Position SC 2021: Forward Discussion

[Leroy]

What are people's plans for Tex? A BE of 95 means he's getting close to peaked in cash if you were looking at selling him for around $190K profit if you got on before Rd 3, or do you consider him a keeper now? I haven't heard any that are planning on trading, possibly like me due to having bigger issues, so guess most people do think he's a keeper now...

I'm strongly considering trading but might give him 1 more round against the Hawks to see if he is worth keeping, as I think I need to correct Bailey/rookies more desperately. Might cost me a few bucks at worst, but shouldn't be too much.

He's just about 90% out for me this week, looked pretty proppy after getting sore midway through the game but there's a few other factors as well:

• I was on this ride to make some quick dollars and jump off. Was happy to keep him while he kept scoring 100s but the likelihood of that continuing looks smaller than it did a week ago.
• I might need to bring in Grundy to avoid another ruck donut and Tex is about the only player I can sensibly use to get there.
• As Buffet says "you never go broke taking a profit". You may run out of trades however

 

[Tamuhawk]

He's just about 90% out for me this week, looked pretty proppy after getting sore midway through the game but there's a few other factors as well:

• I was on this ride to make some quick dollars and jump off. Was happy to keep him while he kept scoring 100s but the likelihood of that continuing looks smaller than it did a week ago.
• I might need to bring in Grundy to avoid another ruck donut and Tex is about the only player I can sensibly use to get there.
• As Buffet says "you never go broke taking a profit". You may run out of trades however

Plays against the hawks this week. Might got 130+!

 

[blue dreamer]

Biggest problem with trading out Tex is who to get in.
Plenty of DEF & MID options, but the cupboard looks bare for FWDs.

Might end up with Dunkley, Ziebell + 4 rookies

That's what I have now,and no upgrade targets in my sights. 😳

 

[Montyjnr]

Biggest problem with trading out Tex is who to get in.
Plenty of DEF & MID options, but the cupboard looks bare for FWDs.

Might end up with Dunkley, Ziebell + 4 rookies

DPP is your friend.

 

[Leroy]

That's what I have now,and no upgrade targets in my sights. 😳

You've got all of Neale, Lloyd, Walsh and Oliver in your team already? I personally think swapping Tex and around $100k for any one of those is a huge win if you can DPP it.

 

[jel]

DPP is your friend.

Not at the moment, all my DPP FWD players are already FWD.

 

[Spifflicator]

That's what I have now,and no upgrade targets in my sights. 😳

It is an indication of how bare the forward line is, that Dale and TFGreene are probably the two best candidates until Danger finishes dropping $150k.

 

[blue dreamer]

You've got all of Neale, Lloyd, Walsh and Oliver in your team already? I personally think swapping Tex and around $100k for any one of those is a huge win if you can DPP it.

Don't have Walsh, happy to keep the others.

 

[freowho]

Zorko vs Sidey.
We know Touk loves Zorko.
Does Touk love Sidey?
We know Sidey attended the most centre bounces for Collingwood on the weekend and can also play outside.
We suspect Zorko benefits from Brisbane's injuries but do we know?
Neither gets a really clean draw to start their campaign but they both look like good value.

 

[Herbie66]

Top 12 Averages after Round 6

Dunkley 129 - injured
Ziebell 127.3
Walker 118.8
Butters 103 - injured
Greene 100
Impey 99.3
Martin 97.3 - suspended / injured
Zorko 94.3
McDonald , T 94.2
Cameron , D 92.5
McKay 92.3
Marshall / Thilthorpe 91

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1386634507722182656

 

[wogitalia]

Zorko vs Sidey.
We know Touk loves Zorko.
Does Touk love Sidey?
We know Sidey attended the most centre bounces for Collingwood on the weekend and can also play outside.
We suspect Zorko benefits from Brisbane's injuries but do we know?
Neither gets a really clean draw to start their campaign but they both look like good value.

FWIW Touk has tagged about once (Neale) in the last 18 months and is probably closer to being tagged than tagging at this point (he was tagged after Q1).

Zorko has been a super consistent scorer who also has had great durability, although that did come under challenge last year with the calf issues that are a constant threat to the older players.

Sidebottom has also been pretty consistent in his scoring over the last decade and mostly durable, though was really bad last year after a 3 year period he was great. To be fair last year was largely suspension/quitting on the team/hubs but with the way the team is playing this year that at least has to be questioned as possible again.

