Position Rate My Team - SC Now Open

[Tamuhawk]

Hey guys would love some feedback!

Shaw, Adams, Laird, Marchbank, Hampton, Otten, (Stewart, EVW)

Danger, Pendles, JPK, Selwood, Treloar, Fyfe, SPP, Barret, (Florent, Parfitt, JDC)

Hickey, Sandi (Strnadica)

NRoo, Dahl, Buddy, Taranto, Turner, Miles (Butler, Eddy)

What is shaping up as the final squad. Deep mid and Hickey starting as the potential breakout player considering I don't think we'll see any of Longer this season.

Any thoughts or suggestions would be really appreciated!!

Love that your taking the punt on Hickey. It obviously gives u a deep 6 mid. Would do what KLo suggested and do miles to pickett as i dont think miles has good js and florent to fwd line onfield.

 

[PlaymakerX]

Good structure. Marchbank and Taranto are too expensive to be sitting on your bench.

Thanks KLo30 - Do you recommend trading them out for someone cheaper or putting them on field - I have the (E) on Marchbank at the moment?

Thanks again

 

[KLo30]

Thanks KLo30 - Do you recommend trading them out for someone cheaper or putting them on field - I have the (E) on Marchbank at the moment?

Thanks again

Any expensive rookie (priced) needs to be played on the ground. What is your plan if Marchbank knocks out a 80+ score? Start a donut? Swap Hurley to Hodge? Swap Shaw to Adams and bring him down to the mids via Hibberd (who won't play rd 1)?


Edit: Hibberd named to play

 

[IDIG]

Alrighty, I've got my team listed below... I'm relatively content with how it all looks but I still have $243,000 left over and I'm not sure how to spend it.

DEF: Shaw, Rance, Laird, Marchy, Hampton, EVW (Otten, Stewart)

MID: Danger, Hanners, Treloar, Fyfe, Beams, O'Meara, Swallow, SPP (Barrett, Pickett, Deluca)

RUC: Sandi, Witts (Strnadica)

FWD: Dahl, Buddy, Greene, Roughy, Nank, Taranto (Butler, Eddy)

Cash Left: $243,000 (too much)
------------

Ideas how to spend it:
1. Upgrade Nank or Sandilands to Goldy.
2. Upgrade Laird to Doch.
3. Too many donuts in Deluca and Strnidica?
4. Upgrade O'Meara to a premo.
5. ?????

Really in a bit of a pickle here fellas.

Probably 4 for me, although 560k gets you Titch and that's it who isn't everyone's cup of tea.

Or maybe 4.5 and ditch Swallow but then you've only got 520k to spend which is not especially appealing either.

I'd be keeping an eye on D6 but we'll have a better idea tonight if EVW/Otten/Stewart will get the job done.

 

[KLo30]

Alrighty, I've got my team listed below... I'm relatively content with how it all looks but I still have $243,000 left over and I'm not sure how to spend it.

DEF: Shaw, Rance, Laird, Marchy, Hampton, EVW (Otten, Stewart)

MID: Danger, Hanners, Treloar, Fyfe, Beams, O'Meara, Swallow, SPP (Barrett, Pickett, Deluca)

RUC: Sandi, Witts (Strnadica)

FWD: Dahl, Buddy, Greene, Roughy, Nank, Taranto (Butler, Eddy)

Cash Left: $243,000 (too much)
------------

Ideas how to spend it:
1. Upgrade Nank or Sandilands to Goldy.
2. Upgrade Laird to Doch.
3. Too many donuts in Deluca and Strnidica?
4. Upgrade O'Meara to a premo.
5. ?????

Really in a bit of a pickle here fellas.

Probably 4 for me, although 560k gets you Titch and that's it who isn't everyone's cup of tea.

Or maybe 4.5 and ditch Swallow but then you've only got 520k to spend which is not especially appealing either.

I'd be keeping an eye on D6 but we'll have a better idea tonight if EVW/Otten/Stewart will get the job done.

Swallow to SPS and then JOM to Pendlebury (or anyone you like)

 

[IDIG]

Swallow to SPS and then JOM to Pendlebury (or anyone you like)

This is pretty much what I did with my team overnight lol

 

[grantiscool]

Swallow to SPS and then JOM to Pendlebury (or anyone you like)

This is possibly a go. Two minds about it...

