Strategy Round 2: Trades
- Thread starter doc ron
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Small sample size but likely going to swap the two dogs mids (Jack & Dunkley) for Neale and Viney.
They got smashed, but Bevo's rotations were out of control and players with high TOG will be valuable this year which the Dogs mids won't have due to the heavy rotations. Not to mention Libba will be back and with Hunter out, Macrae is every chance of being pushed out to the wing.
If this was a normal season I wouldn't do it but it's not so going to roll the dice.
They got smashed, but Bevo's rotations were out of control and players with high TOG will be valuable this year which the Dogs mids won't have due to the heavy rotations. Not to mention Libba will be back and with Hunter out, Macrae is every chance of being pushed out to the wing.
If this was a normal season I wouldn't do it but it's not so going to roll the dice.
Your right of course, not easy, but I have at least 6 rookies who are odds on to be dropped. At his price I don't mind leaving Budarick on the bench, but I need to hope for at least 5 replacement rookies who at least have a chance of earning some coin, but maybe wishful thinking.
I doubt many out there also have Zach Guthrie to contend with
I doubt many out there also have Zach Guthrie to contend with
I still think we need 8-12 bench downgrades (who knows if and when we will get viable downgrade targets) to fund 8 upgrade targets so that's 16-20 trades.
See what we can fix up this round and just go from their.
Think I will look to grab KPP , Georgiades (if named) , Sturt (if fit and named) , maybe Davis if I have too and maybe Green - > Robertson.
Can't really fix BZT & Starcevich at this stage.
Have Mahony & Williams who DNP Round 1 + Budarick , Cavarra , Green who are likely to miss , hoping Brown keeps his spot.
Pure conjecture & speculation at this stage until teams are announced , but just try and get as many of the 30 playing as possible.
I guess we will all pretty much be in the same boat.
Approx B/E for Rnd 2 =
Price x 3 / 5330 - Rnd 1 score - Price/5430
Roberton
260,400 x 3 / 5330 - 26 - (260,400 / 5430) = 72.6
Or if you want an easy approximate
Priced to score 260,400 / 5,430 = 47.96.
47.96 x 2 - 26 (rnd 1 score) = 69.52.
It's an approximate that comes in just under the actual number.
Where a player played enough games to not receive a discount, just double last years average, and deduct the Rnd 1 score.
ie Viney 80.9 x 2 - 186 = -24.2. (actual BE around -19)
As I say, it's approximate, but gives you a good idea, wth a simple process.
Price x 3 / 5330 - Rnd 1 score - Price/5430
Roberton
260,400 x 3 / 5330 - 26 - (260,400 / 5430) = 72.6
Or if you want an easy approximate
Priced to score 260,400 / 5,430 = 47.96.
47.96 x 2 - 26 (rnd 1 score) = 69.52.
It's an approximate that comes in just under the actual number.
Where a player played enough games to not receive a discount, just double last years average, and deduct the Rnd 1 score.
ie Viney 80.9 x 2 - 186 = -24.2. (actual BE around -19)
As I say, it's approximate, but gives you a good idea, wth a simple process.
Yeah I’m not too sure how Kelly will score.. that first game is probably not a real indication given the players were all a flat knowing it was the last game before lockdown.. he came into the game later so I’d expect him to improve as he learns the team? I wouldnt have any confidence Kelly can improve his scoring with a few other big bananas in the team.
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What are thoughts on what's the right number to trade this week?!
I'm thinking I'd try to max at 3 (rookie updates), in order to have a stack for the rest of the year when no doubt most of my midfield goes down with Hamstring Awareness... But not sure if that then leaves one too far behind those on 5 trades?!
I'm thinking I'd try to max at 3 (rookie updates), in order to have a stack for the rest of the year when no doubt most of my midfield goes down with Hamstring Awareness... But not sure if that then leaves one too far behind those on 5 trades?!
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Having done some more thinking, I'm actually starting to warm to a targetted aproach.
It's becoming clear to me that we need to plant a flag on the side of the higher impact players, those with the high SC: DT ratio - if you really want to separate yourself from the pack. Contested machines, Intercept markers, Goal kickers etc.