On Zorko... He's a notorious slow starter, over the last 4 seasons his first half of season averages are 110, 91, 99 and 88 compared to second half averages of 111, 101, 114 and 110, that's a noteworthy difference in the last 3 years. Breaking it down further into 3rds it has been the middle third that has been his best by a pretty considerable margin and his final third has been the 2nd best in every season also. I'm not saying he's about to launch for sure but based on his last 4 years, it would be a pretty damn solid bet. Poor preseason is a positive explanation for a slowish start but he should be coming good and the Neale injury presents opportunity for more involvement. It's worth noting though that poor preseasons are a high level indicator of future injuries so he's definitely got a couple of red flags on that front but at this point I'd love to know of a forward who doesn't have an issue at least that big!

Sidebottom I've ignored last year as the sample isn't significant, but his H1 and H2 are also all supportive to stronger H2 over the last 3 years. Only 2017 does he present an outlier third of the season (middle), with 2018 almost identical and 2019 slightly better in T3 than the other two at almost identical. Given his lack of preseason and calf issues he kind of presents the exact same equation as Zorko.

Last but not least, the eye test this season says Zorko has been a fair bit better but Sidey has also been visibly played in peripheral roles until the weekend. Now the question is how to read Sidey's increased role on the weekend, is it that he is finally fit and will continue in it, was it a desperate attempt by Buckley on their biggest stage to not be embarrassed and a one off as he continues to experiment with bad players such as Greenwood, Thomas and Sier in the guts hoping to find a miracle improvement out of "old" guys who've never been good? Personally this is one of those scenarios where I'd happily pay a bit more for a guy for a couple weeks more information just to know and thus lean Zorko where I know his current role is decent and there is a very real prospect of a better role.

So the tl;dr version: Zorko looks to be worth the premium on Sidey right now and, imo, the best premium target but isn't without his own red flags being durability. Sidey is worth an extra week or two to ascertain his role change this week is permanent and that he's back.

 

[SuchIsLife]

FWIW Touk has tagged about once (Neale) in the last 18 months and is probably closer to being tagged than tagging at this point (he was tagged after Q1).

Zorko has been a super consistent scorer who also has had great durability, although that did come under challenge last year with the calf issues that are a constant threat to the older players.

Sidebottom has also been pretty consistent in his scoring over the last decade and mostly durable, though was really bad last year after a 3 year period he was great. To be fair last year was largely suspension/quitting on the team/hubs but with the way the team is playing this year that at least has to be questioned as possible again.

On Zorko... He's a notorious slow starter, over the last 4 seasons his first half of season averages are 110, 91, 99 and 88 compared to second half averages of 111, 101, 114 and 110, that's a noteworthy difference in the last 3 years. Breaking it down further into 3rds it has been the middle third that has been his best by a pretty considerable margin and his final third has been the 2nd best in every season also. I'm not saying he's about to launch for sure but based on his last 4 years, it would be a pretty damn solid bet. Poor preseason is a positive explanation for a slowish start but he should be coming good and the Neale injury presents opportunity for more involvement. It's worth noting though that poor preseasons are a high level indicator of future injuries so he's definitely got a couple of red flags on that front but at this point I'd love to know of a forward who doesn't have an issue at least that big!

Sidebottom I've ignored last year as the sample isn't significant, but his H1 and H2 are also all supportive to stronger H2 over the last 3 years. Only 2017 does he present an outlier third of the season (middle), with 2018 almost identical and 2019 slightly better in T3 than the other two at almost identical. Given his lack of preseason and calf issues he kind of presents the exact same equation as Zorko.

Last but not least, the eye test this season says Zorko has been a fair bit better but Sidey has also been visibly played in peripheral roles until the weekend. Now the question is how to read Sidey's increased role on the weekend, is it that he is finally fit and will continue in it, was it a desperate attempt by Buckley on their biggest stage to not be embarrassed and a one off as he continues to experiment with bad players such as Greenwood, Thomas and Sier in the guts hoping to find a miracle improvement out of "old" guys who've never been good? Personally this is one of those scenarios where I'd happily pay a bit more for a guy for a couple weeks more information just to know and thus lean Zorko where I know his current role is decent and there is a very real prospect of a better role.

So the tl;dr version: Zorko looks to be worth the premium on Sidey right now and, imo, the best premium target but isn't without his own red flags being durability. Sidey is worth an extra week or two to ascertain his role change this week is permanent and that he's back.

Keep in mind Sidebottom missed most of his games last season through suspension/COVID issues and not injury.

I'm on board for both, order is tricky. But atm prefer Sidey this week and Zorko next. Mostly due to Brisbane playing a tough opponent in port, potential tags in the future with Zorko being the only damaging inside mid left, and uncertain midfield time allocation with J Berry and potentially Mathieson in.

 

[wogitalia]

Keep in mind Sidebottom missed most of his games last season through suspension/COVID issues and not injury.

