Opinion Rowsus Tables And Analysis Of 2015 Season

[Rowsus]

Elliot Yeo (FTB)

Season - 21 games at 82.1 (2014 13 games at 65.5)
Home - 11 games at 81.6 (Home wins 9 at 89.2, Home losses 1 at 47.5)
Away - 10 games at 82.7 (Away wins 6 at 93.0, Away 4 losses at 67.3)
Wins - 15 games at 90.7
Losses - 6 games at 60.7

Of note...
On one hand, Yeo looks primed to make some sort of break out in 2016. Scores of 146, 129, 119, 118 and 111 show that he's capable of going big for a Def. Combine that with being forced into a SC unfriendly role in some games, due to early season injuries to Key Defs, and he looks served up to us on a platter. On the other hand, I'm not totally sold. First, he is a FTB that scored close enough to 50% higher in wins than losses, and WC have a hard early draw. Second, he had 9 scores below 70 in 2015, and not all of them can be put down to having fill in as a KPP Def. He's exciting to watch, when he's going well, but can disappear pretty quickly too. Some have compared Yeo in some ways to a young Fyfe, but once again, I'm not convinced. I can't see Fyfe scoring so many sub 70's and even sub 50's, even in those roles! I'm just not convinced he has learnt enough to overcome his downhill skier tendencies in 2016. His price means his risk is low, but any Def you start over $400k needs to be considered a fixture in your team, and I'm just not convinced he will score well enough in that tough early draw to reach the 95 we'd want from him for the season.

Hi Rowsus - I thought I would see whether you had a view on something.

Yeo appears to be a FTB using his 2015 stats, but based on the info in the discussion at the below link, it now appears to me that that's because the Eagles lost quite a few games when he was required to play back (which is bad for his SC scoring), and almost always won when he played mid (which is good for his SC):

http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2784-Defender-Discussions/page7

If we treat rounds 5-16 as the games Yeo played mid, and otherwise he played as def:

- WC won 10 and lost one when he played as a mid, and
- Went 6.5-4.5 when he played as a def.

It seems logical that most of the losses would have occurred when they were undermanned due to def injuries, which is also when Yeo would be required to play back.

Essentially this means that the sample size of losses when he played mid is very small. In his one loss as a mid, he scored 86. As a def, he looks to have averaged 72 in wins and 51 in losses, although presumably those picking him are expecting he will largely play mid - even his wins as a def didn't throw up great SC scores!

In 2014, if you take out his two low TOG games, I think he played in 4 wins at 75 SC, and 7 losses at 73 SC. I'm not sure he should be treated as a FTB on this basis, or that we should avoid him based on the Eagles' early draw? It looks to me like the attractiveness of his SC scores is driven more by role than by whether the Eagles are winning or not. What do you think?

On the flip side, I read your analysis of Redden with great interest. I assume that if your rationale is correct (and it made a lot of sense to me), the Eagles plan to play Redden as a first choice mid (?). I also note Nathan's comments at the Def thread link above about Yeo providing height to the Eagles midfield - and as it turns out, the two of them are both 190cm.

Do you think Redden presents a major risk to Yeo's mid time?

Here are the posts from the Def thread linked above.

Does anyone know which rounds Yeo played back last year? I'm trying to figure out his average when not playing back.

I think LITS mentioned in another thread that he was needed in defence for the last six rounds, but I gather there were matches earlier in the year as well.

I think the best thing to would also look at matches McGovern missed as he would have almost definitely had to play back on those occasions. In his player review on the eagles site it says he wasn't thrown into the midfield until round 5.

Gov misses rounds 7, 17, 18, 20, 21. He was also subbed in a few games as well.
Yeo's scores in these rounds = 146 (mid) 92, 76, 62, 45
Yeo's scores rounds 1-4 = 67, 57, 41, 85

Doing an average from rounds 5-16 including round 7 where he obviously played mid/fwd I came up with 101.4.

Let me answer the last question first. Yes, I believe Redden when he is fit will attend more stoppages/centre bounces than Yeo. He managed over 5 clearances/game when 3rd in line behind Beams and Rockliff. If we take Crackle's summation as being correct as to Yeo's Midfield games, he averaged 3, when probably 3rd in line behind Priddis and Shuey. Add in that Yeo's role can be more flexible than Redden's, and I would be quite surprised, if he is fit, that Redden doesn't cost Yeo a big chunk of his Midtime.
As to Crackle's assertion as to when Yeo was playing Def, which he was general and not specific, I don't share his opinion (and I'm not being critical of Crackle). I watched probably 15 WC games in 2015, and couldn't say a lot them had him playing exclusively Def after Rnd 3. I'd love some heat maps, but I am stuck with reading between the lines on stats. Here is a few examples of what I'm talking about.
Crackle had Yeo playing Def in Rnds: 1, 2, 3, 4, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23.
Rnd 4 Yeo kicked 1 Goal 2 Behinds, recorded no rebound 50's, had 5 Inside 50's and 5 Clearances. I call that a Mid game, not a Def game.
Rnd 17 - No rebound 50's, 5 inside 50's, 3 Clearances. Defs as a rule don't record too many clearances, as the Mids get back to stoppages in their Def zone.
Rnd 23 - Kicked 1 Goal, 1 Behind, no rebound 50's, 4 inside 50's.
Rnd's 18, 19 & 20 he recorded more Inside 50's than rebound 50's.
I think he spent more Midfield time or Wing time than those keen on him care to acknowledge. He certainly did play some Def roles in some games, but I can't attribute all his lower scores down to those roles.

Thanks Rowsus, that's interesting. The lack of access to heat maps, and subjectivity around how to categorise roles even with that type of info, probably makes analysis of someone like Yeo in 2015 a lot trickier. I had previously attempted my own crude split, based on number of inside 50s, and come up with an average of, from memory, 93 when Yeo was getting more of those. I was trying to be a bit more definitive in the query that Crackle helped with, but perhaps it is just the nature of the beast! NakinakiFC recently added an interesting set of comments from Eade regarding KK in the Def thread (link below). Eade said that he played KK on the wing early in the year and that that hurt his performance. I figured I should check a site like aflplayerratings.com.au to check the timing of these moves (so I could see what KK scored when playing down back), but there was no mention of him playing wing at all! No mention of it, despite the coach himself saying that KK played wing early

http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2784-Defender-Discussions/page11

Bearing that issue in mind, I've tried to split out Yeo's scoring across his mid and def games, and wins and losses based on your comments above. This time I treated the def games as 1-3, 21 and 22. Your explanations on 4, 17 and 23 make sense, and in 18-20 the uncertainty is perhaps higher, but more I50s than R50s does make it hard to see how he could have been playing pure back. That gives Yeo the following splits:

Def wins: 2 games @ 51 SC (total 102 points)
Def losses: 3 @ 49.33 (148)

Mid wins: 13 @ 96.85 (1259)
Mid losses: 2 @ 70 (140)
Mid draw: 1 @ 76 (76)

Total def: 5 @ 50 (250)
Total mid: 16 @ 92.19 (1475)

Total wins: 15 @ 90.73 (1361)
Total losses: 5 @ 57.6 (288)
Total draw: 1 @ 76 (76)

After my previous discussion with Crackle, I had pegged Yeo for an average of around 93 this year, assuming that he played predominantly mid. Based on the above, that now looks too generous - it's important that he plays mid if he is to score well, but that may not be sufficient to generate keeper scores anyway ... and there's no guarantee he gets all that extra mid time.

