Strategy Round 2: Trades

[donnybuang]

Always fun reading this thread after Round 1 each year. Months of planning and tinkering for everyone to lose their minds and make rash decisions. Why pick the Daniher, Fantasia, Duggan etc types in the first place only to turn around and get rid of them after 1 game?

For me, it's the guy who I had least confidence in prior to round 1, but picked him anyway. Now I've seen him play, very tempted to offload him.

 

[The Banker]

Rowell owner here, which derailed all the heavy lifting from the weekend. Think I’m going down to Heppell. I can’t go up, and I just feel like picking a Taranto, LDU type etc will mean I’ve got to stick with them. Going down to Heppell feels like the right move because the level of scoring and role for $320K seems solidified, (it’s just the body that might let me down) even if it is committing another trade in future.

 

[Shannon]

Thanks mate, doesn't seem overly positive

If you had him in your SC team, do you think he's a wait and see or get rid of?

I would wait 1 more week just to confirm his role - the other concern is Shuey is due to return either this week or next week. The surprise was how much time Redden got in the middle - I think he was playing a defensive role there allowing Kelly & Sheed to be more offensive.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

For all those getting excited about mid priced players.. a word of caution.

Tom Liberatore in 2019.

After a few rounds he was the must have player:

View attachment 27508

scoring.. making money.. the dream! But then things turned...

View attachment 27509

Finished the year averaging 82.4 from 15 games and +27k on his starting price.

If you had started him, brilliant. You have no issue upgrading him as the tide turns.. 1 trade and a little cash netted you a fallen premium.

But for anyone who traded him in, either made the same or less cash (if you'd waited a week too long) and used 2 trades to turn him into a premium. Yuck.

Obviously only one example and there are probably countless that paint the opposite picture.. but sometimes we SCers get rose coloured glasses about these things so some perspective never hurts!

Great post!

Another that I remember is Zaharakis from 2016. He started with a 132 and 133. Heaps jumped on after round 2, then he averaged 82.2 for his remaining 19 matches of the season.

 

[Johnsy44]

90% sure will trade Danger this week. Zorko is the clean straight swap for me, with Heeney in behind. However, very well considering Heppell/Caldwell and plenty of cash. Have Flyntereek in the ruck, and have a feeling it may just become a disaster. Currently have 70k, so the 360k will give me plenty of escape options if needed

 

[Matt]

One for the brave thrill seekers

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1373817722815975424

 

[Chumpion]

Great post!

Another that I remember is Zaharakis from 2016. He started with a 132 and 133. Heaps jumped on after round 2, then he averaged 82.2 for his remaining 19 matches of the season.

Spot on! Just looked him up.. flying after 4 rounds and then the wheels fell off in a big way from round 5 onwards. Actually ended up losing ~5k on his starting price!

 

[Crowls]

Thoughts on Jaidyn Stephenson with his role and opportunity - possible 95+ average?

Considering upgrading Daniher to Stephenson this week but obv Stephenson would have to be a keeper otherwise it's a wasted trade.

Do not see the benefit over the season in this. You are correct Steph would need to be a keeper. What is the likelihood of this happening?

Suggest you assess and consider the kids headspace. Stepho has a lot more to do to prove he has matured as a person. If he is just same old Stepho now at North he will do something stupid throughout the season. Less riskier options to consider. Saying all that if he played wing all year and kept his head out of the clouds he has the skill to be a good scoring option. Not for me though.

 

[froffershanners]

Any love and thoughts on Boak?

Started strong last year as well then hit a lull mid season before flying towards the finish as well.

123.8 average in his first 5 games, 88.4 average in his middle 7 and 126 average in his last 5.

All in all think he will fluctuate during the year so don't think he is worth a sideways trade from any playing premium.

As far as a swap for Danger or Rowell he could be a good POD.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I'm interested in this one too, lol.

He seemed to be going OK at half time, but went out of the game after that did he have a roll change?

I got burnt by trading Brayshaw out early last year, so don't want to be burnt again, but if he is not going to get a favouralble roll going forward, might be best to cut losses now and move on.

I also need to get Flynn on ground so one of Gawn or Grundy probably need to go. Grundy probably the one to go I guess.

Don't like trading premiums, but can't have potentially the best scoring rookie on the bench with nothing to do.

I think Duggan may have got a knock later in the game

 

[BIGB0Y]

Is jack bowes 148 score a one off or is he worth considering as a POD? Looked good and went at 100% DE from 30 possessions.

