Questions for Rowsus
- Thread starter Grant
- Start date
Almost impossible to say! There are so many things that go into making up a SC score that weren't even recorded back then, it just means we will never know! I'm going to add in Gary Ablett snr, just for fun!
Careys best 2 seasons were 1996 and 1998. In the home and away seasons of those years he averaged:
1996: played 22 games, 13.1 kicks, 5.9 h'balls, 7.6 marks, 3.4 goals
1998: played 22 games, 14.6 kicks, 5.0 h'balls, 7.9 marks, 3.3 goals
No coincidence, that in Carey's best 2 years, North played in 2 G/F's, won one, and should have won the other!
We can only guess what those stats might equate to in SC terms, I'll say 120-125/game.
Ablett actually had extraordinary years in 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995. I'm going to use 1993!
1993: played 17 games, 13.7 kicks, 0.8 h'balls, 6.5 marks, 7.3 goals
You have to love that kick to handball ratio! 13 Handballs for the season, and 9 games where he had none! I'm going to put him on 145-150/game.
There is little doubt with Hird we have to use 1996.
1996: played 21 games, 13.4 kicks, 9.7 h'balls, 7.4 marks, 1.4 goals
The stats are probably lower than most people imagined, and Essendon only won 13 games. I'm going to give him 115-120/game.
It will be interesting to see what other people think!
Careys best 2 seasons were 1996 and 1998. In the home and away seasons of those years he averaged:
1996: played 22 games, 13.1 kicks, 5.9 h'balls, 7.6 marks, 3.4 goals
1998: played 22 games, 14.6 kicks, 5.0 h'balls, 7.9 marks, 3.3 goals
No coincidence, that in Carey's best 2 years, North played in 2 G/F's, won one, and should have won the other!
We can only guess what those stats might equate to in SC terms, I'll say 120-125/game.
Ablett actually had extraordinary years in 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995. I'm going to use 1993!
1993: played 17 games, 13.7 kicks, 0.8 h'balls, 6.5 marks, 7.3 goals
You have to love that kick to handball ratio! 13 Handballs for the season, and 9 games where he had none! I'm going to put him on 145-150/game.
There is little doubt with Hird we have to use 1996.
1996: played 21 games, 13.4 kicks, 9.7 h'balls, 7.4 marks, 1.4 goals
The stats are probably lower than most people imagined, and Essendon only won 13 games. I'm going to give him 115-120/game.
It will be interesting to see what other people think!
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I'm afraid you missed the top 1000, Oz.
While it's a fantastic looking team, you are missing too many key players, and have too many passengers, even though it is an all star line up!
Just picking a few out:
Keith Greig only managed 3 games for the season, but did have 49 possessions in those 3 games.
Malcolm Blight kicked 70 goals in his 15 games, so we will give him a passing grade.
Your Carlton boys let you down heavily. Ashman was a superstar, but Harmes only managed 15 games, Buckley only managed 13 games with 11.2 possessions per game, and Johnson only managed 12 games.
Bernie Quinlan was a great player for you. He was totally amazed to be listed in the Midfield, after playing FF/CHF the year before, and kicking 48 goals. He was so happy to be listed as a Mid, he kicked 73 goals that season for you!
Michael Turner also only managed 13 games, and his disposal average of 14.2 was low for a good wingman.
You had really high hopes that Matthews was going to be huge for you! He kicked 11 goals in round 1, but only finished the season with 16 games and 48 goals. Servicable, but didn't deliver what round 1 promised!
Your David Cloke experiment flopped badly. 12 games, 18 goals and only 70 hitouts! Ouch!
Mark Browning was good in the 12 games he managed.
Your biggest let down Kelvin Templeton! Brownlow medalist the year before, kicking 75 goals, he managed a paltry 6 games and 8 goals for you!
If it wasn't bad enough that those 9 players only played 101 games for you, you fell down badly by not finding space in your team for:
Peter Featherby, Tony Shaw, Terry Wallace, Geoff Raines, Tony Buhagiar and Bruce Nankervis who were the 6 leading possession getters for the season. In fact, of the 20 leading possession gatherers for the season, you only found 3! (Ashman, Neagle and Barker).
