Opinion Rowsus Tables And Analysis Of 2015 Season

[Rowsus]

Scott Pendlebury

Season - 22 games at 116.2 (2014 21 games at 124.4)
MCG - 14 games at 117.4 (MCG wins 8 at 122.5, MCG losses 6 at 110.7)
Etihad - 3 games at 114.7 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 3 at 114.7)
Away - 5 games at 113.8 (Away wins 2 at 124.0, Away 3 losses at 107.0)
Wins - 10 games at 122.8
Losses - 12 games at 110.8

Of note...
He's a Superstar in SC, no doubt! In the last 4 seasons he has only had 11 games under 100 from 83 games. That's 86.7% of his games in the last 4 seasons he has scored 100+, and across those 4 seasons he has averaged 122.9.
In the last 4 seasons, when Swan doesn't play, Pendlebury only has 6 out of 10 scores of 100+, and averages 104.7!
In the last 4 seasons, Pendlebury has 20 scores between 120 and 134, and 24 scores 135+. That's incredible 44 out of 83 games in the 120+ area (53%), and shows he is a fairly reliable VC/C option...... BUT, it should be noted, it is a declining number! Look at it broken up by seasons!
[table="width: 500"]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]120 - 134[/td]
[td]135+[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2014[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2012[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
In totals of 120+ since 2012, that is 14, 11, 13, 6. As Collingwood declined, so did Pendlebury's "captain-worthy" scores. This is borne out in the last 11 games of 2015, where Collingwood only won 3 games, and Pendlebury only posted 3 120+ scores in those same 11 games. Well down on the 53% conversion rate we all enjoyed in the last 4 seasons. Two of those 3 scores came in wins. It should also be noted, in the 10 games Pendlebury played without Swan in the last 4 seasons, only one of them was 120+!

Is there any chance that this "slightly" down year can be attributed at least in part to his off season shoulder surgery thus making him an underpriced player coming onto 2016?

I guess there is always a chance that injury did somewhat reduce his output, either prior to the season or during the season.

Like many Pendlebury has been the backbone (with GAJ) of my SC team for probably the past 4 years, so looking forward, next year may be the first time since I have been playing that SP is not in my starting team.

I guess the thing that stood out to me was the fact that in the last 4 years he has had 11 scores under 100, but 4 of these were last year.

I guess the decesion going forward is was his reduced scoring capacity last year due to injury or other factor, or was it due to other factors such as age, other players having an increased impact, playing more forward or back in a 'sweeper' role.

I've picked him in starting team over the last few years mainly due to the fact that he is virtually a guaranteed 100 point score week in week out, more so than any VC/C benefit. It is a bit worrying that he had 4 games below the triple figure mark last year. This will definitely be my first season in a while whereby I, and I suspect many others, will have to think long and hard about him.

Pendles has been my first picked always. See my reasoning below.

2015 - 2nd highest scoring player overall
2014 - 2nd highest scoring player overall
2013 - Highest scoring player overall
2012 - Missed 4 games, ave 124.7
2011 - Highest scoring player overall

 

[Rowsus]

Steele Sidebottom

Season - 16 games at 104.2 (2014 19 games at 113.2)
MCG - 9 games at 99.2 (MCG wins 5 at 99.2, MCG losses 3 at 99.3)
Etihad - 2 games at 117.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 2 at 117.0)
Away - 5 games at 108.0 (Away wins 2 at 126.0, Away 3 losses at 96.0)
Wins - 10 games at 106.9
Losses - 12 games at 102.1