He only averaged 92 when playing mid, and any time at all down back would obviously drag his average down (def average of 50). You might expect some natural improvement from him, given his age/number of games played, but his TOG is already in the low to mid 80s (even in his mid games) so there's probably not a lot of upside from that element of natural progression.

A 93 average might be a challenging ask if he doesn't get an SC friendly mid role for almost the whole year. The addition of Redden also looks like making that less likely, as you say - especially if Redden has been hand-picked to fill a role they need filled I'd be surprised if Yeo did worse than last year, but if he can't push up near 93 or above, even at his price, he's probably not worth taking. I will keep an eye on him, but there might be better options elsewhere. Thanks again Row.

Nice work, Darkie. That is certainly more in line with how I saw Yeo's season, after looking more closely at it when I made his table. I would have probably still started him in 2016, if it wasn't for the addition of Redden. I can see Yeo improving to be a low 90's player in 2016, but I would want a bit more than that, especially given how popular I think he'll be. If a popular player is going to give a border-line return, I prefer to look elsewhere.

 

[Rowsus]

Josh J Kennedy (FTB)

Season - 22 games at 92.0 (2014 20 games at 79.2)
Home - 12 games at 101.7 (Home wins 10 at 107.4, Home losses 2 at 73.0)
Away - 10 games at 80.3 (Away wins 6 at 89.5, Away 4 losses at 66.5)
Wins - 16 games at 100.7
Losses - 6 games at 68.7

Of note...
Yet another WC FTB! He scored at a rate 46% higher in wins, than losses. I will concede, that is not totally uncommon for KPP Fwds. His break up of scoring looks like this:
Draws and losses: 6 games at 68.7
Wins from 1 pt to 60 pts: 11 games at 90.9
Wins 61 pts and higher: 5 games at 122.2
Maybe if you like him, and his price has dropped enough, he might be a good upgrade target in Rnd 8.
WC' s draw goes:
Rnd 8 - St Kilda at Domain
Rnd 9 - Port Adelaide at AO
Rnd 10 - Gold Coast at Domain
Rnd 11 - Bulldogs at Etihad
Rnd 12 - Adelaide at Domain
Rnd 13 - Brisbane at Gabba
Rnd 14 - Bye
Rnd 15 - Essendon at Domain
Rnd 16 - Kangaroos at Domain
Rnd 17 - Carlton at MCG
Rnd 18 - Melbourne at Domain
He has 4 easy home games, and 2 easy away games in that 10 game run, and could put up some large scores, like he did last season: 178 against Carlton, 150 against Bulldogs, 148 against Geelong and 137 against North (PF). It should also be noted, that his top 5 scores were at Domain last season!

 

[Rowsus]

Andrew Gaff

Season - 22 games at 103.8 (2014 22 games at 87.9)
Home - 12 games at 105.4 (Home wins 10 at 107.4, Home losses 2 at 95.5)
Away - 10 games at 101.8 (Away wins 6 at 102.3, Away 4 losses at 101.0)
Wins - 16 games at 105.5
Losses - 6 games at 99.2

Of note...
Took a step up in 2015, which many coaches have been anticipating since his 2nd season of 90/game in 2012. So the question becomes, now he has made a progression, can he keep it going, and possibly reach 110 in 2016? The biggest hurdle to Gaff achieving any step up, is his TOG%. He went around at 91% in in 2015, and most Mids have around 80-85% TOG. Most Mids that you are looking to/hoping for a breakout season, the first thing you check is their TOG%, and hope it is in the mid 70's. The easiest thing to increase is a lowish TOG%, especially with interchange allowances being lowered. Gaff was 87% in 2014, and that is still considered high for a Mid. If he is to break out in 2016, he probably needs to do it with a drop in his TOG%, and that's tough. He does have areas he can improve though! He only averaged: 16.4 Kicks, 0.5 Goals, 2.4 Tackles, 2.6 Clearances, 7.1 Contested possessions (CP rate of 24.8%). They are all numbers he could easily improve, but it's just that little bit harder to do, with that expected drop in TOG%. His scores aren't affected too much by playing in winning or losing teams, which is promising.

 

[Rowsus]

Jeremy McGovern

Season - 17 games at 79.6 (2014 13 games at 82.5)
Home - 8 games at 78.4 (Home wins 6 at 75.3, Home losses 2 at 87.5)
Away - 9 games at 80.7 (Away wins 6 at 72.7, Away 3 losses at 96.7)
Wins - 12 games at 74.0
Losses - 5 games at 93.0

Of note...
SC aside, given he was a second year player, trying to fill spots of injured, more experienced players, and carrying injuries himself, it was a remarkable season! But we are here for SC, so in the end, he gave us pretty much what you expected from a 2nd year player. The key to his scoring, is his marking. He's a very good reader of the ball in flight, and as such, he positions himself well in marking contests. He averaged 94 to Round 9, and at that stage he was averaging 7.5 marks/game, 1.9 of those marks contested. Those contested intercept marks can be SC gold! (Rance, TMac anyone!) He only scored 3 100's for the season. Rnd 1 - 145, Rnds 3 & 8 100 even. You probably would have liked to have seen more, but he was probably one the biggest victims, of WC's circumstances. From Rnds 10 to 23 he only played 9 games, and averaged 66.7 SC, 4.1 marks, 1.2 Contested marks. Remember, he was a 2nd year player, playing a role he probably wasn't ready for, so the drop off shouldn't have been totally unexpected, especially as he carried niggles and problems himself.
The question becomes, what can we expect in 2016? If he is fit, and moving well, he is probably the main beneficiary of players returning from injury (and not Yeo, as many think. IMO.) If he can play the third tall in Defence, and get to back his judgement, his intercept marking could be invaluable. Throw in the odd foray up forward, for a goal or two, and he could easily score at Def Keeper level. He's definitely one to keep an eye on in the NAB, to see what role he plays.

