Opinion Rowsus Tables And Analysis Of 2015 Season

[Rowsus]

Jack Martin

Season - 12 games at 71.6 (2014 11 games at 56.5)
Home - 5 games at 93.4 (Home wins 2 at 101.5, Home losses 3 at 88.0)
Gabba - 1 game at 76.0 (Gabba wins 1 at 76.0, Gabba losses 0 at 0.0)
Away - 6 games at 52.7 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 6 losses at 52.7)
Wins - 3 games at 93.0
Losses - 9 games at 64.4

Of note...
Martin had two games where he was red vested, if we take those out, his break up looks like this:
Season - 10 games at 81.8 (2014 11 games at 56.5)
Home - 5 games at 93.4 (Home wins 2 at 101.5, Home losses 3 at 88.0)
Gabba - 1 game at 76.0 (Gabba wins 1 at 76.0, Gabba losses 0 at 0.0)
Away - 4 games at 68.8 (Away wins 0 at 0.0, Away 4 losses at 68.8)
Wins - 3 games at 93.0
Losses - 7 games at 77.0

For all the hype, of him being the best prospect to come out of the Juniors in years, his performances haven't matched the hype. His lack of physical attributes is obviously a big part of that. He looks like in the short term at least, that most of his on-field time will be as a small Forward, and we all know how successful they aren't in SC! Maybe with time to thicken, or enough injuries, he will get Mid time, but he just looks too big of a risk until we know that is definitely happening. His penchant for getting injured doesn't add to his cause, either. He actually seems to have a little bit of Rioli about him, and Cyril hit 95 in his 3rd season, so Martin may not be a hopeless pick, just a very high risk one.

 

[Rowsus]

Matthew Lobbe

Season - 17 games at 72.1 (2014 21 games at 100.7)
Home - 10 games at 66.8 (Home wins 6 at 54.2, Home losses 4 at 85.8)
MCG - 1 games at 115.0 (MCG wins 0 at 0.0, MCG losses 1 at 115.0)
Etihad - 2 games at 73.0 (Etihad wins 1 at 77.0, Etihad losses 1 at 69.0)
Away - 4 games at 74.3 (Away wins 2 at 80.5, Away losses 2 at 68.0)
Wins - 9 games at 62.6
Losses - 8 games at 82.9

