Strategy Round 6: Trades

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Carlton
Yes, i have 3 of the 4 you mention, also have Walters.
DSmith is already in the MIDS after a bit of shuffling last week to get King's score.

It's certainly one of the options to consider as I've played around with different scenarios.
I'll wait and see what happens at the team drop tonight.

I think Aarts might be good for some short term cash generation, but I've never been a fan of small FWDs for long term points output.
I've got him in my nice to get, but not imperative list.
Do you think with the likely return of Pickett that getting Aarts is a little too Richmondy? ?
 
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i must say I don't know too much about him, will definitely downgrade if others aren't named tonight.
Here was his write up after the preseason on the HSun

5. Tobe Watson (Freo) - $123.000, Def

Marsh series scores: 62, 42

After averaging 17 disposals in the WAFL during his first year on the Dockers’ list – and rating elite for marks and above-average for intercept possessions, intercept marks, spoils and score involvements – the 190cm defender has put himself in the Round 1 mix after an impressive summer. The mature-age recruit finished disposal tallies of 13 and 14 and is the only $123k defender to have played both his club’s Marsh Series matches.

PHANTOM’S MARCH VERDICT: If you don’t know, now you know. Watson is one of only a few bottom-price rookies likely to see early-season action, making him a great SuperCoach bench option.
 
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Carlton
This might sound very stupid... but I am wondering what the best way is to attack 2020 in pursuit of full premo.

Value, value, value and get the team done quickly,
500k mids, 450k fwds and defs

Proven scoring options with a heftier price tag,
600k mids, 550k fwds, 525k defs

The balanced approach
550k mids, 500k fwds, 475k defs

For this case study, my 'full premo' includes all players that score 80 - 90, even though this output would not be acceptable in a regular season, i.e. Pittonet R2, Dev Smith F6, Viney M8, Houston D6... you get the point. The bottom line is, there are no rookies on field. Luxury sideways trades can be made later.

I suppose that if we take the balanced approach, we might be full premo by the start of round 12 or 13 (this is best case, without LTI's to popular players, unlikely). Let's say you are full premo at the start of round 13.

By going the value path, we probably only hit full premo one or maximum two games earlier. We target players like Yeo, Cogs, Baz Smith, Jack Steven, etc. We use less trades to achieve full premo because we save $$$ on every trade. After trading in 3 x 450k players instead of 3 x 600k players means you have already saved 450k which could essentially be another value premo. Full premo at the start of round 12.

The old 'aim for the top 6 - 8 in each position could take another trade or two compared to the balanced approach, delaying full premo by approximately 1 more week... full premo at the start of round 14.

But of course for rounds 14 - 17, you have the strongest 22 onfield, and the bargain hunters are leaking points but they already opened up a lead by reaching quasi-premo two rounds earlier.

The balanced approach seems the obvious answer but this really seems to me like the $50k question. Keen to hear the wisdoms of the community and would be especially keen to hear an opinion on this from someone who fancies their maths skills.
I'm no star unlike some on here but in my head I am looking for a "full non rookie " team rather than full premo this year. Value trades are what I'm looking for.
However before the season I loaded up on my rucks with the big 2 and I have had Neale/Lloyd from the start also.
This was more luck than management as I was planning for 22 rounds.
 
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I'm no star unlike some on here but in my head I am looking for a "full non rookie " team rather than full premo this year. Value trades are what I'm looking for.
However before the season I loaded up on my rucks with the big 2 and I have had Neale from the start also.
This was more luck than management as I was planning for 22 rounds.
Agree that value is much more important this year than any other for trades.... full premo is a pipe dream only, especially with the rookies erratic scoring and job security this year!
 
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Carlton
I like Aarts and wouldn't mind Tyler Brown to him via Mahony (into mids) and then grabbing Ridley to replace Starcevich.
But then my midfield would be really weak this week.

The other option was Rowell/Starcevich >> Yeo/Ridley, so I guess it comes down to can I stomach 4 mid rookies for this round.
Thoughts?

1594258364090.png
 
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Am I crazy to be contemplating Lloyd over Ridley this week. I don't know why, but don't feel fully comfortable about Ridley. It's probably because I started him last year, and that didn't turn out that well. Someone tell me I'm crazy.
 
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I like Aarts and wouldn't mind Tyler Brown to him via Mahony (into mids) and then grabbing Ridley to replace Starcevich.
But then my midfield would be really weak this week.

The other option was Rowell/Starcevich >> Yeo/Ridley, so I guess it comes down to can I stomach 4 mid rookies for this round.
Thoughts?