 

[randomcliche]

Ah - if you’re able to go back to someone you liked previously, that’s even better.

I would apply that logic to your Danger replacement as well.

Personally Bowes seems by some distance the highest risk, albeit his role sounded very good. Oliver and Titch would normally be rock solid, but some preseason concerns do worry me a bit, especially the risk of them being fatigued late in games/after a few games (I know Titch killed it in the second half). I would probably err on Dusty or Daniel (both of whom I have - the others I don’t).

Thanks, Daniel does is a Legit good pick, just gotta get my mind there...

I think what you saw on the weekend from Cumming is about what to expect. Will get given the ball a bit to send it out, has a long kick but not an effective kick, a fair few turnovers, and poor defensively, until he gets dropped.

Thanks, I'll add JS concerns and decrease the expected scoring a little, that kick to no one in the final quarter was abysmal.

Any love and thoughts on Boak?

Over the age threshold I like for my team, but new rules, appears better suited to than Wines (Wines I thought without an injury interrupted preseason/season would be great)

 

[Leroy]

Is jack bowes 148 score a one off or is he worth considering as a POD? Looked good and went at 100% DE from 30 possessions.

I think the question almost says it all doesn't it? 30 disposals at 100% DE is not normal output for football players over a season and is definitely a one off.

Using those numbers, if he averages 25 disposals at 80% DE over the remaining rounds (still amazingly good) he'll average around 100.
Which I still think is more than what he'll end up at.

 

[Spifflicator]

Is jack bowes 148 score a one off or is he worth considering as a POD? Looked good and went at 100% DE from 30 possessions.

I would be wanting a bigger sample size than 1 before thinking he is a good idea. At his breakout level price he has to be a keeper i.e. Top 6-8 defender or you have wasted a trade. Is he better than Lloyd, Mills, Daniel, Laird, Ridley, Stewart, Ryan?

(Same with the rookie rucks. If you started them then great, if you are trading into them now you going to be making a minimum of 4 trades in the ruck this year, to get back to the guys you started with.)

 

[Grundogging]

Is jack bowes 148 score a one off or is he worth considering as a POD? Looked good and went at 100% DE from 30 possessions.

At his rather awkward price he'd want to be a top 10 defender across the season to be worth it, when you factor in the opportunity cost of burning an early trade versus holding onto it for later on in the season.

Watching the game he did benefit from taking most of the kick ins and the old, slow-looking Eagles were basically nowhere to be seen for most of the game when it came to stopping the Suns from exiting their D50. His 28 kicks at 100% DE are also firmly in the category of unicorn numbers.

He's probably on the wait-and-see list, but not one to be taking a chance on just yet imo, especially if you're going sideways.

 

[BIGB0Y]

I think the question almost says it all doesn't it? 30 disposals at 100% DE is not normal output for football players over a season and is definitely a one off.

Using those numbers, if he averages 25 disposals at 80% DE over the remaining rounds (still amazingly good) he'll average around 100.
Which I still think is more than what he'll end up at.

Do you think hunter would be a better pick?

 

[pizza safety]

McGrath looks tailor made if the less stoppages is a thing.

I think the openness could help him, but not the lack of stoppages. McGrath was ranked 19th in the league for average clearances last year and 13th for average clearances if you take out his injury affected game.

 

[TommyGobbler]

Another thing to consider re: Jack Bowes is that Jarrod Harbrow didn't play (Listed as an emergency). If he were to come into the side I'd imagine he'd take away some of that kick-in/HBF work that Bowes got.

 

[BIGB0Y]

I think the openness could help him, but not the lack of stoppages. McGrath was ranked 19th in the league for average clearances last year and 13th for average clearances if you take out his injury affected game.

Do you think he could be a top 10 mid by season end? Looked dam good on the weekend and differently has the potential.

 

[Grundogging]

After looking at things this morning I'm thinking I might just sit on Rowell as a donut for a few weeks (still fielding 4+4+1+3 premos outside of Rowell). Longer term view on him would be to either keep him (if the knee injury isn't too bad) or use him as a stepping stone for a premo who has gotten off to a slow start.

I'm thinking the trade I need to make this week is bringing in Gulden for Brockman. I don't have Jordon either but I might have to pass on him.

Does this look like a reasonably smart strategy going forward, both in terms of using Rowell as donut for a while and bringing in Gulden as a rookie correction, or am I barking up the wrong tree?