Of note...
I could have called Sidebottom's Rnd 1 score injury affected, as he only managed a TOG% of 55% before going off early in the last quarter with a broken thumb. Only problem is, he scored his 2nd highest score for the season (135), and was given 2 Brownlow votes! On his return from injury he spent most of the next few games in the back line. He was there so much, I was starting to get convinced he might get D/M in 2016. Unfortunately from that point of view, he swithched back to a more pure Mid later in the season, and I'd be surprised if they handed him DPP status now.
A lot of Sidebottom's key stats were down on his efforts in previous seasons:
Goals - 7, previous 5 seasons: 14, 19, 14, 25, 24
Tackles - 53, previous 5 seasons: 78, 77, 89, 107, 101
Inside 50's - 42, previous 5 seasons: 62, 58, 72, 71, 69
Contested possessions - 129, previous 5 seasons: 181, 178, 211, 158, 162
Yes, he played less games, but that doesn't fully account for the lower numbers. It does back up the idea of a role change, for at least part of the season.
Sidebottom only managed 3 120+ scores in 2015, after recording 7 in 2014. On superficial numbers he looks a little underpriced. On the reality that is Collingwoods list right now, it would appear a bit hard to take any of them as Mids, apart from maybe Pendlebury. How do you slice the Mid field time up now, with: Pendlebury, Swan, Sidebottom, Adams, Treloar, Aish, Greenwood and Crisp all fighting for a piece, then young players like De Goey needing some time in there to cement their development. It's in the too hard basket for mine, right now. Let's hope one or two of them fluke DPP status!

 

[Rowsus]

Dane Swan

Season - 21 games at 105.9 (2014 17 games at 86.4)
MCG - 13 games at 103.7 (MCG wins 8 at 108.0, MCG losses 5 at 96.8)
Etihad - 3 games at 103.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 3 at 103.0)
Away - 5 games at 113.2 (Away wins 2 at 101.0, Away 3 losses at 121.3)
Wins - 10 games at 106.6
Losses - 11 games at 105.2

Of note...
Swans 2015 is full of "good news and bad news". It was certainly a much better season than 2014, but still had its' share of flaws. The main part is: good news, he played like the Swan of old in quite a few games last season, bad news, he looked like age was catching up with him in a few games too. He's not going to be any younger in 2016! Let's look at a few stats, then see if we can marry them together.
[table="width: 600"]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]Games[/td]
[td]30+ Disp[/td]
[td]SC 120-134[/td]
[td]SC 135+[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2007[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2008[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2009[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]16[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2010[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]16[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2011[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2012[/td]
[td]18[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2014[/td]
[td]17[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

What we are seeing is a distinct decline in the number of games Swan achieves 30+ disposals, and also a decline in how often reaching 30+ disposals equates to a good SC score.
[table="width: 600"]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]% of games[/td]
[td]% of 120+ SC scores[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]30+ disp[/td]
[td]compared to 30+ disp[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2007[/td]
[td]18.2%[/td]
[td]150.0%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2008[/td]
[td]15.0%[/td]
[td]166.7%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2009[/td]
[td]72.7%[/td]
[td]87.5%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2010[/td]
[td]72.7%[/td]
[td]81.3%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2011[/td]
[td]71.4%[/td]
[td]66.7%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2012[/td]
[td]83.3%[/td]
[td]53.3%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]68.2%[/td]
[td]73.3%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2014[/td]
[td]23.5%[/td]
[td]50.0%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]52.4%[/td]
[td]45.5%[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
The deterioration is pretty consistent. It would suggest something like, Swan will achieve 30+ disposals in 40-45% of his games in 2016, and around 35-40% of those games will become 120+ SC scores. That gives him around 3 120+ scores in 2016! Not enough to be taken if he is Mid only, something to keep an eye on, if he is still M/F. In the last 3 seasons eight of his thirty 30+ disposal games have produced sub 100 SC scores. Between 2007 and 2012 only four of his sixty nine 30+ disposal games resulted in sub 100 SC scores. That's a huge difference, and I put it down to the quality and penetration of his disposal diminishing with age.

 

[Rowsus]

Adam Oxley

With no allowances for his 5 sub affected scores
Season - 17 games at 76.5 (2014 2 games at 16.0)
MCG - 10 games at 78.1 (MCG wins 6 at 90.7, MCG losses 4 at 59.3)
Etihad - 3 games at 87.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 3 at 87.0)
Away - 4 games at 64.5 (Away wins 2 at 64.5, Away 2 losses at 64.5)
Wins - 8 games at 84.1
Losses - 9 games at 69.7

If we remove Oxleys 5 sub-affected scores, his break up looks like this
Season - 12 games at 93.5 (2014 2 games at 16.0)
MCG - 8 games at 88.6 (MCG wins 4 at 90.7, MCG losses 4 at 59.3)
Etihad - 2 games at 117.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 2 at 117.0)
Away - 2 games at 88.0 (Away wins 1 at 98.0, Away 1 losses at 78.0)
Wins - 5 games at 114.0
Losses - 7 games at 78.4