Of note...
Lobbe wore two red vests in 2016, but I'm inclined to ignore them. His TOG has been pretty consistent around the 85% mark the last 3 seasons, so it is reasonable to say, when comparing his year to year stats, that the vests had little or no affect.
I'm a bit worried about Lobbe's stats, but that is mostly countered by his lowish price:
1) In freowho's post om how Ruck's were affected by the new scoring, Lobbe came off worst, precentage-wise, according to the AFL Prospectus. He averaged 72.1 for the season, but under the old system would have averaged 83.4. While that can be rectified, and the possibility of him Rucking to a stronger Midfield in 2016 (Wines and Polec back) helps, it doesn't fill you with confidence.
2) While his tackling stats are good, averaging 4.6-6.5 in the last 3 seasons, he is only gathering a handfull of possessions around the ground. If we subtract his Clearances from his overall possessions we get an idea of how much he is involved in general play. In the last 3 seasons, with 2013 first, it leaves him with (D/E in brackets): 9.3 (62%), 8.9 (67%) and 6.5 (70%). It doesn't leave much margin for error. When you compare that to S Martin's numbers the last 2 seasons you get 18.7 (66%)and 16.9 (64%). Yes, there's a big difference in price, but Lobbe pretty much lives and dies on his Ruck work, and going by the Prospectus, he is one of the least efficient Rucks, in 2015 anyway.
3) The introduction of Ryder didn't have as much affect as I suspected. Lobbe's average Hitouts/game since 2013 are: 28.0, 31.7 and 30.4. Yes, Ryder had an affect on Port's overall Rucking, with their 3 season averages being: 38.6, 42.3 and 49.9. It reads like Lobbe isn't covering the ground so well, and only gets to X number of contests. Westhoff, Redden, Ryder whatever talls they have, cover the area's Lobbe's not getting to. Outside of that explanation, I don't see how Ryder can add 417 Hitouts to Ports tally in 2015, without drastically affecting Lobbe's numbers! Yes, he will likely record more Hitouts with Ryder gone, but those numbers have me questioning how many more!
For a player that seems to live and die by his hitouts, and is being seen as very popular on the back of two reasons (price, and Ryder out), I think we need to question exactly how much affect Ryder being out will have on his output, and therefore, whether Lobbe is the golden Stepping Stone those banking him at R2 are looking for!
The counter to these arguments is Port's draw:
Rnd 1 - StK, nearly all the Rucks were beating up on St Kilda in 2015.
Rnd 2 - Ade, Lobbe's scores against Jacobs going backward: 83, 45, 93, 105, 84, 83
Rnd 3 - Ess, who knows, but it could/should be an easy(er) opponent.
Rnd 4 - GWS, scored 94 in 2014 (no Mummy), and 64 in 2013 (no Mummy again, of course!)
Rnd 5 - Geel, against probably a Smith /Blicavs combo for the first time.
Rnd 6 - Rich, 104, 58, 86, DNP the last 3 seasons.
Rnd 7 - Bris 99 and 72 the last 2 seasons against Martin.
Rnd 8 - Carl, it probably depends on Kreuzer's fitness. 2015 115 (but Kreuz's 2nd game back), 83 and 76 2014.
They're actually not that impressive numbers, but the opposition in those 8 Rounds does contain a number of the Rucking easy beats. The question is, what do you think Lobbe can average against these teams, and what do you think he needs to average to suit your Stepping Stone requirements? I think you can be confident he will outscore his price..... I'm not as sure he will hit the low to mid 90's I think he needs to warrant his selection. He could do it, but this analysis has me going from probably locked, to probably not!

Of the 20 most expensive ruckmen available this year only McKernan and Stanley have a worse hitout to advantage percentage than Lobbe.

I think the hitout to advantage is garbage anyway. Apart from the few elite tap rucks who can get clean hands on the ball, the majority of ruck contests are a dogs breakfast where the ruck just tries to hit it in a general direction rather than to an actual player. Who knows how that will play out for him in 2016 because it depends so heavily on the midfield around him.

I think pre season could be a good indicator for Lobbe. If he bombs I'll stay away. If he outscores his price I'll keep him as a stepping stone / potential keeper.

Great analysis on Lobbe Rowsus! I think if he were 100k cheaper it would be an easier decision but it's really hard to assess him at 390k. He really needs to average high 90s-100s to get a decent ROI and based on his around the ground work, it doesn't look like he'll achieve that. One thing to note is during his back end of 2013 and 2014 season, he did show capability of going big (127,127,154 in '13 & 150,145, 178 in '14). If he can string a couple of those scores during Port's opening month against the easy rucking opponents, he might be able to act as that stepping stone everyone is looking for.

If he manages to get those scores, who would be trading him out for a goldie averaging 105 for example??? I know that is what we go into the season planning but it takes a lot of guts to pull dimmas cloke move

 

[Rowsus]

Dylan Roberton

Season - 20 games at 90.6 (2014 7 games at 49.7)
MCG - 2 games at 133.5 (MCG wins 1 at 144.0, MCG losses 1 at 123.0)
Etihad - 10 games at 92.3 (Etihad wins 2 at 98.5, Etihad losses 8 at 90.8)
Interstate - 8 games at 77.8 (Interstate wins 2 at 77.0, Interstate losses 6 at 78.0)
Wins - 5 games at 99.0
Losses - 15 games at 87.8

