Analysis SCS Predicted Averages 2025

Ironhawk

Ironhawk

#21
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#21
Quick summary of the number of responses so far:

Part 1: 28
Parts 2 and 3: 18
Parts 4 and 5: 16

Thanks to everyone that has taken the time to fill out your responses.

I haven't looked in any further depth than that as to how many answers each person filled out, but it's looking promising we may get some reasonable data from this. That looks to be a significant amount who just did Part 1 and no others though.

I'll likely close the forms some time on the evening of Friday 14th, in 9 days from now, tally everything and post the results shortly after. It seems a good response rate so far, but it would be really useful having at least 20-25 responses per player, and the more the better.
 
randomcliche

randomcliche

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#23
Done. Hope I haven't skewed it too much!


What would be super interesting is to know for each respondent, mean +/- from SC mean, and SD from SC mean.
 
D

donnybuang

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#27
Ironhawk said:
Quick summary of the number of responses so far:

Part 1: 28
Parts 2 and 3: 18
Parts 4 and 5: 16

Thanks to everyone that has taken the time to fill out your responses.

I haven't looked in any further depth than that as to how many answers each person filled out, but it's looking promising we may get some reasonable data from this. That looks to be a significant amount who just did Part 1 and no others though.

I'll likely close the forms some time on the evening of Friday 14th, in 9 days from now, tally everything and post the results shortly after. It seems a good response rate so far, but it would be really useful having at least 20-25 responses per player, and the more the better.
Click to expand...
I did 4 and 5 first, just in case I didn't get it all done, because I figured the incomplete would trend like this above 😅
 
Ironhawk

Ironhawk

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#31
I really need to enter my own selections here. I'll give it a go tonight.

Just a reminder I will be closing these forms on Friday evening, so time is running out. It would be really good to get a few more responses though, so still worth everyone completing this.
 
Ironhawk

Ironhawk

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#33
I had a look at the form response rate tonight, and the 5 parts have between 28 and 36 responses. I'm confident that should give some reasonable data for people to look over this weekend, even after filtering out any blanks / other bad data.

Less than two days to enter your responses if you haven't already. Thank you very much to those who have responded already.
 
Ironhawk

Ironhawk

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#34
I took a sneak peak at one part to see how the data was looking. There seems to be quite a range of responses for the players I looked at, varying by anywhere from about a 15 point range to a 40 point range depending on the player, however that's not necessarily a bad thing. The mean, median and usually the mode all seem relatively consistent with each other. I'm not heavily into stats, and how to analyse them, however it seems a good representative result to me - I'm happy it'll be worthwhile data.

I think from this quick skim this might identify a few players who are not really being as strongly considered as they should (and also may highlight some who maybe should be avoided). I thought I may have been a bit optimistic with a couple of my projections based on previous years for example, but it looks like I wasn't the only one - we could all be wrong of course. I'd be fascinated to see how our expected averages compare to what each player is currently priced at.

Definitely looking forward to what some of our stats gurus can make of these results when available in a few days time.
 
Manikato1

Manikato1

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#35
I also wonder if some people "self censor". I know I do at the top end of the range. If I think a high end mid could go 116 at his best, when I consider selecting them I tend to be a bit conservative and probably stick them at 114. Meanwhile I tend to be a bit more optimistic with lower value priced mid pricers. If a guy priced at 80 could go 95, I am more inclined to think he will and do calculations at that score.
 
Rowsus

Rowsus

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#36
Ironhawk said:
I took a sneak peak at one part to see how the data was looking. There seems to be quite a range of responses for the players I looked at, varying by anywhere from about a 15 point range to a 40 point range depending on the player, however that's not necessarily a bad thing. The mean, median and usually the mode all seem relatively consistent with each other. I'm not heavily into stats, and how to analyse them, however it seems a good representative result to me - I'm happy it'll be worthwhile data.

I think from this quick skim this might identify a few players who are not really being as strongly considered as they should (and also may highlight some who maybe should be avoided). I thought I may have been a bit optimistic with a couple of my projections based on previous years for example, but it looks like I wasn't the only one - we could all be wrong of course. I'd be fascinated to see how our expected averages compare to what each player is currently priced at.

Definitely looking forward to what some of our stats gurus can make of these results when available in a few days time.
Click to expand...
Some non-maths minded people might be wondering the difference between these 3 things (mean, median and mode):

Say 11 people submitted points for Charlie Knackers, and their submissions were:
92, 94, 96, 97, 100, 100, 100, 103, 104, 106, 108

The mean is derived by adding them up, and dividing by the number of submissions = 1,100/11 = 100
The median is derived by crossing off numbers from each end until there is 1 number left.
92, 94, 96, 97, 100, 100, 100, 103, 104, 106, 108 = 100
The mode is the most frequently occuring number in a set of data. 92, 94, 96, 97, 100, 100, 100, 103, 104, 106, 108 = 100
 
H

HD Supercoach

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#37
Rowsus said:
Some non-maths minded people might be wondering the difference between these 3 things (mean, median and mode):

Say 11 people submitted points for Charlie Knackers, and their submissions were:
92, 94, 96, 97, 100, 100, 100, 103, 104, 106, 108

The mean is derived by adding them up, and dividing by the number of submissions = 1,100/11 = 100
The median is derived by crossing off numbers from each end until there is 1 number left.
92, 94, 96, 97, 100, 100, 100, 103, 104, 106, 108 = 100
The mode is the most frequently occuring number in a set of data. 92, 94, 96, 97, 100, 100, 100, 103, 104, 106, 108 = 100
Click to expand...
So you’re saying my speculative mid pricer is going to average a 100 whichever way you calculate it?! I like it!
 
Peter56

Peter56

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#38
Rowsus said:
Some non-maths minded people might be wondering the difference between these 3 things (mean, median and mode):

Say 11 people submitted points for Charlie Knackers, and their submissions were:
92, 94, 96, 97, 100, 100, 100, 103, 104, 106, 108

The mean is derived by adding them up, and dividing by the number of submissions = 1,100/11 = 100
The median is derived by crossing off numbers from each end until there is 1 number left.
92, 94, 96, 97, 100, 100, 100, 103, 104, 106, 108 = 100
The mode is the most frequently occuring number in a set of data. 92, 94, 96, 97, 100, 100, 100, 103, 104, 106, 108 = 100
Click to expand...
Thats just playing with numbers 😂
 
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