Pros: More premiums... Allots me to turn JOM to Pendles and Swallow back to Beams.

Cons: Miss out on 'possible' value with JOM and Swallow. Trade down Stewart to Guthrie in the back line to afford it. SPS is hard to gauge what he will score at 189k.


Damn it's been tough this year! My usual strategy has been to set and forget the rucks and build around that. So much uncertainty here! Thanks for the feedback guys.

 

[grantiscool]

This is pretty much what I did with my team overnight lol

so you ditched them both too IDIG? What was your reasoning?

 

[IDIG]

so you ditched them both too IDIG? What was your reasoning?

Risk management through that line for the most part, and I'm not sure about Swallow and what role he'll play.

They both probably would've stayed if the rookies down forward didn't appear but seeing they have I've changed my structure to suit.

I agree with your pros and cons. If they both fire, we'd have missed 2 cheap mid pricers with near premium output against 20-50% of the comp, which would more than likely have us playing catch up from round 1.

 

[grantiscool]

Risk management through that line for the most part, and I'm not sure about Swallow and what role he'll play.

They both probably would've stayed if the rookies down forward didn't appear but seeing they have I've changed my structure to suit.

I agree with your pros and cons. If they both fire, we'd have missed 2 cheap mid pricers with near premium output against 20-50% of the comp, which would more than likely have us playing catch up from round 1.

It's a tough one. They're both definite risks. Both have injury clouds with only really JOM being the one I was confident would score 80's upwards.

Overall, I'm already looking like I'll be taking the risk at ruck with Sandi/Witts/Nank so I think it may be better to play it safer in the mids.

 

[PlaymakerX]

Any expensive rookie (priced) needs to be played on the ground. What is your plan if Marchbank knocks out a 80+ score? Start a donut? Swap Hurley to Hodge? Swap Shaw to Adams and bring him down to the mids via Hibberd (who won't play rd 1)?

Mate you're on the ball haha. I didn't actually look at all angles for if Marchbank scored well, but you've covered a few good avenues there for me to think about.
I'm starting to think i have too many Tigers/Blues now: Docherty, Marchbank, Pickett, Nankervis, Butler.. but i guess most those are likely to be traded off down the track.

 

[KLo30]

Mate you're on the ball haha. I didn't actually look at all angles for if Marchbank scored well, but you've covered a few good avenues there for me to think about.
I'm starting to think i have too many Tigers/Blues now: Docherty, Marchbank, Pickett, Nankervis, Butler.. but i guess most those are likely to be traded off down the track.

Butler will be out of my team with the news of rookies from other sides. In all likelihood Marchbank won't be needed down back.

 

[tnk64]

Made this post elsewhere, and though I've gotten a lot of likes, I've gotten very little feedback. If anyone here can offer it I'd be very grateful!

Hi all, I'm interested in getting feedback on this team. Of course I'm more interested in the assessment of my reasoning than just "Pick/don't pick player x, who is a gun/spud". I've been pretty unsuccessful in my two years of Supercoach so far, so any general strategy/tactics (including whether I've misinterpreted my cited sources) I seem to need will be more than welcome. To that end, I've included my reasons for omitting some of the really popular picks, and would appreciate feedback as to the soundness of such reasoning.
Backs​
Selections ($2,346,100)

Heath Shaw ($576,500). Has scored really well and played 22 games for the past two years. He therefore strikes me as the player with the highest probability of ending the season as a top 6 back. His average actually dropped slightly last year. Players who do this tend to improve their average the following season [1].
Rory Laird ($526,800). Similar to Shaw, albeit with a bit more injury risk, and probably a higher likelihood of further increasing his average. Basically just a deliberate cookie-cutter pick.
Tom McDonald ($488,200). Another player who has scored well and played 22 games the last two years now. Has a very high ceiling and is still young enough that he could improve. His slight decline last year bodes well for his value this year [1].
Caleb Marchbank ($236,100). Cookie-cutter rookie selection. Seems to be general consensus amongst Carlton supporters that he's a best-22 lock and he scored pretty well in the JLT.
Curtly Hampton ($160,000). Similar to Marchbank, but thankfully with a significantly lower price.
Andy Otten ($123,900). Looks likely to get a few games at the start of the year and in a Supercoach friendly role.
Tom Stewart ($117,300). Really cheap rookie who looks likely to play the first few rounds at least.
Joel Smith ($117,300). Similar to Stewart. The fact that he's being considered in spite of his prior injury bodes well for his job security.