 

[Rowsus]

Jack Redden

Season - 17 games at 95.5 (2014 14 games at 103.1)
Gabba - 9 games at 100.2 (Home wins 2 at 106.0, Home losses 7 at 98.6)
Away - 8 games at 90.1 (Away wins 1 at 101.0, Away 7 losses at 88.6)
Wins - 3 games at 104.3
Losses - 14 games at 93.6

Of note...
As Redden has changed Clubs, the above figures hold little more than interest value.
The question is, what role will he play at the Eagles in 2016?

I assume you've all seen "Moneyball" with Brad Pitt, where Jonah Hill plays Peter Brand, a statistics and numbers man.

Here is how I see it playing out in my mind.
Scene: West Coast HQ, Adam Simpsons office. Date: October 2015.
Present: Adam Simpson, Dean Cox, Brady Rawlings...... and a little fat dishevelled guy (Peter Brand) in the corner, struggling with many files, that have papers spilling out of them.

AS: (smiles as he looks back and forth between Cox and Rawlings) Ok Guys, we made the GF, and to be fair, if you told me we would be playing in the big one 6 months ago, I would have laughed at you! (Cox gives a little giggle, and shoots a "yeah, me too" look at Rawlings. The smile slips away from Simpsons face) But we did make it, and we got pantsed!!! (Simpson scowls, and leans towards Cox) I don't think that's funny, Dean!!!
DC: (looks contrite, and sits up a bit straighter) Sorry, Simmo (winces to himself)
AS: We can't out Hawthorn Hawthorn, so what do we do? What do we do differently to what we did this season?
BR: Who's the little fat dude?
PB: (looks a bit hurt, opens his mouth to reply, but just looks at Simpson, and says nothing)
AS: I'm getting to him..... and he's not fat......... he's........ fluffy!
PB: (smiles to himself. The Coach is on MY side!)
AS: Deano, you're the Ruck Coach, what's going on? Why aren't we getting more forward entries? Why aren't we getting more first use of the pill?
DC: (looks a little scared, glances at Rawlings, then looks at Simpson) F-f-fair crack, Simmo. My boy Nick is killing them. Outside of that mountainous freak over at Freo, no other team averaged more Hitouts per game than our boys. Not even North...... and they've got that goody two shoes apple polisher Goldstein! (Rawlings has a little smile to himself, as he thinks "Coxy is copping it!")
PB: That's true...... (he goes to continue, but Simpson's look tells him to wait)
AS: Ok, Nick's leaping over tall buildings in a single bound....... He's winning more taps than pretty much everybody...... What's going wrong?! (Simpson stops, and looks squarely at Rawlings)
BR: W-w-well, we were 3rd for clearances this season... (he allows himself a little smile, as he glances around the room. He starts to get a bit cocky, and leans back) We managed 998 clearances in 2015. Hell, the only teams that beat us in clearances were Hawthorn and Fremantle, and they only just beat us! Freo only got 9 more than us, and Hawthorn was just over 50 in front of us! (He smiles, and thinks to himself "I showed them!")
PB: Well...... that's true....
BR: (smiling big now) See?! (he nods towards Brand while looking for approval from Simpson)
PB: But Mr Rawlings.....
BR: Call me Brady, son.
PB: But Brady, it depends on how you want to look at it! (Rawlings looks worried) Yes, we were 3rd for the number of clearances in 2015, (Rawlings smiles again) but we were 6th for number of clearances per game. (Rawlings looks worried and confused) If you look at Clearances as a by-product of Hitouts, we were actually 17th...... 2nd last!
(Rawlings is half out of his chair now, and looking like someone just accused him of stealing wallets in the locker room!)
BR: 2nd last!!!!........ Geez son, what kind of cock-eyed glasses are you using to look at this! 2nd last!!! Son, we have Matt Priddis! Matt Priddis for criminy's sake. One of the top clearance players in the League!
PB: (glances at Simpson. Simpson motions him forward) You see, you have to look at Hitouts like opportunities, and Clearances like an opportunity that has been acted on.
(Rawlings and Cox look at each other, then look from Simpson to Brand, and back to Simpson)
AS: Tell them about the apples, Pete. I'm sure they will get it then!
(Brand moves to the desk, and drops all the files clumsily. A couple fall on the floor, and papers spill everywhere. Somehow, he has managed to hang onto the 4 sheets he needed, and he passes one to each of the others in the room. It looks like this: )

PB: Think of the Ruckmen like apple farmers, and the players around them like applepickers. The Ruckmen try to pluck the apple....... that'd be a Hitout ...... (He looks around the room to see if they are following him) . He tries to place the apple in a spot, where his own applepickers can grab it for him. Sometimes he doesn't place it so well, and the other farmer's applepickers swoop on it, and steal it. Now, some of these applepickers are pretty smart, and they know the other farmer will pluck more apples than their own farmer! So instead of watching their own farmer for apples, they start to watch the other farmer, because they think they can steal more apples from the other farmer, than their own farmer can give them. (He stops and looks around the room. Cox and Rawlings are still and silent. Simpson nods for Brand to continue). Now, everybody knows this is happening, but most farmers' bosses...... th-that'd be you Mr Simpson, and the other Coaches...... they don't mind you see. They think "well, they're stealing some of our apples, we're stealing some of their apples, as long as we get more apples than them, I'm happy"
BR: Hey! We ended up with the 3rd most apples last season!....... Now I'd say that was pretty good!
PB: Well........ I can see why you think that looks good, but look at your paper. (Brand motions to the paper, and the other 3 look down). Now, we can see that Nick and his helper are plucking the 2nd most number of apples each day. They are averaging 51.8 apples a day....... which is great! The only problem is, between the apples our applepickers are picking up from Nick, and the apples they are stealing from the other farmers, they are only bringing home 39.9 apples each day.
BR: That's still the 6th most apples of any farm. (Rawlings isn't sure whether to look happy or worried)
Br: Yes, that sounds good, but it isn't. You see, when we look at the number of apples Nick and his helper are putting down to the applepickers, and compare that to the number of apples they are picking up from our farmer, and the other farmer, they are only picking up 77.1% of the apples that are on offer from our own farmer! Look at the Gold Coast numbers. Their farmers only plucked 779 apples last season, but their applepickers brought home 853 apples!!! That's 109% of what their farmer provided for them!
AS: So what do we do? I mean, we recruit and train more applepickers every season. (Simpson smiles as he says) Applepickers don't just grow on trees, you know!
PB: That's good, a-a-and that's important. But it can take 4 or 5 years to train a good applepicker. And the problem is (He looks over at Rawlings) our applepickers are....... too....... nice!
BR (Cox stifles a guffaw, looking at Rawlings, but then looks at Simpson and is quiet again) Too nice! *** son! How many apples did you bring home this year? And I'm not talking about the McDonald's hot apple pies either! Lord knows you might have been a League leader if we counted those!
DC: I stuck 4 of those in my mouth at one time to win a bet a few years back. Then Benny Cousins dropped his pants and duck-waddled around the McDonald's. Damn apples and sauce came shooting out my nose! I was coughing and spluttering, and could hardly get my breath! (They all just look at Cox with blank faces. Cox realises, you might have had to have been there for it to be funny, but continues anyway) . Stupid Cousins..... he wasn't even in on the bet....... god knows why he did that!
PB: (looks slightly wounded, but continues) Our applepickers are not only not bringing home enough apples, they aren't doing the other things the good farm's applepickers are doing. They're not tackling enough, not getting enough contested possessions, bottom line, they're just not hard enough. You can't make someone hard overnight, and it is very difficult to train them to be hard. So my idea is, we recruit a hard applepicker.
AS: And who would that be, Peter? Do you have someone in mind?
BR: He probably thinks we should sell the farm, and chase Dangerfield!
PB: (looking at Simpson) Yes, I have someone in mind (now looking at Rawlings) and no, we don't have to sell the farm to get him! When you want to recruit a certain type of player, in this case an applepicker, you look to the team with the best applepicking result. Chances are they have some depth in that area, and you might be able to pick up their third or fourth string applepicker, for what turns out to be a bargain price.
AS: So...... Who had the best applepicking result last season? Hawthorn? Sydney? I can't see either of them letting a Shiels or a Parker go, and I don't think they'd want to leave their winning teams anyway!
PB: No, it was Brisbane.
AS, DC, BR: (in unison) BRISBANE!!!
PB: Yes, Brisbane. Look at your sheets again. They averaged 45 clearances per game, which was 3 higher than the next best, Fremantle. Now, obviously we can't get a Rockliff for a smallish outlay, and Beams just went there, but I think we can get their next best applepicker. (Brand opens a file, and pulls out 4 more sheets, and hands them around) Here, I've made a table showing their applepickers, and our applepickers, and I've only included the applepickers that averaged bringing home more than 3 apples each day.

