Position Ruck Discussion

Will you stick with Gawn $697k?

  • Yes

    Votes: 39 54.2%
  • No - going NicNat instead

    Votes: 9 12.5%
  • No - going someone else

    Votes: 24 33.3%

  • Total voters
    72
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#44
Is Witts worth considering. There is no doubt that on paper Gawndy is the best ruck combo. Witts however ave 110 after the bye last year and has a rd 14 bye which is useful. If Gawn became Witts you get 156k to play with which may allow an upgrade one of your mid pricers to a premium. But you would want to be getting approx 15-20 pts from that upgrade I think.
 

Darkie

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#45
Is Witts worth considering. There is no doubt that on paper Gawndy is the best ruck combo. Witts however ave 110 after the bye last year and has a rd 14 bye which is useful. If Gawn became Witts you get 156k to play with which may allow an upgrade one of your mid pricers to a premium. But you would want to be getting approx 15-20 pts from that upgrade I think.
I brought Witts in late last year (as cover for someone) and he was good. Very tall, quite durable and his scoring is getting up there, albeit it will probably never be in the 130 region over a long string of games.

There have been a couple of articles talking up GC’s improvement. To be honest I’d be skeptical and haven’t read them in detail, but if you thought they were on the up that could help his scoring. In a sense a lot of it starts with the ruck though, so perhaps he’d benefit more by getting 1 or or 2 gun mids in, rather than the team doing better necessarily?

That amount of cash is handy and I think should be theoretically able to generate more like 28 points per game. Often you can’t get that by upgrading a mid pricer (as you may be alluding to - you’re getting them because they’re cheap) but one alternative that can work okay is upgrading good premiums to really good premiums. It doesn’t reduce your risk as much, but it can often allow you get fuller value (in a points on ground sense) from the excess cash.

Might be an option for anyone bullish on GC/Witts but who has some compromised premium picks at this stage.
 

Connoisseur

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#48
B Grundy:
1578616011508.png

1578616207467.png
1578616239872.png


B Grundy avg since 2018: 130.23 from 44 (0/44 below 80, 6/44 below 100, 29/44 120+, 16/44 140+)

2018-2019 Disposals Avg: 21 from 44
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 141.15 from 26 (0/26 below 100, 22/26 120+, 11/26 150+)
SC avg when disposals below 21: 114.44 from 18 (6/18 below 100, 7/18 120+)

Wins: 120.19 from 48 (10/48 below 100, 23/48 120+)
2016: 103.33 from 9
2017: 100.78 from 9
2018: 130.73 from 15
2019: 131.4 from 15

Losses: 105.89 from 36 (17/36 below 100, 10/36 120+)
2016: 89.92 from 12
2017: 93.5 from 10
2018: 129.86 from 7
2019: 127 from 7

Hitouts:
2016: 26.10
2017: 35.7
2018: 38.5
2019: 41.05

Hitouts to Advantage:
2016: 7.43
2017: 9.7
2018: 12.27
2019: NA

HTA Rate%:
2016: 28.47%
2017: 27.17%
2018: 31.88%
2019. NA

As listed in the previous post, I'm unable to find this year's HTA due to it being currently unavailable.
 
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#49
N Naitanui:
View attachment 14339

View attachment 14340

View attachment 14341

8 consecutive seasons of averaging 90+.
5/11 seasons with more than 15 matches.
Last season with TOG greater than 67% was 2015.
Cannot find HTA stats as they are currently unavailable on the AFL website.
Thanks @Connoisseur I think you've talked me out of him... those numbers don't fill me with confidence at all.

That said, to play devils advocate it really depends on how you look at the numbers...

He surely couldn't have less TOG than last year so if (and it's a big if) he can get his TOG back to even 2016 numbers (from 56% to 66%) a 15% increase in game time could represent a 15% increase in scoring (all other things being equal), putting him at 108ppg. His starting price is at a 10% discount this year due to only playing 3 games in H&A last year so would be at a $130k discount based on starting prices and projected output...

