Strategy 2023: Player X v Player Y
- Thread starter Leroy
- Start date
Thanks for the observations. Thinking Keays is still the go. Looking at his ave past two seasons if he is even to get remotely close to retaining that ave he will be scoring over a ton every week. Even a season ave of 95 sees him still over the ton every week till seasons end. Cogs has dropped off a bit and looks to be meandering towards another high 90 season but with plenty of sub 90 scores tossed in before rd 23.
I’ll put a vote in for Cogs.
I think the mean reversion argument makes most sense when conditions basically haven’t changed year on year, but a player has had a short-running form dip, or maybe been carrying something. When conditions have changed year on year, it seems higher risk … it kind of implies that the worse a player has done so far, the better they’ll do from now on, which I probably struggle with.
It looks to me like Keays’ recent high scoring is heavily dependent on role. In the last three seasons, he’s had 79% CBAs, then 69% (was higher, before dropping off) and now 30%. His CBAs were >50% in R11-15, and he tonned up every game. I think it would be close to impossible for his season average CBAs to get back to what he averaged in 2021/22, so I wouldn’t expect his scoring this year to reflect his output in those years either.
If you think he keeps the CBAs (noting he only had 3% last game), Keays looks like a decent pickup. If in any doubt on that, I’d happily take Cogs instead. He’s the same price, same position and hasn’t had a game below 68% CBAs.
I think the mean reversion argument makes most sense when conditions basically haven’t changed year on year, but a player has had a short-running form dip, or maybe been carrying something. When conditions have changed year on year, it seems higher risk … it kind of implies that the worse a player has done so far, the better they’ll do from now on, which I probably struggle with.
It looks to me like Keays’ recent high scoring is heavily dependent on role. In the last three seasons, he’s had 79% CBAs, then 69% (was higher, before dropping off) and now 30%. His CBAs were >50% in R11-15, and he tonned up every game. I think it would be close to impossible for his season average CBAs to get back to what he averaged in 2021/22, so I wouldn’t expect his scoring this year to reflect his output in those years either.
If you think he keeps the CBAs (noting he only had 3% last game), Keays looks like a decent pickup. If in any doubt on that, I’d happily take Cogs instead. He’s the same price, same position and hasn’t had a game below 68% CBAs.