PB: As you can see, we only had 2 Non-Ruck applepickers make the over 3 apples list, and Brisbane had 5! I believe we can get their 3rd man, Redden, for our first draft pick....... number 17........ It will save us years trying to make or train one. He has a better Kick to Handball than Beams and Rockliff, and over 40% of his possessions are contested. ...... He's winning his own ball. Now here's a little aside, not many people know about. You can see how hard he works around the ground! Only 21% of his possessions come from applepicking. That means he is working to get the ball away from "the farm" as well. Priddis and Shuey get 26% of their possessions at the farm, and Dean, your boy Nick is getting 34% of his possessions down on "the farm". He needs to do more. Look at Martin, he brings home more apples than Nick, but only gets 22% of his possessions at "the farm". We need more from him, when he's not plucking apples!

So to my mind, WC wanted to take more/better advantage of their good Hitout count, but most of their Mids were outside runners, and they needed some inside help. I believe they traded really well to suit their needs. At 25, Redden has enough years in him to fill a role, until they can teach/find a couple more to takeover. Pick 17 probably wouldn't have got them the clearance player they needed now, not from a rookie anyway.
I think he will attend a lot of stoppages, and sort of becomes what Scooter was, but I'm talking about the 2012/13 Scooter, that WC need, and not the 2014/15 injury depleted Scooter. I also think that will be about his mark in 2016. Scooter averaged 104 in 2012/13, and I think that is about what Redden will give us in 2016.
I don't think it is coincidence, that the teams at the top of the Clearance table above, have what appear to be the weakest Rucks. In fact, it makes perfect sense.


..... guess who is bored, and has too much time on his hands!

Every time I watch jack redden now I'll think of apples and Jonah Hill... fantastic analysis Rowsus!

Re the apple plucking analogy Rowsus - if you had a choice (and forgive me for the crude descriptions) of a weak ruck group with a strong midfield group OR a strong ruck group with a weak midfield group, which would you favour in (i) an afl team; and (ii) a SC team?

I am pretty sure it would be the weak ruck group but would like conformation.

The analysis of Redden made me think of Callum Sinclair. He is moving to what I perceive, and I think your analysis supports, to a team with a (slightly?) stronger midfield. His time in the ruck may or may not increase but presumably the quality of outcomes from his ruck work should improve. It seems somehow rucks earn more points from what happens after they tap the ball than from actually tapping it.

In a second order thought maybe as you have already observed more ruck ball will be beneficial to some of the Swans' mids - especially Kennedy.

Absolutely no doubt. Give me a strong Midfield, over a strong Ruck, every single time, in both cases.

interesting question - judging by Bulldogs vs WCE, you can get the same result in clearances despite each strength being the others weakness.

re Sinclair - just note he is not a strong ruckman and Sydney on those stats dont look to be strong on inside midfielders. You are right that if Sydney was stronger on inside mids than WCE, then the more H2A they help cause, it would benefit the ruckman.

Rowsus - you have written some great pieces and maybe I am blinded by my WCE bias, however, that is the most entertaining yet insightful pieces I have read and the fact it is positive for the Eagles is just a bonus!

It also shows why WCE let Sinclair go and not Lycett, as it doesnt have the inside mids to be able to sustain a lower quality ruckman (assuming Lycett is better than Sinclair as a ruck, which I think is the consensus view).

Thanks for the kind Words, GFB.

We have some brilliant nicknames for some AFL players.
One of my favourites being Mitch Robinson - The Banjo Player, given to us by JR on his podcast. (Deliverance)
I remember years ago Rex Hunt used to call David Sierakowski - SOSAV. David's old man was once bitten by a shark. SOSAV stood for Son Of a Shark Attack Victim.
Rowsus has now given us another ripper. To me Jack Redden will be now always known as The Applepicker.

Yet another brilliant write up mate.

Thanks, Creeker. I might have started something!

Cripps: Corn Boy

Haha the Banjo Player, Gets a giggle out of me every time.

http://youtu.be/9iUbEIbcuE4

Awesome apple story Rowsus!!! I reckon they recruited to their needs very well.

Only Priddis is a pure clearence player. Even Shuey is important with his run on the outside, and Yeo is best as a Mr. Fix it.

If West Coast modify their game style (Every opposition coach will be working out how to counter the Weagles Web over the pre season, and they have to change it or they'll do a Port), they have the squad to trump Hawthorn.