Of note...
All 5 of Oxley's vests this year were red. This was the most red vests for any player under 197cm. Only David Hale (9 red vests) and Matthew Taberner (8 red vests) had more red vests than Oxley in 2015. As we can see in his non-sub affected analysis, if he can avoid too many vests in 2016 (there are no vests in 2016! ), he comes in at a pretty useful discounted price. Oxley certainly has FTB tendencies, as we can see by the huge difference in his winning games average and losing games average in the second analysis, but I am loathed to label such an inexperienced player as a FTB.

What a weird chart. Boom or bust. I think he got most of those red vests because he couldn't get into the game so maybe not as big a discount as we would like although with another year under his belt he might be able to work his way out of those bad games.

 

[Rowsus]

Taylor Adams

Season - 18 games at 97.9 (2014 12 games at 70.4)
MCG - 12 games at 96.3 (MCG wins 6 at 99.5, MCG losses 6 at 93.0)
Etihad - 1 games at 75.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 1 at 75.0)
Away - 5 games at 106.6 (Away wins 2 at 85.5, Away 3 losses at 120.7)
Wins - 8 games at 96.0
Losses - 10 games at 99.5

Of note...
40% of Adams' scores were 110+. From Rnd 11 he played 10 games at an average of 108.2, which also included a red vested 40 in Rnd 19. Without that vest affected score, he averaged 115.8 in his last 9 games. It's very reminiscent of Dayne Beams' finish to 2011. 6 of Beams' last 7 games that season averaged 124, and the missing 7th game was a 76, This signalled a corner turned for Beams, and he went on to average 122 in 2012! Coming into 2012 Beams had played 59 games, coming into 2016 Adams has played 61. He's probably tough to take in Collingwoods ramped up midfield, if he is Mid only, but very interesting if still M/F. Here's something else that might pique your interest in Adams. The top 5 clearance players, based on average clearances per game, in 2015 were: Fyfe 8.65, Gray 7.67, Priddis 7.63, JPK 7.50, Cunnington 7.29. Adams averaged 7.13 in his last 8 games, including the sub affected game, and 7.86 without the sub affected game!

 

[Rowsus]

Jack Crisp

Season - 22 games at 89.4 (2014 6 games at 85.7)
MCG - 14 games at 93.1 (MCG wins 8 at 102.4, MCG losses 6 at 80.8)
Etihad - 3 games at 69.7 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 3 at 69.7)
Away - 5 games at 90.6 (Away wins 2 at 84.0, Away 3 losses at 95.0)
Wins - 10 games at 98.7
Losses - 12 games at 81.6

Of note...
Played all 22 games, and apart from one game of 76%, his TOG% was above 80% in every game. Was M/F in 2015, and was given run with roles in a few games, that explains a few of his lower scores. It will be interesting to see if Macaffer makes it back to best 22, what effect it has on Crisp as a SC player. Has only played 40 games, and coming into his 5th season, so should be cherry ripe to step up, but it's a pretty congested Midfield at Collingwood right now.

 

[Rowsus]

Brodie Grundy

Season - 19 games at 90.6 (2014 15 games at 62.9)
MCG - 12 games at 92.8 (MCG wins 7 at 103.7, MCG losses 5 at 77.4)
Etihad - 3 games at 102.7 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 3 at 102.7)
Away - 4 games at 75.0 (Away wins 2 at 66.5, Away 2 losses at 83.5)
Wins - 9 games at 95.4
Losses - 10 games at 86.2

Of note...
There were a couple of very notable factors in Grundy's season. The first is the presence of Witts, and the affect that had on Grundy's SC scores. Here is the above table broken up into Witts, and no Witts.