I'm on board for both, order is tricky. But atm prefer Sidey this week and Zorko next. Mostly due to Brisbane playing a tough opponent in port, potential tags in the future with Zorko being the only damaging inside mid left, and uncertain midfield time allocation with J Berry and potentially Mathieson in.

Sidey this week is the aggressive and cash smart play, reality is if you think both are premiums at years end then take the cheaper one for sure.

My only issue with Sidey is trying to reconcile his role to the bad preseason and slowly coming back compared to Buckley just being a loose cannon with roles this year. I don't know if I've ever seen a team take such a completely unsettled and unsettling approach to their midfield.

By my account he's given Sier, Thomas, Elliott, Greenwood, Sidey, Daicos, De Goey and the Browns somewhere in the half to a game and a half each in a midfield role sporadically and utterly randomly across the season and expected them to just pick up and run with it (Sidey did at least on Sunday), while giving Crisp a slightly larger but still utterly random midfield allocation. Really the only constant has been Adams (when fit) and Pendles and the rest has felt like he's just got a 10 sided die up there with each players name on it to pick who will play midfield at any moment.

Personally I think the group should be pretty obvious (Pendles, Crisp, Sidey, Adams, De Goey and Daicos) but it's got to a huge part of Grundy's struggles as well that he has zero chemistry with anyone because it changes every 30 seconds and every club in the world knows to restrict Pendles meaning those other guys should be the targets but have no chemistry at all.

Buckley has really been a very poor coach, it seems more and more that each time he's been successful it's been on the back of strong assistants and when they leave he struggles again before they find good ones again because the club can afford to get the best in. Maybe I just want him to get fired so he can go back into the commentary box but the Pies to me are the only team that rivals GWS over the past few years for feeling handcuffed by the coach and I honestly feel like they've been comparable to Sydney with Longmire through the mid 2010s when they should have had a couple of flags and walked away with nothing. Now the off field guys that cooked the cap have hurt them but they still are better than they've played.

 

[SuchIsLife]

Sidey this week is the aggressive and cash smart play, reality is if you think both are premiums at years end then take the cheaper one for sure.

My only issue with Sidey is trying to reconcile his role to the bad preseason and slowly coming back compared to Buckley just being a loose cannon with roles this year. I don't know if I've ever seen a team take such a completely unsettled and unsettling approach to their midfield.

By my account he's given Sier, Thomas, Elliott, Greenwood, Sidey, Daicos, De Goey and the Browns somewhere in the half to a game and a half each in a midfield role sporadically and utterly randomly across the season and expected them to just pick up and run with it (Sidey did at least on Sunday), while giving Crisp a slightly larger but still utterly random midfield allocation. Really the only constant has been Adams (when fit) and Pendles and the rest has felt like he's just got a 10 sided die up there with each players name on it to pick who will play midfield at any moment.

Personally I think the group should be pretty obvious (Pendles, Crisp, Sidey, Adams, De Goey and Daicos) but it's got to a huge part of Grundy's struggles as well that he has zero chemistry with anyone because it changes every 30 seconds and every club in the world knows to restrict Pendles meaning those other guys should be the targets but have no chemistry at all.

Buckley has really been a very poor coach, it seems more and more that each time he's been successful it's been on the back of strong assistants and when they leave he struggles again before they find good ones again because the club can afford to get the best in. Maybe I just want him to get fired so he can go back into the commentary box but the Pies to me are the only team that rivals GWS over the past few years for feeling handcuffed by the coach and I honestly feel like they've been comparable to Sydney with Longmire through the mid 2010s when they should have had a couple of flags and walked away with nothing. Now the off field guys that cooked the cap have hurt them but they still are better than they've played.

I actually had Zorko & Sidey in last week planned but went with Grundy & Macrae instead which costed me 15-20 points.

100% agree on Bucks being a terrible coach. At this point he's just guessing as to our ideal midfield group when he's had all summer to prepare. Crisp not playing permanent midfield is beyond me. Maynard should also be switched to the middle, perfect matchup for those Dusty/Bont/Petracca times with her versatility as mid/def. Not sure why we are so desperate to play our AA CHB out of form but whatever...

I'm quite bullish on Sidebottom mainly because excluding the HBs, we have 3 players we want the ball in hand out of literally everyone else (Sidebottom, Pendles, Daicos). We have no bail out target via Cox on a wing with pack marks or anything. We may get smashed in disposals (300 vs 400 for example), but Sidebottom will still get his 25, just because there's noone else to pass to from our back half to what lies ahead.

 

[SuchIsLife]

Sidey this week is the aggressive and cash smart play, reality is if you think both are premiums at years end then take the cheaper one for sure.