Omissions

Sam Docherty ($591,600). Increased his average by 20+ points last year. This historically does not bode well [2].​
Taylor Adams ($527,800). Highly injury prone, meaning that it's very likely he'd have to be traded out. At his price I would want someone with a lower probability of wasting a trade.​

Midfielders​
Selections ($4,393,400)​

Patrick Dangerfield ($716,900). Basically just a cookie-cutter pick, I'm not nearly as bullish on him as most people seem to be. For one, I'm expecting his average to drop this year, after he 12 point rise last year after what had already been a PB season in 2015. I'm also not so sure about the argument based upon Geelong's easy start to the year, since he doesn't seem to be much of a flat-track bully scoring wise. But the general consensus seems to be that any average of 120+ would still make him a worthwhile pick, given his ceiling and therefore potential value as captain. I'd certainly back him to do that.
Adam Treloar ($605,400). A fairly young player who has scored consistently well and missed very few games for the past three years now. Still offers potential to improve, especially given that his preseason this year has been much better than it was last year.
Nat Fyfe ($573,500). A clear violation of my general rule not to pick injury prone premiums. His ceiling relative to his price however means that I think I have to start with him.
Tom Mitchell ($565,600). Another reasonably young, consistent player. His move to a now depleted Hawthorn midfield gives him plenty of opportunity to win the ball, as he has demonstrated in the JLT! The usual tagging caveat that would come with such a move seems unlikely given his relatively ineffective disposal.
Dyson Heppell ($513,300). Yet another young, consistent player, but with the added bonus of a 10% discount courtesy of your friendly neighbourhood injection program. Hasn't left my side all season.
Dayne Beams ($432,500). Has averaged ~115 since 2012, but is priced to average under 80. He's injury prone, but I'm willing to take that risk on a mid-pricer. Assuming that three mid-pricers are equivalent to one gun and two rookies, and assuming that the latter approach will require an average of two trades, the mid-pricers need only a one-in-three chance of being a keeper to actually save a trade.
Jaeger O'Meara ($318,900). Similar to Beams, but with lower scores and, thankfully, a lower price. I'm particularly excited about his age: Jaeger is now in his fifth season, albeit only his third playing season. Players going into their third years improve their average by a mean of 7 points [3]. Players in their fifth years will have by an average 16 points compared to their second year [3]. Of course, I would expect something closer to this former in his case, but even that would bring him just under 105, which would be an absolute steal at his price.
David Swallow ($280,200). Similar to the above, but cheaper still and probably with a lower ceiling. I'm willing to take all three on the basis of the trade saving reasoning explained under Beams.
Sam Powell-Pepper ($135,300). Don't think I really need to justify him. Would've liked to have started him on the field, and would predict an average of 70-80, but the abundance of mid-pricers has pushed him to the bench.
Jake Barrett ($127,900). Similar to Powell-Pepper, contingent of course upon Brisbane upgrading him from the rookie list.
Jarrod Pickett ($123,900). Another cookie-cutter rookie, who thankfully has been selected for round one. Offers my only DPP link.

Omissions​

Scott Pendlebury ($645,700). Would've liked to have started him but he doesn't really fit with my structure. He's also had some slight injury problems. Will be an upgrade target.