View attachment 18620
You will not be the only one forced to play 4+ rookies
 
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Am I crazy to be contemplating Lloyd over Ridley this week. I don't know why, but don't feel fully comfortable about Ridley. It's probably because I started him last year, and that didn't turn out that well. Someone tell me I'm crazy.
Lloyd still likely to finish the season as number 1 defender. Had similar thoughts myself.
 
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Carlton
Am I crazy to be contemplating Lloyd over Ridley this week. I don't know why, but don't feel fully comfortable about Ridley. It's probably because I started him last year, and that didn't turn out that well. Someone tell me I'm crazy.
I'm letting him slide, probably need him to peak in a couple of weeks before considering. ?
 
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This might sound very stupid... but I am wondering what the best way is to attack 2020 in pursuit of full premo.

Value, value, value and get the team done quickly,
500k mids, 450k fwds and defs

Proven scoring options with a heftier price tag,
600k mids, 550k fwds, 525k defs

The balanced approach
550k mids, 500k fwds, 475k defs

For this case study, my 'full premo' includes all players that score 80 - 90, even though this output would not be acceptable in a regular season, i.e. Pittonet R2, Dev Smith F6, Viney M8, Houston D6... you get the point. The bottom line is, there are no rookies on field. Luxury sideways trades can be made later.

I suppose that if we take the balanced approach, we might be full premo by the start of round 12 or 13 (this is best case, without LTI's to popular players, unlikely). Let's say you are full premo at the start of round 13.

By going the value path, we probably only hit full premo one or maximum two games earlier. We target players like Yeo, Cogs, Baz Smith, Jack Steven, etc. We use less trades to achieve full premo because we save $$$ on every trade. After trading in 3 x 450k players instead of 3 x 600k players means you have already saved 450k which could essentially be another value premo. Full premo at the start of round 12.

The old 'aim for the top 6 - 8 in each position could take another trade or two compared to the balanced approach, delaying full premo by approximately 1 more week... full premo at the start of round 14.

But of course for rounds 14 - 17, you have the strongest 22 onfield, and the bargain hunters are leaking points but they already opened up a lead by reaching quasi-premo two rounds earlier.

The balanced approach seems the obvious answer but this really seems to me like the $50k question. Keen to hear the wisdoms of the community and would be especially keen to hear an opinion on this from someone who fancies their maths skills.
Great post.

Thought it would have generated greater interest and responses.

I for one will be continuing down the "value" route having recently brought in Butler , Ceglar & Ridley and just hope they continue/maintain their scoring to be viable season long keepers.

One of the issues I see is the lack of $$$ the likes of Budarick , Brown , McInerney have made so far (and 2 of them are likely to start losing $$$ if they keep their spots)

You almost need 3 $ 250k downgrade trades (making $ 125 k profit each trade) to then fund a single $ 625 upgrade trade , it simply is not going to work multiple times especially in the mids.

Hence why I see the likes of Hurn (?) , Menegola , Bailey Smith , Whitfield , Yeo etc etc as almost must have trade in targets the next 3-4 rounds.

Based on my own situation , I currently have 6 onfield rookies (not all guaranteed to play this week) that on current value I will need $ 1,471,500.00 to find them all to $ 500 k players (not taking into account current price / price drops for those trade in targets mentioned).

My current bank should be able to fund 3-4 of them.

My current bench consists of 4 DNP from last round and a couple with JS concerns so hoping that they can actually generate enough $$$ for the final 2 onfield rookie upgrades.

After that I will hope that everyone is scoring at that 90+ range and then possibly will be able to do "luxury sideways" trades.

Pittonet at R2 will be the biggest issue along with the likes of Sloane , D Smith , TJL etc etc.

I guess then the concern is will we even have adequate cover at D7 , M9 & F7 or even enough trades to fix things.

I am just taking the view of trying to fix my team week by week and hopefully be getting some competitive scores sooner rather than later.

I also need to work out what to do with Rowell , have a feeling tonight's teams might be bringing some rookie carnage.
 
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lappinitup

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Am I crazy to be contemplating Lloyd over Ridley this week. I don't know why, but don't feel fully comfortable about Ridley. It's probably because I started him last year, and that didn't turn out that well. Someone tell me I'm crazy.
Do you want Ridley this season? If so, probably best to get him now with his breakeven.

If not, Lloyd is a great trade and can't see you getting him much cheaper. Likely to be a top 2 defender by the end of season, and therefore from here on in.

I am hoping to end with Lloyd, Docherty, Laird, Hurn, Daniel....

Then any cheap fallen premium (I thought Ridley was still too risky last week and still not 100% sold, regardless I have missed him as a mid price break out candidate)
 
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