Good post. Interesting comments about poorer U18 championships numbers often leading to a slow start to an AFL career.
B.Scott seemed to have decent numbers there - 102 SC for the U18C, 123 SC for AFL Academy Series.
I must admit my sample size isn't big enough to affirm that properly but playing well with tougher opposition seems to be a sign of more genuine playing ability rather than pure athleticism.
In 2018 we had Dow who scored 119 in the TAC cup and 98 at the u/18 champs, Uniacke averaged 134 and 82, Cerra 137 and 95, Brayshaw 131 and then 107, Hunter Clark 126 and then 72, Lochie O'Brien 99 and then 64 as examples.
Jack Higgins scored 141 in the TAC cup and then 151 at the u/18 champs. Worpel managed 104 in TAC cup and 102 at the u/18 champs. Lachie Fogarty, who was really good at the start of the year before falling off dramatically went 144 and 115. Rayner went 123 and 119, but his issue at the next level was to do with his fitness. Naughton managed 92 at the u/18 champs which is very high for a defender as the junior competitions don't seem to favour them.
Stephenson was a notable exception to this with a 117 average in the TAC cup and a 67 average in the u/18 champs.
It's not perfect by any means but an indication. I'd still rate Butters and Duursma on ability, Butters has a few other things that show he could score well despite a poor u/18 championship and he's cheaper than Hunter Clark or Davies-Uniacke were.