You probably should have found room for Barry Round, as well. His hitouts were down, but he lead the league in marks and handballs for the season!
Michael Roach might have found a spot in the Forward line with his season high 86 goals, but I can understand why you left 2nd place getter Mark "Jacko" Jackson out!
Mark Lee needed to replace Cloke, he was clearly the 2nd best tap Ruckman to Dempsey.
All in all, a team of football superstars, that struggled into the top 50,000 in SC. Too many injuries, and even the odd donut here and there, along with missing most of the high possession men cost you big time. Sorry.
While it's a fantastic looking team, you are missing too many key players, and have too many passengers, even though it is an all star line up!
Just picking a few out:
Keith Greig only managed 3 games for the season, but did have 49 possessions in those 3 games.
Malcolm Blight kicked 70 goals in his 15 games, so we will give him a passing grade.
Your Carlton boys let you down heavily. Ashman was a superstar, but Harmes only managed 15 games, Buckley only managed 13 games with 11.2 possessions per game, and Johnson only managed 12 games.
Bernie Quinlan was a great player for you. He was totally amazed to be listed in the Midfield, after playing FF/CHF the year before, and kicking 48 goals. He was so happy to be listed as a Mid, he kicked 73 goals that season for you!
Michael Turner also only managed 13 games, and his disposal average of 14.2 was low for a good wingman.
You had really high hopes that Matthews was going to be huge for you! He kicked 11 goals in round 1, but only finished the season with 16 games and 48 goals. Servicable, but didn't deliver what round 1 promised!
Your David Cloke experiment flopped badly. 12 games, 18 goals and only 70 hitouts! Ouch!
Mark Browning was good in the 12 games he managed.
Your biggest let down Kelvin Templeton! Brownlow medalist the year before, kicking 75 goals, he managed a paltry 6 games and 8 goals for you!
If it wasn't bad enough that those 9 players only played 101 games for you, you fell down badly by not finding space in your team for:
Peter Featherby, Tony Shaw, Terry Wallace, Geoff Raines, Tony Buhagiar and Bruce Nankervis who were the 6 leading possession getters for the season. In fact, of the 20 leading possession gatherers for the season, you only found 3! (Ashman, Neagle and Barker).
You probably should have found room for Barry Round, as well. His hitouts were down, but he lead the league in marks and handballs for the season!
Michael Roach might have found a spot in the Forward line with his season high 86 goals, but I can understand why you left 2nd place getter Mark "Jacko" Jackson out!
Mark Lee needed to replace Cloke, he was clearly the 2nd best tap Ruckman to Dempsey.
All in all, a team of football superstars, that struggled into the top 50,000 in SC. Too many injuries, and even the odd donut here and there, along with missing most of the high possession men cost you big time. Sorry.
So I'd be going as bad as I am 32 years later....lol.
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Almost impossible to say! There are so many things that go into making up a SC score that weren't even recorded back then, it just means we will never know! I'm going to add in Gary Ablett snr, just for fun!
Careys best 2 seasons were 1996 and 1998. In the home and away seasons of those years he averaged:
1996: played 22 games, 13.1 kicks, 5.9 h'balls, 7.6 marks, 3.4 goals
1998: played 22 games, 14.6 kicks, 5.0 h'balls, 7.9 marks, 3.3 goals
No coincidence, that in Carey's best 2 years, North played in 2 G/F's, won one, and should have won the other!
We can only guess what those stats might equate to in SC terms, I'll say 120-125/game.
Ablett actually had extraordinary years in 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995. I'm going to use 1993!
1993: played 17 games, 13.7 kicks, 0.8 h'balls, 6.5 marks, 7.3 goals
You have to love that kick to handball ratio! 13 Handballs for the season, and 9 games where he had none! I'm going to put him on 145-150/game.
There is little doubt with Hird we have to use 1996.
1996: played 21 games, 13.4 kicks, 9.7 h'balls, 7.4 marks, 1.4 goals
The stats are probably lower than most people imagined, and Essendon only won 13 games. I'm going to give him 115-120/game.
It will be interesting to see what other people think!