 

[Rowsus]

Marcus Bontempelli

Season - 20 games at 103.2 (2014 16 games at 78.6)
MCG - 2 games at 92.0 (MCG wins 1 at 142.0, MCG losses 1 at 42.0)
Etihad - 13 games at 100.5 (Etihad wins 11 at 100.9, Etihad losses 2 at 98.0)
Simonds - 1 games at 94.0 (Simonds wins at 0.0, Simonds 1 losses at 94.0)
Interstate - 4 games at 120.3 (Interstate wins 2 at 121.0, Interstate losses 2 at 119.5)
Wins - 14 games at 106.7
Losses - 6 games at 95.2

Of note...
Looking at The Bonts stats, the first thing that struck me was, that they looked very similar to a 2nd year Nathan Fyfe's numbers. I couldn't help myself, and had to have a proper look/comparison.

Ok, now we have the numbers in front of us, he looks more like Fyfe-lite than full strength Fyfe. Fyfe-midstrength might be fairer. It's not enough to make you want to take him at his awkward price in 2016, but boy it points to a good future if he can keep it going! We will never know what indication Fyfe's 3rd season might have given us on The Bonts upcoming 3rd season, as it was in 2012 that Fyfe's shoulder started to pop out more than a henpecked husband nicking down the pub for a couple of sharp ones!.

 

[Rowsus]

Easton Wood

Season - 21 games at 86.1 (2014 18 games at 68.1)
MCG - 2 games at 107.5 (MCG wins 1 at 128.0, MCG losses 1 at 87.0)
Etihad - 13 games at 84.4 (Etihad wins 11 at 81.2, Etihad losses 2 at 102.0)
Simonds - 1 games at 58.0 (Simonds wins at 0.0, Simonds 1 losses at 58.0)
Interstate - 5 games at 87.8 (Interstate wins 2 at 98.0, Interstate losses 3 at 81.0)
Wins - 14 games at 86.9
Losses - 7 games at 84.6

Of note...
You have to worry about a 26yo that has only played 87 games in 7 seasons. Game counts of: 2, 9, 15, 14, 5, 18, 21 since he started just doesn't cut it. Here's the thing, he was either injured, and if he was injured that much, I don't want him, or he wasn't good enough to get a game in a weakish line up/team, and I still don't want him. Yes, he had a stellar 2015. AA honors, Club B&F, impeccable stuff, if you're a Bullies supporter. Irrelevant if you are a SC coach. Given he had only one season over 60 out of 6 seasons coming into 2015, you would have to say 2015 was his breakout/spike season, and either that's his level, or he drops back a little from here. You would think the odds were against him taking another step, at this stage of his career, given what he has achieved so far. He had never scored a 100+ score coming into 2015, and then he scored 7. It really sounds like a spike of sorts.

 

[Rowsus]

Luke Dahlhaus

Season - 22 games at 104.5 (2014 21 games at 91.7)
MCG - 2 games at 118.0 (MCG wins 1 at 112.0, MCG losses 1 at 124.0)
Etihad - 13 games at 104.3 (Etihad wins 11 at 106.5, Etihad losses 2 at 92.5)
Simonds - 1 games at 143.0 (Simonds wins at 0.0, Simonds 1 losses at 143.0)
Interstate - 6 games at 93.8 (Interstate wins 2 at 106.5, Interstate losses 4 at 87.5)
Wins - 14 games at 106.9
Losses - 8 games at 100.3

Of note...
Took a really good step in 2015, but unless something happens to the Bullies Mids, injury-wise, he is unlikely to take another step in 2016. There are 22 different stats recorded on the AFL Tables website, here are the ones Dahlhaus didn't record career bests in, in 2015: Marks (missed by 1 mark), Goals (but career best in accuracy), Clangers, Frees For & Against, Contested Marks, Marks Inside 50 (missed by 1), Bounce, 1%'s and Goal Assists. That leaves 12 that were career highs, and two that were just one Mark off a career high. He's a good chance to be a top 8 or 10 Fwd for 2016, but without at least some sort of confidence he can go close to last years numbers, it makes it fairly hard to start with him. Good upgrade target if he goes through a dry spell at the right time.

 

[Rowsus]

Jackson Macrae

Season - 20 games at 99.9 (2014 21 games at 100.1)
MCG - 1 games at 86.0 (MCG wins 1 at 86.0, MCG losses 0 at 0.0)
Etihad - 12 games at 103.0 (Etihad wins 11 at 105.1, Etihad losses 1 at 80.0)
Simonds - 1 games at 95.0 (Simonds wins at 0.0, Simonds 1 losses at 95.0)
Interstate - 6 games at 96.8 (Interstate wins 2 at 107.0, Interstate losses 4 at 91.8)
Wins - 14 games at 104.0
Losses - 6 games at 90.3

Of note...
It's pretty much an accepted thing in SC, that there are "2nd year blues". My opinion is that is caused by people having too high of an expectation from 2nd year players, but that's another story. The players that don't experience 2nd year blues quite often experience what I call a 3rd year stall. They beat the 2nd year blues, and made good 2nd year Progress only to stagnate, or slip back a Little in their 3rd season. Something anyone keen on The Bont should be aware of! That leaves a question mark over where they go from there. Will they pick up the reigns again, and continue to improve? Or will they stagnate, and any improvement be minimal? There are so many things that are a factor in deciding that, it almost impossible to look at any group of stats as a pointer. The return of Liberatore will be interesting, as it must have some effect on Macrae. They are totally different styles of players, but the effect will still be there. It's tough comparing 2nd and 3rd year stats, as there will always be some sort of improvement, but it is hard to quantify how much is nature, and how much is circumstance. Macrae is pretty much recognised as being an outside Mid, but he did a job with Libba gone in 2015. There are stats that inside Mids generally have different to outside Mids: Clearances, Tackles, Contested Possessions and K:H ratios are usually fair indicators, as can be D/E%.

Macrae 2014:
Clearances 2.2, Tackles 4.1, Contested Possessions 7.9 (29.4%), K:H 53.7% Kicks, D/E 73.1%

Macrae 2015:
Clearances 4.5, Tackles 5.6, Contested Possessions 10.4 (39.4%), K:H 51.8% Kicks, D/E 69.9%

How much of that is natural improvement, and how much is down to circumstances, with no Libba in 2015 is anyones guess. But I would be willing to bet, assuming Libba is at least 85% back to his old self, there is a shift back towards the 2014 figures. That's not to say a drop in any of those figures prevents Macrae making a step in SC. On a pure points/Disposal basis, he has been running at around 3.8 the past 2 seasons, and depending on what he does, that, and his possession count both have the potential to improve. He's hard to have, given those with better histories priced just above him, but he's definitely one to watch for 2017.