For those saying he has never averaged over 108, we need to be mindful that scoring changes for rucks seem to have worked favourably a NicNat type. I think the likelihood of missing games is the kicker for me (even though I really only would need him to get to the bye), but gee it's going to be great to see him back in full swing again!

(if TOG got to 2015 levels, that's a 33.5% increase in TOG, applied to his 2019 SC average would put him at 125ppg, meaning he would be priced with a $220k discount based on starting price and projected output) :eek:
 
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#50
Thanks @Connoisseur I think you've talked me out of him... those numbers don't fill me with confidence at all.

That said, to play devils advocate it really depends on how you look at the numbers...

He surely couldn't have less TOG than last year so if (and it's a big if) he can get his TOG back to even 2016 numbers (from 56% to 66%) a 15% increase in game time could represent a 15% increase in scoring (all other things being equal), putting him at 108ppg. His starting price is at a 10% discount this year due to only playing 3 games in H&A last year so would be at a $130k discount based on starting prices and projected output...

For those saying he has never averaged over 108, we need to be mindful that scoring changes for rucks seem to have worked favourably a NicNat type. I think the likelihood of missing games is the kicker for me (even though I really only would need him to get to the bye), but gee it's going to be great to see him back in full swing again!

(if TOG got to 2015 levels, that's a 33.5% increase in TOG, applied to his 2019 SC average would put him at 125ppg, meaning he would be priced with a $220k discount based on starting price and projected output) :eek:
Honestly, he is probably the best option if you don't want to go for Grundy/Gawn. He scores more points per time on ground but is likely to miss games (playing all 22 once in his career). I do think he's underpriced, but you need to go in knowing it's somewhat risky if you select him, and that he's not going to play 90% game time like you can see Grundy does (I believe Gawn is similar in terms of TOG).
 

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#51
Thanks @Connoisseur I think you've talked me out of him... those numbers don't fill me with confidence at all.

That said, to play devils advocate it really depends on how you look at the numbers...

He surely couldn't have less TOG than last year so if (and it's a big if) he can get his TOG back to even 2016 numbers (from 56% to 66%) a 15% increase in game time could represent a 15% increase in scoring (all other things being equal), putting him at 108ppg. His starting price is at a 10% discount this year due to only playing 3 games in H&A last year so would be at a $130k discount based on starting prices and projected output...

For those saying he has never averaged over 108, we need to be mindful that scoring changes for rucks seem to have worked favourably a NicNat type. I think the likelihood of missing games is the kicker for me (even though I really only would need him to get to the bye), but gee it's going to be great to see him back in full swing again!

(if TOG got to 2015 levels, that's a 33.5% increase in TOG, applied to his 2019 SC average would put him at 125ppg, meaning he would be priced with a $220k discount based on starting price and projected output) :eek:
The addition of T Kelly should also help increase his HTA and HTA rate as well as Nic Nat playing a highly contested game style and receiving sufficient disposals in conjunction with the aforementioned TOG increment. Seems safe for a 95+ avg but as usual the question mark will be surrounding the amount of games played.

Heavily considering Nic Nat and will likely be paired with Grundy if selected.
 
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#52
The addition of T Kelly should also help increase his HTA and HTA rate as well as Nic Nat playing a highly contested game style and receiving sufficient disposals in conjunction with the aforementioned TOG increment. Seems safe for a 95+ avg but as usual the question mark will be surrounding the amount of games played.