Careys best 2 seasons were 1996 and 1998. In the home and away seasons of those years he averaged:
1996: played 22 games, 13.1 kicks, 5.9 h'balls, 7.6 marks, 3.4 goals
1998: played 22 games, 14.6 kicks, 5.0 h'balls, 7.9 marks, 3.3 goals
No coincidence, that in Carey's best 2 years, North played in 2 G/F's, won one, and should have won the other!
We can only guess what those stats might equate to in SC terms, I'll say 120-125/game.
Ablett actually had extraordinary years in 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995. I'm going to use 1993!
1993: played 17 games, 13.7 kicks, 0.8 h'balls, 6.5 marks, 7.3 goals
You have to love that kick to handball ratio! 13 Handballs for the season, and 9 games where he had none! I'm going to put him on 145-150/game.
There is little doubt with Hird we have to use 1996.
1996: played 21 games, 13.4 kicks, 9.7 h'balls, 7.4 marks, 1.4 goals
The stats are probably lower than most people imagined, and Essendon only won 13 games. I'm going to give him 115-120/game.
It will be interesting to see what other people think!
Not sure myself. It fascinates me to wonder what some players from past may have scored. Given the 3300 points allocated to every match needs to be the same and tackle numbers were much lower than they are now and only 20 players played during 1980's rather than 22 it would be interesting to see. Don't think we'll ever know. Teddy Hopkins maybe the best person to have some idea. He was the guy behind the idea that lead to Champion Data type stats evolving into football.
Having said that I get the feeling your numbers for Carey, Hird and Ablett snr would be in the ball park.
Anthony Koutifedes 1999 prelim final last quarter scaling would have been nice too....lol.
David Schwarz Qualifying final score against Carlton in 1994 would have been a monster too. Still have nightmares of being at that game.
Reckon the averages of Gerald Healy and Greg Williams in 1986 would have been very interesting too.
Earth calling Rowsus ! Stat Guru of the world of Supercoach. Would love some advice on my next 3 trades.
Current team.
Goddard, Gibbs, Hibberd, Hanley, Goodes, Terlich. ( Clisby, Thurlow )
Ablett, Pendlebury, Griffin, Swan, K Jack, JPK, Cotchin, T Mitchell. ( Neade m/f, Hrovat )
McEvoy, Natanui. ( Nicholls, Currie )
Cox, Bartel, D Martin, JJK, Buddy, Rockliff. ( Staker, Rowe r/f )
Current rank. 1672. Trades. 7. Cash flow. $ 240,900.
Going with Thurlow to Richards to dpp Staker and add flexablity. ( Don't care if Richards doesn't play )
Like the idea of Mckenzie but not sure on who to trade out. Goodes / Terlich.
Think Terlich is improving all the time and has become critical in Melbs backline so inclined to go Goodes to McKenzie.
On current prices these trades would leave a kitty of $ 292.500
The following trade is where it becomes pear shaped. Could go JJK to Stevie J when he comes back from suspension or thinking outside the square could go Neade to Robbie Gray for better bench cover. Really like having the mid/ foward link for the run home to cover injuries.
If I have foward line injuries I can still bring back Nic Nat through Rowe and play Nicholls in the ruck.
Is there any other glaring trades you can see ? ( Like a high risk high reward policy for the rest of the season )
Thanks in advance Rowsus, enjoy your posts and trying to get my head around them.
Current team.
Goddard, Gibbs, Hibberd, Hanley, Goodes, Terlich. ( Clisby, Thurlow )
Ablett, Pendlebury, Griffin, Swan, K Jack, JPK, Cotchin, T Mitchell. ( Neade m/f, Hrovat )
McEvoy, Natanui. ( Nicholls, Currie )
Cox, Bartel, D Martin, JJK, Buddy, Rockliff. ( Staker, Rowe r/f )
Current rank. 1672. Trades. 7. Cash flow. $ 240,900.
Going with Thurlow to Richards to dpp Staker and add flexablity. ( Don't care if Richards doesn't play )
Like the idea of Mckenzie but not sure on who to trade out. Goodes / Terlich.
Think Terlich is improving all the time and has become critical in Melbs backline so inclined to go Goodes to McKenzie.
On current prices these trades would leave a kitty of $ 292.500
The following trade is where it becomes pear shaped. Could go JJK to Stevie J when he comes back from suspension or thinking outside the square could go Neade to Robbie Gray for better bench cover. Really like having the mid/ foward link for the run home to cover injuries.