We can see that 4 of Grundy's 5 100+ scores were non-Witts scores, and 7 of his 9 90+ scores were non-Witts scores. Grundy had 11 games where Witts didn't play, for an average of 96.0, and 8 games where Witts did play, for an average of 83.1. Pretty simple really.
The second part will be fairly obvious to a good few of you as well. Let's look at 7 scores of 95+, and who they were against.
[table="width: 600"]
[tr]
[td]SC[/td]
[td]Rnd[/td]
[td]Against[/td]
[td]Rucks[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]125[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]Geelong[/td]
[td]Blicavs/Vardy[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]119[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[td]Carlton[/td]
[td]Warnock/Wood[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]114[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]Ade[/td]
[td]Jacobs[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]108*[/td]
[td]17[/td]
[td]WBulldogs[/td]
[td]Campbell[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]105[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]Melbourne[/td]
[td]Gawn[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]98[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[td]St Kilda[/td]
[td]Longer[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]95[/td]
[td]19[/td]
[td]Carlton[/td]
[td]Kreuzer/Wood[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
*Witts played in Rnd 17
As we can see, apart from his good effort against Jacobs in Rnd 2, and possibly his Rnd 10 effort against Gawn, all of his good scores were against teams that gave up good Ruck scores to the opposition, week in, week out. This, combined with the Witts selection uncertainty, nearly makes Grundy unpickable this season, in my opinion. There also seems to be a corelation between Witts playing, and Collingwood playing the tougher Rucking teams. Once again, it seems obvious, but it all means Grundy will probably post 6 or 8 good/ok scores for the season, but probably even more disappointing scores!

 

[Rowsus]

Levi Greenwood

Season - 8 games at 79.5 (2014 19 games at 94.2)
MCG - 5 games at 95.0 (MCG wins 2 at 91.5, MCG losses 3 at 97.3)
Etihad - 2 games at 70.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 2 at 70.0)
Away - 1 games at 21.0 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 1 losses at 21.0)
Wins - 2 games at 91.5
Losses - 6 games at 75.5

Of note...
Comes into 2016 with a theoretical discounted price, after fracturing his ankle during the preseason. He played too many games to get an actual discount, but his subbed score in Rnd 20, and the fact that he never really got into the season gives him his discount. He's probably high up on the list of "the ones to miss out" when Collingwood debut it's new look Midfield, unless he can get a tagging job. Either way, it doesn't look like he'll be a productive pick in 2016.

 

[Rowsus]

Marley Williams

Season - 20 games at 85.7 (2014 15 games at 70.9)
MCG - 13 games at 82.2 (MCG wins 8 at 85.9, MCG losses 5 at 76.4)
Etihad - 3 games at 102.2 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 3 at 102.2)
Away - 4 games at 84.5 (Away wins 2 at 87.5, Away 2 losses at 81.5)
Wins - 10 games at 86.2
Losses - 10 games at 85.2

Of note...
4 100+ scores against easy teams (Carl x 2, Ess, GC) and 2 against tough teams (WC, Haw) including his season high score of 137 (WC). All in all, it's a pretty typical break up for a small Def. Quite often his score will come down to his role that week, and that is very much opposition dependant. Unlikely to improve to any great extent, as that would probably involve some Mid time, and that's going to be hard to get at Collingwood in 2016.

 

[Rowsus]

Jamie Elliott (FTB)

Season - 20 games at 76.6 (2014 17 games at 83.2)
MCG - 14 games at 77.0 (MCG wins 8 at 91.4, MCG losses 6 at 57.8)
Etihad - 1 games at 59.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 1 at 59.0)
Away - 5 games at 79.0 (Away wins 2 at 87.0, Away 3 losses at 73.7)
Wins - 10 games at 90.5
Losses - 10 games at 62.7

Of note...
Injured his back, and missed Rnds 16 & 17, then was subbed in Rnd 18 with only 36% TOG. Starting to play like a true small Forward, even if it is one with superior marking ability. Small Forwards are SC poison, and he is starting to look like poison now, too. Only managed to crack 20 possessions 3 times in 2015, which is also how many times he did it in 2014. All 9 of his scores that were on, or above, his season average were in wins. He actually qualifies as a FTB because his winning average is well in excess of his losing average, even allowing for his Rnd 18 subbed score of 29 in a loss.

