount of trades left, I really don't want any less than 2 when there's still a chunk of rounds to play. I'm confident my links can fill in for spots but I'm worried about injuries, LTI's.
The point you brought up about the weakness of my R1/R2/F6 has made me think I am really going to have to blow all my trades. Leaving me with less "what ifs" come seasons end.
Also just curious as to why you didn't suggest the Docherty > Richards downgrade this week too? It means I must play Clisby on field this week. Thinking I'll make that trade too (just read back over the original post) as I believe Staker with outscore Clisby by more than 15-20 points.
Trading Kennedy > Atkins and Docherty > X.Richards (is it a fixture thing that makes him more appealing?? I'm not sure.) leaves me with 240K in the bank. Meaning I can upgrade Nicholls in one or two rounds time. This brings me a little back to what I said above. Just roughly I think Nicholls is predicted to go up 35K each for the next two rounds, and 30K in three rounds from now, that'll make him 100K more than he is priced at now. I know I'm a real outside chance to win the whole lot but would it be worth waiting an extra round or two to upgrade Nicholls? Meaning I have more than $0 in my bank?
It would be a massive pain if I, for example, had to trade Duffield when he makes his return due to a LTI, when he drops in price significantly and I have no money to upgrade. With that being said, I have to decide what's more valuable out of immediate points and potential future trades & cash.
Thanks Rowsus.
EDIT - Staker may have to play if Cox pulls out late. Considering WCE play after Brisbane, I may have to keep Staker in the FWD line just in case... meaning I must play Clisby and risk not playing Staker.
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RUC - Maric, Nicholls (Rowe, Currie)
FWD - Cox, Nic Nat
Currently I am without Maric due to him having a groin injury but to help with my planning I was wondering what peoples thoughts are...
Am I better off adding another premium RUC (Minson, Goldstien, or maybe Sandilands) to complete my RUC and FWD lines??
OR
DPP one of Cox or Nic Nat into the RUC and adding another premium FWD (Bartel, Rioli possibly) to complete my RUC and FWD lines??
Due to no Daniher, SJ suspended and Maric out for at least another week I am undoable to cover a 0 but will cop that, just trying to get some plans in place over the next few weeks and was wondering your thoughts.
FWD - Cox, Nic Nat
Currently I am without Maric due to him having a groin injury but to help with my planning I was wondering what peoples thoughts are...
Am I better off adding another premium RUC (Minson, Goldstien, or maybe Sandilands) to complete my RUC and FWD lines??
OR
DPP one of Cox or Nic Nat into the RUC and adding another premium FWD (Bartel, Rioli possibly) to complete my RUC and FWD lines??
Due to no Daniher, SJ suspended and Maric out for at least another week I am undoable to cover a 0 but will cop that, just trying to get some plans in place over the next few weeks and was wondering your thoughts.
Hi guys,
thanks for all the kind words!
I figure if people if people take the time to ask my opinion, I should at least put some time and thought in to giving the best answer I can.
In some circumstances that can mean suggesting player A to one Coach, and player B to another, as different Coaches mean different circumstances, and different fixes.
I see I have more there for me to look at. I will handle the quick/simple ones first, then get onto the longer ones.
Thanks again.
thanks for all the kind words!
I figure if people if people take the time to ask my opinion, I should at least put some time and thought in to giving the best answer I can.
In some circumstances that can mean suggesting player A to one Coach, and player B to another, as different Coaches mean different circumstances, and different fixes.
I see I have more there for me to look at. I will handle the quick/simple ones first, then get onto the longer ones.
Thanks again.
RUC - Maric, Nicholls (Rowe, Currie)
FWD - Cox, Nic Nat
Currently I am without Maric due to him having a groin injury but to help with my planning I was wondering what peoples thoughts are...
Am I better off adding another premium RUC (Minson, Goldstien, or maybe Sandilands) to complete my RUC and FWD lines??
OR
DPP one of Cox or Nic Nat into the RUC and adding another premium FWD (Bartel, Rioli possibly) to complete my RUC and FWD lines??
Due to no Daniher, SJ suspended and Maric out for at least another week I am undoable to cover a 0 but will cop that, just trying to get some plans in place over the next few weeks and was wondering your thoughts.
FWD - Cox, Nic Nat
Currently I am without Maric due to him having a groin injury but to help with my planning I was wondering what peoples thoughts are...
Am I better off adding another premium RUC (Minson, Goldstien, or maybe Sandilands) to complete my RUC and FWD lines??
OR
DPP one of Cox or Nic Nat into the RUC and adding another premium FWD (Bartel, Rioli possibly) to complete my RUC and FWD lines??
Due to no Daniher, SJ suspended and Maric out for at least another week I am undoable to cover a 0 but will cop that, just trying to get some plans in place over the next few weeks and was wondering your thoughts.
It becomes a simple question of who you think will get a higher P.I.T. score in the last 9 weeks. Sandi could be a monster when he gets back, but I just get the feeling they will get some game time into him, and give him a little cuddle, to make sure he is ok for the finals. That means a drop in score in some games, so while his good scores might be good, he's likely to have some 70's or 80's when he is cuddled. Of course, there is the ever present risk of him missing games again, too.
To my mind that leaves Goldy, Minson, Bartel, Rioli. That's just my order, your may be different.