If I have foward line injuries I can still bring back Nic Nat through Rowe and play Nicholls in the ruck.
Is there any other glaring trades you can see ? ( Like a high risk high reward policy for the rest of the season )
Thanks in advance Rowsus, enjoy your posts and trying to get my head around them.
First of all, congratulations on having such a good looking team AND 7 trades left!
I like the idea of opening a link for Staker. As your trading is slowing down, and becoming less urgent, maybe wait until round 16 to bring in Richards on the bubble? I know you don't need, or want him to play, but it's just precautionary, in case carnage hits, and all of a sudden you need to use trades.
I'm starting to lean towards Terlich being a better keeper than Goodes, too. It's too late for me, as I boned Terlich in round 12. Either will probably do the job you want, but this week it's keep Terlich.
It's way too early to be doing trades to strengthen your bench, when you could be strengthening your playing stock!
gray may out score Neade by 40/game, but that's 40 extra points sitting on your bench. Having said that, I'm no fan of R Gray at all! Too injury prone, too up and down in his scores! The JJK to SJ trade may increase your weekly by 15 to 20 points. A much better idea than increasing your bench points now! Put it this way, for the Gray trade to be a good idea, you need him to play almost half the games through people missing, for it to be a better trade than SJ.
The other option to look at is upgrading McEvoy to Goldy.
Using SC Gold's figures:
SJ round 16 to 23: 946 points, JJK round 16 to 23: 800 points - profit 146 points (I think it will closer to 175, just my opinion)
McEvoy 15 to 23: 669 points, Goldy 15 to 23: 941 points, an increase of 272 points!
Just food for thought, it also involves you trusting SC Gold's predictions!
Good luck
I like the idea of opening a link for Staker. As your trading is slowing down, and becoming less urgent, maybe wait until round 16 to bring in Richards on the bubble? I know you don't need, or want him to play, but it's just precautionary, in case carnage hits, and all of a sudden you need to use trades.
I'm starting to lean towards Terlich being a better keeper than Goodes, too. It's too late for me, as I boned Terlich in round 12. Either will probably do the job you want, but this week it's keep Terlich.
It's way too early to be doing trades to strengthen your bench, when you could be strengthening your playing stock!
gray may out score Neade by 40/game, but that's 40 extra points sitting on your bench. Having said that, I'm no fan of R Gray at all! Too injury prone, too up and down in his scores! The JJK to SJ trade may increase your weekly by 15 to 20 points. A much better idea than increasing your bench points now! Put it this way, for the Gray trade to be a good idea, you need him to play almost half the games through people missing, for it to be a better trade than SJ.
The other option to look at is upgrading McEvoy to Goldy.
Using SC Gold's figures:
SJ round 16 to 23: 946 points, JJK round 16 to 23: 800 points - profit 146 points (I think it will closer to 175, just my opinion)
McEvoy 15 to 23: 669 points, Goldy 15 to 23: 941 points, an increase of 272 points!
Just food for thought, it also involves you trusting SC Gold's predictions!
Good luck
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Apologies this ought to be in the rant section but...
Duffman you useless toe-rag. You are going to cost me two, possibly three league games with that score tonight. So fortunate I don't have more trades left or you would be out the door. Grrr.
For those looking to pick him up cheap be warned and expect a roller-coaster!
Duffman you useless toe-rag. You are going to cost me two, possibly three league games with that score tonight. So fortunate I don't have more trades left or you would be out the door. Grrr.
For those looking to pick him up cheap be warned and expect a roller-coaster!
Almost impossible to say! There are so many things that go into making up a SC score that weren't even recorded back then, it just means we will never know! I'm going to add in Gary Ablett snr, just for fun!
Careys best 2 seasons were 1996 and 1998. In the home and away seasons of those years he averaged:
1996: played 22 games, 13.1 kicks, 5.9 h'balls, 7.6 marks, 3.4 goals
1998: played 22 games, 14.6 kicks, 5.0 h'balls, 7.9 marks, 3.3 goals
No coincidence, that in Carey's best 2 years, North played in 2 G/F's, won one, and should have won the other!
We can only guess what those stats might equate to in SC terms, I'll say 120-125/game.