Of note...
Roberton seems to be your typical random tallish Def (194cm). There doesn't appear to be much rhyme or reason to when he scores well. Wins, losses, good teams, bad teams, small grounds, big grounds, interstate, he can throw in a good score at anytime. The problem is the consistency. 5 scores of 70 and under are going to make it hard to push your average up into the mid 90's. He certainly took a jump in average from 2014 (50 to 91). His TOG% went from 80% to 85%, so it wasn't entirely there that he got the improvement. Without something we can hang our hat on, it's hard to take him with confidence. He would seem to be priced up to his potential, but he has only played 84 games, so technically he is still in Break Out territory. Just in the too hard basket for mine, there doesn't seem to be enough upside, but there seems to be the potential for quite a bit of downside. The reward just isn't matching the risk.

 

[Rowsus]

Callum Sinclair

Season - 17 games at 75.9 (2014 4 games at 50.5)
Domain - 9 games at 84.0 (Domain wins 9 at 84.0, Domain losses 0 at 0.0)
Away - 8 games at 66.8 (Away wins 5 at 65.8, Away 3 losses at 68.3)
Wins - 14 games at 77.5
Losses - 3 games at 68.3

Of note...
Sinclair has changed Clubs, so the numbers above are largely academic.
We can only guess the answer to the most important question. Will Sinclair be the number one Ruck, with Tippett giving him a break, will it be a near 50/50 endeavour, or will Sinclair play relief to Tippett? Thanks to the Prospectus, we can see that Sinclair contested 44 Ruck contests/game in 2015, won 18.5 of them (42.3%), and 4.7 of them were H2A's (25.4%). That reduces down to 10.7% of the contests he attended, he managed a H2A, that's pretty poor when you realise there are 7 Rucks who have over 15% of contests attended resulting in a H2A. So they're not premier numbers, and given Sinclair has only 29 games experience, I wouldn't be surprised to see him and Tippett share the load. That's good if you like Tippett, as he will rest Forward and kick goals, it's not great if you like Sinclair. Still, it is just my guess. With only having those 29 games under his belt, he should still have plenty of improvement to come, as most Rucks don't reach their potential until at least 70-80 games. At his price, with the question mark over his exact role, he would seem to be too great of a risk.

 

[Rowsus]

Jarrad McVeigh (FTB)

Season - 20 games at 100.6 (2014 22 games at 104.5)
SCG - 7 games at 96.0 (SCG wins 5 at 102.4, SCG 2 losses at 80.0)
ANZ - 2 games at 108.5 (ANZ wins 1 at 115.0, ANZ 1 losses at 102.0)
Spotless - 1 games at 115.0 (Spotless wins 1 at 115.0, Spotless losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 10 games at 100.7 (Interstate wins 7 at 115.1, Interstate losses 3 at 67.0)
Wins - 14 games at 110.6
Losses - 6 games at 77.2

Of note...
McVeigh is a decent sized FTB, scoring 43% higher in wins in 2015, and 22% higher in wins in 2014. There is a little surprising thing in his stats. He performs better in wins on Medium/Large grounds, than he does on Small grounds. The main part I find surprising about that is, both his home grounds, ANZ and SCG are small grounds.
2015: 5 wins on Med/Lge grounds at 122.8, 9 wins on Sm grounds at 103.8
2014: 5 wins on Med/Lge grounds at 113.2, 12 wins on Sm grounds at 106.0
Comb: 10 wins on Med/Lge grounds at 118.0, 21 wins on Sm grounds at 105.0, 11 losses at 83.9
If you think this will be some sort of on going trend, then Sydneys draw makes selecting McVeigh to start in your team quit interesting. Especially as they have been known to be "slow" starters!
Rnd 1 - Small - Collingwood at ANZ
Rnd 2 - Small - Carlton at Etihad
Rnd 3 - Small - GWS at SCG
Rnd 4 - Small - Adelaide at AO
Rnd 5 - Small - WC at SCG
Rnd 6 - Medium - Brisbane at Gabba
Rnd 7 - Small - Essendon at ANZ
That's 6 out of the first 7 on Small grounds, where he doesn't really thrive. His 10 wins on Med/Large grounds have given scores between 96 and 151, but 109 is his 2nd lowest score! His 21 wins on Small grounds range between 60 and 143, but he has 7 scores below that 96 mark from his M/L wins, and only 8 scores above 109. So.....
Med/Lge ground wins 9 out of 10 scores at 109 or higher, and 0 out of 10 below 96.
Small ground wins 8 out of 21 scores at 109 or higher, and 7 out of 21 below 96.