 

[Rowsus]

Adam Treloar

Season - 21 games at 106.8 (2014 20 games at 107.5)
Spotless - 8 games at 113.1 (Spotless wins 6 at 111.2, Spotless losses 2 at 119.0)
Manuka - 3 games at 114.7 (Manuka wins 2 at 106.0, Manuka losses 1 at 132.0)
SCG - 1 games at 87.0 (SCG wins 0 at 0.0, SCG 1 losses at 86.0)
Interstate - 9 games at 100.9 (Interstate wins 3 at 124.7, Interstate losses 6 at 89.0)
Wins - 11 games at 113.9
Losses - 10 games at 99.0

Of note...
The analysis is largely academic, due to his shift to Collingwood.
It is interesting that he averaged 111.3 in his 12 games he reached by car or bus, within the NSW borders, and only averaged 89 in losses that involved getting on a plane. His break up could be represented as:
Interstate wins 3 at 124.7
NSW games 12 at 111.3
Interstate losses 6 at 89.0
Luckily, playing for Collingwood, he won't need to get on a plane too often!

 

[Rowsus]

Dyson Heppell

Season - 22 games at 104.8 (2014 21 games at 106.4)
MCG - 8 games at 107.5 (MCG wins 4 at 106.3, MCG losses 4 at 108.8)
Etihad - 9 games at 102.6 (Etihad wins 2 at 85.5, Etihad losses 7 at 107.4)
Away - 5 games at 104.6 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 5 losses at 104.6)
Wins - 6 games at 99.3
Losses - 16 games at 106.9

Of note...
His top 6 scores all came in losses! He's nearly the anti-FTB! There has to be a certain comfort in knowing a player can score well in losses. In fact, in losses of 40 points or higher, he averaged 118!
He had a tough spell in Rnds 16 - 19, where he averaged 86. In this period he averaged 8 clangers/game where he only averaged 4.5 clangers in his other 18 games. This 4 game period included his worst 3 games of the season for clangers, with 11, 10 and 8 in separate games. I tried to find a compelling reason for this 4 game horror stretch, and all I can come up with is this. After taking over the Captaincy from Jobe, when Jobe's season finished in Round 14, Heppell said after the Round 15 game, that he thought he was quite capable of being Captain in 2016. Cue the next 4 weeks being his worst for the season! Is it possible this weighed on him, or even more likely, opposition players got in his head with things along the line of: "Nice support for your skipper there last week champ" or "What does Jobe think of you claiming his job?!". This theory could be right, or it could be complete waffle, but it is true Heppell said he could handle the Captaincy in 2016, after the Rnd 15 game in 2015!

 

[Rowsus]

Michael Hibberd

Season - 21 games at 82.1 (2014 18 games at 91.4)
MCG - 7 games at 83.1 (MCG wins 3 at 82.7, MCG losses 4 at 83.5)
Etihad - 9 games at 82.3 (Etihad wins 2 at 78.5, Etihad losses 7 at 83.4)
Away - 5 games at 80.4 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 5 losses at 80.4)
Wins - 5 games at 81.0
Losses - 16 games at 82.5

Of note...
You have to admire his consistency last year. All 10 averages above between 78.5 and 83.5!!!
A few glaring problems in his table above. Only 2 scores of 100+ (5 in 2014, 8 in 2013) and 9 scores of 80 and lower (3 in 2014, 5 in 2013). He averaged 23.6 (79 DE%) disposals in 2013, and 24.5 (78 DE%) in 2014, but fell down to 22.2 (78 DE%) last season. Interesting, but doesn't explain his fall in SC score, especially the DE%. A lot of his stats across the board were just down that one or so. Things like 1%, CP's and bounces which all add up in a SC score, were down.

 

[Rowsus]

Brendon Goddard

Season - 22 games at 97.2 (2014 19 games at 102.1)
MCG - 8 games at 97.6 (MCG wins 4 at 95.3, MCG losses 4 at 100.0)
Etihad - 9 games at 95.9 (Etihad wins 2 at 106.0, Etihad losses 7 at 93.0)
Away - 5 games at 99.0 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 5 losses at 99.0)
Wins - 6 games at 98.8
Losses - 16 games at 96.6

Of note...
Went below 100 in SC average for the first time since 2007, when he only played 7 games due to injury, and averaged 90, after averaging 107 in 2006. More Rebound 50's, less inside 50's and less goals in 2015 than 2014 points to him getting more possessions further up the ground last season than in 2014. As we have seen with the likes of Cotchin in 2014, that usually leads to a drop in SC scores. Less contested marks, less frees for, less CP's all more than made up for, that he actually averaged around 3.3 more disposal in 2015, than 2014. Maybe all those possessions further up the ground will give him D/M DPP in 2016?!