My only issue with Sidey is trying to reconcile his role to the bad preseason and slowly coming back compared to Buckley just being a loose cannon with roles this year. I don't know if I've ever seen a team take such a completely unsettled and unsettling approach to their midfield.

By my account he's given Sier, Thomas, Elliott, Greenwood, Sidey, Daicos, De Goey and the Browns somewhere in the half to a game and a half each in a midfield role sporadically and utterly randomly across the season and expected them to just pick up and run with it (Sidey did at least on Sunday), while giving Crisp a slightly larger but still utterly random midfield allocation. Really the only constant has been Adams (when fit) and Pendles and the rest has felt like he's just got a 10 sided die up there with each players name on it to pick who will play midfield at any moment.

Personally I think the group should be pretty obvious (Pendles, Crisp, Sidey, Adams, De Goey and Daicos) but it's got to a huge part of Grundy's struggles as well that he has zero chemistry with anyone because it changes every 30 seconds and every club in the world knows to restrict Pendles meaning those other guys should be the targets but have no chemistry at all.

Buckley has really been a very poor coach, it seems more and more that each time he's been successful it's been on the back of strong assistants and when they leave he struggles again before they find good ones again because the club can afford to get the best in. Maybe I just want him to get fired so he can go back into the commentary box but the Pies to me are the only team that rivals GWS over the past few years for feeling handcuffed by the coach and I honestly feel like they've been comparable to Sydney with Longmire through the mid 2010s when they should have had a couple of flags and walked away with nothing. Now the off field guys that cooked the cap have hurt them but they still are better than they've played.

Speaking of which, what are your thoughts on Robertson vs Zorko vs Oliver in terms of urgency?

 

[wogitalia]

Speaking of which, what are your thoughts on Robertson vs Zorko vs Oliver in terms of urgency?

Well Robertson is now or never. If you want him it has to be this week. I'd say there is a solid case he's the best rookie option, especially if you're needing someone to play despite the premium on Macrae and even Farrar and Bosenvulagi who are probably the top 3. Highmore also would at least be a chance if named though the JS is clearly not good given some of the genuine potatoes they've played ahead of him the last few weeks (Long, Joyce and McKenzie)

Oliver is capable of smashing his BE of 122 but realistically he's not likely to and you can more likely than not get him for a similar amount in the next month. He does have North though who certainly can leak points. I expect he will get Turner though so there's certainly at least a chance he is held a bit quieter.

Zorko at an 83 BE should hit it and should hit it by a bit at least you'd hope, so he's more urgent imo. At a 90 he'd go up about 3k though and he has Port so that would be a solid score.

Probably the main reason I'd go Oliver ahead of Zorko is if you're a lot thinner in the midfield rookies than forwards. Basically should be trying to get a McNeil/Scott/Rowe/Jones type off the field if possible so whatever the weakest rookie you can replace on field is probably the position to go for. If this isn't the issue, lower BE guy probably makes more sense.

 

[freowho]

I don't think Sidey and Zorko have to do much given the forward situation. It is just a question of who gets a good start. If Sidey doesn't have to worry about Touk then he looks better. Zorko could have 3 bad weeks coming up.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

I don't think Sidey and Zorko have to do much given the forward situation. It is just a question of who gets a good start. If Sidey doesn't have to worry about Touk then he looks better. Zorko could have 3 bad weeks coming up.

Average vs. Next 3 Opponents:
104.5 vs. PTA from 11
100.1 vs. FRE from 9
100.4 vs. GCS from 16

Last 3 Scores vs. Next 3 Opponents:
DNP, 105, 122 vs. PTA
107, 117, 97 vs. FRE
159, 76, 142 vs. GCS

Not too shabby. Granted no Neale, whether he sees some more attention or not who knows, but with that comes more opportunity and responsibility for Zorko, Berry possibly missing as well. Do teams start putting more time into McCluggage rather than Zorko anyway ?

 

[Wheedus]

McCluggage's delivery into forward 50 has been elite this year. Perfect candidate for a tag.

Just on Sidey, I was at the game on Sunday and watched him pretty closely. He was playing like a man possessed and at times, I thought he was in the running for the medal. One comment I would make is he was playing a run-with role. Pretty much started on Merrett at every centre bounce in the first half and focussed pretty intently on stopping him getting near the ball. The positive was he was getting plenty of it himself so it wasn't a purely negative role. He switched to Parish later in the game, which again suggests Bucks was using him to run with the best opposition midfielder. My biggest concern with Sidey is age / injury risk. Same can be said for Zorko and I'm reluctant to pick either TBH.

I like Marshall but would prefer to wait the week to get a price drop and get another look at him. Might just downgrade Dunks for the week.