Rucks​
Selections (896,600)

Todd Goldstein ($588,400). Has been a consistently high scorer for the last few years. Last year he not only continued that trend but also showed a remarkable resilience for playing through injury. As someone whose average dropped by over 20 points last year, he can be expected to at least equal it this year [1].
Aaron Sandilands ($308,200). Yet another injury prone mid-pricer. His JLT form was very impressive, suggesting that he still has a very high ceiling. Has the potential to offer both significant cash generation and high scoring. If, for instance, he scored 100 in every game until round ten - in fact a significant drop on his past two full seasons - his price would rise by over $170k [4]. And he'd only need to make it to round five to gain $100k [4]. With this value, combined with his ability as a mid-pricer to save a trade, his reward seems to far outweigh his risk.
Jarrod Witts ($217,600). That being said, Sandilands does still provide a lot of risk, particularly for late withdrawals. The selection of Witts is largely to counterbalance that. Although rather expensive for a rookie, I also like Witts' cash generation potential. As Gold Coast's first-choice ruck I'd say his unlikely to average below 65. At this point he'd already be below even Lobbe 2015 and Leuenberger 2016 - and I'm not sure it's possible to be much worse than them. But even then he'd have gained $94k by round 10, even assuming a standard deviation of zero [4]. In a more optimistic scenario wherein he averages 80 he would have risen over $160k by then [4]. Given the scarcity of quality rookies this his year his price seems worth paying.

Omissions

Max Gawn ($645,000). Gawn is coming off a 16-point career high. This doesn't quite put him in the CLYP category [2], but still suggests he is likely to be rather overpriced. Rucks in particular have seemed prone to fall off the cliff after massive breakout years (e.g. Minson, Lobbe, Leuenberger, Jacobs). Even without the risk posed by Spencer, I'd be inclined against him.

Forwards​
Selections ($2,121,800)​

Luke Dahlhaus ($520,700). His average last year was severely affected by games in which he'd gotten injured early on. Given that his previous history of injury is relatively minor, I'd be less worried about him being an injury-risk premium. He's a very popular pick, so I don't think he needs much more justification.
Jack Macrae ($511,700). Similar to Dahlhaus, with the added bonus of age [3].
Jarryd Roughead ($367,100). My final mid-pricer, with much of the typical reasoning applying. He's averaged 95+ in every season since 2011, but is at a significantly discounted price. I'm no medical expert, but I'm pretty sure the cancer is unlikely to affect his play this year, and he seemed pretty lively in the JLT. Hawthorn giving him the captaincy shows a real vote of confidence in him. I think I'd be happy with any average above 90, but am more than willing on this area to hear feedback about what I should count as a successful season, as I certainly wouldn't expect him to go any higher than that.
Tim Taranto ($207,300). Generic rookie pick. Scored well in the JLT and seems to have decent job security.
Kayne Turner ($171,400). A rookie who will get games, not much more to say. If not selected for round one he will be out.
Teia Miles ($123,900). Similar to the above, but at a lower price.
Brandon Parfitt ($117,300). Ditto.
Brett Eddy ($102,400). One of very few cheap rookies I'm confident with. He will play games early and at his price needs do very little to generate cash.

Team value: $9,975,500.
Sources
1. http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2077-Fallen-Premiums-A-Statistical-Viewpoint
2. http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/231-Chasing-last-years-points-(MkII)
3. http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/3288-100-Season-Players-Sorted-By-Age
4. https://www.dropbox.com/s/jsur8rpaz6b7bu2/2017SupercoachscoresPlanner.xlsx?dl=0

 

[jaca]

Hi tnk64,

Your team looks really well thought out. Not much to dislike in general. I'm not a fan of the Heppell pick, and would personally turn him into Pendles and downgrade one of JOM/Swallow.

Watch out today for rookies - good luck for the season!

 

[_Slip_]

Made this post elsewhere, and though I've gotten a lot of likes, I've gotten very little feedback. If anyone here can offer it I'd be very grateful!

Hi tnk64

Nice team. Players I think you should review are below:

Not sure McDonald is a top 6 defender.

Tom Mitchell and Heppell. I would run with one not both and get a more proven premium.

Good luck

 

[FirstTimer]

Power going down for two hours soon so would like any thoughts on any changers , as i have been considering
Mitchell to Selwood or Priddis and say Bowes to McCarthy or leave as is.
Thoughts on Witts v Krezuer ??? , heard Krezuer looking for big year
What's the word with rookies will there be any surprises tonight or are most mentioned here probably going to play


Def: Shaw, Laird, Adams , Marchbank, Hampton, Otten (Stewart, EVW)

Mids: Danger, Pendelbury, Bont, Fyfe, Tmitchell, Beams, O'Meara, SPP (Berry, Hibberd, Parfitt)

Rucks: Max, Sandi (Cameron)

FWDS: Dahlhaus, Macrae, Pertracca, Roughhead, Nankervis, Bowes (Pickett, Eddy)


Not left much in kitty .