 

[Rowsus]

Cale Hooker

Season - 22 games at 90.9 (2014 22 games at 79.0)
MCG - 8 games at 94.1 (MCG wins 4 at 100.5, MCG losses 4 at 87.8)
Etihad - 9 games at 87.8 (Etihad wins 2 at 88.5, Etihad losses 7 at 87.6)
Away - 5 games at 90.8 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 5 losses at 90.8)
Wins - 6 games at 96.5
Losses - 16 games at 88.6

Of note...
In 2014 Hooker scored 6 100+ scores in the first 8 Rnds, and averaged 102 to that point of the season. His next 14 games that season had top scores of 92 and 80, and he averaged just 66 in those 14 games! 2015 has a similar, if slightly better pattern. His first 4 games were all 100+ for an average of 116. His last 18 games he managed to crack 4 100+ scores, and 2 90-99 scores, and he averaged 85 in those 18 games.
He's 27, 196cm tall and has played 133 games. All that adds up to, that he is very unlikely to become a season long SC relevant player now, if he never had been before. Not many 27 year olds start adding strings to their SC bows at that age. It has happened, but not often. Players over 193cm tall, that aren't Rucks, or don't kick close to 3 goals/game don't score well in SC. Players with more than 120 games usually have their scoring pattern fairly well set in SC. Each of the last 2 seasons he has looked like a real win early on, and become very costly after that. Unless there is a permanent shift Forward, and to be honest, how would you ever really know it is permanent, you are probably better off without him.

Just an FYI every media interview that John Worsfold has been asked about Hooker so far he has stated that Hooker will play in the backline. Whether that remains the case once the season starts who knows, but Woosha does sound very certain about it.

Hooker will definitely play in the backline.

Essendon will play L Berger (when fit) 70% ruck and TBC deep forward and rucking the other 30% and probably JD / Smacker at CHF.

No need for Hooker to play forward unless injuries strike.

 

[Rowsus]

Zachary Merret

Season - 17 games at 88.5 (2014 19 games at 63.7)
MCG - 6 games at 84.7 (MCG wins 3 at 84.3, MCG losses 3 at 85.0)
Etihad - 8 games at 88.4 (Etihad wins 2 at 84.5, Etihad losses 6 at 89.7)
Away - 3 games at 96.3 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 3 losses at 96.3)
Wins - 5 games at 84.4
Losses - 12 games at 90.2

Of note...
Not many players, even 2nd year players, will play 19 games one season, then play as many as 17 games the next season, and score higher than his previous seasons SC average in all 17 games! A bit long winded, but I hope it makes sense. ie in every game in 2015 he scored higher than his 2014 average! Easy to achieve if you play few games in either season, harder to achieve the more games you play. Showed an ability to score high, with 2 130+ scores, but they were his only 100+ scores. There were only 3 scores between 90 - 99, which gives him a total of 5 90+ scores, which isn't a great sign. 12 scores between 73 - 88 shows some consistency, but not quite at the level required, though he could obviously improve coming into his 3rd season. With Chapman and Melksham gone, it might open a role change for Merrett Z. The 3 games he played without Melksham/Chapman in 2015 produced 88, 80, 140 (ave 103).

 

[Rowsus]

Jobe Watson

Season - 12 games at 92.6 (2014 14 games at 106.9)
MCG - 5 games at 96.6 (MCG wins 2 at 120.5, MCG losses 3 at 80.7)
Etihad - 4 games at 81.0 (Etihad wins 2 at 91.5, Etihad losses 2 at 70.5)
Away - 3 games at 101.3 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 3 losses at 101.3)
Wins - 4 games at 106.0
Losses - 8 games at 85.9

Of note...
You might suspect looking at that table, that Watson had a shortened game or two in there, but his lowest TOG% in 2015 was 78%. In some ways he looks like a bargain, but there is heavy risk involved. Counting backwards, his last 5 season game counts are: 12, 14, 19, 22, 16. Many have had the opinion that he is a 110-115/season player, but I'm more of the opinion he was a 110 player for most of the season/s, but managed to turn them into 106-108 seasons with some injury affected scores. Yes, he had his 121 and 112 season, but i would think that was his peak, and it has gone by now. If you take him, you need to dump him at the first sign of trouble. He can certainly string some high averaging spells together:
2015 - Rnd 1 - 5 ave 110
2014 - Rnds 1 - 11 ave 124 (Rnd 10 was a bye)
2013 - Rnds 1 - 9 ave 124
If you have faith, he could be a good Stepping Stone, but he is high risk.