 

[Rowsus]

Matthew Boyd

Season - 18 games at 103.9 (2014 19 games at 97.9)
MCG - 2 games at 121.0 (MCG wins 1 at 110.0, MCG losses 1 at 132.0)
Etihad - 12 games at 106.2 (Etihad wins 11 at 108.1, Etihad losses 1 at 85.0)
Simonds - 1 games at 66.0 (Simonds wins at 0.0, Simonds 1 losses at 66.0)
Interstate - 3 games at 96.3 (Interstate wins 2 at 100.5, Interstate losses 1 at 88.0)
Wins - 14 games at 107.1
Losses - 4 games at 92.8

Of note...
The first thing that strikes me about Boyd is the games he missed!
Rnd 3 - 70 point loss vs Hawthorn at Aurora (Large ground)
Rnd 6 - 7 point loss vs St kilda at Etihad (Small ground)
Rnd 21 - 77 point loss vs West Coast at Domain (Medium ground)
Rnd 23 - 8 point loss vs Brisbane at Gabba (Medium ground)
All 4 games Boyd missed resulted in losses, and the Bullies only lost 8 games in 2015. 3 of the 4 were Interstate, and the Bullies only had 6 games Interstate in 2015. 3 of the 4 were on Medium and Larger grounds, and the Bullies only had 6 games on Medium and Larger grounds in 2015. Interesting. Is this design or coincidence, or a little of both?
Fortunately, if you are keen on starting Boyd, the Bullies play their first 7 games at Etihaad!!!
If you do believe there is even some partial design to this, the games to be aware of in 2016 are:
Rnd 9 vs GWS at Spotless (Medium ground)
Rnd 12 vs Port at AO (Small ground)
Rnd 15 vs Syd at SCG (Small ground)
Rnd 17 vs GC at Cazaly's (Medium ground)
Rnd 23 vs Fre at Domain (Medium ground)
The other interesting thing in Boyd's stats since he had a role change in 2015, is his CP rate and D/E%. Both to be expected, but interesting none the less, especially as he has/had a reputation as someone who butchered the ball!
2014: 26.2 Disp/game, 11.3 CP's rate 43.1%, D/E 66.5%
2015: 27.2 Disp/game, 7.0 CP's rate 25.7&, D/E 79.1%
There might only be 3 Defs you'd back to average high 90's or better in 2016, and Boyd is one of them. The question becomes, how many games do you expect him to play/miss? Keeping in mind, if he was to average 100, every missed game would drop his PIT65 average by 1.6. If he averages 100, and misses 4 games again, he is only really worth 93.6 your team, assuming you have Rookie coverage when required. If you knew he'd miss 3 games or less, you'd probably lock him in......... but we just don't know, do we?

 

[Rowsus]

Robert Murphy

Season - 20 games at 91.8 (2014 22 games at 88.5)
MCG - 2 games at 98.5 (MCG wins 1 at 116.0, MCG losses 1 at 81.0)
Etihad - 12 games at 91.8 (Etihad wins 10 at 92.9, Etihad losses 2 at 86.5)
Simonds - 1 games at 73.0 (Simonds wins at 0.0, Simonds 1 losses at 73.0)
Interstate - 5 games at 93.0 (Interstate wins 2 at 102.5, Interstate losses 3 at 86.7)
Wins - 13 games at 96.2
Losses - 7 games at 83.9

Of note...
He has only played 22 games once since he did it in the very first SC season in 2005! He has averaged 21 games/season in the last 5 seasons though. He turns 34 mid-season in 2016, and only has 3 90+ seasons out of 11 SC seasons. With the likelihood of him being managed for age, and his general history being just short of what is required, I would think he is one to be passed by in 2016.

 

[Rowsus]

Andrew Walker

Season - 12 games at 67.2 (2014 14 games at 87.9)
MCG - 7 games at 58.1 (MCG wins 2 at 60.0, MCG losses 5 at 57.4)
Etihad - 1 games at 57.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 1 at 57.0)
Away - 4 games at 70.8 (Away wins 1 at 82.0, Away 3 losses at 67.0)
Wins - 3 games at 67.3
Losses - 9 games at 60.6

Of note...
The 2nd biggest concern for those tempted to use Walker as a Stepping Stone is, that he only had one of his 12 games in 2015 with less than 77% TOG. Round 12 he only played 14% TOG, and the average for his 12 games was 79%. That gives him a SC/100%TOG of 85! Given you want your Def Keepers to have a SC/100%TOG of around 110, at least, that's a big concern. The biggest concern is, how many games will he play? Yes, if you take him, you don't need him to play 20+ games, as you will look to trade him out. but you do need him to play 8 to 10 games to do the job for you, to add points AND dollars. Given his game counts looking backwards are: 12, 14, 21, 15, 22, 15, 5, 7, 19, 22, 18 (Ave 16 games), it's possible he will take 15 or 16 rounds to get the growth you need, and it's also possible he will score at a disappointing level, and never achieve the required growth. I wouldn't take him unless you thought you could get at least $100,000 profit out of him. To achieve that he needs to average low 90's, and nearly becomes a Keeper anyway. Keep in mind, in his whole SC history, he has had only one season over 88! (106 in 2013) A really high risk selection, and I wouldn't let his D/F DPP seduce you. It's hard to imagine you wouldn't be better off with a Rookie, and an upgrade elsewhere, with the loose change.

Thanks Rowsus, that's pretty clear cut! I was hopeful that there might be an angle on Walker as a value pick, but it seems there's not a lot to commend him. As the pre-season continues I'm looking to move to more solid picks, so he should be an easy one to move on from. Thanks again for your efforts here, this is a fantastic thread.

 

[Rowsus]

Travis Cloke

Season - 17 games at 69.3 (2014 20 games at 72.6)
MCG - 10 games at 80.1 (MCG wins 6 at 87.5, MCG losses 4 at 69.0)
Etihad - 2 games at 28.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 2 at 28.0)
Away - 5 games at 64.2 (Away wins 2 at 78.0, Away 3 losses at 55.0)
Wins - 8 games at 85.1
Losses - 9 games at 55.2

Of note...
Rather than try and draw some positives from Cloke's mediocre season or two, let's analyse his last 3 seasons against the teams Collingwood play up to Round 16 in 2016. Let's see if we can find any leads that suggest he might be a good Stepping Stone.

As we can see, he has some big scores in there, especially against his Round 2 and Round 3 opponents, Richmond and St Kilda. The problem is, there isn't enough high scores in there. Assuming he doesn't repeat those 2 monsters, he nearly has to repeat his highest scores in the last 3 seasons against each opponent, to be of any use to us. I'm not saying he can't do it, and he is a streak player, that will string 4 or 5 hot scores together, but the risk looks too high. There just doesn't seem to be enough positive indicators there, to be taking that risk.