Ablett actually had extraordinary years in 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995. I'm going to use 1993!
1993: played 17 games, 13.7 kicks, 0.8 h'balls, 6.5 marks, 7.3 goals
You have to love that kick to handball ratio! 13 Handballs for the season, and 9 games where he had none! I'm going to put him on 145-150/game.
There is little doubt with Hird we have to use 1996.
1996: played 21 games, 13.4 kicks, 9.7 h'balls, 7.4 marks, 1.4 goals
The stats are probably lower than most people imagined, and Essendon only won 13 games. I'm going to give him 115-120/game.
It will be interesting to see what other people think!
Careys best 2 seasons were 1996 and 1998. In the home and away seasons of those years he averaged:
1996: played 22 games, 13.1 kicks, 5.9 h'balls, 7.6 marks, 3.4 goals
1998: played 22 games, 14.6 kicks, 5.0 h'balls, 7.9 marks, 3.3 goals
No coincidence, that in Carey's best 2 years, North played in 2 G/F's, won one, and should have won the other!
We can only guess what those stats might equate to in SC terms, I'll say 120-125/game.
Ablett actually had extraordinary years in 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995. I'm going to use 1993!
1993: played 17 games, 13.7 kicks, 0.8 h'balls, 6.5 marks, 7.3 goals
You have to love that kick to handball ratio! 13 Handballs for the season, and 9 games where he had none! I'm going to put him on 145-150/game.
There is little doubt with Hird we have to use 1996.
1996: played 21 games, 13.4 kicks, 9.7 h'balls, 7.4 marks, 1.4 goals
The stats are probably lower than most people imagined, and Essendon only won 13 games. I'm going to give him 115-120/game.
It will be interesting to see what other people think!
Such a high stat game this year, it would've been awesome to see how weighting and scaling worked in that era. Might've nudged Hirdy's average up to a bit
5 trades left $102,700 in the bank
Now do I downgrade Thurlow to Clisby for that extra bit of cover and money ($218,200) now that Thurlow's jaw is broken. Or is he valuable as a floating donut. I think theres only twice i cant EMG loophole him due to fixture and another one or two times where match times are close and I have to be free to use it.
If I dont go Clisby I have X.Richards as another option. I will assume he wont keep a place and will be another donut. His advantage of course is the ability to swap with Staker for cover.
Is an extra trade worth the $100k?
Now do I downgrade Thurlow to Clisby for that extra bit of cover and money ($218,200) now that Thurlow's jaw is broken. Or is he valuable as a floating donut. I think theres only twice i cant EMG loophole him due to fixture and another one or two times where match times are close and I have to be free to use it.
If I dont go Clisby I have X.Richards as another option. I will assume he wont keep a place and will be another donut. His advantage of course is the ability to swap with Staker for cover.
Is an extra trade worth the $100k?
The simple answer is, no!
Clisby is a nice flavour of the month, but I think he adds little to your side. In some ways, having Thurlow as a donut, that let's you look at Vlastuin or Terlich or Hanley in most weeks, is more useful than Clisby.
With 5 trades and $100k you have room for one more straight upgrade, and one more one up, one down upgrade. That will leave you 2 trades to take you through to when you feel safe. Obviously the one up one down could wait 1 to 4 weeks depending on how nervous you are of disaster down the track.
You do have some potential 1 trade upgrades you could make, and it all comes down to your opinion of who makes the biggest gain from here. I'll take a stab at a couple, but it's best if you use your own figures.
Selwood/Priddis/Fyfe > Dangerfield.
My own guess would be Priddis. He seems to be getting possessions, but not big scores, and WC's draw is toughish. I can see Dangerfield averaging 125 between now, and the end of the season (SC Gold say 125.3). Priddis hasn't actually managed 1 score that high this season! My guess is Priddis might average 108 for the rest of the season. (SC Gold say 104.5). My guess is the upgrade will make you 153 points, SC Gold say it will make you 187 points.