His 105 average on smaller grounds isn't horrible and I'd back Sydney to at least win 5 of there first 7 matches.

Thanks for write up.

Rnd 1 - Small - Collingwood at ANZ (SCG, 125)
Rnd 2 - Small - Carlton at Etihad (SCG, 77)
Rnd 3 - Small - GWS at SCG (SCG, 107)
Rnd 4 - Small - Adelaide at AO (SCG, 143)
Rnd 5 - Small - WC at SCG (DS, 46)
Rnd 6 - Medium - Brisbane at Gabba (G, 124)
Rnd 7 - Small - Essendon at ANZ (did not play)

Above are the corresponding games in 2015 for McVeigh. An average of 103.66 across the 6 games he played, most of them on the smaller SCG. That average is slightly better than where he is priced at an average of 100.5, so at the very least you wouldn't expect him to drop in value much, if at all.

My concern is really his scoring history / trajectory. He is entering his 11th season so there's no reason to expect his scores to IMPROVE dramatically. No TOG change, no role change. He is what he is. His last 3 seasons have all seen his average decline. 2008 - 2012 he was a 93 - 99 average player. He had 3 solid seasons at 100+, but he's going backwards every year. I think an average of 90-95 is what you should expect from McVeigh in 2016 so I'd be basing my decision around that.

View attachment 839

His last 4 seasons are above 98, for a combined average of about 103, what makes you think he should drop over 8ppg from that? I think we should expect 100, with a range of 95-107.

Just a guesstimate really. Between '13 and '14 his output dropped 1.6%. Between '14 and '15 his output dropped 3.7%. If you dropped it by 3.7% again (being conservative) his average comes in at 96.79 for 2016.

If you went the other way, between '11 and '12 his output increased by around 4% and between '12 and '13 roughly 7%. If applied the same logic I am applying now and said his output would increase by a further 7% you would have estimated an average of 105 for 2013. He averaged 106. Coincidence, but based on some logic at least. 2 seasons is hardly a "trend" but all I am trying to do is pluck a number out of thin air. My point is that I believe his output will decline in '16, how much remains to be seen.

The other factor was that for 5 seasons his average was between 93.82 and 99.27. It seemed reasonable to give him an average somewhere in that range given his historical scoring.

I don't see his role / TOG changing. Sydney were a premiership side in 2012 when he played 22 games for an average of 98.32, so I don't see his club winning / losing more games this year.

how does the rest of the season look for mcveigh in regard to ground size?

S S S S S M S L L S M M S B S S S S M S S L S

Interstate
Spotless
bye

 

[Rowsus]

Tom Langdon

Season - 22 games at 85.5 (2014 19 games at 71.0)
MCG - 14 games at 82.2 (MCG wins 8 at 87.6, MCG losses 6 at 75.0)
Etihad - 3 games at 91.3 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 3 at 91.3)
Away - 5 games at 91.0 (Away wins 2 at 85.0, Away 3 losses at 95.0)
Wins - 10 games at 87.1
Losses - 12 games at 84.1

Of note...
It's hard to draw patterns from only 2 seasons of playing. He probably performed too well in 2015, pushing his price up, and increasing the risk of taking him in 2016. Just to add to the he's too risky argument, and trying to find something in his stats, his best scoring area is losses on Small grounds. It's clutching at straws, when dealing with small sample sizes, but here is a break up of Langdons career:

Losses on Small grounds: 8 games at 98.5
Wins on Small grounds: 2 games at 72.0
Losses on Med/Lge grounds: 13 games at 64.1
Wins on Med/Lge grounds: 18 games at 81.3

Given Collingwood only play 5 games on Small grounds in 2016 (Rnds 1, 17, 18, 21, 22), that would seem to add to the risk, if you were thinking of starting with Langdon.