 

[Rowsus]

Michael Hurley

Season - 19 games at 94.8 (2014 20 games at 85.9)
MCG - 8 games at 101.0 (MCG wins 4 at 105.5, MCG losses 4 at 96.5)
Etihad - 7 games at 92.1 (Etihad wins 2 at 104.5, Etihad losses 5 at 87.2)
Away - 4 games at 87.8 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 4 losses at 87.8)
Wins - 6 games at 105.2
Losses - 13 games at 90.2

Of note...
Very consistent MCG figures, and a strong FTB tendency in his Etihad numbers. This may be coincidence, or there may be something to it. Also, Hooker started to kick goals (ie play Forward a lot) in Rnd 14. Hurley averaged 106.5 in the 6 games he played from Rnd 15 on. Will the touted move of Hooker back to Defence have a negative impact on Hurley's SC? It seems quite possible! The other thing to consider is, that 2015 was a personal best, where his previous 4 seasons were: 86, 70, 73, 84. Do you want to take a player with question marks, coming off a personal best season? There would appear to be more down side than upside to taking that risk.

 

[Rowsus]

Lachie Neale (FTB)

Season - 22 games at 104.3 (2014 21 games at 87.2)
Home - 12 games at 107.3 (Home wins 10 at 112.0, Home losses 2 at 83.5)
Away - 10 games at 100.8 (Away wins 7 at 104.4, Away 3 losses at 92.3)
Wins - 17 games at 108.9
Losses - 5 games at 88.8

Of note...
Has always been an FTB, and this season was no different. In the 9 games where Fremantle won by 4 goals or higher, Neale averaged 127.1. He only averaged 88.5 in his other 13 games, and that included 8 winning games. He got right royally screwed in 2 or 3 of his scores this season, where he was given high 90's and low 100's in games that could have easily been scored 120-125, this would lift his average by around 3 or 4 points, if he was scored fairly.

Haha love it, still bitter Rowsus? Understandably, I am too, some of his scores, especially early in games, were unexplainable this season.

 

[Rowsus]

Nathan Fyfe

Season - 18 games at 124.3 (2014 18 games at 122.3)
Home - 10 games at 117.0 (Home wins 8 at 116.9, Home losses 2 at 117.5)
Away - 8 games at 133.4 (Away wins 6 at 146.5, Away 2 losses at 94.0)
Wins - 14 games at 129.6
Losses - 4 games at 105.8

Of note...
Fyfe had one home and one away game where he scored 128 in each game. It is interesting to look at the scores above and below 128. In his 7 scores above 128, 5 of them were in away games, including his 4 highest scores for the season. In his 9 scores below 128, 7 of them were home games. This is possibly random, or it represents a pattern. to be honest, there isn't enough data to be certain either way. As a comparison, in 2014 Fyfe averaged 128 at home, and 115 away. 5 of his top 6 scores were in close-ish games, with margins of between 4 and 14. This I think, becomes more relevant, when you look at his AF score in those games: SC:AF, 162:116, 158:150, 151:119, 146:109, 145:115, 138:110, 134:117, that's totals of 1034:836 or a ratio of 1.24:1. We would normally expect this to be more like 1.15:1. It also appears in 2014, where Fyfe's 2 top scores for the season were 171 and 158, his only 2 scores over 150, yet his AF in those games were 105 and 125 respectively for a ratio of 1.43:1. The margin in those 2 games were 5 points and 7 points, and were 2 of the three closest games Freo had for the season.
Bad news - his elite average appears to be dependant on scores that are amped up in close games.
Good news - Freo don't put too many teams to the sword. Well certainly not as many as Hawthorn, so Fyfe gets plenty of opportunities for the bonus points, for being "the difference" between the two teams.