McEvoy > Minson
I don't think I'd be seduced by McEvoys last score. It was against Orren Stephenson, for goodness sakes! Forget last weeks score, and he has overaged 73.0 in his last 5 games, or 90.2 in his last 9! Hardly what you want from your R2 in a finished team. My guess is he'll get around 95 from here, SC Gold say 85.2. Minson has averaged 109.0 in his last 5 games, and his worst 5 game streak for the season averaged 105.0! I can see him getting around 110 from here, and SC gold say around 106.8. My guess says the upgrade makes 135, SC Gold says it makes 194!
Rockliff > Petrie/Bartel
Rockliff is becoming a concern, again! Only 4 100+ scores for the season, and 3 of those came in the first 5 rounds! He has only averaged 75.2 in his last 5 games. Yes, Brisbane have an easy draw, and I'm nearly positive he will improve on that recent 75.2 game average, but I don't think he will get the 100+ average you want from your F6. My guess says around 94, SC Gold says 75.6! SC Gold have definitely changed their system for projected scores this season. They currently have Petrie getting 115.1 from here, which seems a bit high. I think it will be more like 106. Bartel is marked down for 109.1 by SC Gold, and I think that is pretty close to the mark. Going to Petrie gets you 108 in my opinion, and SC Gold says 355! Getting Bartel makes you 135 in my opinion, and 300 in SC Golds opinion.
So my guess is, go Priddis > Dangerfield, while SC Gold would have you go Rockliff > Petrie.
Getting Clisby might improve the back up on your bench, but it's too early to be strengthening your back up, when your on field stock can be improved. Also, the $100k made doesn't seem to help you reach a player you want/need now anyway...... or does it? Only you know that.
Good luck
Clisby is a nice flavour of the month, but I think he adds little to your side. In some ways, having Thurlow as a donut, that let's you look at Vlastuin or Terlich or Hanley in most weeks, is more useful than Clisby.
With 5 trades and $100k you have room for one more straight upgrade, and one more one up, one down upgrade. That will leave you 2 trades to take you through to when you feel safe. Obviously the one up one down could wait 1 to 4 weeks depending on how nervous you are of disaster down the track.
You do have some potential 1 trade upgrades you could make, and it all comes down to your opinion of who makes the biggest gain from here. I'll take a stab at a couple, but it's best if you use your own figures.
Selwood/Priddis/Fyfe > Dangerfield.
My own guess would be Priddis. He seems to be getting possessions, but not big scores, and WC's draw is toughish. I can see Dangerfield averaging 125 between now, and the end of the season (SC Gold say 125.3). Priddis hasn't actually managed 1 score that high this season! My guess is Priddis might average 108 for the rest of the season. (SC Gold say 104.5). My guess is the upgrade will make you 153 points, SC Gold say it will make you 187 points.
McEvoy > Minson
I don't think I'd be seduced by McEvoys last score. It was against Orren Stephenson, for goodness sakes! Forget last weeks score, and he has overaged 73.0 in his last 5 games, or 90.2 in his last 9! Hardly what you want from your R2 in a finished team. My guess is he'll get around 95 from here, SC Gold say 85.2. Minson has averaged 109.0 in his last 5 games, and his worst 5 game streak for the season averaged 105.0! I can see him getting around 110 from here, and SC gold say around 106.8. My guess says the upgrade makes 135, SC Gold says it makes 194!
Rockliff > Petrie/Bartel
Rockliff is becoming a concern, again! Only 4 100+ scores for the season, and 3 of those came in the first 5 rounds! He has only averaged 75.2 in his last 5 games. Yes, Brisbane have an easy draw, and I'm nearly positive he will improve on that recent 75.2 game average, but I don't think he will get the 100+ average you want from your F6. My guess says around 94, SC Gold says 75.6! SC Gold have definitely changed their system for projected scores this season. They currently have Petrie getting 115.1 from here, which seems a bit high. I think it will be more like 106. Bartel is marked down for 109.1 by SC Gold, and I think that is pretty close to the mark. Going to Petrie gets you 108 in my opinion, and SC Gold says 355! Getting Bartel makes you 135 in my opinion, and 300 in SC Golds opinion.
So my guess is, go Priddis > Dangerfield, while SC Gold would have you go Rockliff > Petrie.
Getting Clisby might improve the back up on your bench, but it's too early to be strengthening your back up, when your on field stock can be improved. Also, the $100k made doesn't seem to help you reach a player you want/need now anyway...... or does it? Only you know that.
Good luck