Heavily considering Nic Nat and will likely be paired with Grundy if selected.
Hopefully he starts the year about 5 kg lighter than last year
 

Connoisseur

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#54
M Gawn:
1578627975970.png

1578628000863.png
1578628022858.png

Hitouts:
2015: 37.31
2016: 42.18
2018: 45.45
2019: 39.48

Hitouts to Advantage:
2015: 11.92
2016: 14.27
2018: 16.23
2019: NA

HTA Rate%:
2015: 31.96%
2016: 33.84%
2018: 35.70%
2019: NA

Wins: 128.34 from 32 (3/32 below 100, 18/32 120+)
2015: 114 from 4
2016: 128.4 from 10
2018: 133.36 from 14
2019: 125 from 4

Losses: 115.85 from 46 (16/46 below 100, 20/46 120+)
2015: 96.78 from 9
2016: 110.33 from 12
2018: 117.25 from 8
2019: 129.18 from 17
 
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#55
I brought Witts in late last year (as cover for someone) and he was good. Very tall, quite durable and his scoring is getting up there, albeit it will probably never be in the 130 region over a long string of games.

There have been a couple of articles talking up GC’s improvement. To be honest I’d be skeptical and haven’t read them in detail, but if you thought they were on the up that could help his scoring. In a sense a lot of it starts with the ruck though, so perhaps he’d benefit more by getting 1 or or 2 gun mids in, rather than the team doing better necessarily?

That amount of cash is handy and I think should be theoretically able to generate more like 28 points per game. Often you can’t get that by upgrading a mid pricer (as you may be alluding to - you’re getting them because they’re cheap) but one alternative that can work okay is upgrading good premiums to really good premiums. It doesn’t reduce your risk as much, but it can often allow you get fuller value (in a points on ground sense) from the excess cash.

Might be an option for anyone bullish on GC/Witts but who has some compromised premium picks at this stage.
Thanks for the reply Darkie. To give you an idea of where I could go with the cash plus what I already have on the sidelines I could for example with my current team go

B Gibbs to Dunkley or
B Gibbs to Zerrett or
Doedee to Zwilliams or
Doedee to Houston.

All leave a reasonable cash surplus (which I like at season start) from 75k to as much as $153k (Zerrett switch). Other options were available but they had Rd 13 byes and I am trying to avoid getting any more of these players.
 

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#56
Thanks for the reply Darkie. To give you an idea of where I could go with the cash plus what I already have on the sidelines I could for example with my current team go

B Gibbs to Dunkley or
B Gibbs to Zerrett or
Doedee to Zwilliams or
Doedee to Houston.

All leave a reasonable cash surplus (which I like at season start) from 75k to as much as $153k (Zerrett switch). Other options were available but they had Rd 13 byes and I am trying to avoid getting any more of these players.
Perhaps somewhat perversely, I'd probably start Zerrett over Dunkley myself, but Gibbs to Dunkley looks the most appealing upgrade in this scenario.

Dunkley will very likely average more than Zerrett, and I think if I'm considering taking someone like Witts over Gawn/Grundy, I'd want to get a really top scorer on the other line, and ideally a VC/C option as well.
 
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#59
That's great.

Now who's the el cheapo Ruc/Fwd who play the most late games?
Think I might have found him

Charlie Comben Ruc/Fwd Nth Melb.

Had a look at Nth's fixture and there's only 3 games till round 23 where he can't be used as a C loophole with Gawn/Grundy.
Round 9 where The Pies play at 1;10 and the Dees v Crows at 3;20 on the Sunday, so maybe non playing Crow?
Round 12 Where Pies play the Dees on the Monday
and round 19

Lockity Lock for me.
 
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#60
Think I might have found him

Charlie Comben Ruc/Fwd Nth Melb.

Had a look at Nth's fixture and there's only 3 games till round 23 where he can't be used as a C loophole with Gawn/Grundy.
Round 9 where The Pies play at 1;10 and the Dees v Crows at 3;20 on the Sunday, so maybe non playing Crow?
Round 12 Where Pies play the Dees on the Monday
and round 19

Lockity Lock for me.
Yep, mentioned Comben as the best bench option in the second post in the topic.

My three starting rucks are locked in as soon as SC opens, wish the other three lines were so easy.
 
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