 

[Rowsus]

Mitch Robinson (FTB)

Season - 21 games at 92.6 (2014 12 games at 83.1)
Home - 10 games at 98.7 (Home wins 3 at 132.3, Home losses 7 at 84.3)
Away - 11 games at 87.1 (Away wins 1 at 89.0, Away losses 10 at 86.9)
Wins - 4 games at 121.5
Losses - 17 games at 85.8

Of note...
Robinson is coming into his 8th season, coming off a career high in SC, and has 121 games under his belt. The fact that that career high is below Keeper level should be ringing alarm bells for all of us. You might hope the absence of Redden is a good sign for Robinson, but his numbers don't agree with that. Here is the break ups with key players missing/not missing:
No Rockliff: 7 games @ 83.4
No Redden: 5 games @ 83.4
No Beams: 6 games @ 123.8
When all 3 played: 6 games @ 83.3
When 2 of the 3 played: 12 games @ 95.5
When 1 of the 3 played: 3 games @ 99.7
It doesn't look too promising, unless/until Beams gets injured again. The other thing that worries me is, that in his entire career, he has only been more expensive than he is now in 4 Rounds, and that was Rnds 20 - 23 last season!
The risk looks too big, even though he is becoming a tackling machine. (He was 6th in total and average tackles for 2015)

 

[Rowsus]

Matt Suckling

Season - 21 games at 73.4 (2014 21 games at 77.0)
MCG - 8 games at 65.8 (MCG wins 6 at 67.5, MCG losses 2 at 60.5)
Etihad - 4 games at 76.5 (Etihad wins 3 at 80.7, Etihad losses 1 at 64.0)
Aurora - 4 games at 77.8 (Aurora wins 4 at 77.8, Aurora 0 losses at 0.0)
Interstate - 5 games at 79.8 (Interstate wins 3 at 80.0, Interstate losses 2 at 79.5)
Wins - 16 games at 74.9
Losses - 5 games at 68.8

Of note...
Suckling has changed Clubs, so the numbers above are largely academic.
As most of you know, Luke Beveridge was an assistant coach at Hawthorn before joining the Western Bulldogs. What a few of you won't know is, he was the Defence Coach for 2012, 2013 & 2014. Suckling missed the 2013 season, and played Half-Back and Wing in 2012 and 2014. For those considering him, it must give them some confidence that not only has the Coach obviously targetted him, but he was Sucklings "Line" coach as well. He obvious has plans for him, and he isn't just there to pad out the numbers. The question becomes, can Suckling become something at the Western Bulldogs, that he wasn't at Hawthorn? ie a good enough player to be SC relevant. The history of SC is littered with players that swapped Clubs, and immediately piqued the interest of a lot of Coaches, only for that player to continue on the mediocre road he was already on. Yes, there have been players that "changed" upon swapping Clubs, but I think you will find 2 things if you research it more deeply:
1) There is really not many that managed to "improve".
2) Those that did manage to improve were mostly younger players, with less than 100 games under their belt.
I really don't think Suckling was fully denied opportunities at Hawthorn, I think it was more when the opportunities arose, he wasn't able to fully grasp them, and make that role his own.
Given he has shown he can score at 90 (2011) I am pretty confident he can outscore his price at his new Club. I don't think he can outstrip his 90 by too much, if at all, and given he is priced at 73, he needs to be at least a low 90's player to be considered a good pick, it's all just too risky for mine.