 

[_Slip_]

Power going down for two hours soon so would like any thoughts on any changers , as i have been considering
Mitchell to Selwood or Priddis and say Bowes to McCarthy or leave as is.
Thoughts on Witts v Krezuer ??? , heard Krezuer looking for big year
What's the word with rookies will there be any surprises tonight or are most mentioned here probably going to play


Def: Shaw, Laird, Adams , Marchbank, Hampton, Otten (Stewart, EVW)

Mids: Danger, Pendelbury, Bont, Fyfe, Tmitchell, Beams, O'Meara, SPP (Berry, Hibberd, Parfitt)

Rucks: Max, Sandi (Cameron)

FWDS: Dahlhaus, Macrae, Pertracca, Roughhead, Nankervis, Bowes (Pickett, Eddy)


Not left much in kitty .

I wouldn't touch Kruezer with a barge poll.

Hasn't played a full season since 2009

 

[FirstTimer]

I wouldn't touch Kruezer with a barge poll.

Hasn't played a full season since 2009

Thx Slip it was just a thought / question lol ... and the other questions i asked about

 

[Presto]

Power going down for two hours soon so would like any thoughts on any changers , as i have been considering
Mitchell to Selwood or Priddis and say Bowes to McCarthy or leave as is.
Thoughts on Witts v Krezuer ??? , heard Krezuer looking for big year
What's the word with rookies will there be any surprises tonight or are most mentioned here probably going to play


Def: Shaw, Laird, Adams , Marchbank, Hampton, Otten (Stewart, EVW)

Mids: Danger, Pendelbury, Bont, Fyfe, Tmitchell, Beams, O'Meara, SPP (Berry, Hibberd, Parfitt)

Rucks: Max, Sandi (Cameron)

FWDS: Dahlhaus, Macrae, Pertracca, Roughhead, Nankervis, Bowes (Pickett, Eddy)


Not left much in kitty .

Assuming that Max is Gawn, I recon you are way over the salary cap


Shaw, Heath $576,500
Adams, Taylor $527,800
Laird, Rory 96.8 $526,800
Marchbank, Caleb$236,100
Hampton, Curtly $160,000
Vickers-Willis, Ed $123,900
Otten, Andy $123,900
Stewart, Thomas $117,300
Midfielders
Dangerfield, Patri $716,900
Pendlebury, Scott $645,700
Bontempelli, Marc$586,100
Fyfe, Nathan $573,500
Mitchell, Tom $565,600
Beams, Dayne $432,500
O'Meara, Jaeger $318,900
Berry, Jarrod $139,800
Powell-Pepper, Sa$135,300
Hibberd, Mitchell $123,900
Parfitt, Brandan $117,300
Ruckmen
Gawn, Max 118.5 $645,000
Sandilands, Aaron$308,200
Cameron, Darcy $117,300
Forwards
Dahlhaus, Luke $520,700
Macrae, Jackson $511,700
Petracca, Christia$395,600
Roughead, Jarryd $367,100
Nankervis, Toby $366,400
Bowes, Jack $171,300
Pickett, Jarrod $123,900
Eddy, Brett*[R] $102,400
Total $10,377,400

 

[bloke]

Need help spending cash

D: Rance, Laird, Adams, Otton, Hampden, Stewart (Guthrie, Smith)
M: Danger, Pendles, Fyfe, JPK, Treloar, JOM, SPP, SPS (Barrett, Pickett, Hibberd)
R: Goldy, Sandi (Str)
F: Dahl, Macrae, Greene, Roughy, Bowes, Butler (Parfitt, Eddy)

Have $205k. Is it rookies I need to spend on? I know I don't have Marchbank or Taranto but I have such a reluctance to start rookies over $200k if there are options that are cheaper. Thoughts?