I feel like I underestimated the impact the shortened quarters would have (and yes, sample size of 9 games notwithstanding). It seems to me that the endurance beasts, the accumulators are going to be very steady - without the major scoring impact.
It's made me review the place of players I thought were no issues at all. The likesof Macrae, Whitfield, etc. The guys we're going to need to target are the SC beasts... Fyfe, Dangerfield, Grundy, Gawn, Bontempelli, Kelly, Sicily, Cripps, Greene, McGovern etc.
That's at the expense of guys like Macrae, Whitfield, Laird, Mitchell, Treloar, Lloyd, Gaff.
And yes, Bont and Sicily scored 70 odd in round one, which tells you that the standard deviation will be extreme, and why you need to select the highest quality. I reckon Harris Andrews could easily average 90-95, but you've got to be prepared for him to have a 20 point game.
I could be wrong - it's been known to happen - but there's been a defined shift in how I'm thinking about this season
It's becoming clear to me that we need to plant a flag on the side of the higher impact players, those with the high SC: DT ratio - if you really want to separate yourself from the pack. Contested machines, Intercept markers, Goal kickers etc.
I feel like I underestimated the impact the shortened quarters would have (and yes, sample size of 9 games notwithstanding). It seems to me that the endurance beasts, the accumulators are going to be very steady - without the major scoring impact.
It's made me review the place of players I thought were no issues at all. The likesof Macrae, Whitfield, etc. The guys we're going to need to target are the SC beasts... Fyfe, Dangerfield, Grundy, Gawn, Bontempelli, Kelly, Sicily, Cripps, Greene, McGovern etc.
That's at the expense of guys like Macrae, Whitfield, Laird, Mitchell, Treloar, Lloyd, Gaff.
And yes, Bont and Sicily scored 70 odd in round one, which tells you that the standard deviation will be extreme, and why you need to select the highest quality. I reckon Harris Andrews could easily average 90-95, but you've got to be prepared for him to have a 20 point game.
I could be wrong - it's been known to happen - but there's been a defined shift in how I'm thinking about this season
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T Stewart:
2018 Kardinia Avg: 83.33 from 9 (low of 18 and a high of 135, 5/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
2018 Kardinia Wins Avg: 83.75 from 8 (4/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)
2018 Kardinia Losses Avg: 80 from 1
2019 Kardinia Avg: 108.33 from 9 (low of 87 and a high of 124, 4/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)
2019 Kardinia Wins Avg: 106.38 from 8 (4/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)
2019 Kardinia Losses Avg: 124 from 1
2018 includes an injury affected 18 in RD19 (14%TOG). Removing that match increases the 2018 avg to 91.5 from 8 at Kardinia and 93.14 in wins.
Combined since 2018 (excluding the 18SC from 14%TOG):
2018-2019 Kardinia Park Avg: 100.41 from 17 (2/17 below 80, 8/17 below 100, 4/17 120+)
2018-2019 Kardinia Park Wins Avg: 100.2 from 15 (2/15 below 80, 7/15 below 100, 3/15 120+)
2018 Kardinia Avg: 83.33 from 9 (low of 18 and a high of 135, 5/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
2018 Kardinia Wins Avg: 83.75 from 8 (4/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)
2018 Kardinia Losses Avg: 80 from 1
2019 Kardinia Avg: 108.33 from 9 (low of 87 and a high of 124, 4/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)
2019 Kardinia Wins Avg: 106.38 from 8 (4/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)
2019 Kardinia Losses Avg: 124 from 1
2018 includes an injury affected 18 in RD19 (14%TOG). Removing that match increases the 2018 avg to 91.5 from 8 at Kardinia and 93.14 in wins.
Combined since 2018 (excluding the 18SC from 14%TOG):
2018-2019 Kardinia Park Avg: 100.41 from 17 (2/17 below 80, 8/17 below 100, 4/17 120+)
2018-2019 Kardinia Park Wins Avg: 100.2 from 15 (2/15 below 80, 7/15 below 100, 3/15 120+)