 

[Rowsus]

Tom Hawkins

Season - 19 games at 79.7 (2014 22 games at 87.1)
Home - 7 games at 75.7 (Home wins 4 at 86.5, Home losses 3 at 61.3)
MCG - 5 games at 69.2 (MCG wins 2 at 88.5, MCG losses 3 at 56.3)
Etihad - 4 games at 82.0 (Etihad wins 2 at 86.0, Etihad losses 2 at 78.0)
Away - 3 games at 103.3 (Away wins 2 at 101.5, Away losses 1 at 107.0)
Wins - 10 games at 89.8
Losses - 9 games at 68.4

Of note...
He seems to have suffered from Geelong wanting to squeeze an extra tall or two into their Forward line the last couple of years. Even with Walker gone, they have Clark (only 8 games in 2015), Vardy, Kersten and Smith/Blicavs. I can't see Hawkins getting that one out tall spot you'd want to bring his average back into the 90's. He actually only managed 5 90+ scores in 2015! Add in the 5 scores below 60, and it's a tough ask. In 2014 he had 10 90+ scores, with 6 sub 60's and 3 scores in the 60's. The risk is just too high.

 

[Rowsus]

Mitchell Duncan

Season - 11 games at 91.4 (2014 22 games at 100.0)
Home - 6 games at 84.0 (Home wins 4 at 94.8, Home losses 2 at 62.5)
MCG - 3 games at 118.7 (MCG wins 2 at 146.5, MCG losses 1 at 63.0)
Etihad - 0 games at 0.0 (Etihad wins 0 at 0.0, Etihad losses 0 at 0.0)
Away - 2 games at 72.5 (Away wins 1 at 61.0, Away losses 1 at 84.0)
Wins - 7 games at 104.7
Losses - 4 games at 68.0

Of note...
At first glance he looks an exciting prospect. 3 120+ scores in 11 matches, and excuses in a few of the poorer scored matches. While I am sure he will post some goodscores in 2016, we have nothing to compare what affect Dangerfield will have on his role. There would seem Little doubt that he becomes 3rd banana behind Selwood and Danger, and while there has been some rare cases where the 3rd banana has had a good SC season, it hasn't happened too often. The other worrying sign is, he failed to register a 90+ in a loss in 2015! I would counter that with in 2014, when Duncan averaged 100, he averaged 100 in both wins and losses. He would seem some sort of chance to outscore his price, but it would seem a big task to reach Keeper status, and at a price of just over 90, he needs to reach Keeper status to be considered a good pick.

 

[Rowsus]

Jarryd Roughead (FTB)

Season - 20 games at 96.4 (2014 20 games at 95.8)
MCG - 8 games at 105.4 (MCG wins 5 at 123.8, MCG losses 3 at 74.7)
Etihad - 4 games at 93.5 (Etihad wins 3 at 99.0, Etihad losses 1 at 77.0)
Aurora - 3 games at 107.7 (Aurora wins 3 at 107.7, Aurora 0 losses at 0.0)
Interstate - 5 games at 77.4 (Interstate wins 3 at 85.3, Interstate losses 2 at 65.5)
Wins - 14 games at 106.8
Losses - 6 games at 72.0

Of note...
Roughie is an interesting one. If we break his season down into 3 sections, there is a definite pattern.
Haw win by 60+ : 8 games at 115.5
Haw win by 30 to 59 : 4 games at 105.3
Haw lose, or win up to 29 : 8 games at 72.8
Even though there is a slight overlap/correlation, the ground size break up is interesting too.
Large ground wins: 8 at 117.8, Large ground losses: 3 at 74.7
Sm/Med ground wins: 6 at 92.2, Sm/Med ground losses: 3 at 69.3
If we break up Hawthorns draw (H & A only) over the past 3 seasons to ground sizes, and results it looks like this:
[table="width: 500"]
[tr]
[td]Ground size[/td]
[td]lose to +29[/td]
[td]win 30 to 59[/td]
[td]win 60+[/td]
[td]total[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Large[/td]
[td]16 (34.8%)[/td]
[td]18 (39.1%)[/td]
[td]12 (26.1%)[/td]
[td]46 (69.7%)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Medium[/td]
[td]5 (71.4%)[/td]
[td]1 (14.3%)[/td]
[td]1 (14.3%)[/td]
[td]7 (10.6%)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Small[/td]
[td]9 (69.3%)[/td]
[td]0 (0.0%)[/td]
[td]4 (30.7%)[/td]
[td]13 (19.7%)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
We can see that Hawthorn's performances are much better on Larger grounds, where as 70% of the time on small/Medium grounds they lose, or win by under 30 points. Something to keep in mind if you are betting against them, or taking the points in about the opposition. It is much better to do it when they play on Small or Medium sized grounds.

I don't subscribe to the theory that many are floating here, that Hawthorn will run with one Ruck, and Roughie will do the relieving work. Hawthorn have pretty much always run 2 Rucks, and I can't see either the lower interchange numbers, or the no more sub Rules changing that. It's just illogical.

Hawthorns draw for 2016, for ground size, looks like this: Red = Interstate, excluding Aurora.

L L S L L M L L L M L S S L B S S L L L L M L

Given both Hawthorn and Roughie perform better on Larger grounds, and they have 7 of their first 9 games, and 8 of their first 11 games on Larger grounds, I would think Roughie is a viable option to start with in 2016.

Spot on re: the rucks. Ceglar will slot in and replace Hale. Ceglar and McEvoy will both spend roughly 50% of the time at center bounces and both are good resting forward. Roughie will pinch hit as always, so basically business as usual. In another thread I was campaigning against McEvoy for the same reason. There's no reason anything should change in the ruck department even though we lost Hale.

I was looking at Roughie as a POD, I don't know if this analysis makes it easier or harder to pick him. Yesterday I drew a line through him but given his start to the season he's now back in my squad for Bennell.

Have you / can you do Taylor Duryea please?

With the changes to ruck scoring system McEvoy is a bad selection regardless.

He averaged something like 100 in the last 9 games of the season. I agree with you, but there's no changes to the scoring (that we know of) in 2016. I think the perception was with Hale gone or perhaps the reduced interchange he might see more TOG or more center bounces. I guess the theory was also that Roughie would spend some more time in the ruck / on ball.

If McEvoy rucked solo (think his final two years at St Kilda) he could easily be a 100+ player. As always, a lot of what happens to ruck scoring is a result of the players around him. With a good midfield an average ruck can suddenly look really good.

Possibly a good reason to consider Zac Smith now that he is at Geelong. Slightly off topic sorry!

Im talking about the scoring changes that came in last season.