 

[Rowsus]

Jack Gunston

Season - 22 games at 96.6 (2014 20 games at 90.4)
MCG - 9 games at 95.3 (MCG wins 6 at 96.2, MCG losses 3 at 93.7)
Etihad - 4 games at 122.5 (Etihad wins 3 at 128.7, Etihad losses 1 at 104.0)
Aurora - 4 games at 105.8 (Aurora wins 4 at 105.8, Aurora 0 losses at 0.0)
Interstate - 5 games at 70.8 (Interstate wins 3 at 55.7, Interstate losses 2 at 93.5)
Wins - 16 games at 97.1
Losses - 6 games at 95.3

Of note...
Gunston has a 22 and a 39 in his scores, but they don't represent any discount. His Rnd 12 22 had 88% TOG, and his Rnd 19 39 had 92% TOG. We just can't simply assume there won't be something similar in 2016. Especially when there was two of them! Interestingly, they were both in Interstate games (Adelaide and WC, Haw won both games). In 2014 Gunston had 5 pretty bad scores, and 2 of those were Interstate as well. Rnd 8 41 against Sydney at ANZ (84% TOG), and Rnd 21 51 against Freo at Domain (90% TOG). Obviously he has the scoring capacity to negate these poor scores, otherwise he wouldn't have averaged close to 97 in 2015. The games at Aurora don't Count as Interstate games for Hawthorn, so when do they play Interstate in 2016?
Rnd 6 - GWS at Spotless
Rnd 10 - Brisbane at Gabba
Rnd 16 - Port at AO
Rnd 17 - Sydney at SCG
Rnd 22 - WC at Domain
To me they are mostly late enough, that I wouldn't let it stop you picking him, if you like him.
Gunston scores better in big wins, averaging close to 110 in the 11 games where Hawthorn won by 50 points or more. Keep in mind, 11 games, that's half the season. Outside of those 11 games, we have the two shockers, and his other 9 games ranged from 86 to 108, for an average of 95.6. That's pretty consistent, even with the two dud scores to overcome!
He's priced to his maximum, but he's effectively coming into his 6th season, and he's only just crossed the 100 game barrier. There is potentially more to be squeezed from this lemon. It wouldn't surprise me, if he stays fit, that he scores +/-5/game of his 2015 effort, which means there is little downside in him. I would be surprised if he suddenly fell much below 90 though.

 

[Rowsus]

NO MORE PLAYER REQUESTS​

Thanks to those that have been following this thread. I hope some of you find it a useful research tool in the lead up to Round 1. After 140+ analyses I have hit the wall, and want to move on. I've enjoyed it mostly, and learnt a few things about players to include/exclude from my team.

There is an index on page 1, at posts #2, 3 & 4 to help you find any player you are looking for.

Please feel free to discuss anything you want about the players here, and even ask questions, but please, no more player requests.

Cheers
Rowsus

 

[yakka]

Your a bloody ripper mate.

 

[PC]

Above and beyond Rowsus, appreciate all the hard work!

 

[Mudflap]

Great work on this Rowsus. It has been (and will be) a valuable tool to use.

Will the "Ask Rowsus" thread be fired up again this season?

 

[Rowsus]

Great work on this Rowsus. It has been (and will be) a valuable tool to use.

Will the "Ask Rowsus" thread be fired up again this season?

Probably re-open it early next week.

 

[I am Cursed :(]

I have a question. If you had to pick one lock or breakout contender on every line based on this analysis, who would they be?

 

[Tamuhawk]

Thank you very much Rowsus for the Jack Gunston analysis. It gives me confidence in picking up Gunston despite his 2 shockers. His consistency in those other 9 games is very acceptable to me that's he's worth a pick up.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Probably re-open it early next week.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire

 

[jaca]

Thanks Rowsus!

 

[BigRuss]

Thanks for your work in this thread Rowsus, find myself checking it regularly as I refine my team, much appreciated mate.

 

[Junior Wölf]

Thanks again Rowsus. In terms of Robinson's table, Redden has moved clubs. So there is a possibility that he could take that spot but there is also Tom Bell coming in.