His two good seasons at the Saints he managed while being one the worst tap ruckman in the comp.

If you compare 2011 at St Kilda to 2014 at Hawthorn using the same ruck scoring (albeit 22 games in '11 vs 13 games in '14), he averaged an extra:

1.3 Kicks
1 mark
0.4 handballs
1.7 hit outs
1.3 tackles
0.6 inside 50's

That might not seem like much, but we are talking about a difference of 18 points per game. I think it has more to do with him being the primary ruck at St Kilda than the ruck rule changes. Just my reading of it anyway. I don't have the hitout to advantage stats, but his average only dropped by 6 points per game when the new ruck rules came into play in 2015.

 

[Rowsus]

Steve Johnson

Season - 20 games at 84.7 (2014 17 games at 106.6)
Simonds - 7 games at 71.9 (Home wins 4 at 77.0, Home losses 3 at 65.0)
MCG - 5 games at 102.6 (MCG wins 2 at 97.5, MCG losses 3 at 106.0)
Etihad - 4 games at 90.0 (Etihad wins 2 at 82.5, Etihad losses 2 at 97.5)
Away - 4 games at 79.5 (Away wins 2 at 69.5, Away losses 1 at 89.5)
Wins - 10 games at 80.7
Losses - 10 games at 88.7

Of note...
SJ has changed Clubs now, so the figures above are purely academic.
SJ's days of being a good SC player relied on him playing mainly Midfield, and I can't see that happening at GWS. The interesting thing is, he used to be a decent sized FTB, but last season he reversed that trend, and scored higher in losses. My guess is, when Geelong were losing/struggling, they'd throw SJ on the ball to try and get something going. He will get a run now and then at GWS, but I'm not convinced he will score high enough, or play enough games, to warrant taking a risk on him in 2016, even though he his Fwd only now. The other interesting thing to note is, how poor his Interstate figures are, especially as he will be playing a lot more games Interstate now.

 

[Rowsus]

Daniel Rich

Season - 21 games at 80.8 (2014 3 games at 81.0)
Home - 11 games at 92.5 (Home wins 3 at 106.0, Home losses 8 at 87.4)
Metricon - 1 game at 89.0 (Metricon wins 0.0 at 0.0, Metricon losses 1 at 89.0)
Interstate - 9 games at 65.7 (Away wins 1 at 53.0, Away losses 8 at 67.3)
Wins - 4 games at 92.8
Losses - 17 games at 78.0

Of note...
Some still see Rich as a youngish player on the way up, and while this isn't the most efficient way to demonstrate he's not, I still find it interesting. Here is a list of Brisbanes most experienced players, by number of games played:
188 Daniel Merrett
126 Dayne Beams
122 Daniel Rich
121 Mitch Robinson
117 Tom Rockliff
107 Pearce Hanley
That's it, just 6 players with over 100 games experience. As a comparison, Hawthorn have 5 players with over 200 games!
Rich really struggled in Interstate games, as did Brisbane. 9 games at less than 70 isn't inspiring, if you are looking to back him in for a good 2016. Maybe the best way to break Rich's season up is this:
In games where Bisbane won, or lost by 14 or less: 7 games at 97.9
In games where Brisbane lost by 21 or more: 14 games at 72.3
So the question you need to ask yourself if you are considering Rich is, how many games do you think Brisbane will be competitive in, in 2016? Obviously they are in full rebuild mode, as the experience list above shows. Unfortunately, their early draw isn't that favourable, so I wouldn't be backing Rich to do what you want/need early on.
Rnd 1 - WC away, Rnd 2 - Nth home, Rnd 3 - Geel away, Rnd 4 - GC home, Rnd 5 - WBull away,
Rnd 6 - Syd home, Rnd 7 - Port away, Rnd 8 - Coll home, Rnd 9 - Melb away, Rnd 10 - Haw home.

 

[Rowsus]

Steven Motlop

Season - 20 games at 88.1 (2014 15 games at 80.9)
Home - 7 games at 95.6 (Home wins 5 at 91.4, Home losses 2 at 106.0)
MCG - 5 games at 78.6 (MCG wins 2 at 94.0, MCG losses 3 at 68.3)
Etihad - 4 games at 83.3 (Etihad wins 2 at 72.5, Etihad losses 2 at 94.0)
Away - 4 games at 91.8 (Away wins 2 at 106.0, Away losses 2 at 77.5)
Wins - 11 games at 91.1
Losses - 9 games at 84.4

Of note...
6 scores between 115 and 147, but no scores between 99 and 114!!! Add in 7 scores of 70 or less, and you have a player that can burn really brightly, but can also be colder than a mother-in-law's stare! It's the Bennell factor all over again, but at least Bennell's low's are between 70 and 90, not: 26, 39, 41, 49, 64, 68, 70 (ave 51!) type scores! There's nothing you can put it down to, it's just looks like he isn't interested enough sometimes. He will have his hot streak, where he scores 3 120+'s in a 6 or 7 week period, and you'll wish you had him, but I'm pretty sure outside of that, you will be glad you didn't have him. He's not a season long prospect, and it's too hard to guess when that hot streak might come.

 

[Rowsus]

Matt Rosa

Season - 14 games at 77.6 (2014 14 games at 84.0)
Domain - 8 games at 68.6 (Domain wins 6 at 76.5, Domain losses 2 at 45.0)
Away - 6 games at 89.7 (Away wins 3 at 97.7, Away 3 losses at 81.7)
Wins - 9 games at 83.6
Losses - 5 games at 67.0

Of note...
Rosa has changed Clubs, so the information above is largely academic.
Rosa seemingly had a reputation of being vested a lot, but in fact, he only wore one green vest in the home and away season, and no red vests in 2015. He did wear two green vests in the finals, but we're not really interested in those. His vest game saw him score 28 in a 26% TOG in Round 19. The only other game he had under 80% was a 77% game in Round 4, and that happened to be his only 100+ score (142) for the season! He hurt his hamstring at the end of that game, and missed the next 7 games. He got back into the team for one game, but was then dropped again, proof that he was fringe best 22 in the WC line up. Once he made his way back into the team in Round 15, he played out the season without a vest. He's Def/Mid now, which is what has piqued some people's interest. I don't see it myself. He's 29 now, and his best seasons have been 90, 87, 84 and 83. Those are his only 80+ seasons in 11 SC seasons. He's no closer to playing Mid at GC, than he was at WC, and it could even be argued he is further from it, if GC start the season fit. He will be a servicable player for GC, and could even play that Defensive wing role, I just can't see him making it far enough in to the 90's to make him a good pick in 2016. 8 non-vested scores between 37 and 80, out of 14 games played in 2015 would seem to back this up.